India set to become world's fastest growing e-commerce market

To grow from $2.9 bn to $100 bn in 2020, market capitalisation of internet businesses may hit $160 bn

India is on route to becoming the world’s fastest growing e-commerce market, if current projections are anything to go by. This growth story is being driven by robust investment activity in the sector and the rapid increase in internet users. Internet users in India have gone up from 50 mn in 2007 to 300 million in 2014.

Last year, smart phone shipments doubled to 80 mn from a year-ago period. The prospect of connecting 1.24 billion people to the internet may be an opportunity in itself. But what analysts are excited about is the prospect of selling products and services to this digital population. Investment banks believe India is on way to becoming one of the largest internet markets in the world, with implications for consumers and investors.

Morgan Stanley expects the size of the Indian internet market to rise from $11 bn in 2013 to $137 bn by 2020 and market capitalisation of these internet businesses could touch $160-200 bn from the $4 bn at present. Currently, only three internet companies are listed in India but with the pace at which venture capital (VC) firms and private equity (PE) firms are pumping money into India, several internet companies could possibly look at listing in the next couple of years. India’s internet market was at $11 bn (gross merchandise value) in 2013, of which $11 bn was online travel and e-commerce was $3 bn.

As the market matures and more companies get listed, the market cap of internet companies will expand too. Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that India's internet market can grow to $137 bn by 2020 (a CAGR of 43 per cent) and e-commerce will form the largest part of the internet market at $102 billion. In relatively more advanced markets like China and the US, top 30 listed internet companies account for 12 per cent and four per cent, respectively, of the total market capitalisation. Internet commerce tends to account for more than 50 per cent of the market cap among listed internet firms. Morgan Stanley expects India’s e-commerce market (revenues) to grow from $2.9 bn in 2013 to over $100 bn by 2020, making it the fastest growing e-commerce market in the world.

The basis of this argument is the kind of equity investments made by PE and VC firms in 2014. The total equity investments made in Indian internet companies is $4.5 bn. The growth in internet businesses will also give a fillip to other related businesses like logistics and payment solutions

Assessment-led education reform

We must embrace a culture of data-driven decision making, where learning outcomes are the key indicators of quality in schools. We need standardised assessments of student learning

The tenth Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) was released recently. It highlighted yet again that by the end of primary school, nearly half our children are unable to read Class 2 level text and nearly two-thirds fail at basic maths.ASER as a citizen-led survey has done an excellent job of bringing the issue of poor learning outcomes to the forefront of educational discourse in the country. However, we now need to build on it to promote large-scale student assessments that will give us useful data with which to measure and guide our education system.

Today, we evaluate our education system and formulate education policies based on input-based measures. Just as successful organisations do not evaluate their success based on input measures such as amount of raw material consumed or the qualification of employees, our education system cannot continue to measure success by the number of functional kitchens or qualified teachers in the system.

We must embrace a culture of data-driven decision making, where learning outcomes are the key indicators of quality in schools. We need standardised assessments of student learning outcomes that give us a strong, quantitative understanding of where we stand - at the national, state, district, school, student or subject topic level - and use this data to actively to measure our progress as a system and inform our education policies.

A rigorous and credible standardised assessment of student learning at the national level can provide a meaningful benchmark for our progress on education as a country and enable comparison of state performance. The National Council for Educational Research and Training (NCERT) has administeredNational Achievement Survey (NAS) - a full-length examination in language, mathematics and environment studies for a sample of students in Classes 3, 5, 7 and 8 in 31 states and territories - for over a decade. These surveys are conducted once every four years and presently there is a lead time of about two years in disseminating the results to the states.

Recently, in an encouraging move, NCERT enhanced the technical design of NAS as well as introduced modern analysis techniques that enable comparison of student performance over time. It is critical that we disseminate the results in a timely manner to states and districts, so this data can contribute effectively to the policymaking and planning processes.

While NAS can provide useful insights at a national level, state sample-based assessments can focus on regional nuances of each state's curriculum and pedagogical practices. The results from NAS should also be used as a credible benchmark by all states to track their relative performance.

The ministry of human resource development has taken the lead here by providing financial support to states for conducting state learning achievement surveys (SLAS). Some states such as Himachal Pradesh have conducted state-led student assessments in government schools, and have utilised this data to set learning improvement goals. However, many states lack the technical capability to build a robust large-scale assessment process and use results effectively to feed into their planning. We can further strengthen SLAS by extending it to include private schools and building the capacity of state teams to conduct, analyse and use results from these assessments to feed into their education decision making process.

Over the next five years, all states should migrate to census-based assessments that enable tracking the progress of every child while holding teachers, principals and school systems accountable for every child's learning. Simultaneously, teacher capacity must be built to use student assessment data collected periodically to guide everyday classroom instruction.

Further, we must create a culture of assessment-based reform by building the capacities of decision-makers in the education administration to understand these results and use them to create targeted improvement plans.

We can learn from Brazil which introduced Prova Brasil, a nationwide student assessment in 2005 to benchmark the performance of states, districts and schools and plan remediation strategies. Until 12 years ago, Brazil was ranked amongst the bottom of most international learning achievement surveys. Using data generated from Prova Brasil, that measures learning levels of children in Class 4 and 8 in language and mathematics, Brazil managed to break out of that norm.

As our nation prepares to implement Padhe Bharat, Badhe Bharat, which focuses on strengthening foundational skills of students such as early reading, writing, comprehension and mathematics, we should ensure integration of assessments as part of the programme. Assessment results must be used effectively to measure learning outcomes and be converted into actionable plans for improvement. It would be wonderful if the concern over our education system due to the ASER results converts into the use of data for targeted and meaningful improvements.

Higher tax share for states in Budget

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's idea of cooperative federalism is expected to be on display in the 2015-16 Budget with the government planning to transfer more untied funds to states through centrally sponsored schemes. Besides, states are likely to receive a higher tax devolution in line with recommendations from the 14th Finance Commission.

The number of centrally sponsored schemes stands at 66, with states having the flexibility to spend 10 per cent of the total allocation at their discretion but within the overall objectives of the programme. Earlier, there used to be 147 such schemes.


States were allocated over Rs 3 lakh crore funds through the central schemes in 2014-15, over Rs 2 lakh crore of which were tied. States are expected to receive most of the funds as untied in 2015-16.

Officials said the number of schemes could be brought down to around 15, which reflected the priorities of the Modi government and would incorporate flagship programmes launched by the previous United Progressive Alliance government such as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee and the Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana.

In the case of new schemes too, officials said views from state governments would be incorporated within the broad objectives, giving them flexibility for local adjustments.

Besides, the Finance Commission's recommendations are likely to reflect in the Budget, although that will make the Centre's job of reining in the fiscal deficit at 3.6 per cent of the gross domestic product in 2015-16 a little more difficult.

The commission is expected to suggest states' share of the divisible tax pool be raised to 42 per cent from 32 per cent. At 32 per cent, the states' share was Rs 3,82,216 crore of gross tax revenue of Rs 13,64,524 crore in 2014-15. Cess and surcharges do not form part of the divisible pool.

At 42 per cent, states would have received Rs 5,01,658 crore. However, the recommendations will be implemented from 2015-16. The 13th Finance Commission had raised the states' share to 32 per cent from 30.5 per cent.

The commission also recommended switching to an accrual-based accounting from a cash-based system. This might mitigate the practice of carrying over the subsidy amount by the Centre whenever it struggles to meet the fiscal deficit target.

In cash accounting, income is recorded when cash is received and expenses are recorded when cash is paid out. However, in accrual accounting, income and expenses are recorded as they occur, regardless of whether cash has actually changed hands. Many advanced nations follow accrual accounting.

The commission also observed that the many of the subjects in the State and Concurrent Lists of the Constitution had been encroached into by the Centre, which should be avoided. The commission, headed by former Reserve Bank of India Governor Y V Reddy, submitted its report to the government last year, but it is yet to be tabled in Parliament

Government Decides to Infuse Rs.6990 Crores in Nine Public Sector Banks (PSBs)

Government Decides to Infuse Rs.6990 Crores in Nine Public Sector Banks (PSBs) in the Current Year on Basis of New Criteria Based on Efficiency Parameters



Out of the current year’s budget, the Government of India has decided to infuse Rs.6990 crores in nine Public Sector Banks (PSBs) for which orders are being issued. This year, the Government of India has adopted a new criteria in which the banks which are more efficient would only be rewarded with extra capital for their equity so that they can further strengthen their position.

 The methodology for arriving the amount to be infused in these banks has been based on efficiency parameters. First of all, weighted average of return on assets (ROA) for all PSBs for last three years put together was arrived at and all those who were above the average have been considered.

            The second parameter that has been used is return on equity (ROE) for these banks for the last financial year. Those who have performed better than average have been rewarded.   The Government of India is conscious of the fact that a lot of reforms are required in the Public Sector Banks (PSBs).  With a view to crystallize ideas for reforms, recently a two-day Retreat of CMDs of Banks and Financial Institutions called `Gyan Sangam’ was held at Pune on 1st and 2nd January, 2015.  This Retreat generated an agenda in which banks themselves were supposed to undertake certain activities individually or jointly and there were certain things which were supposed to be done by the Government.

                                                  One of the general principle adopted during the Retreat was that efficient banks should be encouraged.  For the last few years, Government of India has been infusing capital to those banks whose equity erosion has taken place.  Therefore, this year, the Government of India has adopted this new criteria in which the banks which are more efficient would only be rewarded with extra capital for their equity so that they can further strengthen their position. 

'Water' Conference-2015 Inaugurated

Uma Bharti Announced the Decision to Restructure and Reshape the Brahmaputra Board

The three – day, 3rd Assam "Water" Conference - 2015 was formally inaugurated today at Guwahati by Union Water Resources Minister Uma Bharti and Union DoNER Minister & MoS PMO, Personnel, Public Grievances, Pensions, Atomic Energy and Space, Dr. Jitendra Singh along with Chief Minister of Assam Tarun Gogoi. Spread over different academic and technical sessions, the Conference will deliberate upon various issues with a focal theme “Management of Water Related Disorders - Urban and Rural”. An exhibition sporting the theme and showcasing the latest technologies in the field of water management is also being held simultaneously. An exclusive gallery called “Brahmaputra gallery” depicting different facets of River Brahmaputra and its picturesque richness was also formally dedicated to the nation here today with the cutting of ribbon and unveiling of plaque by the three dignitaries. Speaking on the occasion, Uma Bharti announced the decision to restructure and reshape the Brahmaputra Board and to bring about upgradation of water resources infrastructure in the region. She also announced the plan to declare Majuli near Jorhat as “Water Heritage Island”. Reiterating that all the schemes of Water Resources Ministry will be North-East oriented, Uma Bharti emphasized the importance of anti-erosion and flood management along the course of Brahmaputra. Dr. Jitendra Singh, in his address, lamented that nearly 33% of water resources in North-East are going waste. This is an appalling situation, he said, considering the fact that a gigantic river like Brahmaputra and an enormous source of water in the region is, instead of being put to constructive use, ending up as a source of destruction, erosion and elimination of water bodies. Dr. Singh said, it is an irony that on the one hand there is so much of excess water and frequent floods, on the other hand, regular uninterrupted tap water supply is available to an extent of hardly 50% and people still continue to crave for clean water and sanitation. To overcome this paradox, he suggested innovative and proactive planning for perspective use. While welcoming the two Union Ministers, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi expressed satisfaction that the very presence of two members of the Union Council on the occasion pointed to the importance of water resource problem that is faced by Assam. He warned that while the damage caused by floods is only temporary, the erosion caused by floods leads to permanent and lasting damage. Shri Gogoi made an alarming observation that over nearly 4000 hectares of land had already eroded in the area and that river Brahmaputra requires proper channelization and reclamation for which he appealed to the Central Government to provide a liberal and free assistance.

PM to Heads of Indian Missions

• Use the current global environment to position India in leading role • "You are vibrant representatives of a glorious heritage" • India has a great responsibility to help the world counter new threats to global peace • India must lead the fight against climate change; love for nature is part of Indian culture The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, today said that the present global environment represents a rare opportunity, when the world is keen to embrace India, and India is moving forward with confidence. Addressing Heads of Indian Missions from across the world, the Prime Minister urged them to use this unique opportunity to help India position itself in a leading role, rather than just a balancing force, globally. Urging them to shed old mindsets, the Prime Minister said they should be quick to adapt to changing global situations. Emphasizing the role of "Heads of Missions" in projecting India to the world, the Prime Minister described them as "shining vibrant representatives" (tejasvi, jeevant anshpunj) of India`s glorious heritage. He urged them to work ceaselessly and with a clear mind, on India`s development priorities, and to advance India`s interests abroad. Speaking of conflicts in the twenty-first century, the Prime Minister said there were new "actors" and new "threats" to global peace and prosperity, and added that India, which always stood for "Vishva-Bandhutva" and peace – the brotherhood of the world – had a great responsibility in helping the world counter these challenges to peace. On the challenge of climate change, the Prime Minister said protecting the environment is part of India`s cultural heritage, and therefore, India must take the lead in countering this challenge, and also work towards a change in global attitudes towards the challenges of climate change. He said Indian culture was replete with illustrations which indicated "prakriti-prem" – "love for nature." The Prime Minister credited the Indian diplomatic community for their success in the International Day of Yoga being adopted by the United Nations in record time, with a record number of co-sponsors. He said Yoga should be projected as a possible solution to common everyday problems of people across the world, including stress management. The Prime Minister said the NITI Aayog has recognized the Indian diaspora as a great strength of our nation, and Heads of Missions must come up with innovative ways, in which to positively build upon this strength. The Prime Minister called for preparing a compendium of best practices of Missions across the world, and spreading them horizontally. He called upon Missions to contribute towards developing a culture for "Swachhta" – cleanliness, and to remain ahead of the curve on digital diplomacy. He urged Missions to maintain digital libraries showcasing the best of Indian culture, and maintaining regular contact with prominent individuals from countries abroad, who visited or planned to visit India. He said relationships have been important for all mankind throughout history, even as humanity has struggled to deal with challenges.

Getting to 'Digital India'

With the economic mood having swung in India's favour, partly by inspired effort and partly by the luck of falling prices for oil and commodities, how can we effectively capitalise on our disorderly yet undeniable potential? Asked by Prime Minister Narendra Modi last October what could be done to promote business in India, the chief executive of Siemens, Joe Kaeser, reportedly said: (a) prioritise, and (b) take one step at a time. Surely good advice, and not just for promoting business and growth.

There's a subtext in that terse advice that we and our governments would do well to deconstruct and internalise. And that is the underlying discipline, process orientation and order in the German work ethic that produces high quality. Other attributes such as thoroughness and being result-oriented come to mind, all of which would do us well, but an essential precondition is the discipline of meticulous, step-by-step process planning and execution for results.

In other words, there are explicit activity flows that extend from where one is to where one hopes to be, the desired ends, delineated in flowcharts that underlie integrated systems. After prioritising and goal-setting, it is these detailed steps that must be articulated before starting out on the first step. This applies to Digital India as much as to any other initiative, such as Swachh Bharat, or energy or transport development.

Where and how do we begin to prioritise? With a focus on productivity, because that may be the best way to escape the boom-to-seven-or-eight-per-cent-gag-on-inflation-bust cycle. To this end, if we can get more things right in infrastructure especially relating to communications to begin with, it will enable growth with less risk of asset bubbles and demand-driven inflation.

To materialise, improvement in communications will need to be in combination with some level of improvement in energy and transport/logistics, to the point where gains from communications are realised. This is likely to happen by improving the extent of realisation for efforts and inputs, through productivity gains from such areas as, for instance, online education, transactions and logistics tracking. In sectors such as healthcare or tourism, productivity could improve with online transactions relating to accommodation, transport and procedures/events. Obviously, there need to be satisfactory facilities and services available to users in these sectors, without which there will be few gains.

The reason for starting with communications is that returns on investment tend to accrue sooner and for a lower magnitude of investment than from other capital-intensive infrastructure such as energy or transport. In addition, this potential is enhanced by the likelihood of significant pay-offs from purely administrative and/or legal changes. This is possible because legacy developments in India in communications are such that the same assets and capital expenditure can result in greater delivery capability - capacity and throughput - from "simply" changing the administrative rules, that is, by framing enabling regulations.

A case in point is the opposition by the department of telecommunications (DoT) to 3G roaming. This kind of restriction results in a reduction in output from investment, because available capacity (that is, a readily usable service) is constrained. Is it likely that the DoT would intentionally deprive the economy of the productivity gains from roaming? Or is it more likely that the motivation to protect the position of the public sector companies, Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) and Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL), and the fear of being accused of giveaways to operators after the accusations in the 2G spectrum scandal have hamstrung decision-making that would be more beneficial for the common good?

Constraints such as these seriously hamper the scope of Digital India, an initiative that would add hugely to productivity when India sorely needs greater enabling capacity for a larger number of young people. Yet high-speed internet, the first item in the Digital India vision statement , doesn't appear to be getting the step-by-step, detailed flowchart approach that will help get us there, despite the hoopla.

Consider the evidence:

• Our spectrum policies are unchanged, with the government expecting Rs 1 lakh crore from the coming auction. Our networks will be deprived of that investment, as they've been deprived of previous payments in spectrum auctions. One estimate is that the investments in networks and equipment, excluding spectrum, amount to $30 billion (Rs 1.8 lakh crore), while cumulative charges for spectrum also amount to the same
  Instead, if authorised operators were able to access broad swathes of spectrum on a pay-for-use basis as needed without ownership, imagine what it could do to increase investment in networks and services.
   
• A 2009 study by ABI Research estimated that operators could save $60 billion worldwide over the following five years from active infrastructure sharing. This assumed active sharing of the entire network, including the radio access networks (RAN) and spectrum. The estimate of incremental savings from active sharing over passive sharing was 40 per cent. If network sharing were adopted on common-carrier, pay-for-use principles, imagine how much more effective coverage in rural/less-populous areas could be, and how the payback potential would improve. A more recent article reinforces this finding, emphasising the benefits to tower companies as well as operators ("ActiveRAN sharing business models can bring benefits to towercos as well as operators"
   
• Digital India needs to have access to more spectrum at less cost to bridge the last mile, in addition to considering other innovative approaches such as cable and satellite technologies, and TV bands that can be used for broadband delivery of TV broadcasts as well as the internet.

In sum, we need the end-to-end connectivity planned and extended beyond the National Information Infrastructure concept down to household clusters and individual households, as well as to commercial and educational units and customer service centres. The regulations and methods that enable structures, organisations and procedures that could make this possible involving government agencies, public sector units, private operators and service providers need to be worked out to get the benefits of a fully Digital India.