A Himalayan solution

 

Historic Paris climate pact puts world on green path

 

CoP21 agreement adopted unanimously at the plenary session amid cheers; Common but differentiated responsibilities give developing nations a cushion; Developed nations to raise $100 billion a year as the floor to help other countries

The stage is set for all countries to move to a low carbon pathway with the Paris Agreement on climate change adopting a goal of “well below 2 degrees C” for temperature rise, and instituting a regime of financing of developing economies to help make the transition. Nations are to pursue efforts to aim at the more difficult objective of pegging temperature rise under 1.5 degrees C.

Underpinning the Agreement, which is scheduled to go into effect from 2020, is the system of voluntary pledges, or nationally determined contributions made by individual countries to peak their greenhouse gas emissions that are warming the atmosphere and changing the climate. The reference in the text for the need to achieve an equalisation between emission of Green House Gases (GHGs) and their removal by ‘sinks’ by the second half of the present century has been welcomed widely since it turns attention to renewable energy, and away from fossil fuels.

The text of the Agreement unveiled on Saturday at the 21st meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention Climate Change after two weeks of talks and an intensive three days of convergence negotiations was formally adopted amid cheers at the Plenary.

The UNFCCC principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities ensuring equity is incorporated into the Paris Agreement to provide developing countries a cushion.

India's Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar expressed happiness that the text addressed the concerns raised by India in all areas — mitigation of carbon emissions, adaptation to climate change, financing, technology development and transfer, capacity building and transparency. He said there were some concerns, which he would raise at the Plenary.

Mr. Javadekar told the media that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had always advocated a sustainable lifestyle and climate justice. Both find a place in the Agreement text. The solar alliance which the Prime Minister had launched was another success, bringing together 120 nations and winning plaudits from France. French President Francois Hollande had on Saturday called Mr. Modi about the Agreement, and he expressed hope that it would be a historic pact fulfilling the aspirations of seven billion people. The Paris Agreement requires developed countries to raise finances with $100 billion per year as the floor by 2020, to help developing nations in both mitigation and adaptation activities, while other nations are encouraged to provide funding voluntarily. However, any basis for liability of countries which have historically accumulated greenhouse gases in the atmosphere causing disastrous climate events such as droughts, floods and extinctions, has been excluded.

The first global evaluation of the implementation of the Paris Agreement is to take place in 2023, and thereafter every five years to help all countries. Pledges by countries with an end date of 2025 or 2030 will need to be updated by 2020, and enhanced action every five years thereafter. It will also be possible for countries to cooperate voluntarily, form groups of nations for climate goals, and use both public and private finances, market and non-market mechanisms to meet the objective. A facilitative dialogue of countries is to be held in 2018 to review the collective efforts, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is to be asked for a special report in the same year, on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels.

Major features of the text outlined by French Foreign Minister and CoP21 president Laurent Fabius are:

>> It takes into account the differentiation and responsibility of developing countries, and their respective capacities in light of national circumstances

>> Confirms the key objective of containing mean global temperature rise well below 2 degrees Celsius and to endeavour to limit it to 1.5 degrees

Draft Paris Agreement

>> There will be five-yearly national contributions on actions taken to address climate change

>> There is provision for adaptation to climate change. Cooperation on loss and damage suffered by countries on a long term basis to provide necessary means to all countries for durable development.

>> Provision of 100 billion per year as a floor by 2020 to help developing nations.

>> A new figure to be defined for the period between now and 2020

>> Collective stocktaking every five years of national actions and consideration of steps if efforts are insufficient for the objective set

Road to curb temperature rises

The goal of the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, COP21, is to achieve a legally binding, international agreement to keep average global temperatures no more than 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures*
Global mean temperatures above pre-industrial levels

• 1850-1900
  Average temperature 13.7°C
• 1.0°C
  Temperature rise expected to surpass 1°C in 2015
• 2.7°C
  Forecast warming† by 2100 even if all COP21 pledges are implemented
• 4-5°C
  Forecast rise by 2060 if current emissions levels continue
• 2.0°C
  2010: 193 nations sign Cancun Agreements committing governments to “hold increase in global average temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels”
• 3-5°C
  Warming on existing emissions-reduction policies. Low-lying island states at risk from rising sea levels

*Accurate assessment of temperatures in 1750s – when industrial revolution began – is difficult. To overcome problem, climatologists use average temperatures recorded between 1850 and 1900. †United Nations Synthesis report on aggregate effect of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)

Sources: UK Met. Office Hadley Centre, Climate Action Tracker, WMO - © GRAPHIC NEWS

 http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/cop-21-historic-paris-climate-pact-adopted/article7981450.ece?homepage=true

The nonsense that is gut instinct

 

Just the other day, I was on a random walk around what I maintain is one of the best websites on the Internet right now, The Farnam Street Blog. While there, I stumbled upon an interesting question that had once obsessed me a long time ago: What important truth do very few people agree with you on? It is a question that Peter Thiel asks in his bestselling book, Zero to One: Notes on Start Ups, or How to Build the Future.

The question is an awfully tough one to take head on. Thiel makes it clear that the most common answers, such as “Our educational system is broken and needs to be fixed” or “There is no god”, are bad answers. The former because many people already agree with them. The latter because it is now a familiar debate.

“A good answer,” writes Thiel, “takes the following form: Most people believe in X, but the truth is the opposite of X.”

Having given it some thought, I threw the question at a group of close friends. A quiet, intelligent and soft-spoken friend based out of Bengaluru came up with a compelling answer that I agreed with.

This friend said: “Most people think we will be ruled by data in the future. Wearable tech, sensors at one level, and big data analytics at another level will help us optimize our life. Dictated by that, we will be more efficient, more productive and live a meaningful life. But the truth is emotions will matter more. We will increasingly be guided by our instincts because eventually those numbers will begin to overwhelm us. It is inevitable then that we begin to mistrust the numbers and question the algorithms that crunch the numbers to tell us what we should do. Instead, we will trust our instincts more. So, what will increasingly become more important are not the new devices, but old techniques like meditation and yoga that will help us sharpen our instincts. At present, few people practice these. In the future, the majority will.”

His answer struck a chord with me. I come from a school of thought that believes an individual’s instinct—or gut feel, as we call it—is nothing more than the sum total of our experiences. That is why, how each person sees the world is different from the other person. Everybody’s individual experiences are different.

To that extent, everyone’s version of the truth is different. It is, therefore, incumbent on us not to rubbish another view because it is the outcome of a different experience.

So, a truth I know, but cannot prove, is this: When faced with a mountain of data that we can make no sense of, the only way out is to listen closely to what our gut or instinct has to say.

Now, this whole thing about trusting gut instinct gained currency in 2005 when the celebrated science writer Malcolm Gladwell wrote a compelling account of why it matters in his chart-busting book Blink. He argued forcefully with very many examples of people in situations that demanded they make split-second decisions. Inevitably, he points out, our gut trumps our brain.

If more evidence was needed, Gladwell points out, there are more nerve endings in the gut than in the brain. So, while it may go against stated wisdom that we take time out to think a problem through, if we give those thoughts more than two seconds, we allow our experiences to be subsumed by data.

But my truth came under scrutiny earlier this week when it was challenged at a two-day workshop on design thinking in Mumbai. The idea of this workshop exercise was to figure out how we could possibly approach any issue on hand with innovative solutions.

Having defined a problem, the instructors separated all of us into teams, and equipped us with a set of tools to think the problem through. Crucially, they also prodded us to capture every thought on the assigned problem that occurred in our minds.

Without getting into the specifics, I must confess I was stunned. When left to my gut, much like everybody else in the room, we could think up two to three ideas each. Many of these ideas overlapped as well. After weeding the infeasible ones, the 20-odd people in the room could think up 35-40 solutions.

However, when exposed to a well-thought process and equipped with tools and a little more time on hand, we came up with more than 300 ideas to crack each problem open.

My truth about the power of gut instincts lay in ruins.

Armed with these insights, I turned to Harsh Mariwala, the chairman of Marico Industries Ltd, and asked him how much gut instinct mattered in his scheme of things. Marico has a reputation for being one of the most innovative Indian companies and much of the credit for it goes to Mariwala.

“Instinct or gut feel by itself doesn’t work for me,” he said. “I listen to my gut when everything else that is rational has first fallen into place. Then I know it is the right thing to do. But if my gut isn’t backed by the evidence on hand, I ignore it, however loud it may be.”

If any more evidence was needed to demolish my assumptions on why instinct matters, I stumbled upon a blog post by Scott Berkun. He made a few pertinent observations.

● Our instincts can say contradictory things. For instance, there is a part of ourselves that knows drugs are bad. The other part lures us towards them anyway.

● Instincts are not static. They are biased by recent events.

● Some of our instincts are better trained than others. For instance, if trained in the arts, you can perhaps spot an interesting painting right away. But that may not hold true for an automobile. To that extent, you cannot trust your untrained instinct.

● Instincts can be manipulated. People in advertising, marketing and sales businesses know this all too well. That is why when data stares us on the face, they know what messages to send out that appeal to our instinct.

India, Japan agree on military sales, bullet train and nuclear deal

Abe says Japan’s cooperation with India in the nuclear field will be limited to peaceful objectives 

India and Japan on Saturday cemented their strategic partnership with the signing of a preliminary pact on civil nuclear cooperation, capping years of negotiations.

The two sides also signed agreements on sharing of technology, equipment and military information and announced that Japan will be a regular participant in the Malabar series of naval exercises that were held mainly between the Indian and US navies.
On the economic front, Japan said it will provide $12 billion of soft funding to build India’s first bullet train besides another $12 billion as an incentive package for Japanese companies investing in India. As part of its overseas assistance package, Japan would lend India $400 billion yen, or $3 billion, for various projects. It will also participate in big ticket infrastructure projects in India, including the $5.5 billion Chennai-Bengaluru corridor project.
The announcements come after hour-long talks between visiting Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Saturday. Abe is in India for the annual India-Japan summit.
This is Abe’s second visit to India since his re-election in 2012.
Last year, on a visit to Japan, Modi and Abe had elevated their ties to a global and strategic partnership.
A joint statement released after the talks that laid out a vision for cooperation till 2025 said: “The two prime ministers view that imperatives of a stronger bilateral strategic partnership require deep and broad-based cooperation and concrete actions in defence, security, economic and cultural fields.”
“Our future-oriented partnership raises our collaboration to a new level in areas of infrastructure, manufacturing and high technology, including advanced transportation systems, civil nuclear energy, solar power generation, space, biotechnology, rare earths and advanced materials,” it said.
According to analysts, India and Japan are looking to strengthen relations in a bid to balance the unpredictable rise of China as Asia’s dominant power. India has an unsettled border issue with China and views its relations with Pakistan with a wary eye while Japan has territorial disputes with China apart from issues that date back to World War II. Both Modi and Abe are seen as nationalists and analysts see a parallel in the way the two leaders are trying to build up their respective economies to match China’s growing economic and political clout in the Asia-Pacific region.
In his remarks on Saturday, Modi backed the Japanese position on “ensuring freedom of navigation and over-flight, and maritime commerce”.
“We believe that disputes must be resolved peacefully and that all countries must abide by international law and norms on maritime issues,” Modi said, against the backdrop of China imposing embargos in flights and ships from flying over or sailing close to islands disputed with Japan.
Major takeaways 
One of the major takeaways from Abe’s visit has been the preliminary pact on the civil nuclear deal. A text of the pact provided by the Japanese side says “the government of Japan and the government of the republic of India have reached agreement on...cooperation in peaceful uses on nuclear energy. The two governments confirm that the agreement will be signed after the technical details are finalized, including those related to the necessary internal procedures”.
According to Indian foreign secretary S. Jaishankar, “We have achieved substantial progress as the key part of the agreement has been done”, though legal and technical experts from both the countries have to go over it and the text has to be passed by the Japanese parliament.
Agreement on the pact had been elusive for many years given Japan’s sensitivities—being the only country in the world to have suffered the consequences of being targeted by nuclear weapons. India, on its part, has stressed that it will retain its right to test atomic weapons and has refused to be bound by any international treaties limiting its options.
Yasuhisa Kawamura, spokesman in the Japanese prime minister’s office, told reporters in New Delhi that India’s self imposed moratorium on nuclear testing and its move separating its civil nuclear reactors from its military ones were seen as commitments by Japan to assuage its concerns on nuclear testing and non-proliferation. “Japan does not see any move by India to go towards testing of atomic weapons,” Kawamura said during a press conference. Japan would, however, relook at its civil nuclear cooperation pact with India if it were to test, he said.
The pact with Japan is crucial for India’s electricity generation plans as many safety and other components meant for reactors are manufactured by Japanese companies.
With India committing to steps to cut down on emissions, nuclear energy is a key component of India’s energy mix, Jaishankar said.
According to Modi, the memorandum “we signed on civil nuclear energy cooperation is more than just an agreement for commerce and clean energy, it is a shining symbol of a new level of mutual confidence and strategic partnership in the cause of peaceful and secure world”. Abe said Japan’s cooperation with India in the nuclear field will be limited to peaceful objectives.
The second major outcome of Abe’s visit was the deal to build a high-speed train line between Mumbai and Ahmedabad. The pact gives Japan a head start over China, which is conducting feasibility studies for high-speed trains on other parts of the Indian rail network. The Indian deal for Japan comes after it lost a similar deal in Indonesia to China.
“This enterprise will launch a revolution in Indian railways and speed up India’s journey into the future. It will become an engine of economic transformation in India,” Modi said in a speech.
According to Jaishankar, India will have to repay the loan over a 50 year-period which has been extended at an interest rate of 0.1%.
The 508km rail line will cost a total of Rs.97,636 crore and the travel time between the two railway stations is expected to be cut down to 2 hours from the current 7 hours.
Under the defence deals announced on Saturday, the two sides agreed to share technology, equipment and military information, but the long-awaited sale of Japanese aircraft in a deal worth about $1.1 billion was not concluded.
India and Japan have been holding talks for two years on the purchase by India of US-2 amphibious aircraft made by ShinMaywa Industries, which would be one of Japan’s first arms sales since Abe lifted a 50-year ban on weapon exports.
Modi described the defence pacts as “decisive steps in our security cooperation,” adding that they would deepen the defence relations and promote defence manufacturing in India.
The two leaders also issued a joint statement on “India and Japan Vision 2025: Special Strategic and Global Partnership Working Together for Peace and Prosperity of the Indo-Pacific Region and the World.”
The statement said India would extend visa an arrival facility for Japanese nationals, including businessmen, from 1 March 2016.
“The two Prime Ministers reaffirmed the intention to develop ‘Japan Industrial Townships (JITs),’ with investment incentive for companies that would not be lower than under the prevailing policy framework such as Special Economic Zone (SEZ), and National Investment and Manufacturing Zone (NIMZ). Moreover, both sides will work toward evolving special packages for attracting Japanese investment in the Japanese Industrial Townships in India. The two Prime Ministers reaffirmed to further deepen bilateral economic and financial cooperation,” the statement said

Locating caste in India’s farm economy A NSSO report shows there are significant caste-based differences in economic status of agricultural households in India

Locating caste in India’s farm economy

A NSSO report shows there are significant caste-based differences in economic status of agricultural households in India 

 Social divisions in India’s countryside are a well-established fact. A National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) report released last week shows there are significant caste-based differences in economic status of agricultural households in India. Unsurprisingly, lower castes are the worst-off by most yardsticks.

A large majority of India’s farmers are finding it difficult to make ends meet. Around 70% of agricultural households report a deficit situation, where average monthly income was less than the sum of average monthly consumption and net investment in productive assets.
Agricultural households have been defined as those who received not less than Rs.3,000 of produce from farm activities in the preceding 365 days. The survey was conducted over two rounds in July-December 2012 and January-June 2013. The two survey periods broadly capture India’s two agricultural seasons.
An analysis by social groups shows scheduled caste (SC) farm households have the highest share among those running a deficit, followed by other backward classes (OBC).
As expected, ownership of land is an important factor of well-being in the farm economy. Deficit households have lower land holdings. The threshold of being an economically viable agricultural household among all social groups is 1 hectare.
Given the dominance of upper castes in the farm economy thanks to largest relative land ownership (share of land owned divided by share in population), they have the highest share of earnings from cultivation and non-farm incomes among all social groups. SCs have the highest share of income from wage employment, which makes them more vulnerable to unemployment.
The report also suggests a reversal in social fortunes might be in making. Currently, upper castes are the only social group that enjoys a more than proportionate share in total income and consumption than their share in population. Once again, SCs are the worst-off.
However, other backward castes have an equal share in income and consumption, but a much higher share in total expenditure on net investment in productive assets. Interestingly, the upper castes have the lowest share in investment expenditure relative to their share in population. These shares have been calculated by multiplying average income, consumption and investment expenditure with expected number of agricultural households in each social group.
According to Himanshu, an associate professor of economics at Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University, OBCs are becoming the biggest stakeholders in agricultural activities. They have close to 45% share in population and land ownership—the highest in both categories—in rural areas. The disproportionate share in investment might be because they are actively engaged in farming, while upper castes are holding on to land for speculative purposes after having migrated in pursuit of better opportunities outside villages, he added.

Antibiotic Resistance

Antibiotic Resistance

Antibiotic drug resistance is developed in the micro-organisms. ICMR is carrying out surveillance of drug resistance to antibiotics through its Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Research Network (AMRSN) in six pathogenic groups (i) Diarrhoeagenic bacterial organisms (ii) Enteric fever pathogens (iii) Enterobacteriaceae causing sepsis (iv) Gram negative Non-fermenters (v) Gram positives including MRSA (vi) Fungal infections. The data is being collected from CMC, Vellore, JIPMER, Puducherry, PGIMER Chandigarh and AIIMS, New Delhi. The significant findings from last 2 years indicate that Salmonella typhi multidrug resistance (MDR) to ampicillin, chloramphenicol and trimethoprim–sulfamethoxazole is showing a downward trend. However, more than 50% of bacterial isolates of Klebsiella spp. and E. coli were found to be resistant to the currently used 3^rd generation cephalosporins, but they are sensitive to carbapenams and colistin. There is no data available regarding fatalities reported due to antibiotic resistance.

As informed by ICMR, according to a WHO survey, public health awareness about antimicrobial resistance is very low. The Government’s Programme on containment of Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) includes the component of increasing awareness on rational use of antibiotics.

Government of India has signed a Memorandum of Understanding/Agreement for cooperation in health with several countries. AMR has been identified as one of the areas of cooperation in Agreements/ MOUS with some of these countries including Sweden, Netherland and U.K.

During the World Health Assembly in May 2015, the Member States have adopted a Global plan for action on AMR. Further, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Research Council of Norway (RCN), and also initiated collaboration with National Institute of Health, USA (NIH) and Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, USA (CDC) regarding antimicrobial resistance.

In order to strengthen the surveillance of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in the country, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has set up a National Anti-Microbial Resistance Research and Surveillance Network (AMRRSN) to enable compilation of National Data of AMR at different levels of Health Care.

The Drugs and Cosmetic Rule, 1945 were amended in 2013 to incorporate a new Schedule H1 under the said rules containing 46 drugs which include IIIrd and IVth generation antibiotics, anti TB drugs and certain habit forming drugs for having strict control over the sale of these drugs. The Drugs falling under Schedule H1 are required to be sold in the country with the following conditions:

(1)   The supply of a drug specified in Schedule H1 shall be recorded in a separate register at the time of the supply giving the name and address of the prescriber, the name of the patient, the name of the drug and the quantity supplied and such records shall be maintained for three years and be open for inspection.

(2)   The drug specified in Schedule H1 shall be labeled with the symbol Rx which shall be in red and conspicuously displayed on the left top corner of the label, and shall also be labeled with the following words in a box with a red border:-

“Schedule H1 Drug-Warning: -It is dangerous to take this preparation except in accordance with the medical advice. -Not to be sold by retail without the prescription of a Registered Medical Practitioner.”

Further, Government of India has formulated a national policy for containment of antimicrobial resistance in 2011. A National Programme for Containment of AMR has also been initiated in 12th Five Year Plan with the following objectives:-

§  To establish a laboratory based surveillance system by strengthening laboratories for AMR in the country and to generate quality data on antimicrobial resistance for pathogens of public health importance.

§  To generate awareness among healthcare providers and in the community regarding rational use of antibiotics.

§  To strengthen infection control guidelines and practices and promote rational use of antibiotics.

Consumer Price Index and Whole Sale Price Index

Consumer Price Index and Whole Sale Price Index

In an emerging and developing economy moderate inflation is desirable to spur growth impulses and sustained deflation is a challenge as it generally lowers aggregate demand and economic activity.

In the Indian economy inflation as per the Consumer Price Index-New Series (CPI) and other inflation indices has been in low positive territory while Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is in the negative zone, since November 2014. Under the Monetary Policy Framework Agreement signed between the Government and the Reserve Bank of India, year on year change in CPI has been accepted as the anchor for inflation in the Indian economy.

The behavior of WPI is influenced by the prices of international commodities including crude oil, which have been declining in the recent past while CPI inflation affects the ultimate consumers and includes consumer goods and services.

In view of movement in CPI inflation and growth in GDP, the Indian economy cannot be characterized as the one undergoing a deflationary situation.

To address the challenges posed to the Indian economy, the Government has undertaken a series of sectoral and macroeconomic reforms and is boosting aggregate demand through public investment in roads, railways and irrigation; liberalizing FDI flows; unblocking large number of stalled projects etc. Further, RBI has reduced the repo rates by 125 basis points since January 2015 which have impacted a reduction in interest rates and would spur investment and growth in the economy.