Weather Forecast Services

Weather Forecast Services

The Gramin Krishi Mausam Seva (GKMS) of Earth System Science Organization (ESSO)-India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been successful in providing the crop specific advisories to the farmers at the district level twice weekly through different media like print/visual/Radio/ IT based including short message service (SMS) and Integrated Voice Response System (IVRS) for a wider dissemination. At present, the GKMS products are disseminated through SMS and IVRS to 11.46 million farmers in the country.

Stating this in reply to a question in the Lok Sabha, the Minister for Science & Technology and Earth Science Dr. Harsh Vardhan said ESSO-IMD is not providing forecast and advisory services at the Block Level at present. However research efforts are initiated by ESSO –IMD to explore possibility of generating sub district scale Agro-meteorological forecast with acceptable level of verification skill in a pilot mode.

For the benefit of fisherman community, a satellite-based application for the fishermen community of the country, called "Potential Fishing Zone (PFZ) Advisories", is being generated and provided on using the satellite data and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools since 1999 useful for location of fish grounds/aggregation . In addition, the Ocean State Forecast (OSF) (wave height and direction, wind speed and direction, ocean currents, sea surface temperature, depth of mixed layer and thermo cline, sea level at major and minor ports, etc. is also being provided to fisherman. Dr. Harsh Vardhan pointed out that the Indian Institute of Applied Economics had assessed that such services to farmers contribute upto about Two lakh crores Rupees and services extended for the benefit of fishermen amount to over 34,000 crore rupees.

ESSO-IMD, in coordination with State Governments, is also generating forecasts for major pilgrimages such as Amarnath Yatra, Manasasarovar Yatra, Chardham Yatra, Kumbhmela, etc. and also various mountaineering expeditions launched by the Armed Forces for Mount Everest and several other Himalayan mountains. Continuous efforts are on to generate value added forecast products at different spatial scales (State, District, City etc.) and temporal scales (from few hours to 5 days) for all the regions of the country. The tourist city forecasts and their updates in particular are made available through designated state government level functionaries, electronic & print media and for general public on ESSO-IMD’s national as well as regional office websites.

ESSO-IMD has operationalized its location specific now-casting weather service across the country. This service activity currently covers 155 urban centres under which now- cast of severe weather (Thunderstorms; heavy rainfall from lows/depressions over the land) in 3-6h range is issued. Origin, development/movement of severe weather phenomena are regularly monitored through DWRs and with all available other observing systems (AWSs; ARGs; Automatic Weather Observing Systems-AWOS; satellite derived wind vectors, temperature, moisture fields etc.) 

Skill India Mission

Skill India Mission

Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Skill Development & Entrepreneurship Shri Rajiv Pratap Rudy has said that it is estimated that out of 487 million workforce, 4.69% possess formal vocational education. In addition to the challenges of re-skilling, up-skilling and Recognition of Prior Learning (RPL) for existing workforce, as per requirement, there is a need to provide skilling opportunities for approximately 104.6 million people who are expected to enter the workforce between 2015 to 2022. In cognizance of this fact, the Government has notified the National Policy for Skill Development and Entrepreneurship on 15.07.2015, to provide a roadmap to meet the challenge of Skilling on a large Scale at Speed with high Standards to ensure Sustainable livelihoods for all citizens in the country.

In a written reply in the Rajya Sabha today Shri Rudy further said, the Ministry has also launched the National Skill Development Mission to create convergence across sectors and States in terms of skill training activities. Further, to achieve the vision of ‘Skilled India’, the National Skill Development Mission would not only consolidate and coordinate skilling efforts, but also expedite decision making across sectors to achieve skilling at scale with speed and standards. The Mission document recommends an institutional structure at the State level which would be driven by the State Skill Development Mission and would replicate the institutional structure of the National Mission at State level.

In addition to the above, to scale up skill development with initiatives, Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY) has been launched by the Government. The scheme has an outlay of Rs. 1,500 crore, with a target to cover 24 lakh persons within next one year, under skill training (including 10 lakh under Recognition of Prior Learning), the Minister added. 

#UPSC (IAS)-2016 #EXAMCALENDER

UPSC (IAS)-2016 EXAM CALENDER

Elections are about perceptions

A reduction in grievous crimes like murder, robbery and dacoity has contributed greatly to changing the popular perception on the law and order situation in the State

Performance of government matters in Indian elections, but what matters more is perception. The chances of a government getting re-elected are more due to the perception the government creates about development rather than by actual developmental work done during its tenure. True, misgovernance proved costly for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, but what proved even more disastrous for the Congress was its inability to create a perception that it cared for the needs of the common man.

A large number of voters voted for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) by default, as they were fed up with the UPA government. What contributed, however, to BJP’s landslide victory was the perception the party was able to create through an aggressive campaign — of Gujarat being the most developed State in India — and making Indian voters believe that the man who could do that in Gujarat could also change the country. This perception of Gujarat as the most developed State was so strong that that almost everyone believed it, without even checking the claim against reality. After all, there is evidence, including data from the recent State Human Development Reports, suggesting that Gujarat is somewhere at Number 5 or 6 on the development ladder, and certainly not at the top.

Realising the importance of perception in winning elections, the two alliances in Bihar — the alliance of Janata Dal (United) (JDU); Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD); Congress; and Nationalist Congress Party(NCP) (popularly known as Nitish-Lalu alliance) and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) — have already started waging the perception battle as they go into the electoral campaign mode. Nitish Kumar is trying hard to send out the message that Bihar has developed enormously during the ten years of his rule. He emphasises that the period has been one of susaashan (good governance). Of the achievements the government wants people to notice is a significant improvement in the law and order situation. Travelling through Bihar and talking to the people, one would get a sense that there has been noticeable improvement, but does the perception mirror the reality?

Crunching the numbers

We have used data on incidents of crimes released by the Bihar police and the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) to evaluate the claims and counterclaims about the prevailing law and order situation in Bihar. We have looked at the average annual crime rates during the last RJD regime (2001-2004) and during the two terms of the incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar (2005-2009 and 2010-2014).

A comparative analysis of crime rates during these tenures reveals that Nitish Kumar’s performance in improving the law and order situation has been mixed. First, there has been a steady rise in the number of total cognisable offences in the State. On an average, close to 1 lakh cognisable offences were recorded annually during the Lalu regime, which increased to 1.19 lakh during Nitish Kumar’s first term (2005-10) and crossed 1.6 lakh in his second term (2010-2015). Second, grievous crimes such as murder, robbery and dacoity have reduced considerably over the years. The incidence of murders fell during Nitish’s first term but rose marginally in his second term. The overall average is still lower than that during the Lalu regime. The real success of the Nitish government lies here — controlling these grievous crimes has contributed greatly to changing the popular perception on the law and order situation in Bihar.

Third, there has been a consistent rise in cases of kidnapping, burglary/ theft and crimes against Dalits, even though kidnapping for ransom has declined. The Bihar police claimed that the rise could be due to parents filing kidnapping charges in cases of girls eloping. The rise, however, is too sharp for this justification to work. Also, the rise in incidents of theft and burglary has been quite marked over the past few years with, on an average, more than 22,000 incidents recorded between 2010 and 2014, as compared to 13,359 during the last RJD regime.

There has been an alarming rise in crimes against Dalits. Though only a proportion of these incidents would be cases falling under the SC/ST Atrocities Act, the massive rise cannot be ignored. The annual average, which was 1,819 during the RJD regime and 2,821 during Nitish Kumar’s first term, increased manifold to 4,670 between 2010 and 2013. One can expect the BJP and its allies to raise this issue during the election campaign.

Fourth, figures for crimes against women and, specifically, rapes reveal a complex situation, as there seems to be a contradiction between reported incidents and people’s perception as reflected in the surveys. The average number of rapes every year during Nitish Kumar’s first term at 1,030 was higher than that during the RJD rule at 892. This figure came down slightly during his second term to 982 but continues to remain higher than that for the 2001-2004 period.

We believe there could be two explanations for this evident paradox. First, the higher recording of offences could be a reflection of greater reporting, since victims often refrain from officially lodging complaints due to police inaction, social stigma and fear. Thus, this rise could be seen as an outcome of a more secure reporting environment for victims. Second this perception could be based on a general reduction in grievous crimes and not specifically in crimes against women.

These broad trends remain the same even after the mid-year population estimates released by the NCRB are considered.

It would be incorrect to say that the Bihar government has not taken any steps towards improving law and order in the last decade. There is a much better police-to-people ratio now, compared to the past due to an expansion in the police force. The ratio was 1:1223 in 2013 compared to 1:1825 in 2005.

Other steps like reservation for women in police recruitment would definitely help in improving policing, and in increased reporting of crimes and reduction of fear among victims, especially women and those from the lower castes.

Despite these efforts, it cannot be denied that in recent years there has been a spike in crime rates after an earlier trend of reduction. This makes Nitish Kumar’s task much more difficult. Not only does he need to reassure people that the State will not return to the pre-2005 state of affairs, but also convince them about the performance of his own party in recent times.

Accountability with autonomy

By clarifying the objective of the Reserve Bank of India, the monetary policy framework has enhanced its autonomy. Nothing should be done to dilute the authority that goes with this responsibility.

Discussions have shifted from objectives of monetary policy to the appropriate mechanism for formulating monetary policy. In February 2015, the Reserve Bank of India and the Government of India entered into an agreement on a new monetary policy framework. Under this framework, the inflation target is set at 4 per cent with a band of +/- 2 per cent beginning 2016-17. The Reserve Bank of India under the agreement shall be seen to have failed to meet the target if inflation is more than 6 per cent for three consecutive quarters for the financial year 2015-16 and all subsequent years and less than 2 per cent for three consecutive quarters in 2016-17 and all subsequent years. If the Reserve Bank fails to meet the target, it will have to send a report to the central government giving the reasons for its failure to achieve the target and the remedial measures that would be taken by the Reserve Bank.

C Rangarajan

Thus control of inflation has emerged as the dominant objective of monetary policy. This is a welcome step. The clarity with respect to the objective establishes the accountability of the central bank. This also implies that the government will not interfere with any action that Reserve Bank of India may take to keep inflation within the limits

Current Process

What is the process of policy making currently in the Reserve Bank of India? The Reserve Bank of India is not an insular institution. It keeps its ears open. Before any major policy decision is taken, it holds extensive consultations with banks, industry associations, economists and various market participants. It discusses the various alternatives with the Government. The Board of the Reserve Bank of India is not involved in the specific policy decisions. However, the broad contours of monetary policy are discussed at the meetings of the Central Board.

Since 2005, a technical advisory committee comprising of experts, has been set up to advise the Reserve Bank of India on policy matters, particularly with respect to changes in the policy rate. The Committee remains advisory in character and the majority view is not binding. Ultimately, the responsibility for the decision rests with the Governor. The question that arises is whether, in the context of the new policy framework, a change is called for in the process of policy formulation.

Even among central banks across nations that have adopted inflation targeting, there is no uniform organisational structure regarding policy making. While many central banks have set up monetary policy committees, there are important exceptions. New Zealand, a pioneer in the adoption of inflation targeting, which became the model for others to follow, has no committee with external members. In fact, the tenure of the Governor is at stake if the inflation target is violated.

On the composition and strength of monetary policy committees also, there are differences among countries that have taken the route of instituting such a committee. These committees do have external members i.e. chosen from outside central banks. The U.S. has not formally announced an inflation target, even though the Federal Open Markets Committee plays a critical role. It is however, an old institution and its membership reflects the federal character of the central banking system. The membership comprises of either representatives of the Fed Board or the heads of the regional Feds.

The Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission in its report in 2013 recommended the setting up of a Monetary Policy Committee. The Urjit Patel Committee endorsed the idea but had a different view on its composition. If we were to set up a Monetary Policy Committee in India, what should be its composition? The key issue is the proportion of external members to Reserve Bank of India representatives in the Committee. There are three possible alternatives.

Composition of committee

First, the Committee could have a majority of members nominated by the Reserve Bank of India. This will help to fix the responsibility squarely on the shoulders of the Reserve Bank of India for keeping inflation within the agreed limits. The second alternative is to have parity between the members nominated by RBI and the external members. If there is a tie, the Chairperson who is the Governor, can have a casting vote. Even in this set up, the accountability of Reserve Bank of India holds good. The third alternative is one in which the majority of the committee comprises of external members. In this case, the accountability of RBI can be established only if the Governor is given the power of veto.

If the veto power is not given, accountability gets diffused. It can be argued that even such a committee can be held accountable and responsible for fulfilling the inflation mandate. But this would be really difficult. The best option is either alternative 1 or 2. The crux of the issue is accountability. The members can be either full time or part time. If they are full time, the ‘external’ character gets diminished. If they are part time, care has to be taken in choosing members so that they are not connected even distantly with any institution which can benefit from policy decisions.

Role of MPC 

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is identified with its suggestions on the policy rate. However, this does not really exhaust the functions of the MPC. Changes in policy rate do play an important role. They act as signals from the central bank. They also affect the borrowings of banks from the central bank, which, in turn, lead to changes in other rates. Central banks cannot act as King Canute. They cannot simply order the interest rate. They must adjust the liquidity in the system such that changes announced are effective. Without corresponding action on the liquidity in the system, the rate changes can at best have only an announcement effect. That is why in U.S., the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) became important. In the earlier days any announcement in the change in the bank rate by the Fed was accompanied by suitable instructions to the FOMC.

Thus the MPC must focus not only on policy rate but also other important ingredients of monetary policy. After all, with policy interest rates hovering near zero level in the developed countries, central banks are more focused on ‘quantitative easing’. Even though money supply does not figure much in recent policy statements in India, overall liquidity is a relevant variable. Ultimately, quantity and price are interrelated.

Tasks ahead

The recent monetary policy framework, entered into between the Reserve Bank of India and the Government, is an important land mark in the evolution of monetary policy in our country. By clarifying the objective of the Reserve Bank of India, it has enhanced its autonomy. Nothing should be done to dilute the authority that goes with this responsibility. There is some concern whether the pursuit of the objective of price stability compromises its ability to take care of other objectives, most notably growth. This is not necessarily so. So long as inflation stays within the agreed zone, it becomes easy for the central bank to take care of other objectives. It is only when inflation goes beyond the limits, control of inflation becomes the exclusive concern of the Reserve Bank of India. In fact the agreed inflation target of 4 per cent with a band of ± 2 per cent is really liberal. If inflation is allowed to be at the upper band of 6 per cent for 12 years, prices will double. We should actually work towards a much lower level of inflation. Imperceptibly, we have moved away from ‘price stability’ to ‘inflation stability’ as the objective.

However even this task is going to be difficult because of many structural features. Adopting inflation targeting does not make the task of formulating monetary policy any easier. It is true that when inflation stays outside the comfort zone, the direction of policy is clear. However, when inflation stays within the comfort zone, the direction and extent of change in policy rate depends on the assessment of inflation trajectory and the overall economic environment. On this, there can be differences of opinion as we are witnessing today. Any mechanism that we create such as a Monetary Policy Committee should not weaken but, on the other hand, strengthen the hands of Reserve Bank of India to deal effectively with inflation.

(C. Rangarajan is former Chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister and former Governor, Reserve Bank of India.)

Technology for Food Processing

Technology for Food Processing

A study to assess the harvest and post-harvest losses of major crops and commodities in India has been undertaken by Central Institute of Post-Harvest Engineering and Technology (CIPHET), Ludhiana under Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) on behalf of this Ministry. As per the study, major reasons for wastage of food grain produce are poor farm operations like harvesting, threshing, storage, insect/pest infestation etc. In case of fruits and vegetables also there are high losses in farm level operations. As per the report the extent of losses varies from 4.58% to 15.88% in respect of fruits and vegetables and 4.65% to 5.99% in case of cereals.

To encourage investment in latest technology of food preservation, the Ministry of Food Processing Industries is operating a Central Sector Scheme of Cold Chain, Value Addition and Preservation Infrastructure with the objective of preventing post- harvest horticulture & non-horticulture losses by providing financial assistance for setting up integrated cold chain and preservation infrastructure facilities. Under the Scheme, financial assistance is provided in the form of grants-in-aid upto 50 % of the cost of Technical Civil Work and Plant & Machinery in general areas and 75 % in NE and hilly areas subject to maximum of Rs. 10 crore per project. Integrated cold chain and preservation infrastructure can be set up by individuals, groups of entrepreneurs, cooperative societies, Self Help Groups (SHGs), Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs), NGOs, Central/State PSUs, etc.

Under this scheme, the Ministry has sanctioned 138 cold chain projects so far since inception of the scheme in 2008. The Cold Chain scheme has acted as a catalyst in bringing investment in this sector. The total project cost of 138 projects is Rs. 3271 crore with private investment of Rs. 2162 crore and grant-in-aid of Rs. 1109 crore.

In addition, National Horticulture Mission (NHM), National Horticulture Board (NHB), and National Cooperative Development Corporation (NCDC) under Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture and Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) under Department of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce and Industries, Government of India are also providing assistance for setting up cold storages under their respective schemes. 

India Signs Financing Agreement with World Bank for US$ 308.40 Million for National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project-II

India Signs Financing Agreement with World Bank for US$ 308.40 Million for National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project-II

The Financing Agreement for World Bank (IDA) assistance of US$ 308.40 million for National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project-II (NCRMP-II) was signed between Government of India and the World Bank here today. 

The objective of NCRMP-II is to reduce vulnerability to cyclone and other hydro-meteorological hazards of coastal communities in the States of Goa, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra and West Bengal; and increase the capacity of the State entities to effectively plan for and respond to disasters. The primary beneficiaries of NCRMP-II will be coastal communities in the target states benefitting from cyclone risk mitigation infrastructure and early warning systems. The project will also finance technical assistance for strengthening of multi-hazard risk management at the national level and improving the quality of available information on multi-hazard risks for decision making across the country.

NCRMP-II has four components which are: (i) Early Warning Dissemination Systems; (ii) Cyclone Risk Mitigation Infrastructure; (iii) Technical Assistance for Multi-Hazard Risk Management; and (iv) Project Management and Implementation Support.

The project is implemented by the Ministry of Home Affairs through National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). At the State level, it is executed by the respective State Disaster Management Authorities.