Elections are about perceptions

A reduction in grievous crimes like murder, robbery and dacoity has contributed greatly to changing the popular perception on the law and order situation in the State

Performance of government matters in Indian elections, but what matters more is perception. The chances of a government getting re-elected are more due to the perception the government creates about development rather than by actual developmental work done during its tenure. True, misgovernance proved costly for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, but what proved even more disastrous for the Congress was its inability to create a perception that it cared for the needs of the common man.

A large number of voters voted for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) by default, as they were fed up with the UPA government. What contributed, however, to BJP’s landslide victory was the perception the party was able to create through an aggressive campaign — of Gujarat being the most developed State in India — and making Indian voters believe that the man who could do that in Gujarat could also change the country. This perception of Gujarat as the most developed State was so strong that that almost everyone believed it, without even checking the claim against reality. After all, there is evidence, including data from the recent State Human Development Reports, suggesting that Gujarat is somewhere at Number 5 or 6 on the development ladder, and certainly not at the top.

Realising the importance of perception in winning elections, the two alliances in Bihar — the alliance of Janata Dal (United) (JDU); Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD); Congress; and Nationalist Congress Party(NCP) (popularly known as Nitish-Lalu alliance) and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) — have already started waging the perception battle as they go into the electoral campaign mode. Nitish Kumar is trying hard to send out the message that Bihar has developed enormously during the ten years of his rule. He emphasises that the period has been one of susaashan (good governance). Of the achievements the government wants people to notice is a significant improvement in the law and order situation. Travelling through Bihar and talking to the people, one would get a sense that there has been noticeable improvement, but does the perception mirror the reality?

Crunching the numbers

We have used data on incidents of crimes released by the Bihar police and the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) to evaluate the claims and counterclaims about the prevailing law and order situation in Bihar. We have looked at the average annual crime rates during the last RJD regime (2001-2004) and during the two terms of the incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar (2005-2009 and 2010-2014).

A comparative analysis of crime rates during these tenures reveals that Nitish Kumar’s performance in improving the law and order situation has been mixed. First, there has been a steady rise in the number of total cognisable offences in the State. On an average, close to 1 lakh cognisable offences were recorded annually during the Lalu regime, which increased to 1.19 lakh during Nitish Kumar’s first term (2005-10) and crossed 1.6 lakh in his second term (2010-2015). Second, grievous crimes such as murder, robbery and dacoity have reduced considerably over the years. The incidence of murders fell during Nitish’s first term but rose marginally in his second term. The overall average is still lower than that during the Lalu regime. The real success of the Nitish government lies here — controlling these grievous crimes has contributed greatly to changing the popular perception on the law and order situation in Bihar.

Third, there has been a consistent rise in cases of kidnapping, burglary/ theft and crimes against Dalits, even though kidnapping for ransom has declined. The Bihar police claimed that the rise could be due to parents filing kidnapping charges in cases of girls eloping. The rise, however, is too sharp for this justification to work. Also, the rise in incidents of theft and burglary has been quite marked over the past few years with, on an average, more than 22,000 incidents recorded between 2010 and 2014, as compared to 13,359 during the last RJD regime.

There has been an alarming rise in crimes against Dalits. Though only a proportion of these incidents would be cases falling under the SC/ST Atrocities Act, the massive rise cannot be ignored. The annual average, which was 1,819 during the RJD regime and 2,821 during Nitish Kumar’s first term, increased manifold to 4,670 between 2010 and 2013. One can expect the BJP and its allies to raise this issue during the election campaign.

Fourth, figures for crimes against women and, specifically, rapes reveal a complex situation, as there seems to be a contradiction between reported incidents and people’s perception as reflected in the surveys. The average number of rapes every year during Nitish Kumar’s first term at 1,030 was higher than that during the RJD rule at 892. This figure came down slightly during his second term to 982 but continues to remain higher than that for the 2001-2004 period.

We believe there could be two explanations for this evident paradox. First, the higher recording of offences could be a reflection of greater reporting, since victims often refrain from officially lodging complaints due to police inaction, social stigma and fear. Thus, this rise could be seen as an outcome of a more secure reporting environment for victims. Second this perception could be based on a general reduction in grievous crimes and not specifically in crimes against women.

These broad trends remain the same even after the mid-year population estimates released by the NCRB are considered.

It would be incorrect to say that the Bihar government has not taken any steps towards improving law and order in the last decade. There is a much better police-to-people ratio now, compared to the past due to an expansion in the police force. The ratio was 1:1223 in 2013 compared to 1:1825 in 2005.

Other steps like reservation for women in police recruitment would definitely help in improving policing, and in increased reporting of crimes and reduction of fear among victims, especially women and those from the lower castes.

Despite these efforts, it cannot be denied that in recent years there has been a spike in crime rates after an earlier trend of reduction. This makes Nitish Kumar’s task much more difficult. Not only does he need to reassure people that the State will not return to the pre-2005 state of affairs, but also convince them about the performance of his own party in recent times.