Is cancer just bad luck?

On January 2 Science journal published an article that said two-thirds of cancers in adults across tissues are primarily “bad luck”. The research paper — “Variation in cancer risk among tissues can be explained by the number of stem cell divisions” — explains that most incidents of cancer are a result of random mutations in genes that can drive cancer growth. This is perhaps why we come across cases where a person who hasn’t touched a cigarette in his life and has healthy habits sometimes ends up with cancer, while one who is a chain smoker and leads a sedentary lifestyle might escape it.

The research by Cristian Tomasetti and Bert Vogelstein, scientists at the Johns Hopkins Kimmel Cancer Center, has triggered a debate. It has also raised many questions. If most cancers are a result of random mutations, what roles do environmental and genetic factors play? How helpful then are cancer vaccines such as those for cervical cancer? And what about the concept that certain healthy habits and conscious decisions can help prevent some cancers? Last year, for example, Angelina Jolie underwent double mastectomy after she found that she carries the BRCA gene that makes her 50 per cent susceptible to the disease. She took this preventive measure because her mother had died of ovarian cancer at 56. If random mutations are such a significant factor, do decisions like the one Jolie took count?

The answer is yes, they do. Though some quarters have termed the research as “deceptive”, the fact is that the Johns Hopkins scientists have not ignored the environmental and genetic factors. Neither have they discounted preventive measures. The scientists observed that while random mutations are a significant contributor to cancer, one-third of cancers can be explained by other factors or a combination of factors (erroneous and random mutation, environment, lifestyle and hereditary).

The researchers statistically charted the number of stem cell divisions in 31 tissues. They then compared these with the lifetime risks of cancer in the same tissues and found a correlation between the number of stem cell divisions and cancer risk. “The paper is very good in trying to establish that over a lifetime, the more the number of divisions, the more the mutations and the higher the probability of a person getting cancer,” says Saleem Mohammed, CEO of Chennai-based Xcode Life Sciences that runs a DNA-assessment programme which identifies a person’s genetic predisposition for certain diseases. The colon tissue, for example, undergoes four times more stem cell divisions than the small intestine tissue in humans, the scientists explain. And it is observed that cancer of the colon is more prevalent in humans than cancer of the small intestines.

“The fact is that cell division happens all the time in the body,” says Mohammed. Nails grow, dead skin cells fall off and new cells take their place and so on. “During this continuous process of cell division, erroneous and random mutations also happen,” explains Shubham Sogani, CEO of House of Diagnostics and PET Suite, a specialised cancer diagnostic technology at Indraprastha Apollo Hospital in Delhi. “Though the body has its repair mechanism (immune system), which checks and fixes these mutations, sometimes this repair mechanism doesn’t work very well and the mutation in a particular strand of DNA happens again and again and can turn into a malignant tumour.”

Of the cancers in the 31 tissues they studied, the researchers found that 22 cancer types could be largely explained by random DNA mutations (or “bad luck”). The other nine had higher risks than predicted by the number of stem cell divisions, they found. These were cancers where other factors came into play. An example of this is lung cancer, which is linked to smoking. The scientists, in fact, make this point when they say that a heavy smoker not ending up with cancer is plain “good luck” because the chances that he will are actually high.

“At least one-third of all cancers are preventable,” says Indu Aggarwal, senior medical officer in the department of preventive oncology department at Rajiv Gandhi Cancer Institute and Research Centre, Delhi. “For example, oral cavity cancer, of which we get the maximum number of cases, is almost totally preventable. Nearly 90 per cent of patients who come to us with oral cavity cancer are people who have been chewing tobacco or smoking bidi or hookah.”

Tobacco and alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, obesity and environmental factors such as exposure to radiation, all increase a person’s risk of getting cancer. There is enough evidence to prove this. In Punjab’s Muktsar belt, for example, contamination of ground water by pesticides has led to an alarming rise in the number of cancer cases. In other cancers, such as those of the breast, cervix and pancreas, genetics comes into play. “Besides a person’s genetic predisposition to cancer, a family history of cancer can also increase the risk because the family might be sharing the same environment,” says Aggarwal.

So what is the point that the study makes? It says a majority of cancers are not in our control and can be triggered randomly by erroneous mutations — the “bad luck” factor. So, besides focusing on prevention, medical science and cancer research has to start working harder to detect and treat cancer at an early stage when it is curable. This is where the importance of cancer screening comes in.

While we are still at an early stage of trying to understand the intricacies and causes of cancer, testing for genetic propensity, making lifestyle changes and cancer screening can equip a person to prevent or fight the disease better. “Freak accidents, like random mutations, can happen,” says Sogani. “But that doesn’t mean we stop being cautious when we are on the road.”

Getting cancer is like being in a car accident

To address the barrage of questions coming their way since their report was published, the two scientists from Johns Hopkins have compared the possibility of getting cancer to getting into a car accident. Through a press release issued by Johns Hopkins Medicine, they explain this analogy by taking three factors into account: the length of the trip, the condition of the road and the condition of the car. The length of the trip is compared to the number of stem cell divisions and random mutations. The road conditions are likened to the environmental factors. And, “the mechanical condition of the car is a metaphor for the inherited genetic factors,” they write. The longer the trip, the higher the risk of an accident, they explain. If the condition of the road is bad, then again the risk is higher, as it is if the condition of the car is bad — like poor brakes or worn tires. However, even with “bad road conditions and driving a car in disrepair, the length of the trip plays a significant role,” they write. That’s because the risk of meeting with an accident on a very short trip, even if the road and car conditions are poor, is far less, they say. “Using this analogy, we would estimate that two-thirds of the risk of getting into an accident is attributable to the length of the trip (random mutations). The rest of the risk comes from bad cars (inherited gene mutations), bad roads (environmental factors) and other factors.” So, it it or isn’t it in our control? “Some have misunderstood our research to say that two-thirds of cancer cases are due to bad luck,” write the scientists. But just like every car accident, every cancer is also caused by a combination of factors, they explain. To know what portion of accidents (cancers) are due to each of these factors would require the kind of knowledge that science and scientists are still seeking. However, while some risk factors are outside our control, others aren’t. Just as driving a better maintained car and choosing a smoother route would reduce the risk of meeting with an accident, maintaining a healthy lifestyle and eliminating unhealthy environmental factors can similarly reduce the risk of cancer. This, say the researchers, is called “primary prevention”. “Quitting smoking is one valuable example of primary prevention,” they write. Then, there is secondary prevention”, which is detecting and treating cancers early.

A recent study, which says two-thirds of cancers are a result of random mutations, also makes a case for the prevention, early detection and treatment of the disease

The great Indian addiction

Time was when the weather was considered the perfect conversation starter between strangers. That has now changed in India. Who needs boring weather, when that great addiction of ours, the far more exciting elections, is always handy? Indians are election junkies, and that includes all of us - political parties, aspirants for seats, pollsters, pundits parsing straws in the wind, polls, results, anything really, and average citizenry who find the ballot dramas played out on their screens and in their papers as endlessly intriguing as family sagas.

This time last year we had barely recovered from the thrill of the five assembly elections at the end of 2013. Voting for the sixteenth Lok Sabha (and four assemblies) was our preoccupation for almost the entire first half of the year. Four more state legislatures were elected in two tranches in the remainder of the year. Thus we very nearly overdosed on our electoral fixes in 2014.

This is a year of slim pickings. Only Bihar would have ordinarily had elections towards the end of the year. But by dissolving the suspended Delhi assembly and holding fresh polls to it next month, the central government and the Election Commission have delayed the onset of withdrawal symptoms.

Four states will elect new assemblies in 2016 and five in 2017. The crescendo will build up to the general election in 2019 with 18 more state elections in the next two years. That covers every single year in the five years between the two national elections. Effectively, we are in permanent election mode at all times due to some or the other important state elections being held in any given year. This has come about because most state assemblies have not lasted their full terms at some time or the other, throwing the election calendar in flux.

The democratic process is doubtless strengthened by such developments. The people get to exercise their choice at frequent intervals. Seekers of political office have to be alert to their needs, at least in theory.

Several other consequences of constant elections are, however, not so salutary. First, as we have already seen, hard but necessary actions are delayed, perhaps inordinately so. Rail tariffs remained unchanged for almost the entire United Progressive Alliance term despite the railways being on the verge of financial ruin because of state elections including those in Bihar and West Bengal, the home states of railway ministers. Subsidies for petroleum products mounted, because some state or the other was always going to polls. Myriad other public policy decisions were dictated solely by populist compulsions, as they continue to do so even now.

Second, political decision-makers take time off for electioneering from their day jobs of minding and running the country. The new prime minister may be a campaigner nonpareil, but the time he devotes to drive his party to sundry victories is at a great opportunity cost for the nation. Disruptions in elected houses are perceived to be indicative of the support of various electoral causes of those engaging in them. Thus, often petty election battles are fought at the expense of greater national good. Since March to May in any year is the preferred time for many elections, the biggest casualty is an informed and detailed discussion of budgets of various states and indeed, the country as a whole.

Third, costs of holding repeated elections have risen sharply. The first general election in 1952 cost a tad over Rs 10 crore. The Election Commission's website states that the 2004 Lok Sabha elections cost Rs 1,300 crore. The Centre for Media Studies estimated that the cost of the 2009 Lok Sabha election was over Rs 10,000 crore, not counting productivity losses. The parties, too, incur huge expenses: recently released data state that the Bharatiya Janata Party spent over Rs 700 crore and the Congress over Rs 500 crore on the 2014 national elections.

State elections would cost a similar amount, and not wholly on a pro rata basis. This huge increase is due to the far more complex process that has evolved over time. At that, one is not sure if it includes all the costs attributable to elections. The very sizeable deployment of security forces and their movement in the field itself must cost a pretty penny, some of it hidden away in other budget heads. Several hundred senior administrators, mostly from the IAS cadre, are taken away from their normal function to act as election observers for up to two months or so. That surely has a cost in terms of temporary arrangements and decisions foregone or postponed. And we are only looking at government costs. When all costs to all agencies are factored in, it should not surprise us if the total is in tens of thousands of crores off rupees every major election year, and steadily rising.

It is time, therefore, when, like the United States, we must think of fixed terms for legislatures, including the Lok Sabha, and holding elections together for the whole country. This is not as impractical as some may think at first, if it is accompanied by some correctives.

The problem of hung houses and loss of confidence can be rectified by enacting relatively simple remedies. If no party or coalition is able to cobble together a majority to be proven by a vote of confidence within, say, a month of the constitution of the house, the body must be directed to elect a leader who enjoys majority support in another month's time. No absences or abstentions would be allowed in this vote. The possibility of no candidate getting a majority could be addressed by a provision of either a run-off between the top two candidates, or recording of second preferences, as is done in case of legislative council or Rajya Sabha elections. The uncertainty thus would continue at worst for two months.

A vote of no confidence, to be effective, must be accompanied simultaneously by a constructive vote of confidence for another leader, as is required in Germany. A government thus cannot be toppled without installing another one and the legislative body need not be dissolved before its term.

Consider the benefits of these not so difficult changes to our Representation of People Act. We will face elections with all their costs and disruptions only once in five years. The legislators and governments will not be looking over their shoulders at all times and be able to address concerns other than the purely short-term ones as they do at present. And a sizeable amount will be saved. But we will need to look for other fixes for our addiction!

Trust the captain on the spot

The recent episode in which a supposedly Pakistani boat destroyed itself at sea, apparently by setting itself on fire, has aroused a great deal of comment in the media. There have been some positive words for the Coast Guard (CG) which responded to the developing situation, such as it was, but also doubts about what had actually transpired. Some suggestions have been made that the boat may have been involved in smuggling and not in possible acts of terrorism as seen in Mumbai in November 2008.

Initially, it was alleged that only the CG and not the Indian Navy (IN), the apex authority for responding to and coordinating responses to developing threats at sea, was informed by the NTRO of the 'intelligence' it had through interception of some satellite phone talk; later, the Navy clarified that it had also received inputs from that agency. Other intelligence agencies denied receipt of any information.

In short, instead of the clear, confident and precise picture that should have been on display, we have a quite hazy and disjointed account in which the bona fides of the incident themselves have been questioned. This is disappointing and some clarity is needed regarding the manner in which potentially hostile inimical scenarios may develop at sea and the responses that these must merit.

In 1995, a good five years after the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) had withdrawn from Sri Lanka, a vague input was received at the Eastern Naval Command (ENC) Headquarters in Visakhapatnam that a vessel suspected of carrying some arms and important leaders of the Tamil Tigers (LTTE) had sailed from Singapore, apparently bound for the east coast of Sri Lanka. Indian naval ships and aircraft were immediately dispatched to investigate this ship, which was intercepted about 500 miles eastwards of our coast, and in international waters which enjoin right of innocent passage. Voice communications with the ship were not sufficiently convincing either about its cargo or destination, and it was ordered to accompany the naval ship to Madras, now Chennai, for further scrutiny; in effect, it was 'informally arrested'. Shortly before reaching port, the suspected ship scuttled itself - i.e., sank. Nineteen persons were rescued from the water but found among those dead was the body of one of the highest ranking leaders of the LTTE, Kittu, second in hierarchy only to Prabhakaran. Clearly, the vessel was heading for the LTTE strongholds in eastern Sri Lanka.

Even though India was not targeted, the purport was criminal. The persons on board were taken to Visakhapatnam, where they were charged suitably and, after a short trial, acquitted by the trial judge, who made scathing remarks on the Navy's illegality in apprehending a ship on the high seas in contravention of international law. Such things can happen only in this country. On appeal, the highest court, mercifully, reversed the ruling and expunged these remarks.

Again, in 1997, reports of arms movement to the LTTE in a vessel, this time sailing from Chittagong, came in. Once again, the ENC sent out a ship and located it in the middle of the Bay of Bengal. The vessel altered course rapidly, seemingly trying to ram the naval warship. A shot was fired to signal our readiness to use force. But having burnt its fingers once, the Navy decided not to bring the vessel to an Indian port but to escort it towards Sri Lankan territorial waters where it was duly handed over to the that country's naval forces and with expected results - the suspected vessel was immediately destroyed. Lessons learnt in the earlier episode helped avoid further strictures and uncalled-for deprecatory remarks. This ship also was in international waters when apprehended and India, though not targeted, discharged its lawful responsibilities.

More such incidents, albeit minor, have taken place. In more recent times a Japanese merchant vessel hijacked by Indonesian pirates in that country's waters was being taken to the Gulf when, based on information received, it was intercepted by in the middle of the Arabian Sea by ships of the Coast Guard assisted by those of the Navy and brought to Mumbai. The captain and crew were tried and released but given our laid-back judicial process had, thankfully, already spent five years in prison before that happened.

In all cases, the suspected vessels were apprehended well beyond our jurisdiction, based on assessment by the captains of our ships that the intent was criminal. There is no illegality in this action whatsoever. Judgment as to whether a vessel is on innocent passage or not cannot be made by people sitting in well-furnished offices ashore or in conference rooms. They have to be made by the man at the scene of action where weather conditions are often poor and communications only intermittent. This responsibility and authority of the person on the spot has been acknowledged and respected since man first went to sea and there is no reason why it must not apply today.

This brings us back to this recent incident. First, full marks are due to the Coast Guard for taking a rather insipid NTRO report at face value and sending an aircraft nearly 350 kilometers away to look for a tiny craft. Second, hats must be doffed to the pilots of the small Dorniers who flew for long periods at an altitude of no more than 1,500 feet and were able to spot the speck in the ocean that the small boat was, and thereafter to track it continuously, no easy task as those knowledgeable about these things can appreciate. Third, kudos must go to the captain of the Coast Guard vessel which, after a journey of several hours, found and stayed with the suspicious craft.

All of these are operational actions and without doubt they were performed very satisfactorily. When hundreds of small craft are operating in close proximity as they do in fish-rich areas, it is easy for smugglers and potential terrorists to slip in as, indeed, they did for the Mumbai attack when the criminals appropriated one of our fishing trawlers and after killing all but one crew, forced the master to take them to their chosen point of disembarkation before killing him.

Some years earlier, in 1993, similar boats masquerading as fishermen had landed tons of explosives on the Ratnagiri coast, which were then transported by road and used for multiple explosions in Mumbai. To locate such nefarious activity in good time and then to neutralise it through preventive or responsive action is easier said than done.

Once an input is received, the agencies concerned must act upon it and, should investigation not merit further action, just forget it as part of a day's work. But if there is even the slightest room for doubt, proactive action is essential. We cannot wait for more than 250 people to be killed in Mumbai before deciding that an act of terrorism has taken place. To stop the miscreants before they can do damage, assertive measures are needed. In this case, it did not matter if the boat was to be used for an act of terrorism or for smuggling or for anything else. There was enough cause for suspicion. The worst possible scenario had to be catered for and actions taken to prevent it and, quite correctly, this was done. Security at sea in the existing environment is serious business and suspicion will often be good enough for firm action. Ill-informed rhetoric will not help; we must learn to walk the talk

Ban ki-Moon: We must continue Mahatma Gandhi's battle for equality

Diversity is one of India's most outstanding features. It is home to a mosaic of peoples from different cultures, ethnic groups, religions and languages.

In India and all countries, individuals are born free and equal. People deserve respect, dignity and security regardless of their ethnicity, religion, sexual orientation or gender identity. The United Nations (UN) defends those rights everywhere - north, south, east and west. Development models must reach all groups. Inclusive growth brings shared prosperity. India has already lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and it can bring the benefits of inclusive growth to millions more.

Yesterday, I visited Mahatma Gandhi's Sabarmati Ashram in Gujarat. I was deeply moved by how they are conserving Gandhi's letters and other precious artefacts. And I reflected on our collective responsibility to conserve the spirit of Gandhi's teachings. He confronted many forms of injustice, including against people who were then called "untouchables". His struggle led to the historic resolution banning discrimination based on caste. Today, India has laws that not only enshrine equality, but also take positive steps to address past discrimination. But millions of Dalits, tribals and others still face discrimination, especially the women. In too many communities, religious minorities also suffer. We must continue Gandhi's battle for equality.

Since, as a young diplomat, I visited Raj Ghat many times, whenever VIPs came, I escorted. As Secretary-General and as foreign minister, I paid my own tribute. If politicians, businessmen or scientists, or whatever professions they do, they practise what he said, I think this world will be most harmonious, and there will be no conflict, no corruption.

I just admire, at that time already, he taught us to keep all this. When I went to the Ashram yesterday, again, I was humbled and inspired. Yesterday, in my speech, I told world leaders: "Let his teachings inspire all of us."

The world faces a global pandemic of violence against women. India has a special challenge. The UN will do everything possible to support government efforts to prevent this violence, protect women and punish the perpetrators. I started a global campaign called the "HeforShe" campaign to change mindsets and mobilise men for gender equality. I thank Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi for his support.

No country can advance as long as its women are held back. I have been saying that, while in our world we use lot of different resources, technologies, the least-utilised resource in our human lives is women. More than half the world's population are women. Then it is only natural that if we cannot give more, then at least they should be given equal treatment, equal status. That is why, as Secretary-General, I have been promoting gender equality and empowerment. I am proud to tell you the UN has changed a lot since I became Secretary-General. Lakshmi Puri is now deputy head of UN-Women [United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women]. It was I who established UN-Women. There were some fractured departments, offices, small or big. I just combined all of them together to establish one big huge department: UN-Women. I applaud the many civil society groups across India that work to empower women and minority groups. Two years ago, Justice J S Verma delivered valuable recommendations to end violence against women in India. I count on the government to act on them.

India has long displayed a commitment to gender equality. The world can thank a daughter of India, Hansa Mehta, for replacing the phrase in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. It said: "All men are born free and equal." Now, it is changed: "All human beings are born free and equal". How appropriate, how fitting it is.

The third area where I see potential in India is sustainable development. When it comes to sustainable development and climate change, I become much more energised than when talking about security issues, because I see much more possibility and hope in the UN's contribution to sustainable development.

The world is now shaping a new agenda to succeed the Millennium Development Goals. I count on India to engage fully in this process. I welcome "Make in India" - I thought it was "Made in India", now it is "Make in India". It is a very good policy of Prime Minister Modi - this national programme to turn this country into a manufacturing hub of the world. I saw the possibilities of this yesterday in Gujarat at the Vibrant Gujarat Summit meeting. It was really vibrating. I think the whole world is now vibrating with this dynamism and vibration.

But, I would add two words to "Make in India" - "Make it Green in India". What about it? "Make it Green in India".

By respecting the environment, India can grow economically while enjoying greater human progress overall.

Climate action can power growth, reduce poverty, improve health and increase energy security. Renewable energy offers huge business opportunities. Energy efficiency reduces emissions and pollution, while increasing productivity.

This year, the world must seize the chance to achieve a meaningful global agreement at the Paris climate conference. That agreement can trigger large investment flows, spark innovation and push low-carbon technologies into global markets. India can be a major part of this new flow of goods and resources.

India has shown remarkable global leadership from Gandhi's time until today. I applaud India for its commitment to the UN. India is ranked at the top of our troop-contributing countries, our corporate Global Compact members, our contributors to the UN Democracy Fund and many other UN initiatives.

The challenges here mirror our global challenges: poverty, gender inequality, discrimination, environmental degradation, extremism and other security threats. The UN is mobilising countries to rise to these challenges in this, our seventieth anniversary year. 2015 is a time for global action. If we rise to the moment, we can address suffering that has engulfed our planet for too long

Seven innovative steps by Suresh Prabhu to transform Railways' security record

The rail ministry last month launched a mobile application for ensuring safety and security of women passengers in Mumbai suburban trains. That, however, was just the beginning. Union minister for railways, Suresh Prabhu has chalked out at least seven key ideas that will be implemented soon to beef up the poor passenger security record of the railways.

The ministry is planning to create a data bank of criminals and ensuring intelligence gathering in advance. The idea is to track criminals expeditiously and arrest them for trial. Prabhu has already sought help from the forensic departments of multiple state governments for creation of the first-of-its-kind databank for use by Railway Protection Force (RPF) and General Railway Police (GRP).

Prabhu’s office is also busy chalking out a plan to roll out “Mahila Vahini”, a specially-trained force to check crimes against women in railway premises and trains. “A proposal for the creation of the Special Force has been sent to both the Finance Ministry and the Home Ministry , ” Prabhu recently said. The issue needs urgent attention of agencies given the recent rise in instances of attacks on modesty of women.

Also, Indian Railways is already working on installing Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) cameras in passenger coaches and platforms after addressing privacy issues to keep a constant eye on criminal activity. Such electronic surveillance to detect criminal activity has already been deployed successfully in the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) network in the national capital.

Suresh Prabhu recently told a gathering of Director Generals of Police (DGPs) of two dozen states he also intends to use ex-army personnel to manage security on Indian Railways network and infrastructure. He has plans to put in place a mechanism for regular sensitivity training for railway security forces to sensitize them of the passengers safety related issues.

The rail ministry is also mulling working out a mechanism for immediate evacuation and shifting of injured persons from railway premises to hospitals so as to save precious human lives .  The recent spate of accidents on trains, including fire in coaches and derailments, highlight the need for such speedy action in the aftermath of an incident.

Lastly, the Railway Minister is exploring the possibility of imposing on-the-sport fine on the lines of traffic violation fine, in case of any security violation .  The ministry is trying to empower the Train Ticket Examiners (TTEs) to move quickly to get an First Information Report (FIR) booked in case of violations and also address the issue of jurisdictional complexities of forces – RPF, GRP and district police.

Jalan panel submits report on cutting expenses, fund distribution

The expenditure management commission, headed by former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Bimal Jalan, on Saturday submitted its first interim report to Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. While the finer details of the report will not be known till Jaitley and his team of policymakers examine it and make it public, the broad proposals suggest ways for the government to reduce administrative costs and disburse funds for various schemes more efficiently.

A senior government official said the commission might submit a few more interim reports to the government, before presenting a final report early next year.

The panel, which includes former RBI deputy governor Subir Gokarn and former finance secretary Sumit Bose, is studying various government schemes, programmes, acquisitions and projects for which the Centre is spending substantially.

The commission is said to have suggested the Centre shouldn't carry forward pending expenditure from a particular year to subsequent ones to show better expenditure or fiscal deficit numbers. Sources say the panel isn't looking at the pros and cons of various programme or criticising the budgetary allocations towards particular schemes.

Rather, it is recommending ways in which the sum allocated can be spent in the most cost-effective manner.

The three broad areas the commission has examined are the delivery mechanism of programmes, the technology being used to implement these, and the accounting methods used by the government.

The government follows the cash-based accounting system, through which income is counted when cash (or a check) is actually received, and expenses are counted when actually paid. An alternative method is an accrual-based system, wherein transactions are counted as they happen, regardless of when the money is actually received or paid.

Officials said the commission has studied the pros and cons of both methods. Their recommendations in this regard, however, couldn't be ascertained.

Jaitley had announced the formation of the commission in his maiden Budget speech, on July 10 last year. "The time has come to review the allocative and operational efficiencies of government expenditure to achieve maximum output," he had said.

The terms of reference of the commission, constituted on September 4 last year, include reviewing all matters related to central government spending, including suggesting space for increased developmental spending and reviewing the budgeting process and norms under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act and suggesting ways to meet a reasonable proportion of spending on services through user charges.

It is also to recommend ways to achieve a reduction in financial costs through better cash management, greater use of information technology and improved financial reporting systems.

THE WAY FORWARD

• Broad proposals suggest ways for the govt to cut administrative costs
   
• Panel has suggested ways to spend budgetary allocation effectively
   
• Delivery mechanisms, technology, accounting methods being studied
   
• Finer details will not be known till FM and team make it public

Not a fine approach, Emphasising hefty fines only enhances corruption

Economists understand that there are essentially two ways to monitor proscribed behaviour. Either supervision can be efficient, and most law-breakers are caught; or enforcement can have giant holes, but those who are caught are given excessively stiff punishments in the hope that this will be a deterrent and affect the gain-loss calculation of potential offenders. Weak states, incapable of proper enforcement, usually take the second route. This has been the state of affairs in India for most of its history. Yet it is being argued that, under the new government at the Centre, India will work towards being a better governed country, and not one that seeks short-cuts. Then why is it the case that the old and discredited method of excessive fines is being emphasised instead?

Several recent changes underline this problem - though not all of them emanate from the central government. For example, it is the National Green Tribunal that has last week imposed a fine of Rs 5,000 on individuals seen putting waste, including "religious items" in the Yamuna river. This has understandably caused a great deal of concern - for example, will ashes or flowers both be cause for a fine? There is also a Rs 50,000 fine for throwing "construction material" in the Yamuna. There can be no question that such practices are problematic - but this will likely be a counter-productive measure, if a cleaner river is the objective. What is needed is more careful treatment of sewage - 2,400 million litres of raw sewage flows into the river between Delhi and Agra. This requires institutional intervention, and the building of sewage infrastructure for the rapidly urbanising floodplain.

Other recent suggestions emanating from the government itself are equally problematic. For example, the government has reportedly decided to amend anti-smoking legislation to include an outright ban on the sale of loose cigarettes. The minimum age for smoking has also been raised, from 18 to 21 - although the minimum age was already largely ignored, as is not surprising in a country where many cigarettes are sold through small retailers in the unorganised sector that it is near-impossible to monitor. And the fine for smoking in public is to be raised fivefold, to Rs 1,000 - and even designated smoking areas in restaurants and hotels are to be removed. This will do little but further enable the harassment of small entrepreneurs by agents of the state, especially beat policemen. There is even a suggestion in the draft amendment to the legislation that there be a ban and a hefty fine for spitting tobacco products in public. Paan stains deface this country - but they are near-ubiquitous. The idea that a ban and a fine will change this behaviour reveals a view of state power that needs to be revisited.

One of the most problematic interfaces between the urban Indian and the state is when it comes to traffic offences. The traffic policeman is often viewed as overlooking most offences unless the person committing the offence looks like an easy source of a bribe. This phenomenon will only intensify if the potential bribe becomes larger - as it will, if fines increase. Yet that was planned - even jumping a red light was to lead to a Rs 15,000 fine. The general approach is clear: to use hefty punishments as a method of dissuading wrong-doing. But the simple fact is that, in a country such as India, where the agents of the state do not maintain a good governance record, this will only intensify the harassment and petty corruption that marks law enforcement. It is unfortunate that the current government, which was voted into office on the promise of better but more limited government, has chosen the opposite approach