The Government of India’s Department of Coal is gung-ho over the fact
that Coal India is ratcheting its production and stockpiling reserves in
its consumer premises. This is happening despite the large back-down of
many fossil fuel-based energy plants on account of recession in the
manufacturing sector. Coal India and its subsidiaries are facing a
financial crisis as non-earning stockpiles fail to earn any revenue to
pay dues for the coal supplied by these companies. The debate over
fossil fuels like coal will intensify once CIL's financial results are
declared next year.
The Department of Coal's official website says a cumulative total of 301.56 billion tonnes of coal have been estimated in the country as on April 1, 2014. Of these about 120 billion tonnes (40 per cent) are predicted reserves, i.e. unproven. Moreover, only about 5 billion tonnes comprise prime coking coal. The bulk of all reserves, about 167 billion tonnes (89 per cent) are non-coking coal. Deriving from this are 1:6-7 energy yield differentials between Australian and Indian coal. This implies that Indian reserves would have to be diminished by a factor of 60-70 per cent for the same energy creation capacity.
Assuming an average consumption of 600 million tonnes in 2011, the country’s proven and exploitable reserves of 300 years would perhaps yield no more than 55-75 billion tonnes over a span of 90-125 years even after factoring commercial farming initiatives that the department proposes to undertake in the coming months. This figure would diminish further if the non-energy use of coal is taken into account or if coal consumption rises further. The total coal consumption is estimated to increase 2-3 times from 660 million tons/year to 1800 million tons/year; accordingly the CO2 emissions will rise from 1,590 million tons/year to 4,320 million tons/year. This huge growth will only whittle down coal reserves to possibly 30-40 years. Despite the lofty claims of the Department of Coal, Narendra Modi’s government has realised that alternate sources of energy, notably solar, must be explored if India's development story is to move into high gear without violating global emission norms.
India’s per capita energy consumption in 2011 was 600 kgoe compared to China and South Africa at 1881 and 2846 kgoe/capita respectively. Our consumption is a meagre 32 per cent of the global average of 1884 kgoe. Low energy consumption is naturally reflected in electricity consumption which is a paltry 22 per cent of the global average of 2875 KwH/capita. The origin of low electricity consumption lies in a reduced installed capacity of 0.17 KwH/capita against the global average of 0.74 KwH/capita. Therefore, traditional methods of firewood, kerosene, LPG/PNG, etc. remain the mainstay of vast swathes of our rural and urban sectors. Even the electricity that is generated suffers up to 50 per cent transmission and distribution losses that can effectively bring down the average availability of paltry supply by nearly half.
The total coal consumption is estimated to increase 2-3 times from 660 million tons/year to 1800 million tons/year over the next decade or so; accordingly the CO2 emissions will also rise from 1,590 million tons/year to 4,320 million tons/year. PM, SO2, and NOx emissions will at least double in the same period. Most of the planned plants are supercritical and ultra- TPPs, which tend to utilize less coal per MWh of electricity generated. With no emission regulation in place for SO2 and NOx, these are assumed to be uncontrolled. A 100 per cent increase in terms of impact on health is also forecast.
The total premature mortality due to the emission from coal-fired TPPs is expected to grow 2-3 times reaching 186500 to 229500 annually in 2030. Asthma cases associated with coal-fired TPP emissions are expected to grow to 42.7 million by 2030. Yet India currently has no standards for either SO2 or NOx. Over the past 40 years, thermal generation has increased to more than 70 per cent. Given the difficulty of constructing large hydro projects, its share is unlikely to increase in the future. Nuclear installed capacity is projected to increase to about 69 GW (under the most optimistic scenario) from the existing base of about 5 GW. Share of coal in the electricity generation mix will, regrettably, continue to range from 50 - 60 per cent in 2035.
A scenario whereby India reduces the coal mix to 40 per cent is considered to be the highest possible reduction in coal usage; but this would imply a 22 per cent share of renewable energy in the electricity generation mix. Even with this high renewable share, the coal installed capacity must grow to 270 GW by 2035. The likely estimate of installed coal-based power capacity is 340 GW (50 per cent share) in 2035, which represents significant growth from the existing installed capacity of 132 GW in 2013 (i.e., growth rate of 4.4 per cent per year). Sixty-eight per cent of India's energy is generated by fossil-fuel/gas-based power projects. Yet the country presently has an extremely low availability of 0.17 Kwh/person as compared to 0.74 Kwh in China and 0.89 Kwh in South Africa. Not surprisingly, India's HDI index is just 0.52 compared with China’s 0.66 and South Africa’s 0.59.
The worst affected states for the TPP boom are expected to be Andhra/Telangana, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Karnataka, MP, Odisha, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, UP and West Bengal. These states account for a giant share of India’s total population and geographical area. The impact on health, resulting in premature deaths, include chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, cancer of the trachea, bronchitis and lung systemic inflammation, accelerated atherosclerosis and altered cardiac function.
In 2030, the total premature mortality is estimated to claim 80,000-1.15 lakh lives at a cost of Rs 16,000-23,000 crore. Child mortality below five years would cost India Rs 2,100 crore, 625 million respiratory cases Rs 6,200 crore, 1.70 lakh chronic bronchitis patients at a cost of Rs 900 crore. Likewise, there may be an expected 8.4 million cases of chest discomfort costing Rs 170 crore, 20.9 million asthma attacks costing Rs 2,100 crore and 9 lakh emergency room visits for Rs. 320 crore. All these figures are for a single year, 2030, alone, that too with a crumbling public health system. Moreover, the data excludes figures for equally large casualties from vehicular and industrial pollution, mostly in urban areas.
The statistics on the damage to health are fearsome. The annual health cost in Andhra Pradesh is estimated to rise from Rs 9870 crore in 2017 to 17510 crore in 2030; Bihar from Rs 9450 crore to Rs 16410 crore; Maharashtra from Rs 12360 crore to Rs 20440 crore per annum. These figures exclude collateral damage sustained by the environment and flora and fauna.
India has 30 million hectares of fallow land available. In addition, in the total geographical area of 329 million hectares, the net area sown is only 136 million hectares (i.e, 41 per cent). Moreover, Rajasthan’s Thar desert has an area of 2 lakh sq km, another 7,500 sq km in the Rann of Kutch, etc. A recent study shows that Delhi’s government buildings have a combined usable rooftop area of four sq km without using their exterior wall areas. Add another conservative six sq km by way of the Capital’s major malls, private hospitals, university and school buildings, private home rooftops, rooftops of airports and covered stadia like the IP Velodrome and Siri Fort Auditorium complex, inter-state bus terminals and railway stations, et al.
Industrial clusters in Delhi and suitable residential colonies could add another seven sq km, easily making for 17 sq km that could potentially generate energy. If the 253.13 acres on which the derelict Safdarjang aerodrome in Lutyens’ Delhi stands and is only used for SPG practice and office space, were to be converted into a solar park, a large part of the city’s energy demand could have been met in an environment friendly manner. A National Alternative Fuels R&D Centre and National Scientific Innovation Centre, each with private industry participation, on this area with solar panels on its roofs and open spaces would catapult India into global prominence and give a huge fillip to our solar panel manufacturers whose panels already dot South African, even Chinese rooftops.
Our Tier-II & III cities have the potential to provide several hundred sq km more for on-grid solar energy farms to meet India’s need of 32,000 hectares. We actually have more than this relatively modest figure. And this is when rural India that accounts for 72 per cent of India’s population in 2011 hardly receives any power supply from state/national grids and States’ RE efforts exist no more than on paper after investing several thousand crore since there is hardly enough energy generated for all. Surprisingly, all research into the economics of alternative fuel energy generation, thoughtlessly project fossil fuel-based energy supplies as the wave of the future when the world is thinking differently.
The Department of Coal's official website says a cumulative total of 301.56 billion tonnes of coal have been estimated in the country as on April 1, 2014. Of these about 120 billion tonnes (40 per cent) are predicted reserves, i.e. unproven. Moreover, only about 5 billion tonnes comprise prime coking coal. The bulk of all reserves, about 167 billion tonnes (89 per cent) are non-coking coal. Deriving from this are 1:6-7 energy yield differentials between Australian and Indian coal. This implies that Indian reserves would have to be diminished by a factor of 60-70 per cent for the same energy creation capacity.
Assuming an average consumption of 600 million tonnes in 2011, the country’s proven and exploitable reserves of 300 years would perhaps yield no more than 55-75 billion tonnes over a span of 90-125 years even after factoring commercial farming initiatives that the department proposes to undertake in the coming months. This figure would diminish further if the non-energy use of coal is taken into account or if coal consumption rises further. The total coal consumption is estimated to increase 2-3 times from 660 million tons/year to 1800 million tons/year; accordingly the CO2 emissions will rise from 1,590 million tons/year to 4,320 million tons/year. This huge growth will only whittle down coal reserves to possibly 30-40 years. Despite the lofty claims of the Department of Coal, Narendra Modi’s government has realised that alternate sources of energy, notably solar, must be explored if India's development story is to move into high gear without violating global emission norms.
India’s per capita energy consumption in 2011 was 600 kgoe compared to China and South Africa at 1881 and 2846 kgoe/capita respectively. Our consumption is a meagre 32 per cent of the global average of 1884 kgoe. Low energy consumption is naturally reflected in electricity consumption which is a paltry 22 per cent of the global average of 2875 KwH/capita. The origin of low electricity consumption lies in a reduced installed capacity of 0.17 KwH/capita against the global average of 0.74 KwH/capita. Therefore, traditional methods of firewood, kerosene, LPG/PNG, etc. remain the mainstay of vast swathes of our rural and urban sectors. Even the electricity that is generated suffers up to 50 per cent transmission and distribution losses that can effectively bring down the average availability of paltry supply by nearly half.
The total coal consumption is estimated to increase 2-3 times from 660 million tons/year to 1800 million tons/year over the next decade or so; accordingly the CO2 emissions will also rise from 1,590 million tons/year to 4,320 million tons/year. PM, SO2, and NOx emissions will at least double in the same period. Most of the planned plants are supercritical and ultra- TPPs, which tend to utilize less coal per MWh of electricity generated. With no emission regulation in place for SO2 and NOx, these are assumed to be uncontrolled. A 100 per cent increase in terms of impact on health is also forecast.
The total premature mortality due to the emission from coal-fired TPPs is expected to grow 2-3 times reaching 186500 to 229500 annually in 2030. Asthma cases associated with coal-fired TPP emissions are expected to grow to 42.7 million by 2030. Yet India currently has no standards for either SO2 or NOx. Over the past 40 years, thermal generation has increased to more than 70 per cent. Given the difficulty of constructing large hydro projects, its share is unlikely to increase in the future. Nuclear installed capacity is projected to increase to about 69 GW (under the most optimistic scenario) from the existing base of about 5 GW. Share of coal in the electricity generation mix will, regrettably, continue to range from 50 - 60 per cent in 2035.
A scenario whereby India reduces the coal mix to 40 per cent is considered to be the highest possible reduction in coal usage; but this would imply a 22 per cent share of renewable energy in the electricity generation mix. Even with this high renewable share, the coal installed capacity must grow to 270 GW by 2035. The likely estimate of installed coal-based power capacity is 340 GW (50 per cent share) in 2035, which represents significant growth from the existing installed capacity of 132 GW in 2013 (i.e., growth rate of 4.4 per cent per year). Sixty-eight per cent of India's energy is generated by fossil-fuel/gas-based power projects. Yet the country presently has an extremely low availability of 0.17 Kwh/person as compared to 0.74 Kwh in China and 0.89 Kwh in South Africa. Not surprisingly, India's HDI index is just 0.52 compared with China’s 0.66 and South Africa’s 0.59.
The worst affected states for the TPP boom are expected to be Andhra/Telangana, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Karnataka, MP, Odisha, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, UP and West Bengal. These states account for a giant share of India’s total population and geographical area. The impact on health, resulting in premature deaths, include chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, cancer of the trachea, bronchitis and lung systemic inflammation, accelerated atherosclerosis and altered cardiac function.
In 2030, the total premature mortality is estimated to claim 80,000-1.15 lakh lives at a cost of Rs 16,000-23,000 crore. Child mortality below five years would cost India Rs 2,100 crore, 625 million respiratory cases Rs 6,200 crore, 1.70 lakh chronic bronchitis patients at a cost of Rs 900 crore. Likewise, there may be an expected 8.4 million cases of chest discomfort costing Rs 170 crore, 20.9 million asthma attacks costing Rs 2,100 crore and 9 lakh emergency room visits for Rs. 320 crore. All these figures are for a single year, 2030, alone, that too with a crumbling public health system. Moreover, the data excludes figures for equally large casualties from vehicular and industrial pollution, mostly in urban areas.
The statistics on the damage to health are fearsome. The annual health cost in Andhra Pradesh is estimated to rise from Rs 9870 crore in 2017 to 17510 crore in 2030; Bihar from Rs 9450 crore to Rs 16410 crore; Maharashtra from Rs 12360 crore to Rs 20440 crore per annum. These figures exclude collateral damage sustained by the environment and flora and fauna.
India has 30 million hectares of fallow land available. In addition, in the total geographical area of 329 million hectares, the net area sown is only 136 million hectares (i.e, 41 per cent). Moreover, Rajasthan’s Thar desert has an area of 2 lakh sq km, another 7,500 sq km in the Rann of Kutch, etc. A recent study shows that Delhi’s government buildings have a combined usable rooftop area of four sq km without using their exterior wall areas. Add another conservative six sq km by way of the Capital’s major malls, private hospitals, university and school buildings, private home rooftops, rooftops of airports and covered stadia like the IP Velodrome and Siri Fort Auditorium complex, inter-state bus terminals and railway stations, et al.
Industrial clusters in Delhi and suitable residential colonies could add another seven sq km, easily making for 17 sq km that could potentially generate energy. If the 253.13 acres on which the derelict Safdarjang aerodrome in Lutyens’ Delhi stands and is only used for SPG practice and office space, were to be converted into a solar park, a large part of the city’s energy demand could have been met in an environment friendly manner. A National Alternative Fuels R&D Centre and National Scientific Innovation Centre, each with private industry participation, on this area with solar panels on its roofs and open spaces would catapult India into global prominence and give a huge fillip to our solar panel manufacturers whose panels already dot South African, even Chinese rooftops.
Our Tier-II & III cities have the potential to provide several hundred sq km more for on-grid solar energy farms to meet India’s need of 32,000 hectares. We actually have more than this relatively modest figure. And this is when rural India that accounts for 72 per cent of India’s population in 2011 hardly receives any power supply from state/national grids and States’ RE efforts exist no more than on paper after investing several thousand crore since there is hardly enough energy generated for all. Surprisingly, all research into the economics of alternative fuel energy generation, thoughtlessly project fossil fuel-based energy supplies as the wave of the future when the world is thinking differently.
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