US-China climate deal lowers expectations of strong global climate deal in 2015

The US and China announced a historic and sub-par bilateral pact on climate change ahead of the UN  negotiations that will lead to a new global agreement in 2015 in Paris. The US announced it would reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 24-26 per cent below 2005 levels by 2025, and China announced it would ensure its emissions peak by around 2030.

Together, historically the largest emitter of GHG gases and the current biggest emitter China set an extremely low benchmark for other countries to follow under the Paris agreement. The move drained out hope of a 2015 climate agreement and consequent commitments from countries at Paris that could keep the global temperature rise below 2 degree Celsius.

But, on the flip side, it eased the pressure on India, a far smaller emitter than the US and China, to take on any onerous new commitments in the short run. While India is expected to also put up a domestically decided target soon, it will now have the example of the two countries to also commit to a low-range target. The target could be in terms of only a slower rate of growth of emission intensity or accompanied by a long-off target year for peaking when India’s emissions would peak — a year much beyond that China has announced.

For the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government, still mulling the ideas advocated by its newly appointed minister, Suresh Prabhu to distance India from China and bring it closer to the West, fell apart with the announcement. The joint declaration showed that there were several major issues in the climate negotiations where China, India and the US actually saw eye to eye in aiming to protect their short-term economic interests though not necessarily fighting a robust fight to slow down climate change.

The higher end of the US target of cutting emissions by 26 cent cut by 2025 below 2005 levels is so low that it already has environmentalists up in arms. It translates to a mere 13.88 cent cut reduction below 1990 levels by 2025. The ball for a low-hanging fruit had been set in place earlier by EU announcing that it would only take a 40 per cent cut to its emissions below 1990 levels by 2030, of which it has already achieved around 20 per cent reduction. The US target fell even lower on relative terms to the EU targets. Its new target is less than half of that the EU has promised to take by 2030. Both the EU and the US promised targets are far below the upper range for emission cuts that the UN climate panel had set at 40 per cent four years ago and has now revised upwards.

THE GREEN ROUTE

ANNOUNCED TARGETS US: 24-25% cut below 2005 levels by 2025 China: Peak its total emissions by 2030 and then go below EU: 30-40% 1990 levels by 2030

EMISSION LEVELS IN 2012 US: 16.4 tonne CO2 per capita emissions China: 7.1 tonne CO2 per capita emissions India: 1.6 tonne CO2 per capita emissions EU: 7.4 tonne CO2 per capita emissions

WHERE THEY STAND IN 2030 US: 12 tonne*CO2 per capita emissions with new target China: 12 tonne*CO2 per capita emissions with new target India: 4-7.5 tonne CO2 per capita emissions with business as usual *Approximate figures Source: UNFCCC, Centre for Science and Environment and Government of India

 

Centre for Science and Environment (CSE)’s Sunita Narain lambasted the US-China announcement, saying it was neither “historic” nor ambitious, but just a self-serving agreement between the world’s two biggest polluters. Extrapolating the numbers, CSE said the two countries would converge at 12 tonne per capita of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) by 2030, leaving the world on a trajectory that would take global temperature rise beyond 3 degree by the end of the century.

CSE’s Chandra Bhushan said, “In fact, if India were to follow the principals of this (US-China) deal, then we need not do anything till 2040 and beyond. Our per capita emissions in 2030 will be less than 4 tonne per capita CO2e compared to 12 tonne per capita of the US and China,” he adds.

The Indian government’s earlier compendium of five modelling studies done by different institutions showed that India’s emissions remained between 4-7.5 tonne per capita by 2030. These studies were conducted before the climate change action plans were put in place and India took a target to cut emission intensity of its economy by 20-25 per cent by 2020.

Countries are required to formally volunteer their targets to fight climate change by March 2015 which will form part of the new global agreement to be signed in December 2015. This new agreement is to operate from 2020 onwards. For all practical purposes, the developed countries have already locked down the targets for the pre-2020 period and have steadfastly refused to up them. The US has a 17 per cent below 2005 level target which equals to less than 1 per cent reduction below 1990 levels. The EU has taken a 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 target.

The US and China have announced that they will formally submit these new numbers as part of their voluntary targets for the 2015 agreement. While some countries have asked that such voluntary targets be assessed for their adequacy and equitable burden sharing between countries, and have objected to the move for different reasons. The joint announcement has revived memories of the 2009 Copenhagen deal that brought the BASIC countries (China, India, Brazil and South Africa) together with US, snubbing EU and its allies. The joint US-China decision along with the low EU target promises to now turn Paris 2015 agreement in to a low-ambition deal with the promise of review of the adequacy of such numbers still uncertain.

The risks that diabetes poses for the eyes — and what to do about it

Diabetic retinopathy often has no early warning signals. But when it comes, vision could get blocked completely

Diabetes has emerged as a public health problem globally, more so in developing countries like India. According to projections made by the World Health Organization, the number of people with diabetes in India will rise to 79.4 million in 2030. It was 31.7 million in 2000.

Diabetes affects the eyes, among other parts of the body. However, vision-threatening complications occur when it affects the retina, causing diabetic retinopathy. Sankara Nethralaya in Chennai has been running the Sankara Nethralaya Diabetic Retinopathy Programme for nearly a decade. Major epidemiological studies done under the programme, have thrown up some salient findings.

In people aged above 40 years and living in urban areas like Chennai, nearly one out of four have diabetes. The situation is better in rural India, where among those aged above 40 years, one in 10 has diabetes.

Among those with Type 2 diabetes, nearly one in five in urban and one in 10 in rural India has diabetic retinopathy. Diabetes is more common in upper middle and upper socioeconomic classes. However, once a person has diabetes, everybody has the same chances of getting retinopathy.

Young males with suboptimal glycemic control, hypertension, anaemia and microalbuminuria (kidney damage) are at particular risk. The most significant risk factor among both rural and urban populations is duration of diabetes: the risk is 6.5 times more for those who have had diabetes for more than 15 years. People who get it before 40 have double the risk of developing retinopathy and sight-threatening retinopathy than those who develop it after 40.

Visual impairment occurs in 4 per cent of those with Type 2 diabetes. Diabetic retinopathy is the second most common cause of visual impairment. Cataract is the most common cause.

At the time a person is diagnosed with diabetes, one in 10 would have the kidneys affected (nephropathy) or the nerves (neuropathy). But one in 20 will have retinopathy. Obesity increases the risk. Pot belly, what is clinically called central obesity, increases the risk by two times. Diabetic retinopathy is more common among diabetics who take low-fibre diet (20 per cent) in comparison to those who take a high-fibre diet (15 per cent).

Genetic factors contribute to increased risk while some offer protection. Probably such genetic factors are what offer some protection against retinopathy.

People with suboptimal glycemic control (HbA1c>7) have a higher risk of diabetic retinopathy and those with poor control (HbA1c >8) of sight-threatening retinopathy. There is evidence to show that blood sugar control in the initial years of diabetes offers long-term protection against retinopathy. Abnormal serum lipids (especially serum cholesterol and LDL cholesterol) have a significant role in diabetic macular edema, which involves the swelling of the central part of the retina that results in blurred vision.

People with a combination of suboptimal control (blood sugar, blood pressure and lipids) have a higher risk of both retinopathy and sight-threatening retinopathy. Nearly one in three diabetics with suboptimal control will have retinopathy. In those with early kidney damage (microalbuminuria) the risk doubles. If he has advanced damage (albuminuria) the risk is six times more. In a person with diabetes who also has anaemia, the risk of developing retinopathy is two times more.

Framingham risk assessment scores which take into account age, smoking status, lipid levels and hypertension give a 10-year risk profile of cardiovascular disease. If a person has a high risk score, the chances of his developing sight-threatening retinopathy doubles as compared to people who have low risk.

Abnormal sleep patterns are related to neuropathy and nephropathy. Recent evidence suggests that sleep apnea is related to the severity of retinopathy.

Type 2 patients should have their eyes screened at the time of diagnosis and at least annually then. Children and adolescents with Type I diabetes should undergo dilated fundus photography five years after diagnosis and at least annually then. Both Type 1 and 2 diabetics need an eye examination soon after conception and then early in the first trimester. Thereafter the doctor recommends follow-up based on the severity of retinopathy.

Diabetic retinopathy often has no early warning signals. Blurred vision may occur when the macula, the central part that provides sharp vision, swells from the leaking fluid. This makes it hard to read or drive. As blood vessels bleed, there will be specks of dark spots or clouds, floating in your vision. Sometimes bleeding might be of a severe nature, blocking vision completely: this often happens during the sleep. Even in advanced cases, the disease may progress asymptomatically. Hence, regular eye examinations are important for people with diabetes.

Mild cases need no treatment. Regular examinations are critical. Strict control of blood sugar and blood pressure levels can reduce or prevent diabetic retinopathy. In advanced cases, treatment is needed to stop eye damage from diabetic retinopathy, prevent vision loss, and potentially restore vision.

Asia's future is bright, but it also faces challenges'

There are many similarities and convergences between us. India and ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) are second and third in terms of population. We are among the largest economies and among the three fastest growing economies in this century. Majority of us here belong to the developing world.

We have the strength and the potential of a young population. In India, 800 million people below the age of 35 years constitute a huge opportunity.

We have embarked on a new economic journey in India. We are emphasising infrastructure, manufacturing, trade, agriculture, skill development, urban renewal, smart cities. Make in India is a new mission. We are placing as much emphasis on ease of doing business in India as we are on making policies attractive. I invite you to this new environment in India. Indian companies are also keep to invest in and trade with ASEAN.

I also assure you that there will be major improvement our trade policy and environment. We will also move ahead with connectivity projects with ASEAN with speed.

I also suggest that we conduct a review of our free trade agreement (FTA) on goods to improve it further and make it beneficial to all. I also urge that the FTA on service and investment be brought into force at the earliest.

Many of you have spoken about the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. It can be a springboard for economic integration and prosperity in the region. However, we should aim for a balanced agreement, which is beneficial to all; and, is truly comprehensive in nature, by equally ambitious agenda with similar timelines for goods and services.

To deepen our connectivity, I am considering establishing, with your co-operation, a special facility or special purpose vehicle to facilitate project financing and quick implementation.

However, in this age, more than physical connectivity, we need Information Highways or i-ways. My experience is that even where road connectivity is poor, we can create vast economic opportunities and employment through i-ways.

India is prepared to provide all assistance and co-operation in this area.

ASEAN and India have large cities and are experiencing urbanisation at a rapid pace. This is both a challenge and opportunity. Come and participate in building India's 100 smart cities and renewal of 500 cities.

Science and technology and education are important areas of cooperation. We should think ambitiously of what we can do in renewal energy and energy efficiency. Let us think of a major ASEAN India Solar Project for research, manufacturing and deployment. Space science can give us benefit in many sectors. We should quickly establish the new India-ASEAN Space-related Ground Station in Vietnam and start the project for upgrading the existing station in Indonesia.

As neighbours, India and ASEAN can gain a lot from cooperation in the disaster risk reduction, response and management. India is prepared to offer full assistance in capacity building, co-ordination and response in the region.

We should further enhance our co-operation in health, including traditional medicine, climate change and environment and forests. Agriculture and food security is another area where I see great potential for co-operation, as some of you have mentioned.

We should move quickly towards mutual recognition of degrees. We should conduct more research and exchanges on our ancient links and how our shared heritage can be of use to the modern world.

Skill development is essential for creating employment opportunities for our youth and for our economic development. We should collaborate by sharing our respective areas expertise in skill development.

I personally lay great emphasis on people-to-people contacts. I would like to see increased contacts between students, youth, teachers, parliamentarians, diplomats, media, farmers, artists and experts. Tourism has not grown the way it should. Today, of course, the ASEAN region is the most popular destination for Indian tourists. I want to see further increase in ASEAN tourists in India. In this, the Buddhist circuit represents a vast opportunity.

Excellencies, we pay a lot of attention to economic prosperity and protecting our environment. Do we pay the same attention to the security and safety of our youth? We have received a high level of security co-operation from ASEAN countries for which I am grateful. But, we should further strengthen our co-operation on countering terrorism, extremism, drugs, arms and money laundering.

Excellencies, Asia's future is bright, but it also faces many challenges. Our progress and prosperity depends on peace and stability in the region.

There is wave of change in the world. New realities are emerging in the changed world. Globalisation is a fact of life. We are all affected by it and we have all benefited from it.

And, in this world, maritime trade and passage, and, therefore, maritime security has become even more important. We all have the responsibility that we all follow international law and norms on maritime issues, as we do in the realm of air passage. In future, we will also need this in space.

For peace and stability in South China Sea, everyone should follow international norms and law. This includes the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. We also hope that you will be able to successfully implement the Guidelines to the 2002 Declaration on Conduct and that the Code of Conduct on South China Sea can be concluded soon on the basis of consensus.

Finally, I would like to say that it is a great privilege to meet all of you here. This has doubled my confidence and enthusiasm about our relations with ASEAN.

I assure you of my sustained personal attention to relations with ASEAN so that we can meet our high expectations from this relationship.

Hopes Are Low for G-20 Summit in Brisbane

It will shut down a city for two days, cost hundreds of millions of dollars and oblige 20 of the world’s top leaders to make long journeys to the east coast of Australia. So it would be a bit of a letdown if theGroup of 20 summit meeting in Brisbane on Saturday and Sunday failed to accomplish very much.

Expectations are that the gathering will be a disappointment. Past summit meetings have fallen short of their goals, and the latest meeting will take place when collegiality among leaders is at a low ebb, strained by conflict in Ukraine, territorial disputes in Asia and war in the Middle East.

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Failure of the G-20 meeting would be more than just a diplomatic setback for the countries involved, which include the United States, China, Russia, Japan, Germany and France. If they fail to coordinate their economic policies — the forum’s primary goal — the leaders will squander an opportunity to make the global economy grow faster and improve the living standards of millions of people, economists say.

John P. Lipsky, former first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, has said that the Brisbane summit meeting is a make-or-break moment for the G-20. If the leaders fail to achieve anything concrete, or fail to follow up later, it will raise questions about whether they are capable of working together in service of global prosperity, Mr. Lipsky told an audience in Melbourne this year. During a recent telephone interview, he did not sound optimistic.

“In the way of these summits, agreements will be announced on all the principal agenda items,” Mr. Lipsky said by phone from Washington. “What remains to be seen is whether the specifics will be sufficiently credible and whether they will receive strong enough political backing by the G-20 leaders to make them politically convincing as well.”

The G-20 nations held their first summit meeting in 2008, at the height of the financial crisis, when the world was in danger of falling into economic depression.

Initially, the leaders, including those from developing countries like Brazil and India that had been excluded from the Group of 7 summit meetings — focused on creating a financial system less vulnerable to the kind of crisis that was then raging. Later, a more ambitious goal evolved — coordinating economic policies with the aim of lifting world growth.

World leaders would work together to remove the roadblocks to economic progress, including corruption, trade restrictions and regulations that discourage hiring and firing. Countries would spend more on research and development, create more equitable tax systems, and invest in public infrastructure like transit systems.

The stakes were big. In 2010, the I.M.F. estimated that if the 20 leaders could follow through on their commitments, global growth would have been 2.5 percentage points higher. The extra economic output would be worth $1.5 trillion, the I.M.F. said, while 30 million new jobs would be created and 33 million people would escape poverty.

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The I.M.F. also sketched out a worst-case scenario in which members of the G-20 did not follow through on their promises and growth missed forecasts. The difference between the best-case and worst-case scenarios was $4 trillion in output and 52 million jobs.

In fact, it was the worst-case scenario that proved to be the more accurate prediction. If anything, Mr. Lipsky said, it was too optimistic.

Strictly speaking, the G-20 is not a forum to achieve rapprochement with Russia over Ukraine or adjudicate conflicting claims to waters in the South China Sea. The G-20 is supposed to be about economics and finance. The United Nations is supposed to be responsible for geopolitical issues.

But heightened tensions will inevitably affect the mood in the Brisbane convention center, where the leaders, 4,000 delegates and an estimated 3,000 media representatives will gather. Security precautions will be even more intense than usual because of conflict in Syria and Iraq and heightened fear of terrorism. A public holiday has been declared in Brisbane for Friday.

The government of Australia will spend 400 million Australian dollars, or about $350 million, hosting the event, according to local press reports. That figure does not include what the G-20 leaders and their entourages will spend during the meeting.

The summit meeting is the culmination of intense preparation by officials below the rank of head of state. In September, central bank governors and finance ministers from the G-20 countries met in Cairns, farther up Australia’s eastern coast, and agreed to a range of measures designed to add 1.8 percent to global growth by 2018. This included more investment in public works and measures to combat tax evasion.

But such high-minded policy declarations often prove to be inconsistent with the domestic politics of individual members. Germany, for example, has been reluctant to spend more fixing roads and bridges, even though the government has a budget surplus and can borrow money on international financial markets at interest rates close to zero. Cautious German voters would rather save than invest in, say, their country’s overcrowded public universities.

Mike Callaghan, director of the G-20 Studies Center at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney, said there should be more rigorous monitoring of whether leaders delivered on their promises, and peer pressure when they fall short. In fact, one outcome of the G-20 in Brisbane could be a stronger mechanism to name and shame laggards.

In addition, Mr. Callaghan said, leaders need to spend more time explaining to their own citizens why the G-20 and its aims are important.

“The biggest step is to maintain the momentum, to actually implement these reforms,” he said. “We won’t know that until the fullness of time. It’s going to depend on winning domestic political battles.”

Even under the best of circumstances, the G-20 is an unwieldy group. Unlike the G-7, whose members are all wealthy democracies, the G-20 includes authoritarian countries like China and poor countries like India. But is it all just a waste of time and money?

The G-20 has arguably had a significant impact in addressing one pressing global issue: the fragility of the financial system. G-20 support has been crucial in addressing the problem of banks that are too big to fail, an underlying cause of the financial crisis that brought the world leaders to Washington in 2008 for the first summit meeting. Another likely outcome of the Brisbane gathering will be to endorse rules that further strengthen banks’ ability to absorb losses.

“Has the G-20 done enough to support a vision of well-functioning, integrated financial markets? I would say no,” said Nicolas Véron, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a research organization in Brussels. But he said the progress on bank regulation “has been useful.”

Moreover, he and others pointed out, there is something to be said for getting leaders together in one room where they have a chance to take each other’s measure, where they must deal with each other as mortal human beings.

“Maybe there are too many people attending and too much taxpayers’ money spent,” Mr. Véron said. “But the fact that we have these meetings to discuss the world economy at the highest level with the most important leaders is useful.”

For a public policy road map

The Global Competitiveness Report 2014-15 published by the World Economic Forum (WEF) has ranked India 71 in its Global Competitiveness Index (GCI). This report assesses the competitiveness of 144 global economies based on 12 points. These include institutions, infrastructure, health and education, labour market efficiency, technological readiness, innovation and business sophistication. India was ranked 60 in 2013-14. Now, it occupies the lowest position among the BRICS countries. Russia was ranked 64 in 2013-14, four ranks below India, but is 53 in 2014-15. China is 28. The GCI rankings for 2014-15, followed by , in brackets, the 2013-14 rankings, which were for 148 economies are: Brazil 57 (56); Russia 53 (64); Indian 71 (60); China 28 (29) and South Africa 56 (53).

India’s global competitiveness is inextricably linked to its ability to formulate and implement sound and effective public policies. Public policymaking is one of the most ignored aspects of governance in India. In fact, we have mastered the art of adhocism for governance, with little or no effort to seek empirical analysis in formulating public policy. While all empirical analyses have their inherent limitations, they are indispensable in weighing different options from the point of view of policy effectiveness. Public policy is critical in every aspect of governance, not least for making laws, rules, regulations, executive orders and administrative directions, and for formulating policies of the government. The purpose of public policy is to not only provide answers to all questions, but also to do so by helping the government to ask the right questions in the first place.

Using empirical analysis

In recent times, public policy as a discipline has brought to bear many fields of inquiry with a view to addressing the central problems of governance. Public policy analysis requires a more rigorous approach in which many fields of inquiry, including, but not limited to sociology, political science, law, anthropology, ethics and history besides economics, remain relevant. This kind of analysis and approach to public policy is indispensable for good governance. An example of such a multidisciplinary approach to assessing public policy effectiveness is the recent India Public Policy Report 2014.

There are some pointers in a road map for public policy-based governance. Here are four points, the first being ‘evaluating policy effectiveness through empirical analysis’. It is essential that empirical analysis forms the basis for determining policy effectiveness. For far too long, public policy formulation has been based on anecdotal evidence, perceptions of what might work and what would not, conventional wisdom of our political and bureaucratic hierarchies, and specious forms of populism. But, as we develop and become a more mature democracy in which reasonable people can disagree as to what is the best way to govern India, there is a need to develop a stronger and sounder empirical basis for policy formulation. Policy formulation should move beyond the whims and fancies of power holders or the good intentions of a few individuals. It should rest upon sound institutional basis in which there is both continuity and change over time. A potential advantage of policy formulation through empirical analysis is that it reduces the risk of dramatic changes in policy due to changes in government after elections.

One of the unfortunate aspects of governance in India is that whenever any new government comes to power, be it in a State or at the Centre, it spends considerable time undoing many things that the previous government had done. The strange thing in this approach to public policy formulation is that many a time, the same officers who were involved in policy formulation in previous regimes advocating these policies then end up working to justify why these policies are not good. The root of this problem can be traced to the fact that in the first place, these policies were not thought through properly and were not based upon sound empirical foundations to justify their formulation.

Issue of scrutiny

The second is ‘rigorous legal and constitutional scrutiny before law and policy formulation’. The last few decades of governance in India have demonstrated the growing importance of courts and quasi-judicial institutions. Today, more than ever before, every law, policy, rule and regulation formulated by governments and regulatory bodies is being increasingly subject to rigorous legal and constitutional scrutiny. The typical government response has been that this is judicial activism which is hindering the process of executive decision-making and policy formulation. However, if the executive and the legislature accords more time, thought and reflection before passing laws or making policies, the risk of them being challenged in the courts and the courts declaring them to be in violation of the law or the Constitution, can be considerably reduced. Adhocism, vested interests, biases and prejudices, discrimination and arbitrariness in policy formulation and implementation have made laws and policies more vulnerable to judicial negation. It does not augur well for a mature democracy when every decision of the government ends up being challenged in a court of law. The effective functioning of democracies through constitutional governance presupposes a minimal degree of trust among institutions exercising their respective constitutional duties and responsibilities.

Building linkages

The third aspect is in ‘building linkages among government agencies and academic institutions’. Public policy formulation has been an exclusive domain of government departments and agencies. Historically, anybody outside the government giving suggestions to people in government was not only frowned upon but also strongly resisted. Government agencies including ministries in the Central government and departments in the State government are woefully preoccupied with a range of day-to-day matters of governance. Their capacity and ability to think and reflect on sound public policymaking is minimal not because of any inherent limitations of competence, but due to a lack of time and attention, while dealing with the sheer magnitude of bureaucratic procedures of their own making. Under these circumstances, it can only help the government if it develops strong and substantive linkages with academic institutions, research centres and independent experts. But for these linkages to be effective and meaningful, they should be backed by significant changes in the internal governance structures of government bodies. The advisory role that is hitherto played by people outside the government should give way to a stronger and executive role so that those providing advice feel that their arguments and analysis will be taken seriously and not be set aside after the pretence of consultation leading to an empty and sham exercise in the quest for legitimacy. Public policy should enable people to “speak truth to power.”

Establishing centres

The fourth is in ‘building public policy schools and research centres’. If there is one specific area that is crying for reform, it is the need to establish several world-class public policy schools in India. Interdisciplinary studies relating to public policy, both as an academic programme as well as a research programme leading to cutting edge, empirical and pioneering research in various fields are absent in India. This void is particularly felt in the humanities and social sciences more than in sciences, medicine and engineering. Public policymaking in India, whether it is about building roads, bridges, airports, sea ports, or for that matter, launching rockets and creating nuclear power stations requires not only well-trained engineers and scientists, but also sociologists, anthropologists, lawyers and, most of all, public policy practitioners who can ensure a consultative dialogue among all stakeholders, including government representatives. The heart of a sound public policy programme lies in the amalgamation of qualitative and quantitative methods for training professionals in public policy; a study of economics and sociology, which is critical to the understanding of social and economic development; law, ethics and governance, which are relevant for examining the institutions that are responsible for public policymaking and to what extent transparency and accountability inform policymaking.

The future of governance in India is bound to become more complex leading to disputes and disagreements over different visions of growth and development. In responding to these challenges, the urgent need is for public policy-based analyses in which every stakeholder has a voice and where every voice adds dimension and meaning to the development discourse. The need for ensuring public policy effectiveness is essential to achieve good governance. Otherwise, this goal will remain elusive and our global competitiveness will further decline, as it has been the case for many years.

(Prof. C. Raj Kumar, a Rhodes Scholar, is the founding Vice-Chancellor of O.P. Jindal Global University. E-mail: VC@jgu.edu.in )

One of the unfortunate aspects of governance in India is that whenever any new government comes to power, be it in a State or at the Centre, it spends considerable time undoing many things that the previous government had done.

India’s global competitiveness is inextricably linked to its ability to formulate and implement sound public policies, the making of which is one of the most ignored aspects of governance

After Mars Mission, what is Isro planning next?

On a long table in the office of K Radhakrishnan, the chairman of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), are piles and piles of letters and postcards, and a couple of banners filled with signatures, rolled up like scrolls. Sent by schoolchildren from all over the country after the success of the Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM), officials at the apex space agency are now trying to figure out how to reply to the hundreds of these congratulatory greetings. "On the day of the insertion (into the Martian orbit), we had asked children to watch it in their schools. We wanted to carry the entire nation with us on the journey, and I think we were able do that," says Radhakrishnan who took over the reins of ISRO in 2009.

The encomiums may still be pouring in for the mission, successful at the very first attempt and achieved on a shoestring budget of Rs 450 crore, but the agency has moved on to new missions. All eyes will soon be on theGeosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) Mark III, scheduled to lift off by the middle of next month. There was a time when GSLV launches were a thorn in ISRO's side, after multiple failures, but that jinx seems to have been broken in January, with the successful launch of GSLV-D5. With the Mark III, ISRO would be able to launch 4-tonne satellites into orbit, a huge improvement over GSLV's 2.2-tonne capability and commercial implications. "This mission is an experimental flight with a passive cryogenic stage," says Radhakrishnan at the space agency's headquarters in Bengaluru. The cryogenic stage, which is more complex but also more powerful and efficient compared to solid and liquid propellant stages, is still being developed; when complete, the engine would be three times more powerful than those used earlier, he adds.

K Radhakrishnan

Once it reaches an altitude of 120 kilometres and a velocity of nearly 5.3 kilometres per second, the Mark III will hurtle down into the Bay of Bengal like a projectile. The experimental flight has another critical task: to test the re-entry characterisation of a crew module that would be used for India's human spaceflight mission. The module, designed to carry two or three members, and developed at the Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre in Thiruvananthapuram, would be similar to what would be used in the future. "The velocity will have to be brought down to seven metres per second as it splashes into the sea, using a parachute system. It will then have to be located and brought back to land, and we will know how effective the thermal protection system in the crew module is," says the chairman.

To the layman, there is perhaps nothing as fascinating as the idea of sending humans into space ever since Yuri Gagarin's successful attempt in 1961. In India, preparation began in 2006-07 with a study which estimated the cost of sending a two-member crew in orbit around Earth and bringing them back safely after a stay of a week at Rs 12,500 crore. In the years since, some progress has been made in the critical technologies needed for the flight, though the programme itself has not officially been taken up. Several changes have also been made to the original mandate, with the module now designed to take up to three people and the decision to use a Mark III as the launch vehicle.

One of the biggest challenges will be to "human rate" the vehicle carrying the crew module or ensuring that it is highly reliable because, as former ISRO head U R Rao wryly observes, many people may be dying on the roads every day but even a single loss of human life in a space mission would be unacceptable. The actual flight could take another seven to eight years before which the developmental flight of GSLV Mark III would take place, environmental control and life support systems codified, and flight suit and crew escape module developed. The developmental flight of GSLV Mark III is scheduled for 2016-17.

In a field near Salem in Tamil Nadu, rocks have been pulverised to varying degrees and converted into 50 tonnes of soil to resemble the terrain found on Moon. This is where the indigenously developed rover, which will be part of Chandrayaan-2, is being tested. To simulate the gravity on Moon, a helium balloon lifts five-sixths of the rover's weight. The lander is also being developed and the mission is scheduled to be launched by GLSV in 2016-17.

One of the challenges of the lunar mission, says project director M Annadurai, is to ensure the landing is soft, unlike with Chandrayaan-1. "The equipment has to be safe and the rover has to come out," says Annadurai who was also the project director for the previous lunar mission in his capacity as programme director for Indian Remote Sensing & Small, Science and Student Satellites.Chandrayaan-2 was originally meant to carry a rover and lander developed by Russia but with its Phobos mission failing and a shift in its space programme, it was decided to make it completely indigenous.

Annadurai is also helming the Aditya mission, a satellite which would act as a solar observatory, and is officially scheduled for launch in 2016-17. "We will be going to a point 1.5 million kilometres away from Earth, from which we will observe the sun constantly," says Annadurai, who has been with ISRO since 1982. "Technically, this is a very challenging mission. Normally, any satellite will go around a mother planet but this will be at a point where the gravity of the sun and the Earth will play a role to keep the satellite in place," he says.

The Lagrangian Point, as it is called, is named after 18th century mathematician Joseph-Louis Lagrange, informs former ISRO chairman Rao. Rao retired in 1994, but is involved in projects when he is asked ("Without any fee", he adds with a chuckle). The original idea had been to have a satellite at an orbit of 600 km above Earth which would carry one instrument but this scope was later altered. Rao, now in his 80s, says he was asked to step in when the weight of the instrument kept increasing, which, to him, was unacceptable. "Space scientists have to be absolutely accurate; you can't keep doubling the weight like that!" he says. Since then, it was decided that a bigger satellite would be needed and a number of reviews have been held.

One of the instruments would be used to study the solar corona, the region around the sun's surface, because so little is known about it. "At the top of the photosphere, the temperature is only 6,000 degrees Celsius but when you go down, it's 2 million degrees. So how does temperature flow, from low to high? We have no way of measuring what's happening," says Rao.

At an event in Delhi on Thursday, ISRO scientists also said a rocket to Mercury and another mission to Mars are being considered, according to a report in Mint. Next year will also see the launch of Astrosat, a multi-wavelength astronomy mission carrying multiple instruments to study celestial sources.

If successful, these would be important achievements for ISRO, which began assembling a satellite in industrial sheds in Peenya in Bengaluru, before the present-day campuses were allotted. Rao reminisces about how even a church in Kerala was co-opted as an office because there was no other building in the village that could be used. "The bishop gave us permission, provided we left the pulpit alone, so we placed a bouquet there and began work!" he says.

While ISRO has come a long way from those days, the spirit of frugality continues, as seen in the cost of the Mars mission. "The frugality of MOM has become a subject of study by management schools and our own specialists," Radhakrishnan says. The Rs 450-crore budget included the cost of the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle, the spacecraft, upgrading the deep space network, operational expenses and payments to NASA for using its ground stations. One factor that helped curtail costs was using "the heritage and pedigree of previous satellite systems available to us." The development was also done in just four years. The Maven, while it has a much wider scope, took 11 years, and was also NASA's 22nd mission to Mars.

No discussion is complete without a reference to China and the "space race" but Radhakrishnan emphasises that while China has made good progress in human space flights as this was something it had been pursuing since the '60s, each country has its own strengths and priorities. "Ours is space application; we have been very clear about that. And we are the best there."

Radhakrishnan's tenure comes to an end next month, and it has had its share of controversies after successive GSLV failures and an ugly wrangle involving former chairman Madhavan Nair who alleged that ISRO had "gone to the dogs" after his fellow-Malayali took over. Those days now seem like water under the bridge and Radhakrishnan says a systematic succession plan and leadership grooming programme has been in place since February 2010, perhaps the result of his degree from the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore. "For each ISRO centre, there is a succession plan in place, and it cannot be just one person - there have to be at least a couple of people." He adds that if he wants to be known for anything it would be for grooming young people, "and not for a couple of missions."

Successful missions, though, apart from boosting the morale of the scientists at ISRO, have improved the public perception of the space agency itself, which, in turn, has led to a flood of job applications. "Over 250,000 people have applied for 200 vacancies. Our people are struggling to screen so many applications," says Annadurai. There was a lull in 2007-08 but missions likeChandrayaan have enthused people, he adds. "Even those who work in information technology acknowledge the importance of having a sense of achievement, which is possible to get in ISRO."

It has already tasted success with the moon mission and Mangalyaan. Is man in space the next frontier for Isro

Plan to cut IAS training period

The Central Government on Friday proposed reduction of training duration for Indian Administrative Service officers from two to one-and-a-half years, based on Kiran Aggarwal Committee recommendations, despite reservations of the Lal Bahadur Shastri National Academy of Administration chief.

The Department of Personnel and Training has sought views from State governments by November 30. If no reply is received, it will be presumed that they have no objections.

While the current training duration is 103 weeks, the Kiran Aggarwal Committee in its report submitted in February has proposed 75 weeks. LBSNAA chief Padamvir Singh has proposed 84-week duration.

In his dissent note, Mr. Singh expressed reservations saying: “Even in our discussions with State Government, and Administrative Training Institute representative and pass-outs from recent batches, the general refrain was more towards improving the content and delivery of training and refocusing it to the needs of adult learning.”