17 January 2015

Key Points of PM’s address at Economic Times Global Business Summit




Economy


India is a 2 trillion dollar economy today. Can we not dream of an India with a 20 trillion dollar economy?

You will see India as a country of opportunities, unmatched across the world. India can be a role model of growth and cohesiveness for the rest of the world.

The government must nurture an eco-system where the economy is primed for growth; and growth promotes all-rounddevelopment. Where development is employment-generating ; and employment is enabled by skills. Where skills are synced with production; and production is benchmarked to quality. Where quality meets global standards; and meeting global standards drives prosperity. Most importantly, this prosperity is for the welfare of all. That is my concept ofeconomic good governance and all round development.

Development


Development has to result in jobs. What we need is not just more production, but mass production and production by masses. 

Development seems to have become the agenda only of government. It is seen as a scheme. That should not be the case.Development should be everyone`s agenda. It should be a people`s movement. 

Economic development cannot take a nation forward on its own. We need a society and economy which complement each other. We need to take care of the poor, deprived and left behind sections of society.

The ultimate objective of subsidies should be to empower the poor, to break the cycle of poverty, and become foot-soldiers in our war on poverty. 

We need to cut subsidy leakages, not subsidies themselves.

Governance


सरकारी तंत्र की दो समस्याएं हैं - वे जटिल भी हैं और शिथिल भी; Government systems suffer from two weaknesses. They arecomplex. And they are slow. We need to change this. Our systems need to be made sharp, effective, fast and flexible. This requires simplification of processes and having trust in citizens. This needs a Policy Driven State.

What is Maximum Governance, Minimum Government? It means government has no business to be in business. 

First, we need to focus government on the things that are required of the State. Second, we need to achieve competence in government so that the State delivers on the things it sets out to do.

Reforms


Reforms are not an end in itself. Reforms must have a concrete objective.

Small acts can drive reforms. What appears minor can actually be vital and fundamental. Generating 20,000 MW of power attracts a lot of attention. That is important. At the same time, 20,000 MW of power can be saved through a people’s movement for energy efficiency. The second is more difficult but is as important as the first. Small indeed, is beautiful.

A major institutional reform is the move away from merely planning, to transforming India. The setting up of NITI Aayog, is a step in this direction.

Laws are the DNA of government. They must evolve with time.

Finance


We are committed to achieving the fiscal deficit target announced in the budget.

We are today a nearly 100% banked country. 

Financial unity - bringing everyone into the financial system - is one cause which both capitalists and socialists agree on. What, my friends, can be a bigger reform?

The consensus we arrived with States for amending the Constitution to implement GST is a major breakthrough. This alone has the potential to make India competitive and attractive for investment.

Today, India’s cooking gas subsidy is the world’s largest Cash Transfer Programme.

I recently assured Public Sector Banks they will have total autonomy in taking business decisions.

Sectoral


The mantra of independence was Satyagraha. And the warriors were Satyagrahis. The mantra of New Age India must beSwachhagrah. And the warriors will be Swachhagrahis.

People must understand the Clean Ganga program, as an economic activity also. The Gangetic plains account for 40% of our population. They have over one hundred towns, and thousands of villages.

I intend to launch a massive National Program for PDS Computerisation. 

Railway stations can become growth points for the nearby villages.

We will link farmers to global markets. We will give the world the Taste of India. 

National Common Market for Agricultural Commodities and Improve the Supply Chain

Our Aim is to move Towards National Common Market for Agricultural Commodities and Improve the Supply Chain: FM
The Union Finance Minister Shri Arun Jaitley said that our aim is to move towards National Common Market for agricultural commodities and improve the supply chain. He said that with the cooperation of States, we propose to move ahead on GST and APMC reforms. The Finance Minister Shri Jaitley was making the Opening Remarks during his Pre Budget Consultative Meeting with the representatives of Agriculture Groups here today.

The Finance Minister Shri Jaitley informed that the Government has taken a number of measures/policy decisions in last few months to make the agriculture sector more vibrant including setting-up of ‘Warehouse Infrastructure Fund’ and ‘Long Term Rural Credit Fund’, of about Rs. 5000 crore each; and setting-up of special fund of Rs. 2000 crore under NABARD, which was announced in the Union Budget for 2014-15 to provide affordable credit to agro-processing units, setting-up of food parks and cold chain projects. He said that the Revised Kisan Credit Card (KCC) Scheme has been re-launched where in the cards have been converted into ATM enabled debit card with facilities of one-time documentation, built-in cost escalation in the limit and any number of drawls with the limit etc. Shri Jaitley further said that other initiatives include setting-up of Agriculture Universities in Andhra Pradesh (AP ) & Rajasthan, scheme to issue soil health card to every farmer, establishing National Adaptation Fund for climate change, providing finance to five (5) lakh joint farming groups of Bhoomi Heen Kisan, establishing Price Stabilization Fund, and Kisan TV channel among others.

The Finance Minister Shri Jaitley said that as per estimates of GDP for the second quarter, (July-September) of 2014-15, the growth in the agriculture and allied sector was 3.2 per cent. He said that following the below normal monsoon, the production of total kharif foodgrains is estimated to be 120.27 million tons during 2014-15 as compared to 129.32 million tons in 2013-14 and 117.18 million tons in 2012-13. He further said that although rainfall deficit was worst felt in Haryana, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, the impact on production was limited, as most of the crops in these States are grown under irrigated conditions. He said that allied sectors of agriculture have also shown a good performance.

The Finance Minister Shri Jaitley said that exports have shown a 3.1% growth rate (up to November 2014) and growth rate of imports was 4.4% during the same period. He said that as per the provisions figures available, as against the farm credit target of Rs. 8,00,000 crore for the year 2014-15, an amount of Rs. 3,70,828.60 crore has been disbursed till 30th September, 2014.

The meeting was attended among others by Shri Jayant Sinha, Minister of State for Finance, Shri Rajiv Mehrishi, Finance Secretary, Shri Ashish Bahuguna, Agriculture Secretary, Dr. Arvind Subramanian, Chief Economic Adviser, and Shri R.K.Jha, Additional Secretary (Expenditure). The representatives of the Agriculture sector present during the meeting included Shri Crispino Lobo, Managing Trustee, WOTR, Dr. Dinesh, Chief Executive, National Cooperative Union of India, Shri Vijayan Rajes, President, United Planters Association of South India, Shri Gulshan John, Chairperson, All India Spices Exporter Forum, Dr. Baldev Singh Dhillon, Vice Chancellor, PAU, Shri Tushar Shah, Principal Scientist, International Water Management Institute, Shri S. Ayyappan, Secretary (DARE) & DG, ICAR, Shri Keshab Das, GIDR, Dr. Ashok Vishandass, Chairman, CACP, Dr. K.V. Prabhu, Joint Director (Research, IARI, Shri Devesh Roy, IFPRI, Shri Ajay Vir Jakhar, Chairman, Bharat Krishak Samaj, Shri Harish Damodaran, Indian Express, Shri Rakesh Kapur, MD, IFFCO, Shri A. Vellayan, Chairman, Coromandel Int Ltd, Shri Satish Chander, DG, Fertilizer Association of India, Dr. Y. Sivaji, Chairman, Kisan Foundation and Shri Ram Pal, Kisan Mahapanchayat among others.

Many suggestions were received from the representatives of Agriculture sector. Major suggestions include fixation of remuneration prices for agriculture crops, incentives to encourage agriculture research, education and extension activities including investments in technological innovations and advancement in agriculture research; and impetus to micro irrigation financing, R&D support to Pradhan Mnatri Krishi Sanchai Yojana and strengthening of existing irrigation facilities among others.

Other suggestions include that Government come out with dependable and creditable export and import policies that safeguard farmer’s interest, decentralization of food grain procurement, Minimum Support Price (MSP) to include cost of production and profitability for farmers and be linked to the index of inflation. Some other suggestions include taxation of foreign dividends at reduced rates with multi-state cooperatives, extension of investment allowance to cooperative societies in the manufacturing sector, flexibility of the automatic approval route be extended to multi state cooperative societies at par with corporate and LLP’s under different FEMA regulations.

Some other suggestions include greater emphasis on agriculture research and education, allowance to agriculture research, extension and education be raised from the current level of around 0.8% of agriculture GDP to at least 1.5 percent, giving Indian Agriculture Institute the status of ‘Institute of National Importance’, check on mushroom growth on universities and colleges imparting higher education in agriculture including under distance learning mode; higher allocation for agricultural diversification, exempting livestock sector from income tax, incentives for natural resources conservation and farm mechanization, promoting value edition to enable crop diversification and acceleration, strengthening of agro machinery service sectors and clear policy for genetically modified crops and compensation to farmers in border areas among others. It was also suggested that ICAR laboratories whenever releasing new varieties of different crops from time to time should also inform about the cost of production and productivity along with that. Other suggestions include higher allocations to ICAR, restructuring of ICAR and strengthening of agriculture extension services, setting-up of seed processing and soil fertility measure plants at Panchayat level, eco friendly grain storage at farm levels and serious efforts on part of the Government to bring industry and agriculture closer to each other among others. 

15 January 2015

Meningitis: Indian vaccine will protect infants also

The vaccine, which is heat stable, is a great Indian success story

A meningitis A vaccine (MenAfriVac) manufactured by Serum Institute of India, Pune was approved by WHO a few days ago for use in infants in sub-Saharan African populations. The vaccine will be introduced as part of the routine immunisation programme.
“In the four years since its introduction in Africa, MenAfriVac has had an immediate and dramatic impact in breaking the cycle of meningitis A epidemics,” a WHO release said. The vaccine has already been used in those aged 1-29 years. But with the WHO’s approval, the vaccine can be given to infants thereby “protecting million more children at risk of the deadly disease.” About 200,000 people suffer from meningitis every year in the region. The disease kills 20,000 to 25,000 people in the region every year.
“Like in the case of measles, not many meningitis cases are seen in children younger than one year,” said Dr. Suresh Jadhav, Executive Director of Serum Institute. “A mother, who has had meningitis, transmits the meningitis antibodies to newborns and these antibodies protect them for one year.” Every individual living in the meningitis belt (which stretches from Senegal in the west to Ethiopia in the east) gets infected with meningitis before the age of 29 years and hence mothers invariably carry antibodies against the disease.
The WHO has approved the use of a 5 microgram dose of the vaccine for children, which will be administered when theyare nine months old. Immunisation at nine months will help achieve sustainable disease control following mass campaigns that target people belonging to the 1-29 age group.
Explaining the rationale for choosing to immunise at ninth month, Dr. Jadhav said: “It’s one opportunity to treat both measles and meningitis,” he said. Measles vaccination is also given to children at nine months of age.
A booster dose will be given when the child is 12-18 months old. According to Dr. Jadhav, the first meningitis dose will protect a child for five years and a booster dose will confer lifelong protection.
Though a single campaign has been carried outto cover a large population in 15 countries, those born after the campaign have not received the MenAfriVac vaccine and are hence vulnerable to meningitis infection. But with the introduction of the vaccine as part of the immunisation schedule, these children will also be protected.
The campaign mode will continue till 2017 in 3-4 countries per year. The current demand for the vaccine is 50-55 million. Once the campaign comes to an end, the demand will be directly proportional to the number of children born in the meningitis-endemic countries. “Twenty-five million children are born each year in these endemic countries. So 50 million doses will be the demand per year [as two doses are to be given to each child],” he said.
Serum’s achievement
The Serum Institute had successfully made the vaccine heat stable so that it can remain outside the cold chain at temperatures less than 40 degree C for up to four days without the potency getting affected. Before it was made heat stable, the vaccine had to be kept in a cold chain at 2-8 degree C at all time. The vaccine was made heat stable by freeze-drying it.
The Serum Institute successfully demonstrated that the stability and potency of the meningitis vaccine remained intact even when exposed to higher temperature. The heat stable nature of the vaccine proved to be a game changer in meningitis control and made it possible to cover a large number of people through the campaign mode.
“It’s a great Indian success story,” Dr. Jacob John, a former virologist of the Christian Medical College (CMC), Vellore had earlier told this Correspondent. A study published in the WHO bulletin showed that using a CTC approach can reduce the cold chain related campaign costs by 50 per cent

Voting from abroad

Given the large NRI community dispersed globally, this move will undoubtedly have an impact on the country’s electoral politics in significant ways.

The Union government has agreed, “in letter and spirit”, to implement the Supreme Court direction and the Election Commission’s recommendation to allow Non-Resident Indians to vote from overseas through postal ballots. Given the large NRI community dispersed globally, this move will undoubtedly have an impact on the country’s electoral politics in significant ways. Parliament passed the Representation of the People (Amendment) Act in 2010 to introduce Section 20A that enables a person who is a citizen of India, and is away from her ordinary residence in India for employment, education or other reasons, to be eligible to be registered as a voter in the constituency mentioned in her Indian passport: before that amendment, only “ordinary residents” could cast their vote. Although the 2010 amendment intended to include NRI participation in national politics, Section 20A had required NRIs to be physically present in their respective constituencies at the time of elections. Making it impractical for voters, this requirement defeated the intention of the legislature. A petition was filed in the Supreme Court praying that Section 20A of the Act be read down so as to allow NRIs to vote from abroad without having to be present in India. The petition argued that the provision was in violation of Article 14 of the Constitution to the extent that it impliedly treated persons on a different footing based on economic classifications. The Supreme Court and the government agreed with this contention without hesitation.
The traditional argument against such external voting has been that only citizens who are present in the territory and affected by the consequences of their vote should be entitled to vote. As per this argument, since NRIs lacked sound knowledge about domestic conditions, they would be irresponsible in their electoral choices. But this argument is fast being disproved by empirical evidence. With the rapid increase in cross-border migrations, the concept of nationhood and political membership is increasingly being decoupled from territorial locations. India’s move towards enabling voting from overseas is an instance of a larger global trend towards increased citizen participation. The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, an inter-governmental organisation, lists different voting methods that can be employed, such as “personal voting”, where voters can cast their vote at diplomatic missions abroad; “postal ballot method”, where votes are sent by regular post; “proxy vote” and “electronic voting”. From amongst these alternatives, the government has decided to employ the postal ballot route that the electoral system already uses for absentee-voters on official duty.

RBI cuts repo rates by 25 basis points


Encouraged by softening inflation, the RBI on Thursday decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 per cent to 7.75 per cent with a view to boost growth.

The decision to reduce repo rate comes a fortnight ahead of the scheduled date of monetary policy announcement on February 3.

“It has been decided to reduce the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points from 8.0 per cent to 7.75 per cent with immediate effect,” Reserve Bank said in a statement on Thursday.

The RBI has been keeping the benchmark interest rate at elevated level at 8 per cent since January 2014.

The RBI, however, has decided to keep the cash reserve ratio (CRR), the portion of deposits which the banks are required to have in cash with the central bank, unchanged at 4.0 per cent.

Following reduction in the repo rate, the reverse repo rate has been adjusted to 6.75 per cent and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and Bank Rate to 8.75 per cent.

The RBI said that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been easing since July 2014 and was below the expected trajectory and the government has reiterated its commitment to adhering to its fiscal deficit target.

“These developments have provided headroom for a shift in the monetary policy stance,” the RBI added.

The central bank in its fifth bi-monthly monetary policy statement of December had said that “if the current inflation momentum and changes in inflation expectations continue, and fiscal developments are encouraging, a change in the monetary policy stance is likely early next year, including outside the policy review cycle”.

In its public interactions, the RBI functionaries had committed to initiate the process of monetary easing as soon as data indicated that medium-term inflationary targets would be met, the statement said.

Elaborating on the price situation, it said, “Inflation outcomes have fallen significantly below the 8 per cent targeted by January 2015. On current policy settings, inflation is likely to be below 6 per cent by January 2016.”

“The lower-than-expected inflation has been enabled by decline in prices of vegetables and fruits, cereals and the large fall in international commodity prices, particularly crude oil,” the statement added.

The crude prices, barring geo-political shocks, are expected to remain low over the year, it said.

The Reserve bank in December had said that once the monetary policy stance shifts, subsequent actions would be consistent with it.

“Key to further easing will be data that confirm continuing dis-inflationary pressures. Also critical would be sustained high quality fiscal consolidation as well as steps to overcome supply constraints and assure availability of key inputs such as power, land, minerals and infrastructure,” the RBI statement said.

There was a need to ensure that potential output rises above the projected pick-up in growth in coming quarters so as to contain inflation, the apex bank said.

The RBI said it would continue with daily variable rate repos and reverse repos to smooth liquidity.

The central bank will “provide liquidity under overnight repos at 0.25 per cent of bank-wise NDTL at the LAF repo rate and liquidity under 7-day and 14-day term repos of up to 0.75 per cent of NDTL of the banking system through auctions,” the statement added.

Targeting development

We now have a successor to the with a carefully contrived acronym as its name, perhaps to signal what the institution is expected to do. What a pity they did not call it "National Institution for Transforming the Indian Nation", for then I could truly have rejoiced in the acronym!

The name chosen, and the initial appointments of its vice-chairman and full-time members suggest that the government's principal concern is the reform of the institutions, regulations and policies that control the process of economic development in a relatively freer market environment.

How would the products of a commission operating in a freer market environment differ from the Five-Year and annual Plans that we are used to? Basically, one can expect a shift from quantitative targeting and public investment planning to indicative projections and policy guidelines. Five-Year Plans would not have any role in this, though this should not preclude a medium-term fiscal framework for budgeting. One could call it planning without targeting.

However this is not the signal so far from the pronouncements of the government. What we have had instead is targeting without planning. Bold goals - like 100 gigawatts of solar energy by 2022, a pucca house for everyone by 2022, Swachh Bharat by 2019 - are announced with little analysis of resource requirements, intersectoral linkages and the needed policy changes. Hopefully, the (NITI) Aayog will change this.

But will the Aayog have sufficient weight in the policymaking process? The doubts on this score arise from the elimination of a role for the Aayog in Centre-state fiscal transfers and how that affects its role in the internal dynamics of policy formulation in the Union government. Let me suggest that the answer to this also depends on whether the government accepts the proposal to eliminate the Plan/non-Plan Budget classification as recommended by the Rangarajan committee, and its response to the reported recommendation of the that all non-tax transfers from the Centre to the states should be delinked from schemes. These two changes, if implemented, would be a seismic change in the dynamics of policy influence.

The flow of funds from the Centre to the states falls into three broad streams. First is the flow that arises from the award of the Finance Commission in the form of shares in taxes and grants for specific purposes. Second is the flow of discretionary block grants for Plan expenditures that are based on the Gadgil-Mukherjee formula - except for special category states, where the flow is based on an assessment of need. These two streams of funds flow are essentially unconditional.

The third is the flow of funds for central and centrally sponsored implemented by the states. This third stream is essentially a conditional transfer tied to particular uses and with various associated policy conditionalities. The Rangarajan committee recommendation would eliminate the distinction between the first stream and the other two. The 14th Finance Commission recommendation on delinking non-tax transfers from schemes would merge the second and the third stream into one block grant stream.

The two recommendations in themselves do not require the Aayog to give up its role in the fiscal transfers to the states for development purposes. That is an independent decision that the government has made.

Will this reduce the policy leverage of the Aayog? Not necessarily. The erstwhile commission's financial clout vis-à-vis the states had already been greatly reduced with the proliferation of central and centrally sponsored schemes that are projected to account for 76 per cent of the gross fiscal transfer to the states for the 12th Plan. In these schemes, the policy leverage rested largely with the sectoral ministry concerned, for instance, the rural development ministry for Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act. If the reported recommendation of the 14th Finance Commission is implemented, the locus of influence could shift to the Aayog, which provides a space for "cooperative federalism" and could bring the states together on policy guidelines for reaching agreed sectoral goals. Something like this has been attempted in the implementation of the goods and services tax.

In an open economy relying substantially on private investment and enterprise, the government had to exercise influence through its policies rather than through spending programmes. A national institution that has the active support of a powerful prime minister could well be more effective than a commission caught up in the nitty-gritty of scheme-wise Budget allocations.

The Aayog can transform the ecosystem of development policy. But the gains from this would be lost if the rising tide of religious intolerance and obscurantism is not countered. The government has performed better than expected in foreign policy and seems to be getting up to speed on economic issues. However, both of these could be endangered if the narrow and intolerant social agendas of some extremist members of Parliament and fringe groups politically associated with the ruling party are not visibly restrained by the prime minister.

India is a country of many communities (4,653 according to the Anthropological Survey). With development, these communities will inevitably move into each other's social and geographical spaces. The project report for the Delhi-Mumbai corridor, for instance, projects the in-migration of nearly 100 million people into the project area. This will not happen peaceably, unless political process fosters a climate of tolerance of "different diets and incompatible gods" (from "Partition" by W H Auden).

Majoritarian aggressiveness will also have its international impact if it leads to civil strife, disruptions and violence and undermine the prime minister's potential to be a global leader. Moreover, it will complicate matters in relations with neighbours, as critical border areas like the Northeast, Punjab and Kashmir are populated largely by minority groups.

The prime minister and his team must echo what a senior colleague, Sushma Swaraj, said in a recent speech: "The genius of India lies in its ability to absorb and encompass many cultures with whom it has come in contact. At the same time, it has allowed these cultures to flourish as distinct entities based on the principle of unity in diversity." The aspiring youths who voted for Narendra Modi need an India that cherishes and enjoys the diversity of language, culture, cuisine, religion and ethnicity with which it is blessed, and not one mired in social strife.

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