Dr Sekhar Basu takes charge as Chairman, AEC and Secretary, DAE

Dr Sekhar Basu takes charge as Chairman, AEC and Secretary, DAE

Dr. Ratan Kumar Sinha, Chairman, Atomic Energy Commission and Secretary to Government of India, Department of Atomic Energy, remitted his office on Friday, October 23, 2015 on superannuation after about 42 years of distinguished service in the Department. Dr. Sekhar Basu, Director, BARC took the charge from Dr. R. K. Sinha in a simple ceremony held at the Headquarters of the Department in Mumbai.

             Dr. Sinha, who led the Department for about three and a half years, while relinquishing office said that Department of Atomic Energy has a special mandate that bridges range of activities from basic science to final deliveries in multiple dimensions for growth of the nation. He said that he has great satisfaction in being a part of this department for the last 42 years and for having been witness to many historical developments of far reaching impacts. He further said, “Today, while I am relinquishing office, I go with full confidence that the DAE will continue to move further to fulfil its mandated deliveries to meet the progressively increasing needs of the country. I wish my successor Dr. Sekhar Basu my very best wishes for a successful tenure as Chairman, AEC and Secretary DAE”.

Dr. Basu while thanking Dr. Ratan Kumar Sinha, assured that he will do his best to contribute to the advancement of science and to meet the societal objectives to serve the nation. He also pointed out that benefits of Atomic Energy are multifaceted and its contribution to health, food and water security are as important as energy security. He said, he will give top priority towards the completion of our ongoing projects including augmentation of domestic production of uranium.

NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS), which will be the most powerful rocket ever built and the first vehicle designed to meet the challenges of the journey to Mars, has completed all steps needed to clear a critical design review. This is the first time in almost 40 years that a NASA human-rated rocket has cleared a critical design review (CDR). “We’ve nailed down the design of SLS, we’ve successfully completed the first round of testing of the rocket’s engines and boosters, and all the major components for the first flight are now in production,” said Bill Hill, deputy associate administrator of NASA’s Exploration Systems Development Division in US. “There have been challenges, and there will be more ahead, but this review gives us confidence that we are on the right track for the first flight of SLS and using it to extend permanent human presence into deep space,” Mr. Hill said. The CDR examined the first of three configurations planned for the rocket, referred to as SLS Block 1. The Block 1 configuration will have a minimum 70-metric-ton lift capability and be powered by twin boosters and four RS-25 engines. The next planned upgrade of SLS, Block 1B, would use a more powerful exploration upper stage for more ambitious missions with a 105-metric-ton lift capacity. Block 2 will add a pair of advanced solid or liquid propellant boosters to provide a 130-metric-ton lift capacity. In each configuration, SLS will continue to use the same core stage and four RS-25 engines. The SLS Programme completed the review in July, in conjunction with a separate review by the Standing Review Board, which is composed of seasoned experts from NASA and industry who are independent of the programme. Throughout the course of 11 weeks, 13 teams — made up of senior engineers and aerospace experts across the agency and industry — reviewed more than 1,000 SLS documents and more than 150 GB of data as part of the comprehensive assessment process at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Centre, where SLS is managed for the agency. The Standing Review Board reviewed and assessed the programme’s readiness and confirmed the technical effort is on track to complete system development and meet performance requirements on budget and on schedule. The programme briefed the results of the review in October to the Agency Program Management Council, led by NASA Associate Administrator Robert Lightfoot, as the final step in the CDR process. This review is the last of four reviews that examine concepts and designs. The next step for the programme is design certification, which will take place in 2017 after manufacturing, integration and testing is complete. Critical design reviews for the individual SLS elements of the core stage, boosters and engines were completed successfully as part of this milestone.

NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS), which will be the most powerful rocket ever built and the first vehicle designed to meet the challenges of the journey to Mars, has completed all steps needed to clear a critical design review.

This is the first time in almost 40 years that a NASA human-rated rocket has cleared a critical design review (CDR).

“We’ve nailed down the design of SLS, we’ve successfully completed the first round of testing of the rocket’s engines and boosters, and all the major components for the first flight are now in production,” said Bill Hill, deputy associate administrator of NASA’s Exploration Systems Development Division in US.

“There have been challenges, and there will be more ahead, but this review gives us confidence that we are on the right track for the first flight of SLS and using it to extend permanent human presence into deep space,” Mr. Hill said.

The CDR examined the first of three configurations planned for the rocket, referred to as SLS Block 1.

The Block 1 configuration will have a minimum 70-metric-ton lift capability and be powered by twin boosters and four RS-25 engines.

The next planned upgrade of SLS, Block 1B, would use a more powerful exploration upper stage for more ambitious missions with a 105-metric-ton lift capacity.

Block 2 will add a pair of advanced solid or liquid propellant boosters to provide a 130-metric-ton lift capacity.

In each configuration, SLS will continue to use the same core stage and four RS-25 engines.

The SLS Programme completed the review in July, in conjunction with a separate review by the Standing Review Board, which is composed of seasoned experts from NASA and industry who are independent of the programme.

Throughout the course of 11 weeks, 13 teams — made up of senior engineers and aerospace experts across the agency and industry — reviewed more than 1,000 SLS documents and more than 150 GB of data as part of the comprehensive assessment process at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Centre, where SLS is managed for the agency.

The Standing Review Board reviewed and assessed the programme’s readiness and confirmed the technical effort is on track to complete system development and meet performance requirements on budget and on schedule.

The programme briefed the results of the review in October to the Agency Program Management Council, led by NASA Associate Administrator Robert Lightfoot, as the final step in the CDR process.

This review is the last of four reviews that examine concepts and designs. The next step for the programme is design certification, which will take place in 2017 after manufacturing, integration and testing is complete.

Critical design reviews for the individual SLS elements of the core stage, boosters and engines were completed successfully as part of this milestone.

Sex ratio at birth slips below 900

The latest figures compiled by the government on registration of births and deaths have presented a dismal picture of sex ratio at birth as it has slipped below 900 for the first time in last three years.

According to ‘Annual Report on Vital Statistics of India based on Civil Registration System-2013’, the sex ratio at birth based on registered events was 898 in 2013, which is a drop from 908 in 2012 and 909 in 2011.

The highest birth sex ratio has been reported from Tripura (1,055) followed by Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh (978), Daman and Diu (961) and Sikkim (956).

The lowest sex ratio has been reported by Manipur (700) followed by Haryana (840). “The sex ratio at birth for the country ranges from 872 to 909 over the years 2004-2013.

Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Sikkim have the distinction of being the only major states reporting favourable sex ratio at birth in last so many years,” the report said.

Karnataka’s slip

Karnataka had a sex ratio above 1,000 for consecutive years from 2007 but slipped below the four-digit mark in the past three years.

While it had touched the highest of 1,047 in 2008, it had slipped to 971 in 2012 and 943 in 2013.

The child sex ratio (0-6 years), according to Census 2011, is 927. Poor registration of females in majority of the bigger states could be one reason for the dismal numbers.

Registration increases

According to the report, the registration of births and deaths have shown an increasing trend with latest figures showing that 2.24 crore births and 60.86 lakh deaths getting into official records in 2013, a rise from 2.21 crore and 58.50 lakh, respectively, in 2012.

The registration of births has increased from 84.5 per cent of the estimated births in 2012 to 85.5 per cent in 2013 while that of death rose from 69.3 per cent to 70.9 per cent.
 If one excludes two highly populous and poorly performing states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, the level of registration of births is 96.8 per cent.

The improvement in the numbers could be gauged if one compares the figures in 1982 when 84 lakh births were registered compared to 2.24 crore in 2013.

“The share of registered births to total estimated births is increasing year by year which shows a gradual improvement in birth registration,” the report said.

Thirteen among 20 major states, including Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal—have crossed 90 per cent level of registration of births.

The number of registered deaths, on the other hand, has more than doubled in the year 2013 (60.86 lakh) to 1982 (25 lakh). Karnataka had registered 10.68 lakh births in 2013, down from 11.24 lakh in the previous year while it recorded 4.13 lakh deaths in 2013 as against 4.07 lakh in 2012.

WHO's Global Road Safety Report-2015

 The data on road crashes in the country is highly fragmented, barring states of Punjab and Tamil Nadu which have a good Road Accident Data Management System.

Yet, India stands out miserably in the latest World Health Organisation's (WHO) "Global Road Safety Report-2015" with an estimated 2,07,551 deaths on roads.
In 2014, India reported 137,572 deaths, since accidental deaths are clubbed with suicides, totalling to 141,526 deaths, said SafeLife Foundation, an NGO that analysed the India-specific findings of the WHO report.

Over 1.20 million people perish on the world's roads annually, making it a leading cause of deaths, especially in low and middle-income countries and entailing a loss of almost three percent of  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to their economies.

While the number of road traffic fatalities have remained nearly constant, given a four percent increase in global population and 16 percent increase in motorisation, road safety efforts in the past three years have saved human lives.
But in India, there has been a continuous rise in road accident deaths since 2007 -- with a brief annual decline in 2012. The 2014 data stood at 141,526, marking a three percent increase over 2013.

Road deaths in low and middle-income countries are more than double of those in developed countries.

The noteworthy aspect is that 90 percent of the road deaths occurred in the underdeveloped or developing countries, housing 84 percent of the global population but having only 54 percent of the world's vehicles.
In the same context, of the 68 countries which saw a rise in road traffic deaths since 2010, 84 percent are in the low and middle-income group countries.

Similarly, 79 countries reporting a decline in road traffic deaths include 56 percent which are in the low and middle-income group countries -- making it clear that the risk of dying in road accident remains highest in the underdeveloped/developing nations.

Almost half of all the road accident deaths are among the vulnerable users -- two-wheeler, cycles or pedestrians, with WHO recommending more attention to be paid to the needs of the pedestrians and cyclists.

India has no laws protecting these (pedestrians/cyclists) who account for more than one-third of all road accident deaths in the country.

The WHO estimates that half a million lives could be saved each year in developing countries by creating an efficient emergency system to tackle road accident casualties.

While India boasts of a multiple access numbers for emergencies, only a few are reliable, compared to 116 countries that have a universal access number to activate emergency services response.
Moreover, after a road crash in developing countries like India, the local community leaders, police or drivers, if trained in basic injury care and coordination of transporting the victims to a hospital can fulfil the role of saviours in the absence absence of professional experts or medicos.

The SaveLife Foundation's Chief Executive Officer Piyush Tewari also endorsed WHO recommendation that health-care staff must be trained in emergency care and there is no legislation ensuring efficient emergency care and protection to bystanders rendering help to the victims.

Added to this is the lack of robust data on road traffic fatalities in most countries, though many submit vital registration date to the WHO on all causes of deaths, including many which now use hospital data as the basis for their figures.

The WHO feels that coordination of road safety efforts across multiple sectors and stakeholders is critical for success and currently 167 countries, compared to 162 in 2010, have an agency that leads the initiative.

India has no lead agency to effectively execute road safety strategies despite most states having their own Road Safety Policies.

Regarding legislation and road user behaviour, 17 countries have laws relating to one or more of five key behavioural risk factors, representing 409 million or 5.7 percent of the world population.

These are -- speed limits, use of motorcycle helmets, using seat belts, reducing drunken driving and child restraint use in which India meets the WHO criteria only pertaining to seat belts usage.

Compulsory exit

The idea of 'Minimum Government, Maximum Governance' has been in circulation for a while, especially in the wake of the BJP government's pledge to ensure that the concept attains fruition across the country. Any attempt to improve is incomplete without a matching effort to streamline the permanent executive, pre-eminently the civil services. But India's proverbial steel frame has allegedly become rusted and rickety, and this is largely because of its failure to adjust to the changing praxis of development.

Even if policy changes are made with corresponding initiatives, all of them would not be effective if the implementing agencies are not adequately and suitably equipped to respond to the challenges. As the quality of governance depends on the quality of its executive arm, it is here that the bureaucracy is alleged to have performed short of expectations. Governments at the Centre and in the states have attempted periodic administrative reforms. As part of such initiatives to enhance the standard of public service, weeding out of the inefficient or venal bureaucrats has been high on the agenda. Guidelines are reported to have been issued by the Centre to the Ministries and departments to "compulsorily retire people who don't meet required standards of work or probity".

Compulsory retirement, when legally challenged, has in principle been approved by the Supreme Court. In a 1980 judgment, it ruled that compulsory retirement "is undoubtedly in public interest and is not passed by way of punishment". This was later reinforced by a cognate judgment supporting the idea of dropping an official in public interest.

Therefore, at least on paper, the bureaucracy does not have a secure job. The previous government at the Centre even amended the All India Service Rules to provide for compulsory retirement of below-par bureaucrats just after 15 years of service in keeping with the Sixth Pay Commission's recommendation. However, one has not known of any compulsory retirement. Many observers do find compulsory retirement to be a desirable tool in ensuring the efficacy and efficiency of the civil service. In any system of governance, performance is often determined by the set of incentives provided to the people who exercise power. However, many feel that in a developing country like India, where bureaucrats wield enormous power, a guaranteed job provides the wrong incentive.

The concept of 'compulsory retirement' for the inefficient and invalid officers is laudable in itself. The devil lies in the detail. How is one going to ensure the exit of the truly inefficient and ineffective officials? How shall they be identified? Would the assessment system be the basis of identifying the officers to be retired? The present performance appraisal system, known as 'Annual Confidential Report (ACR)', is a subjective assessment and is definitely not fool-proof. Such a system can target and victimize officers, for instance Sanjeev Chaturvedi and Ashok Khemka, who don't kowtow to the powers that be.

Before shortlisting officers for 'compulsory retirement', the government must ensure the objective assessment of a particular officer by an independent panel whose neutrality is unquestionable. Of course, if it is an entity handpicked by the ruling dispensation, its members will very probably just sign on the dotted line. Hence, a mechanism needs to be evolved to ensure that we don't lose our best officers to the byzantine politicking in the portals of power. Co-opting a leader of the Opposition and a Judge of the Supreme Court or High Court in the panel may be a good idea to pre-empt the victimisation of efficient officers.

Again, circumstances and conditions of working also need to be factored in before taking a call on compulsory retirement. Many officers have complained that they are often expected to run towards an impossible target with their hands and feet tied. So even while you expect an officer to deliver, he may be deterred by undesirable interference or by an inefficient team which does not allow him to function effectively.

While the proposal relates to the All India Services - IAS, IPS and IFS - it ought to be applicable to all categories of officers and staff in order to ensure collective accountability. Their performance, in good measure, is dependent on the performance of other officials and staff from various services. They definitely provide the leadership in their respective domains, but targeting merely the AIS officers will not benefit the system overall.

If India is marching forward, the positive role of the bureaucracy cannot be denied, demeaned or disputed. There should be incentives for performers. Otherwise, the government runs the risk of losing them to the private sector. Treating the hare and the tortoise on the same footing does not make sense. So, a well-structured system of incentives is warranted to sustain the efficiency of the civil services.

The government should not limit its action-plan to compulsory retirement. It should also act on proposals as mooted by the last three Pay Commissions to peg a bureaucrat's salary to performance. Unless there is a system of differentiated pay linked to performance, the work culture will not improve. The Sixth Pay Commission had suggested an independent external agency to evaluate the performance of bureaucrats with the aim of linking overall payment to their performance.

Conversely, one of the Pay Commissions had also recommended that under-performers be denied normal increment. Both suggestions must be thoroughly discussed in the interest of putting in place an efficient and delivery-oriented superior and subordinate civil service. Twenty-first century India certainly deserves more than the mere continuation of a colonial-style bureaucracy.

From the perspective of fiscal policy, such issues as the government's pay-structure and work environment warrant reform. A huge chunk of the annual budget is earmarked for salaries and pensions of a behemoth bureaucracy. Only the residual amount is used for development. Making them accountable and getting more out of civil servants is an essential element of the proposed administrative reform. The system of incentivising the entire governance and delivery mechanism also calls for reflection.

The government must act on the tasks it has set out if it wants to execute its development agenda. However, a well-thought out human resource policy in keeping with the developmental priorities of an aspiring India is urgently imperative. Unless this happens, there will be instances of abuse of power or indifference towards responsibilities. Given the support for the idea, the Government definitely needs to go ahead to effect the proposal on the anvil.

The solar alternative

The Government of India’s Department of Coal is gung-ho over the fact that Coal India is ratcheting its production and stockpiling reserves in its consumer premises. This is happening despite the large back-down of many fossil fuel-based energy plants on account of recession in the manufacturing sector. Coal India and its subsidiaries are facing a financial crisis as non-earning stockpiles fail to earn any revenue to pay dues for the coal supplied by these companies. The debate over fossil fuels like coal will intensify once CIL's financial results are declared next year.

The Department of Coal's official website says a cumulative total of 301.56 billion tonnes of coal have been estimated in the country as on April 1, 2014. Of these about 120 billion tonnes (40 per cent) are predicted reserves, i.e. unproven. Moreover, only about 5 billion tonnes comprise prime coking coal. The bulk of all reserves, about 167 billion tonnes (89 per cent) are non-coking coal. Deriving from this are 1:6-7 energy yield differentials between Australian and Indian coal. This implies that Indian reserves would have to be diminished by a factor of 60-70 per cent for the same energy creation capacity.

Assuming an average consumption of 600 million tonnes in 2011, the country’s proven and exploitable reserves of 300 years would perhaps yield no more than 55-75 billion tonnes over a span of 90-125 years even after factoring commercial farming initiatives that the department proposes to undertake in the coming months. This figure would diminish further if the non-energy use of coal is taken into account or if coal consumption rises further. The total coal consumption is estimated to increase 2-3 times from 660 million tons/year to 1800 million tons/year; accordingly the CO2 emissions will rise from 1,590 million tons/year to 4,320 million tons/year. This huge growth will only whittle down coal reserves to possibly 30-40 years. Despite the lofty claims of the Department of Coal, Narendra Modi’s government has realised that alternate sources of energy, notably solar, must be explored if India's development story is to move into high gear without violating global emission norms.

India’s per capita energy consumption in 2011 was 600 kgoe compared to China and South Africa at 1881 and 2846 kgoe/capita respectively. Our consumption is a meagre 32 per cent of the global average of 1884 kgoe. Low energy consumption is naturally reflected in electricity consumption which is a paltry 22 per cent of the global average of 2875 KwH/capita. The origin of low electricity consumption lies in a reduced installed capacity of 0.17 KwH/capita against the global average of 0.74 KwH/capita. Therefore, traditional methods of firewood, kerosene, LPG/PNG, etc. remain the mainstay of vast swathes of our rural and urban sectors. Even the electricity that is generated suffers up to 50 per cent transmission and distribution losses that can effectively bring down the average availability of paltry supply by nearly half.

The total coal consumption is estimated to increase 2-3 times from 660 million tons/year to 1800 million tons/year over the next decade or so; accordingly the CO2 emissions will also rise from 1,590 million tons/year to 4,320 million tons/year. PM, SO2, and NOx emissions will at least double in the same period. Most of the planned plants are supercritical and ultra- TPPs, which tend to utilize less coal per MWh of electricity generated. With no emission regulation in place for SO2 and NOx, these are assumed to be uncontrolled. A 100 per cent increase in terms of impact on health is also forecast.

The total premature mortality due to the emission from coal-fired TPPs is expected to grow 2-3 times reaching 186500 to 229500 annually in 2030. Asthma cases associated with coal-fired TPP emissions are expected to grow to 42.7 million by 2030. Yet India currently has no standards for either SO2 or NOx. Over the past 40 years, thermal generation has increased to more than 70 per cent. Given the difficulty of constructing large hydro projects, its share is unlikely to increase in the future. Nuclear installed capacity is projected to increase to about 69 GW (under the most optimistic scenario) from the existing base of about 5 GW. Share of coal in the electricity generation mix will, regrettably, continue to range from 50 - 60 per cent in 2035.

A scenario whereby India reduces the coal mix to 40 per cent is considered to be the highest possible reduction in coal usage; but this would imply a 22 per cent share of renewable energy in the electricity generation mix. Even with this high renewable share, the coal installed capacity must grow to 270 GW by 2035. The likely estimate of installed coal-based power capacity is 340 GW (50 per cent share) in 2035, which represents significant growth from the existing installed capacity of 132 GW in 2013 (i.e., growth rate of 4.4 per cent per year). Sixty-eight per cent of India's energy is generated by fossil-fuel/gas-based power projects. Yet the country presently has an extremely low availability of 0.17 Kwh/person as compared to 0.74 Kwh in China and 0.89 Kwh in South Africa. Not surprisingly, India's HDI index is just 0.52 compared with China’s 0.66 and South Africa’s 0.59.

The worst affected states for the TPP boom are expected to be Andhra/Telangana, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Karnataka, MP, Odisha, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, UP and West Bengal. These states account for a giant share of India’s total population and geographical area. The impact on health, resulting in premature deaths, include chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, cancer of the trachea, bronchitis and lung systemic inflammation, accelerated atherosclerosis and altered cardiac function.

In 2030, the total premature mortality is estimated to claim 80,000-1.15 lakh lives at a cost of Rs 16,000-23,000 crore. Child mortality below five years would cost India Rs 2,100 crore, 625 million respiratory cases Rs 6,200 crore, 1.70 lakh chronic bronchitis patients at a cost of Rs 900 crore. Likewise, there may be an expected 8.4 million cases of chest discomfort costing Rs 170 crore, 20.9 million asthma attacks costing Rs 2,100 crore and 9 lakh emergency room visits for Rs. 320 crore. All these figures are for a single year, 2030, alone, that too with a crumbling public health system. Moreover, the data excludes figures for equally large casualties from vehicular and industrial pollution, mostly in urban areas.

The statistics on the damage to health are fearsome. The annual health cost in Andhra Pradesh is estimated to rise from Rs 9870 crore in 2017 to 17510 crore in 2030; Bihar from Rs 9450 crore to Rs 16410 crore; Maharashtra from Rs 12360 crore to Rs 20440 crore per annum. These figures exclude collateral damage sustained by the environment and flora and fauna.

India has 30 million hectares of fallow land available. In addition, in the total geographical area of 329 million hectares, the net area sown is only 136 million hectares (i.e, 41 per cent). Moreover, Rajasthan’s Thar desert has an area of 2 lakh sq km, another 7,500 sq km in the Rann of Kutch, etc. A recent study shows that Delhi’s government buildings have a combined usable rooftop area of four sq km without using their exterior wall areas. Add another conservative six sq km by way of the Capital’s major malls, private hospitals, university and school buildings, private home rooftops, rooftops of airports and covered stadia like the IP Velodrome and Siri Fort Auditorium complex, inter-state bus terminals and railway stations, et al.

Industrial clusters in Delhi and suitable residential colonies could add another seven sq km, easily making for 17 sq km that could potentially generate energy. If the 253.13 acres on which the derelict Safdarjang aerodrome in Lutyens’ Delhi stands and is only used for SPG practice and office space, were to be converted into a solar park, a large part of the city’s energy demand could have been met in an environment friendly manner. A National Alternative Fuels R&D Centre and National Scientific Innovation Centre, each with private industry participation, on this area with solar panels on its roofs and open spaces would catapult India into global prominence and give a huge fillip to our solar panel manufacturers whose panels already dot South African, even Chinese rooftops.

Our Tier-II & III cities have the potential to provide several hundred sq km more for on-grid solar energy farms to meet India’s need of 32,000 hectares. We actually have more than  this relatively modest figure. And this is when rural India that accounts for 72 per cent of India’s population in 2011 hardly receives any power supply from state/national grids and States’ RE efforts exist no more than on paper after investing several thousand crore since there is hardly enough energy generated for all. Surprisingly, all research into the economics of alternative fuel energy generation, thoughtlessly project fossil fuel-based energy supplies as the wave of the future when the world is thinking differently.

Mission for NITI Aayog

NITI Aayog should make India a first-world nation in economic data, statistics, analysis and dissemination

Sajjid Chinoy of JP Morgan (India) wrote in The Indian Express that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), under D. Subbarao, was blindsided twice by inadequate and lack of timely data. The RBI began a gradual tightening cycle in 2010-11 but subsequent revisions showed that economic growth had begun to accelerate much faster than what initial estimates had suggested. Again, in Q1 2012, the rate of inflation was revised higher retrospectively. Had it been available on time, the RBI may not have cut interest rates by 50 basis points in April 2012.

Andy Mukherjee wrote a column on the day before the RBI met to decide on monetary policy in September 2015. He wanted to make a case for the RBI to make a sizeable interest rate cut. So, he had to cite some information on the extent of economic malaise. Usually, most commentators would look for weakness in job creation (employment) as a justification for aggressive interest rate cuts. The problem is that there is not much useful employment-unemployment data in India. He had to be content with citing the well-publicized news of highly educated youths applying for the job of a peon in government service in Uttar Pradesh and statistics on the number of youths attending colleges having doubled to 60 million from around 30 million in 2005.

Arguably, the most widely followed data release in the world is that of the monthly non-farm employment in the United States. Both private sector economists and academics find enough in it to write tomes. What kind of labour market data does India have?

The labour bureau of the ministry of labour and employment is located comfortably in Shimla—away from all the action in the country. It published the Indian Labour Year Book 2011 and 2012 together on 16 March 2015! The data on employment and unemployment is available only up to March 2011 and that too only for the organized sector, which employed about 29 million people out of an estimated total workforce of around 480 million. The population estimate then was 1.211 billion. The participation rate is too low. The very fact that organized-sector employment is about 6% of the total workforce is an indication of India’s inefficient production structure. Too many people are not in the labour force and about half of those in it declare themselves self-employed. Therefore, the unemployment rate in the country, unbelievably, was 3.8% based on the second employment-unemployment (E-U) survey that commenced in July 2011 and was completed in July 2012.

By January 2015, the labour bureau had issued a press note on the fourth annual E-U survey, while the survey report itself was released in October 2014. The survey was conducted between January and July 2014. The Yearbook 2011-12 released in March 2015 did not bother to include that number, even in the footnotes. The fourth E-U survey has five volumes. The unemployment rate as per the fourth E-U survey had gone up to 4.9% and that too because of the high unemployment rate among people aged 15-17 years and 18-29 years. The unemployment rates in these two categories were 17.5% and 12.9%, respectively. Incredibly, for people aged 30 and above, the unemployment rate was 1.4%!

In addition to this, the labour bureau conducts quarterly employment surveys. For some strange reason, they are labelled, Quarterly Report on Effect of Economic Slowdown on Employment in India. The 24th report was released in April 2015 and it pertained to the period October–December 2014. According to this 24th quarterly survey, the economy had created 421,000 jobs in 2014. Since there is no corresponding data on the growth in population—or the growth in the labour force— it is hard to make out if the economy was creating jobs in adequate numbers. In January this year, it was announced that the ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MOSPI) would conduct quarterly employment surveys to provide information in a more timely fashion. We have not heard much about it since then.

Keeping all this in mind, I have a new mission in mind for NITI Aayog. It should declare that its goal is to make India a first-world nation in economic data, statistics, analysis and dissemination in the next four years. It can set aside every other project it is working on. MOSPI can focus on programme implementation and the statistics wing can be folded into NITI Aayog. If NITI Aayog pursued this mission, it would discover gaps, redundancies, inter-ministerial and centre-states’ coordination and overlapping issues. It can document all of those and publish a separate report on the governance issues it discovered in the process. If it succeeds in doing so, the transformational impact will be considerable. Faith in government institutions would be restored too. It would enhance India’s credibility in the world. More importantly, policy will be made with timely data and facts rather than based on ideology and polemics.

On winning the 2015 Nobel Prize for economics, Angus Deaton said that democracies required good data. Nothing more needs to be said.