15 January 2018

is UPSC JUST MATTER OF LUCK?CAN SOME BEAT IT BY HARD WORK WITHOUT LUCK??????

is UPSC JUST MATTER OF LUCK?CAN SOME BEAT IT BY HARD WORK WITHOUT LUCK??????
READ SOME THOUGHT SHARED BY FAILED ASPIRANTS ON FORUMIAS
ABSOLUTELY TRUE...........................
This game is more luck than one can ever imagine. People who clear it in their first attempt usually talk about their 'strategy' 'unconventional approach' 'unique method of studying' and what not. Bullshit I call it.
This is just Russian roulette.There is no pattern,no strategy, nothing. Hard work- yes. But not everyone who works hard is rewarded equally. Only those who are sufficiently lucky will get their hard work rewarded.
Yes I sound like the fox who said the grapes are sour. Because right now, i am that creature. Didn't the fox work hard though? Didn't it jump many times? But was it rewarded? NO!
And to the coaching people- please don't start over with your 'right guidance' with the right people speech. I was a student of MGP, followed almost every test with my mentors, worked upon the feedback- diagram, heading, underline etc, made diligent notes, did multiple revisions, kept a positive attitude, didn't waste my time with extra material or any vices, didn't hang out with people/friends who could waste my time, prayed daily, had good food as far as possible in Delhi. Put in even more hard work for optional since I had low marks in that in my first attempt.. Outcome- zilch. nada.
I only wish somebody could tell me with full certainty that all my effort would be rewarded.....
.......................................
The only truth about this exam is that there is no certainty, no guarantee, no method. Doing everything well, doing everything required and doing everything recommended still does not guarantee results.
The worse part is that 95% of those who make the cut start glorifying their methods, strategies, hardwork, focus, dedication, self belief and their brilliance. I agree it's just a bunch of junk - all this talk. Because for all that they did, there were probably 4 more people who did the same with the same dedication and hardwork and probably even more, but they lost out on luck. 90% hardwork and 10% luck? But it's a weighted average where it comes down to 50% hardwork+strategy etc and 50% luck.
I have spent 5 years (and counting) in the addiction of this exam and I know that nothing, absolutely nothing can take away this pain, this hurt. No words can help. I can't find an appropriate metaphor but it's probably like a bullet stuck inside ones chest. Can't take it out, can't live with the pain.
But I know one thing. I know it. I don't know if I believe in it or not, because when the time comes, I'm unable to practice this thought immediately to my own life. God/super power is not blind. This amount of hardwork, focus and dedication CANNOT go waste. One never knows where life might give happiness. And where this accumulated karma will shine. But it will. Mark these words. It will.
Mrunal today might be getting a ton more blessings and heartfelt wishes than an IAS officer. I don't know him. I don't know whether he's a happy person or not. But I know some rankers. With the best of cadres, and otherwise too, abundantly blessed materialistically in life - what all one aspires for. But they are not happy. I know that. I know them personally well enough to know this. I am still wearing glasses tinted with the colour of this exam. I am not able to let go. But once I will, I know I'll be able to choose which life is more rewarding and content. A life which has the elusive happiness.
But till the time one is in the pursuit, I personally believe the only goal one can strive for is understanding the true meaning of nishkaam karma. If God indeed said this shloka He meant - you have the right to work hard but not the right over the results thereof. And neither are you the reason for your success and nor should you become attached to inaction.
We're all in the same boat, to be honest. Take your time. Don't listen to any nonsense on how to write the exam. Listen to your heart. And believe that all will be well. That's how the cycle of life and karma completes itself. You can't see the dawn right now but it doesn't mean there won't be a sunrise. Have faith that something awesome will come out of all this hardwork

ई-कचरे की अनदेखी के खतरे

ई-कचरे की अनदेखी के खतरे
उपभोक्तावाद बढ़ने के कारण ई-कचरे का निष्पादन देश के लिए एक बड़ी चुनौती बन गया है। आज हमारी विनिर्माण प्रक्रियाओं को बेहतर तकनीक की जरूरत है, ताकि ई-कचरा कम उत्पन्न हो। एक अध्ययन के मुताबिक भारत में ई-कचरा प्रतिवर्ष पंद्रह प्रतिशत की दर से बढ़ रहा है। इसलिए सरकार को गंभीरता से इस समस्या से छुटकारे की पहल करनी चाहिए।
बेकार मोबाइल, कंप्यूटर मदरबोर्ड, खराब हो चुके फ्रिज, वातानुकूलक आदि ई-कचरा की श्रेणी में आते हैं। आज की तारीख में ई-कचरा प्रबंधन केंद्रों में प्रबंधन के नाम पर ई-कचरे से कीमती धातुओं जैसे सोने, चांदी, प्लेटिनम और पैलेडियम के अंश को निकाले जाने का काम किया जा रहा है। कंप्यूटर के दूसरे हिस्सों को भी बेच दिया जाता है। हालांकि इस प्रक्रिया में जहरीली गैस निकलने की आशंका बनी रहती है। इससे श्रमिकों को श्वसन संबंधी गंभीर बीमारियां लग जाती हैं। इस कार्य से जुड़े लोगों को कैंसर होने की आशंका से भी इनकार नहीं किया जा सकता।
सरकार द्वारा डिजिटलीकरण को प्रोत्साहन देने से ई-कचरे में तेजी से बढ़ोतरी हो रही है। हालांकि बेहतर प्रबंधन से ई-कचरे का नवीनीकरण या कम से कम सुरक्षित निपटान किया जा सकता है। वर्तमान में केवल डेढ़ फीसद का औपचारिक नवीनीकरण किया जा रहा है। लगभग आठ प्रतिशत ई-कचरे से गड््ढों को भरा जा रहा है और बाकी ई-कचरे का प्रबंधन अनौपचारिक क्षेत्र द्वारा किया जा रहा है। लगभग नब्बे प्रतिशत ई-कचरे का पुनर्चक्रण आज असंगठित क्षेत्र द्वारा किया जा रहा है, जिसमें छोटे पैमाने पर कचरा बटोरने वाले भी शामिल हैं। ऐसे लोग कीमती धातुओं को निकालने के लिए जो तरीका अपनाते हैं वह न केवल नुकसानदेह है, बल्कि अपनाई गई प्रक्रिया में कीमती धातुओं का पचहत्तर प्रतिशत हिस्सा बर्बाद हो जाता है।
बंगलुरु में ई-कचरा इकट्ठा करने वाली बारह मशीनें लगाई गई हैं, जिनके जरिए ई-कचरे का निपटान किया जा रहा है। लेकिन मशीनों की संख्या सीमित है। इन मशीनों से दस महीनों में केवल 4.4 टन ई-कचरे का निपटारा किया जा सका। भारत में मुंबई और दिल्ली के बाद बंगलुरु में सबसे ज्यादा ई-कचरा पैदा होता है। यहां प्रतिवर्ष सैंतीस हजार टन ई-कचरा पैदा होता है। वैसे कोलकाता भी इस मामले में तेजी से आगे बढ़ रहा है। कोलकाता में बिजली और इलेक्ट्रॉनिक उपकरणों से करीब नौ हजार टन कचरा पैदा होता है, जिसमें कंप्यूटर और उससे जुड़े अन्य उपकरणों से उत्पन्न कचरे की हिस्सेदारी लगभग तीन हजार टन है।
पर्यावरण मंत्रालय की ओर से तैयार किए गए ई-कचरा प्रबंधन नियम-2016 के मुताबिक भारत में इलेक्ट्रॉनिक सामान के विनिर्माताओं को ई-कचरे के पुनर्चक्रण की व्यवस्था करनी है। इस नियम में ई-कचरे के प्रसंस्करण को लेकर उत्पादकों की जवाबदेही बढ़ाने पर जोर दिया गया है। देश में ई-कचरे के प्रबंधन को संगठित स्वरूप देने के लिए सरकार परंपरागत कचरा प्रबंधक ‘कबाड़ीवालों’ को इस काम में लगाने पर विचार कर रही है। कौशल विकास और उद्यमिता मंत्रालय ने ‘प्रधानमंत्री कौशल विकास योजना’ के तहत अगले दस साल में तीन लाख कबाड़ी वालों को प्रशिक्षित करने की योजना बनाई है, जिससे ई-कचरे का प्रभावी तरीके से निपटान किया जा सके।
ई-कचरे के निपटान के लिए नए नियम पांच साल पहले जारी किए गए थे, लेकिन मौजूदा संदर्भों में इनके बेमानी होने के कारण नए नियम बनाए गए हैं। वर्ष 2011 में राज्यसभा सचिवालय द्वारा कराए गए एक अध्ययन के मुताबिक देश के तमाम कचरा क्षेत्रों के सत्तर प्रतिशत हिस्से पर ई-कचरा भरा हुआ है। नए नियमों में बेकार हो चुके सीएफएल, जिसे कॉम्पैक्ट फ्लूरोसेंट लैंप के नाम से भी जाना जाता है, को भी ई-कचरा माना गया है, क्योंकि इनमें पारा होता है। धातुएं, जैसे कांच तथा प्लास्टिक आदि का दोबारा इस्तेमाल किया जाता है, लेकिन पारा जैसे पदार्थों को न केवल ई-कचरे से बरामद करना मुश्किल होता है, बल्कि ये भूजल को भी प्रदूषित करते हैं।
नए नियमों में इलेक्ट्रॉनिक वस्तुओं के निर्माताओं को विस्तारित उत्पादकजवाबदेही की श्रेणी में रखा गया है। ऐसे उत्पादकई-कचरे के संग्रहण और विनियमन के लिए उत्तरदायी होंगे। ई-कचरे के प्रबंधन के मामले में उत्पादकका उत्तरदायित्व पहले वर्ष में तीस प्रतिशत रहेगा और सातवें वर्ष तक वह बढ़ कर सत्तर प्रतिशत हो जाएगा। वैसे, बड़े इलेक्ट्रॉनिक्स सामान विनिर्माताओं, जैसे सैमसंग, एलजी, वीडियोकॉन, पैनासोनिक, वर्लपूल, वोल्टास आदि ने खतरनाक ई-कचरे पर लगाम लगाने के लिए कदम उठाने शुरू कर दिए हैं, लेकिन इस संबंध में अपेक्षित परिणाम नजर नहीं आ रहे हैं।
वर्ष 2005 में ग्रीनपीस के एक सर्वेक्षण से पता चला था कि ई-कचरे से जुड़े कानून के अस्तित्व में आने से पहले केवल दो भारतीय उत्पादकोंएचसीएल और विप्रो के पास ही पुराने उत्पादों को वापस लेने की व्यवस्था थी। उस दौरान देश में कार्यरत बहुराष्ट्रीय कंपनियों तक के पास ऐसी व्यवस्था नहीं थी। नए नियमों के तहत ई-कचरा उत्पन्न करने वाली कंपनियों को केंद्रीय प्रदूषण नियंत्रण बोर्ड में पंजीकरण कराना होगा और ई-कचरे के पुनर्चक्रण में लगे कर्मचारियों को समुचित प्रशिक्षण देने और उनके स्वास्थ्य का ध्यान रखने की जिम्मेदारी का निर्वहन भी करना होगा। दुनिया भर केई-कचरे में भारत की हिस्सेदारी महज चार प्रतिशत है, लेकिन वर्ष 2014 के आंकड़ों के मुताबिक वैश्विक जीडीपी की तुलना में यह ढाई प्रतिशत है, अर्थात जीडीपी के बरक्स हमारा ई-कचरा बहुत ज्यादा है, जबकि चीन में दोनों का अनुपात लगभग बराबर है। अमेरिका में ई-कचरे की हिस्सेदारी जीडीपी की तुलना में कम है।
पर्यावरणविदों के मुताबिक ई-कचरे को निपटाने या उसके नवीकरण में बढ़ती लागत के कारण विकसित देश भारत में ई-कचरा डंप कर रहे हैं। कमजोर प्रशासन तंत्र, कठोर पर्यावरणीय नियमों का अभाव, प्रभावशाली तंत्र के न होने और अपेक्षया सस्ते मजदूरों की मौजूदगी की वजह से विकसित देशों के लिए ऐसा करना आसान है। एक मोटे आकलन के मुताबिक भारत में हर साल तकरीबन 3,30,000 टन ई-कचरा डंप किया जाता है। इस आंकड़े में अवैध आयात का हिस्सा शामिल नहीं है। भारत में ई-कचरा प्रबंधन के नियम लागू तो हो गए हैं, लेकिन इलेक्ट्रॉनिक उत्पाद विनिर्माताओं और पुनर्चक्रण कारोबार से जुड़े लोगों का मानना है कि किसी लक्ष्य के निर्धारण और उत्पादकों व उपभोक्ताओं को प्रोत्साहित किए बिना देश में ई-कचरे की समस्या का समाधान नहीं किया जा सकता। ई-कचरा प्रबंधन और निगरानी नियम, 2011 के मुताबिक उत्पादकों को ई-कचरे में कमी लाने और पुनर्चक्रण के लिए जवाबदेह बनाना होगा।
देश में हर साल उत्पन्न होने वाले ई-कचरे में सत्रह हजार टन की हिस्सेदारी पुराने मोबाइल फोन की है। इस समस्या ने संगठित पुनर्चक्रण नामक एक नए क्षेत्र को जन्म दिया है। अब तक छब्बीस कंपनियां मोबाइल पुनर्चक्रण के क्षेत्र में उतर चुकी हैं। बाजार में ऐसे मोबाइल फोन भी हैं, जिनके निर्माण में सोना, चांदी और प्लेटिनम के साथ-साथ तांबे जैसी धातुओं का इस्तेमाल किया जाता है। इसमें पैलेडियम तेरह प्रतिशत, कोबाल्ट पंद्रह प्रतिशत और भारी मात्रा में तांबा, इस्पात, निकल और एल्यूमीनियम का भी इस्तेमाल किया जाता है। मोबाइल फोन के प्रिंटेड सर्किट बोर्ड से धातु निकालने के लिए विदेश स्थित स्मेल्टिंग कंपनियों के पास भेजा जाता है। कीमती धातुओं के अलावा एक औसत मोबाइल फोन में लेड और मर्करी जैसे जहरीले रसायन भी होते हैं। यदि सही तरीके से इनका निपटान न किया जाए तो पर्यावरण तथा इंसान के स्वास्थ्य को गंभीर खतरा हो सकता है।
कहा जा सकता है कि उपभोक्तावाद बढ़ने के कारण ई-कचरे का निष्पादन देश के लिए एक बड़ी चुनौती बन गया है। आज हमारी विनिर्माण प्रक्रियाओं को बेहतर तकनीक की जरूरत है, ताकि ई-कचरा कम उत्पन्न हो। हाल के वर्षों में ई-कचरा बहुत तेजी से बढ़ा है। ग्रीनपीस के एक अध्ययन के मुताबिक भारत में ई-कचरा प्रतिवर्ष पंद्रह प्रतिशत की दर से बढ़ रहा है। इसलिए सरकार को गंभीरता से इस समस्या से छुटकारे की पहल करनी चाहिए।

A good year for Artificial Intelligence

A good year for Artificial Intelligence
Significant advances and a rise in AI’s public profile in 2017 meant that governments and policymakers started taking it seriously
The year 2017 was a seminal year for the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI). The buildup of research breakthroughs, academic whispers, and the occasional policy conversation burst into public consciousness. Suddenly, everyone everywhere was talking about AI, what it means, and how it will affect human societies and economies. Jobs, warfare, healthcare, film-making, even art—no area of human enterprise seemed to be immune from discussions of the coming machine onslaught.
Overall, there were three very important outcomes for the field of AI in 2017.
First, technologically, the single most important breakthrough in 2017 was the development of Google Deep Mind’s AlphaGo Zero. AlphaGo Zero built on the earlier astonishing success of the AlphaGo program, which mastered the game of Go—an East Asian game widely believed to be significantly more complex than chess. AlphaGo was taught how to play the game through a database of hundreds of thousands of videos of humans playing Go. This method of training AlphaGo is generally indicative of the process by which AI has been achieved thus far—extremely data-intensive, and dependent to a great extent on humans “teaching” the program.
AlphaGo Zero, however, attempted to move beyond such data dependence by making the program teach itself how to play the game of Go. There was minimal human support, and in Google’s own words, the program “learns to play simply by playing games against itself, starting from completely random play”. This is a significant breakthrough for the field of AI for two reasons. First, as pointed out by Demis Hassabis, the chief executive officer of Deep Mind, it means that future developments in the field need no longer be constrained by the limits of human knowledge or the quality of the data available for training. Second, the overreliance on data to fuel AI developments has increasingly concentrated new research in a handful of big tech companies: Google, Apple, Amazon, Baidu and Alibaba. AlphaGo Zero, by making potential advances less dependent on access to data, could make research more dispersed.
Second, 2017 was also the year when countries across the world began putting AI at the heart of their future plans and policy measures. China released a plan to turn itself into an AI superpower by 2030, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that “whoever becomes the leader in this sphere, will become the ruler of the world”, and India set up its own AI Task Force to study the possible effects of AI on a variety of economic and social spheres. Alongside, the military effects of AI were recognized as a question of increasing relevance for the international community. The UN held the first round of formal talks on the question of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems—weapons that can theoretically act independent of human control via AI technologies, in November. Further talks on this issue have been scheduled for February and March.
Third, an interesting facet of the conversations surrounding AI in 2017, was the climbdown in the latter half of the year from the earlier exuberance, often misinformed, of the capabilities of AI. An increasing number of AI researchers and developers began pointing out that in spite of the significant technological leaps in the last few years, AI is in fact not as smart as has been widely reported and presumed. AI as it stands right now is “dumber than a five year old, no smarter than a rat”. Historically, AI has had numerous boom- and-bust cycles. The current boom cycle started roughly in 2012 with the publication of a set of papers which showed that the then theoretical idea of “deep learning” was now practical. However, last year an increasing number of academics and researchers began arguing that current AI advancements have in fact plateaued, signalling the possibility of a new bust cycle. If so, a new generation of breakthroughs is necessary to continue powering the AI euphoria.
In 2018, it is necessary to talk about AI within the contours of the reality of the technology and its present capabilities. An honest conversation about the possible benefits and drawbacks of AI cannot be undertaken under a cloud of hype and hyperbole—no “killer robots” and no visions of a robot-ruled future. For this, it is also necessary to move past the idea of AI being a replacement for humans across the board, and begin having a deeper conversation about its effectiveness as a tool in the hands of humans.
Finally, much of the discourse on AI thus far has been very Western-centric, with possible effects being discussed in the socioeconomic context of the Western nations. However, it is very unlikely that AI will affect all countries the same way. In 2018, therefore, it becomes very important for a greater number of researchers and academics to study how AI could affect a country as unique as India, and thereby help develop multiple discourses on AI. This has already begun in China, where the state sees AI as central to its continued economic growth and future dominance of global affairs, and is developing a China-centric vision of AI that looks to harness its potential to China’s advantage. A similar effort needs to be undertaken in India in coordination between the government, the industry, and academia to concretely envision how AI might affect various facets of the economy and society, and develop policy measures to ensure a beneficial national outcome to the AI revolution.

Is China bribing its way to superpower status?

Is China bribing its way to superpower status?
The scale at which China is using its capital for securing political influence is unprecedented
In a throwback to the golden days of the Middle Kingdom when foreign rulers brought with them tributes for the Chinese emperor, French President Emmanuel Macron on his recent visit presented Chinese President Xi Jinping with an eight-year-old gelding. Macron hopes that a charm offensive directed at Xi can help his task of reinvigorating the French economy and industries. Airbus, for instance, is betting its future on large orders from China. The French president has, so far, only offered up a horse and has expressed his admiration for Chinese civilization. David Cameron, the former British prime minister—who was announced last month to be taking over a leadership role in a joint UK-China investment fund—went further.
Before Macron, it was Cameron who championed the rise of China, and closer UK-China and Europe-China ties. Among other deals, Cameron approved massive Chinese investments in a nuclear power project at Hinkley Point in Somerset. Controversial on both security and commercial grounds, the deal was deemed not to be in Britain’s interests by many critics. Theresa May, Cameron’s successor, even shelved the project temporarily after taking charge. So, is there a smoking gun to link the Hinkley Point deal with Cameron’s latest job? Not really. But it was reported (goo.gl/ufg2Zn) that the former British prime minister lobbied for this fund to be set up on behalf of Peter Gummer, an old associate of Cameron and donor of the Conservative Party—enough to raise eyebrows.
As the news of Cameron taking over a fund meant to project Chinese influence across Europe and Asia came out, many were quick to draw parallels with Gerhard Schröder, former German chancellor. After losing his office in 2005, Schröeder bagged a job with Gazprom, the Russian energy giant. During his tenure, Schröder had staunchly backed the contentious Nord Stream pipeline that was a joint project of Gazprom with two German companies.
These instances might be from developed European countries—but leaders of smaller, poorer countries are much more vulnerable to the ambitions of a country with deep pockets like China. After being thrown out of power, leaders in a number of countries have been investigated for accepting bribes from Chinese companies. The former president of Sri Lanka, Mahinda Rajapaksa, has been accused of accepting bribes from China Harbour Engineering Company, a subsidiary of state-owned China Communications Construction Company. Rajapaksa’s tenure saw several high-profile Chinese investments in Sri Lanka. Many of those, including an airport and a seaport in Hambantota—the home base of Rajapaksa—have proven to be commercial non-starters. In Nigeria, just three days before exiting office, former president Goodluck Jonathan approved an out-of-court settlement—now being probed by US agencies—between Addax Petroleum (owned by Chinese oil giant Sinopec) and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corp., saving the former millions of dollars.
In 2012, the husband of former Philippine president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was arrested on charges of accepting bribes to push a deal between the Philippine government and the Chinese telecom company ZTE. Mohammad Nasheed, the leader-in-exile of Maldivian opposition, has accused President Abdulla Yameen of corruption in leasing out islands to foreign countries. India, too, was concerned about the Yameen government leasing out the Feydhoo Finolhu island to a Chinese company at a throwaway price without competitive bidding. Known for his proximity to China, Yameen again surprised New Delhi in November last year by passing a free trade agreement with China through the Maldivian parliament in an emergency session called at short notice with most of the opposition members unavailable to attend.
As China pushes its ambitious trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative, such sweetheart deals can be expected in greater numbers. India’s smaller neighbours are especially vulnerable, but New Delhi can do little as it cannot match Beijing’s largesse. India can indeed partner with other countries like Japan and the US to take up infrastructure projects in these countries. But even so, it is difficult to match Chinese state-controlled firms with excess capacity and a bounty of cash to throw at projects and leaders. It is not, in any case, a replacement for the citizens of the host countries realizing that Chinese money unaccompanied by domestic institutional reforms and local capacity development cannot make them rich. Conversely, it can exacerbate local political economy problems by encouraging venality and corruption.
As economist William Easterly has argued, foreign aid discourages the development of the right market institutions that would be required for higher investment flows unmediated by corrupt political practices. China’s support is not even in the form of aid, but through more distortionary high-interest loans. Often, the labour and the input materials in these projects are also sourced from China. Moreover, the investment flow is dictated by political rather than market choices. The result is a host country saddled with white elephants not generating enough capital to pay back the loans. Sri Lanka has already seen these fears come true.
Other countries too make strategic use of foreign aid. The US, most prominently, deploys aid (goo.gl/MSfeh9) to win votes in the UN. Israel does this (goo.gl/oTzyM2) as well. But the scale at which China is using its capital for securing political influence is unprecedented—and the consequences could be deeply felt across the globe.
Will Chinese loans help poor countries build infrastructure and prosper?
Is China bribing its way to superpower status?
The scale at which China is using its capital for securing political influence is unprecedented
In a throwback to the golden days of the Middle Kingdom when foreign rulers brought with them tributes for the Chinese emperor, French President Emmanuel Macron on his recent visit presented Chinese President Xi Jinping with an eight-year-old gelding. Macron hopes that a charm offensive directed at Xi can help his task of reinvigorating the French economy and industries. Airbus, for instance, is betting its future on large orders from China. The French president has, so far, only offered up a horse and has expressed his admiration for Chinese civilization. David Cameron, the former British prime minister—who was announced last month to be taking over a leadership role in a joint UK-China investment fund—went further.
Before Macron, it was Cameron who championed the rise of China, and closer UK-China and Europe-China ties. Among other deals, Cameron approved massive Chinese investments in a nuclear power project at Hinkley Point in Somerset. Controversial on both security and commercial grounds, the deal was deemed not to be in Britain’s interests by many critics. Theresa May, Cameron’s successor, even shelved the project temporarily after taking charge. So, is there a smoking gun to link the Hinkley Point deal with Cameron’s latest job? Not really. But it was reported (goo.gl/ufg2Zn) that the former British prime minister lobbied for this fund to be set up on behalf of Peter Gummer, an old associate of Cameron and donor of the Conservative Party—enough to raise eyebrows.
As the news of Cameron taking over a fund meant to project Chinese influence across Europe and Asia came out, many were quick to draw parallels with Gerhard Schröder, former German chancellor. After losing his office in 2005, Schröeder bagged a job with Gazprom, the Russian energy giant. During his tenure, Schröder had staunchly backed the contentious Nord Stream pipeline that was a joint project of Gazprom with two German companies.
These instances might be from developed European countries—but leaders of smaller, poorer countries are much more vulnerable to the ambitions of a country with deep pockets like China. After being thrown out of power, leaders in a number of countries have been investigated for accepting bribes from Chinese companies. The former president of Sri Lanka, Mahinda Rajapaksa, has been accused of accepting bribes from China Harbour Engineering Company, a subsidiary of state-owned China Communications Construction Company. Rajapaksa’s tenure saw several high-profile Chinese investments in Sri Lanka. Many of those, including an airport and a seaport in Hambantota—the home base of Rajapaksa—have proven to be commercial non-starters. In Nigeria, just three days before exiting office, former president Goodluck Jonathan approved an out-of-court settlement—now being probed by US agencies—between Addax Petroleum (owned by Chinese oil giant Sinopec) and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corp., saving the former millions of dollars.
In 2012, the husband of former Philippine president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was arrested on charges of accepting bribes to push a deal between the Philippine government and the Chinese telecom company ZTE. Mohammad Nasheed, the leader-in-exile of Maldivian opposition, has accused President Abdulla Yameen of corruption in leasing out islands to foreign countries. India, too, was concerned about the Yameen government leasing out the Feydhoo Finolhu island to a Chinese company at a throwaway price without competitive bidding. Known for his proximity to China, Yameen again surprised New Delhi in November last year by passing a free trade agreement with China through the Maldivian parliament in an emergency session called at short notice with most of the opposition members unavailable to attend.
As China pushes its ambitious trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative, such sweetheart deals can be expected in greater numbers. India’s smaller neighbours are especially vulnerable, but New Delhi can do little as it cannot match Beijing’s largesse. India can indeed partner with other countries like Japan and the US to take up infrastructure projects in these countries. But even so, it is difficult to match Chinese state-controlled firms with excess capacity and a bounty of cash to throw at projects and leaders. It is not, in any case, a replacement for the citizens of the host countries realizing that Chinese money unaccompanied by domestic institutional reforms and local capacity development cannot make them rich. Conversely, it can exacerbate local political economy problems by encouraging venality and corruption.
As economist William Easterly has argued, foreign aid discourages the development of the right market institutions that would be required for higher investment flows unmediated by corrupt political practices. China’s support is not even in the form of aid, but through more distortionary high-interest loans. Often, the labour and the input materials in these projects are also sourced from China. Moreover, the investment flow is dictated by political rather than market choices. The result is a host country saddled with white elephants not generating enough capital to pay back the loans. Sri Lanka has already seen these fears come true.
Other countries too make strategic use of foreign aid. The US, most prominently, deploys aid (goo.gl/MSfeh9) to win votes in the UN. Israel does this (goo.gl/oTzyM2) as well. But the scale at which China is using its capital for securing political influence is unprecedented—and the consequences could be deeply felt across the globe.
Will Chinese loans help poor countries build infrastructure and prosper?
Is China bribing its way to superpower status?
The scale at which China is using its capital for securing political influence is unprecedented
In a throwback to the golden days of the Middle Kingdom when foreign rulers brought with them tributes for the Chinese emperor, French President Emmanuel Macron on his recent visit presented Chinese President Xi Jinping with an eight-year-old gelding. Macron hopes that a charm offensive directed at Xi can help his task of reinvigorating the French economy and industries. Airbus, for instance, is betting its future on large orders from China. The French president has, so far, only offered up a horse and has expressed his admiration for Chinese civilization. David Cameron, the former British prime minister—who was announced last month to be taking over a leadership role in a joint UK-China investment fund—went further.
Before Macron, it was Cameron who championed the rise of China, and closer UK-China and Europe-China ties. Among other deals, Cameron approved massive Chinese investments in a nuclear power project at Hinkley Point in Somerset. Controversial on both security and commercial grounds, the deal was deemed not to be in Britain’s interests by many critics. Theresa May, Cameron’s successor, even shelved the project temporarily after taking charge. So, is there a smoking gun to link the Hinkley Point deal with Cameron’s latest job? Not really. But it was reported (goo.gl/ufg2Zn) that the former British prime minister lobbied for this fund to be set up on behalf of Peter Gummer, an old associate of Cameron and donor of the Conservative Party—enough to raise eyebrows.
As the news of Cameron taking over a fund meant to project Chinese influence across Europe and Asia came out, many were quick to draw parallels with Gerhard Schröder, former German chancellor. After losing his office in 2005, Schröeder bagged a job with Gazprom, the Russian energy giant. During his tenure, Schröder had staunchly backed the contentious Nord Stream pipeline that was a joint project of Gazprom with two German companies.
These instances might be from developed European countries—but leaders of smaller, poorer countries are much more vulnerable to the ambitions of a country with deep pockets like China. After being thrown out of power, leaders in a number of countries have been investigated for accepting bribes from Chinese companies. The former president of Sri Lanka, Mahinda Rajapaksa, has been accused of accepting bribes from China Harbour Engineering Company, a subsidiary of state-owned China Communications Construction Company. Rajapaksa’s tenure saw several high-profile Chinese investments in Sri Lanka. Many of those, including an airport and a seaport in Hambantota—the home base of Rajapaksa—have proven to be commercial non-starters. In Nigeria, just three days before exiting office, former president Goodluck Jonathan approved an out-of-court settlement—now being probed by US agencies—between Addax Petroleum (owned by Chinese oil giant Sinopec) and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corp., saving the former millions of dollars.
In 2012, the husband of former Philippine president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was arrested on charges of accepting bribes to push a deal between the Philippine government and the Chinese telecom company ZTE. Mohammad Nasheed, the leader-in-exile of Maldivian opposition, has accused President Abdulla Yameen of corruption in leasing out islands to foreign countries. India, too, was concerned about the Yameen government leasing out the Feydhoo Finolhu island to a Chinese company at a throwaway price without competitive bidding. Known for his proximity to China, Yameen again surprised New Delhi in November last year by passing a free trade agreement with China through the Maldivian parliament in an emergency session called at short notice with most of the opposition members unavailable to attend.
As China pushes its ambitious trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative, such sweetheart deals can be expected in greater numbers. India’s smaller neighbours are especially vulnerable, but New Delhi can do little as it cannot match Beijing’s largesse. India can indeed partner with other countries like Japan and the US to take up infrastructure projects in these countries. But even so, it is difficult to match Chinese state-controlled firms with excess capacity and a bounty of cash to throw at projects and leaders. It is not, in any case, a replacement for the citizens of the host countries realizing that Chinese money unaccompanied by domestic institutional reforms and local capacity development cannot make them rich. Conversely, it can exacerbate local political economy problems by encouraging venality and corruption.
As economist William Easterly has argued, foreign aid discourages the development of the right market institutions that would be required for higher investment flows unmediated by corrupt political practices. China’s support is not even in the form of aid, but through more distortionary high-interest loans. Often, the labour and the input materials in these projects are also sourced from China. Moreover, the investment flow is dictated by political rather than market choices. The result is a host country saddled with white elephants not generating enough capital to pay back the loans. Sri Lanka has already seen these fears come true.
Other countries too make strategic use of foreign aid. The US, most prominently, deploys aid (goo.gl/MSfeh9) to win votes in the UN. Israel does this (goo.gl/oTzyM2) as well. But the scale at which China is using its capital for securing political influence is unprecedented—and the consequences could be deeply felt across the globe.
Will Chinese loans help poor countries build infrastructure and prosper?
Is China bribing its way to superpower status?
The scale at which China is using its capital for securing political influence is unprecedented
In a throwback to the golden days of the Middle Kingdom when foreign rulers brought with them tributes for the Chinese emperor, French President Emmanuel Macron on his recent visit presented Chinese President Xi Jinping with an eight-year-old gelding. Macron hopes that a charm offensive directed at Xi can help his task of reinvigorating the French economy and industries. Airbus, for instance, is betting its future on large orders from China. The French president has, so far, only offered up a horse and has expressed his admiration for Chinese civilization. David Cameron, the former British prime minister—who was announced last month to be taking over a leadership role in a joint UK-China investment fund—went further.
Before Macron, it was Cameron who championed the rise of China, and closer UK-China and Europe-China ties. Among other deals, Cameron approved massive Chinese investments in a nuclear power project at Hinkley Point in Somerset. Controversial on both security and commercial grounds, the deal was deemed not to be in Britain’s interests by many critics. Theresa May, Cameron’s successor, even shelved the project temporarily after taking charge. So, is there a smoking gun to link the Hinkley Point deal with Cameron’s latest job? Not really. But it was reported (goo.gl/ufg2Zn) that the former British prime minister lobbied for this fund to be set up on behalf of Peter Gummer, an old associate of Cameron and donor of the Conservative Party—enough to raise eyebrows.
As the news of Cameron taking over a fund meant to project Chinese influence across Europe and Asia came out, many were quick to draw parallels with Gerhard Schröder, former German chancellor. After losing his office in 2005, Schröeder bagged a job with Gazprom, the Russian energy giant. During his tenure, Schröder had staunchly backed the contentious Nord Stream pipeline that was a joint project of Gazprom with two German companies.
These instances might be from developed European countries—but leaders of smaller, poorer countries are much more vulnerable to the ambitions of a country with deep pockets like China. After being thrown out of power, leaders in a number of countries have been investigated for accepting bribes from Chinese companies. The former president of Sri Lanka, Mahinda Rajapaksa, has been accused of accepting bribes from China Harbour Engineering Company, a subsidiary of state-owned China Communications Construction Company. Rajapaksa’s tenure saw several high-profile Chinese investments in Sri Lanka. Many of those, including an airport and a seaport in Hambantota—the home base of Rajapaksa—have proven to be commercial non-starters. In Nigeria, just three days before exiting office, former president Goodluck Jonathan approved an out-of-court settlement—now being probed by US agencies—between Addax Petroleum (owned by Chinese oil giant Sinopec) and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corp., saving the former millions of dollars.
In 2012, the husband of former Philippine president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was arrested on charges of accepting bribes to push a deal between the Philippine government and the Chinese telecom company ZTE. Mohammad Nasheed, the leader-in-exile of Maldivian opposition, has accused President Abdulla Yameen of corruption in leasing out islands to foreign countries. India, too, was concerned about the Yameen government leasing out the Feydhoo Finolhu island to a Chinese company at a throwaway price without competitive bidding. Known for his proximity to China, Yameen again surprised New Delhi in November last year by passing a free trade agreement with China through the Maldivian parliament in an emergency session called at short notice with most of the opposition members unavailable to attend.
As China pushes its ambitious trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative, such sweetheart deals can be expected in greater numbers. India’s smaller neighbours are especially vulnerable, but New Delhi can do little as it cannot match Beijing’s largesse. India can indeed partner with other countries like Japan and the US to take up infrastructure projects in these countries. But even so, it is difficult to match Chinese state-controlled firms with excess capacity and a bounty of cash to throw at projects and leaders. It is not, in any case, a replacement for the citizens of the host countries realizing that Chinese money unaccompanied by domestic institutional reforms and local capacity development cannot make them rich. Conversely, it can exacerbate local political economy problems by encouraging venality and corruption.
As economist William Easterly has argued, foreign aid discourages the development of the right market institutions that would be required for higher investment flows unmediated by corrupt political practices. China’s support is not even in the form of aid, but through more distortionary high-interest loans. Often, the labour and the input materials in these projects are also sourced from China. Moreover, the investment flow is dictated by political rather than market choices. The result is a host country saddled with white elephants not generating enough capital to pay back the loans. Sri Lanka has already seen these fears come true.
Other countries too make strategic use of foreign aid. The US, most prominently, deploys aid (goo.gl/MSfeh9) to win votes in the UN. Israel does this (goo.gl/oTzyM2) as well. But the scale at which China is using its capital for securing political influence is unprecedented—and the consequences could be deeply felt across the globe.
Will Chinese loans help poor countries build infrastructure and prosper?
Is China bribing its way to superpower status?
The scale at which China is using its capital for securing political influence is unprecedented
In a throwback to the golden days of the Middle Kingdom when foreign rulers brought with them tributes for the Chinese emperor, French President Emmanuel Macron on his recent visit presented Chinese President Xi Jinping with an eight-year-old gelding. Macron hopes that a charm offensive directed at Xi can help his task of reinvigorating the French economy and industries. Airbus, for instance, is betting its future on large orders from China. The French president has, so far, only offered up a horse and has expressed his admiration for Chinese civilization. David Cameron, the former British prime minister—who was announced last month to be taking over a leadership role in a joint UK-China investment fund—went further.
Before Macron, it was Cameron who championed the rise of China, and closer UK-China and Europe-China ties. Among other deals, Cameron approved massive Chinese investments in a nuclear power project at Hinkley Point in Somerset. Controversial on both security and commercial grounds, the deal was deemed not to be in Britain’s interests by many critics. Theresa May, Cameron’s successor, even shelved the project temporarily after taking charge. So, is there a smoking gun to link the Hinkley Point deal with Cameron’s latest job? Not really. But it was reported (goo.gl/ufg2Zn) that the former British prime minister lobbied for this fund to be set up on behalf of Peter Gummer, an old associate of Cameron and donor of the Conservative Party—enough to raise eyebrows.
As the news of Cameron taking over a fund meant to project Chinese influence across Europe and Asia came out, many were quick to draw parallels with Gerhard Schröder, former German chancellor. After losing his office in 2005, Schröeder bagged a job with Gazprom, the Russian energy giant. During his tenure, Schröder had staunchly backed the contentious Nord Stream pipeline that was a joint project of Gazprom with two German companies.
These instances might be from developed European countries—but leaders of smaller, poorer countries are much more vulnerable to the ambitions of a country with deep pockets like China. After being thrown out of power, leaders in a number of countries have been investigated for accepting bribes from Chinese companies. The former president of Sri Lanka, Mahinda Rajapaksa, has been accused of accepting bribes from China Harbour Engineering Company, a subsidiary of state-owned China Communications Construction Company. Rajapaksa’s tenure saw several high-profile Chinese investments in Sri Lanka. Many of those, including an airport and a seaport in Hambantota—the home base of Rajapaksa—have proven to be commercial non-starters. In Nigeria, just three days before exiting office, former president Goodluck Jonathan approved an out-of-court settlement—now being probed by US agencies—between Addax Petroleum (owned by Chinese oil giant Sinopec) and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corp., saving the former millions of dollars.
In 2012, the husband of former Philippine president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was arrested on charges of accepting bribes to push a deal between the Philippine government and the Chinese telecom company ZTE. Mohammad Nasheed, the leader-in-exile of Maldivian opposition, has accused President Abdulla Yameen of corruption in leasing out islands to foreign countries. India, too, was concerned about the Yameen government leasing out the Feydhoo Finolhu island to a Chinese company at a throwaway price without competitive bidding. Known for his proximity to China, Yameen again surprised New Delhi in November last year by passing a free trade agreement with China through the Maldivian parliament in an emergency session called at short notice with most of the opposition members unavailable to attend.
As China pushes its ambitious trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative, such sweetheart deals can be expected in greater numbers. India’s smaller neighbours are especially vulnerable, but New Delhi can do little as it cannot match Beijing’s largesse. India can indeed partner with other countries like Japan and the US to take up infrastructure projects in these countries. But even so, it is difficult to match Chinese state-controlled firms with excess capacity and a bounty of cash to throw at projects and leaders. It is not, in any case, a replacement for the citizens of the host countries realizing that Chinese money unaccompanied by domestic institutional reforms and local capacity development cannot make them rich. Conversely, it can exacerbate local political economy problems by encouraging venality and corruption.
As economist William Easterly has argued, foreign aid discourages the development of the right market institutions that would be required for higher investment flows unmediated by corrupt political practices. China’s support is not even in the form of aid, but through more distortionary high-interest loans. Often, the labour and the input materials in these projects are also sourced from China. Moreover, the investment flow is dictated by political rather than market choices. The result is a host country saddled with white elephants not generating enough capital to pay back the loans. Sri Lanka has already seen these fears come true.
Other countries too make strategic use of foreign aid. The US, most prominently, deploys aid (goo.gl/MSfeh9) to win votes in the UN. Israel does this (goo.gl/oTzyM2) as well. But the scale at which China is using its capital for securing political influence is unprecedented—and the consequences could be deeply felt across the globe.
Will Chinese loans help poor countries build infrastructure and prosper?

ISRO's 42nd PSLV successfully puts 31 satellites in orbit

ISRO's 42nd PSLV successfully puts 31 satellites in orbit
Its primary payload was the fourth satellite in the advanced remote sensing Cartosat-2 series
The 42nd Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), PSLV-C40, was launched successfully on Friday by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) from the First Launch Pad of the Satish Dhawan Space Centre (SDSC) in Sriharikota and it placed 31 satellites across two orbits.
The PSLV, launched at 9.29 a.m., had as its primary payload the country's fourth satellite in the remote sensing Cartosat-2 series, weighing 710 kg. The 30 other co-passenger smaller satellites, together weigh 613 kg. Of them, 28 are from other countries.
The Cartosat-2, whose imagery will be used to develop various land and geographical information system applications, was placed in a circular polar sun synchronous orbit 505 km from the Earth. The satellite's design life is five years.
Two technology demonstrators
It is the two other Indian satellites in the payload that have generated much excitement. Both are called technology demonstrators, indicating significant strides in miniaturisation.
Of the two, one is a microsatellite of the 100 kg class. "This is a technology demonstrator and the forerunner for future satellites of this series," the ISRO said.
The other one, a nanosatellite, named Indian Nano Satellite (INS) - 1C, is the third in its series; its predecessors were part of the PSLV-C37 launch of February 2017. The INS-1C, whose mission life is six months, carries the Miniature Multispectral Technology Demonstration payload from the Space Applications Centre. "With a capability to carry up to 3 kg of payload and a total satellite mass of 11 kg, it offers immense opportunities for future use," the ISRO said.
Of the 28 foreign satellites, launched as part of deals made by ISRO's commercial arm Antrix Corporation Limited, three were microsatellites and 25 nanosatellites. There were 19 satellites from the United States and five from South Korea. The United Kingdom, France, Canada and Finland had a satellite each.
The CMD of Antrix had told The Hindu that the PSLV carried three important proof-of-concept microsats.
The ISRO had seen its launch of August 31, 2017 being recorded as a failure. The heat shield of PSLV-C39 did not separate, resulting in satellite separation occurring within the shield. It was only the second total failure of the PSLV in nearly 24 years: the PSLV-D1, in its maiden flight, failed on September 20, 1993.
..........................................ISRO’s Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle, in its forty second flight, successfully launched the 710 kg Cartosat-2 Series Remote Sensing Satellite along with 30 co-passenger satellites today from Satish Dhawan Space Centre SHAR, Sriharikota. This flight is designated as PSLV-C40.
The lift-off of PSLV-C40 occurred at 0929 hrs (9:29 am) IST from the First Launch Pad. After a flight lasting 16 minutes 37 seconds, the satellites achieved the polar Sun Synchronous Orbit of 503 km inclined at an angle of 97.55 degree to the equator. In the succeeding seven minutes, Cartosat-2 series satellite, INS-1C and 28 customer satellites successfully separated from the PSLV in a predetermined sequence. The fourth stage of PSLV-C40 fired twice for short durations to achieve a polar orbit of 365 km height in which India’s Microsat successfully separated.
After separation, the two solar arrays of Cartosat-2 series satellite deployed automatically and ISRO's Telemetry, Tracking and Command Network (ISTRAC) at Bengaluru took over the control of the satellite. In the coming days, the satellite will be brought to its final operational configuration following which it will begin to provide remote sensing data using its panchromatic (black and white) and multispectral (colour) cameras.
The 11 kg INS-1C and the 100 kg class Microsat, the two Indian co-passenger satellites of Cartosat-2, are also being monitored and controlled from ISTRAC, Bengaluru. The 28 international customer satellites belong to Canada, Finland, France, Republic of Korea, UK and the USA.
So far, PSLV has successfully launched 51 Indian satellites and 237 customer satellites from abroad.

Isro’s 100th satellite: Countdown begins for launch of ‘Cartosat-2’ series
Isro will launch the weather observation ‘Cartosat-2’ series satellite and 30 other satellites at 9.28 am on Friday using its trusted ‘PSLV-C40’ rocket
The 28-hour countdown for the launch of Isro’s 100th satellite along with 30 others in a single mission, from the space port of Sriharikota, about 110km from Chennai, began on Thursday.
On its 42nd mission, the Indian Space Research Organisation’s (Isro) trusted workhorse ‘PSLV-C40’ will carry the weather observation ‘Cartosat-2’ series satellite and 30 co-passengers (together weighing about 613 kg) at lift-off at 9.28am tomorrow.
As the Mission Readiness Review committee and Launch Authorisation Board cleared the countdown, the space body today said, “The 28-hour countdown activity of PSLV-C40/Cartosat2 Series Satellite Mission has started at 05.29 hours IST today”.
At present, the scientists are involved in propellant filling operation to carry out various stages of the flight, it said. The 44.4 metre tall rocket is all set to lift off from the first launch pad of the Satish Dhawan Space Centre at Sriharikota.
The co-passenger satellites comprise one micro and nano satellite each from India as well as three micro and 25 nanosatellites from six countries—Canada, Finland, France, Korea, the United Kingdom and United States of America.
The total weight of all the 31 satellites carried on-board PSLV-C40 is about 1,323kg. The 28 international customer satellites are being launched as part of the commercial arrangements between ISRO and its commercial arm ‘Antrix Corporation Ltd’.
Of the total number of satellites carried by PSLV-C40, 30 satellites will be launched into a 505 kms polar Sun Synchronous Orbit (SSO). Scientists would bring down the height by twice restarting the fourth stage of the PSLV-C40 for launch of Microsat satellite, which will be placed in a 359km polar SSO, ISRO said. The entire launch of satellites is expected to happen over a period of 2 hours and 21 seconds, it said.
According to Isro, the Cartosat-2 series satellite launch is a follow-on mission with the primary objective of providing high resolution scene specific spot imageries. It carries panchromatic and multi-spectral cameras operating in Time Delay Integration mode and is capable of delivering high resolution data. It will be the third satellite in the Cartosat-2 series.
Isro had successfully launched Cartosat-2 Series satellite on 22 June 2016. It is similar to the earlier Cartosat-2, 2A and 2B. The images sent by Cartosat-2 series satellite will be useful for cartographic applications, urban and rural applications, coastal land use and regulation, road network monitoring, water distribution, creation of land use maps and change detection to bring out geographical Land Information Systems and Geographical Information System applications.
ISRO Satellite Centre director M. Annadurai had recently said the launch of 28 satellites from abroad and three Indian satellites during the mission would mark the roll out of the 100th satellite by the space agency.
Tomorrow’s launch also marks the first launch for Isro in 2018 following the unsuccessful mission of navigation satellite IRNSS-1H last year.
On 31 August 2017 India’s mission to launch its backup navigation satellite IRNSS-1H on board PSLV-C39 failed after the heat shield did not separate in the final leg of the launch sequence and as a result, the satellite IRNSS-1H got stuck in the fourth stage of the rocket.

The map of rural deprivation

The map of rural deprivation
For millions hit by agricultural distress, the escape to construction jobs is grinding to a halt
With the Union Budget to be presented on February 1, it is hoped that the Finance Minister will make a significantly higher allocation for investment in infrastructure. It is vital for addressing rural distress. The Socio Economic and Caste Census (SECC) informed us that ‘landlessness and dependence on manual casual labour for a livelihood are key deprivations facing rural families’, which make them far more vulnerable to impoverishment.
Based on indicators
The rural census, or SECC, mapped deprivation using seven indicators: ‘households with a kuchha house; without an adult member in working age; headed by a woman and without an adult male in working age; with a disabled member and without able-bodied adult; of Scheduled Castes/Scheduled Tribes (SC/ST); without literate adults over 25 years; and the landless engaged in manual labour. The more the number of parameters on which a household is deprived, the worse its extent of poverty. Nearly 30% have two deprivations, 13% have three. Only 0.01% suffer from all seven handicaps’.
While 48.5% of all rural households suffer from at least one deprivation indicator, “landless households engaged in manual labour” are more vulnerable.
Nearly 54 million households are in the landless-labourer category; assuming that each such household has five members, that makes 250 million of the nearly 850-900 million rural population. This number is almost certainly an underestimate, since 84% of all those who even hold agricultural land are small and marginal farmers.
The intersection of any of the six other handicaps with “landless labour” makes it more acute. The SECC also said that ‘59% of households with kuchha houses are landless labourers; similarly, 55% of those with no literate adult above 25 years and 54% each of SC/ST households and female-headed households without adult male members are also landless households. At the same time, 47% households without an adult member of working age are landless labourers as are 45% of those with disabled members and no able-bodied adult members’.
Farmer distress
Along with landless families, small and marginal farmers are getting pauperised and more engaged in manual labour. The overall farm size, which has been dropping since the early 1970s, and down from the 2.25 hectares (ha) average to a 1.25 ha average in 2010, will continue to become even smaller. For these farmers, agricultural incomes are also likely to fall, hastening the exodus from agriculture. In fact, farmer distress has been growing, with the past year witnessing farmers protesting on the streets in several States.
National Sample Survey (NSS) data show that there are two demographic groups which did reasonably well in labour market outcomes both in terms of job growth as well as wage growth between 2004-5 and 2011-12; these were the young who were getting educated at hitherto unheard of rates, and the older, poorly educated cohort of landless labour in agriculture, who saw construction work rise sharply.
However, the question is: does the economy have the capacity to create non-agricultural jobs for both groups whose numbers will grow over the next decade until 2030? The young have been entering and remaining in education in unprecedented numbers for the last two decades. Hence, as a result, while the young joining the labour force has been just 2 million per annum between 2004-5 and 2015-16, from this point onwards, the numbers of the young will indeed grow significantly.
However, the numbers of landless and small and marginal farmers looking for non-agricultural work is an immediate and top priority. Between 2004-5 and 2011-12, the number of cultivators in rural areas fell from 160 million to 141 million and the number of landless labour from 85 million to 69 million, both because they found non-agricultural work.
Construction employment
The real net domestic product of the construction sector had only increased at the annual rate of 3.94% between 1970-71 and 1993-94. From 1993-94 to 2004-05 and 2004-05 to 2011-12, the growth rate in the construction sector output accelerated to 7.92% and 11.5%, respectively. Consequently, the share of the construction sector in rural output increased from 3.5% in 1970-71 to 10.5% in 2011-12. Employment in the construction sector increased 13 times during the past four decades, which led to its share in rural employment rising from 1.4% in 1972-73 to 10.7% in 2011-12. This sector absorbed 74% of the new jobs created in non-farm sectors in rural areas between 2004-05 and 2011-12. These trends indicate that rural areas witnessed a construction boom after 2004-05. Further, growth in employment in the construction sector was higher than output growth during both periods under consideration. One reason for the much higher growth in the number of rural workers in construction over the manufacturing or services sectors is that there are fewer skill and educational requirements in construction.
Construction employment grew at a remarkable rate from 1999-2000 onwards. While it employed only 17 million in that year, the number jumped to 26 million by 2004-5. However, what happened after that was totally unprecedented. It grew to 51 million by 2011-12, which is a doubling in seven years or a tripling in 12 years from the turn of the millennium.
This was possible because of the sustained growth in investment in infrastructure, especially over the 11th Five Year Plan period (2007-12) of $100 billion per annum, two-thirds of which was public, and the remainder private. In addition, there was a real boom in real estate, residential and commercial, throughout the country. However, private investment is now much lower than earlier.
Construction is the main activity absorbing poorly educated rural labour in the rural and urban areas. These workers are characterised, as noted above, by very low levels of education. It is estimated from NSS and Labour Bureau data that the absolute number of those in construction who were illiterate was 11 million in 2004-5, but which rose to 19 million in 2011-12.
Construction jobs were growing so fast between 2004-5 and 2011-2 that the share of construction in total jobs for 15 to 29 year olds in the workforce doubled from 7.5% to 14%. Since then construction job growth has slowed, such that the share of construction in total youth employment fell to 13.3%. Construction jobs are growing more slowly since 2011-12, as public investment has fallen. And with the rising non-performing assets of banks, private investment has fallen as well. The result: fewer workers have been leaving agriculture since 2011-12. From the 5 million leaving agriculture per annum between 2004-5 to 2011-12, the number is down to just over 1 million per annum between 2011-12 to 2015-16.
This is hurting landless labour and small and marginal farmers the most, since their households had benefited the most from the tightening of the labour market that had ensued in rural and urban areas because of rising construction jobs. Rural demand in particular has risen, raising consumer demand for simple manufactured goods, especially in the unorganised manufacturing sector, raising employment in those sectors especially in rural areas.
The Union government has sustained rural development expenditure for the last two years, especially for rural roads, under the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana and rural housing under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (Urban). The Surface Transport Ministry has also attempted to sustain public investment in infrastructure to generate construction jobs for growing surplus rural labour.
The Budget for 2018-19 should sustain this public investment effort. The announcement that the government plans to borrow an additional ₹50,000 crore in this financial year, is welcome. Hopefully, the intention here is to raise public investment, especially for infrastructure investment.

भारत में घटकर 2.2 हुई बच्चे पैदा होने की दर, मुस्लिम सबसे आगे

भारत में घटकर 2.2 हुई बच्चे पैदा होने की दर, मुस्लिम सबसे आगे
साल 2015-16 में हुए नैशनल फैमिली हेल्थ सर्वे के मुताबिक हिंदुओं में बच्चे पैदा करने की दर 2.1 पर आ गई है, जबकि 2004-05 में यह आंकड़ा 2.8 का था। पिछले आंकड़े के लिहाज से देखें तो यह बड़ी गिरावट है।
मुस्लिमों में बच्चे पैदा करने की दर अब भी देश के अन्य समुदायों के मुकाबले अधिक है। मुस्लिम समाज में प्रति परिवार यह आंकड़ा 2.6 है। हालांकि 2004-05 के 3.4 के आंकड़े की तुलना में यह बड़ी गिरावट कही जा सकती है। 2015-16 में नैशनल फैमिली हेल्थ सर्वे का धार्मिक आधार पर डेटा निकालने पर यह खुलासा हुआ है। देश में सबसे कम फर्टिलिटी रेट 1.2 जैन समाज का है। देश में शिक्षा के स्तर में भी जैन समाज के लोग सबसे आगे हैं। इसके बाद सिखों में बच्चे पैदा करने की दर 1.6, बौद्धों और नव-बौद्धों में 1.7 और ईसाइयों में 2 है। भारत के कुल फर्टिलिटी रेट की बात करें तो यह 2.2 है।
........'गरीबी जितनी अधिक बच्चे भी उतने ज्यादा'
यदि आर्थिक आधार पर विश्लेषण किया जाए तो न्यूनतम आय वर्ग वाले परिवारों में बच्चों की दर सबसे अधिक 3.2 है, वहीं सबसे उच्च आय वर्ग लोगों में यह आंकड़ा सबसे कम 1.5 है।
...........जनजातीय समाज में अधिक बच्चे
सामाजिक आधार पर आंकड़ों का विश्लेषण करें तो सबसे पिछड़े जनजातीय समाज में फर्टिलिटी रेट 2.5 है, जबकि अनुसूचित जाति में यह 2.3 है और पिछड़े वर्ग का आंकड़ा 2.2 है। सवर्ण जातियों में यह आंकड़ा सबसे कम 1.9 है। यही नहीं युवा महिलाओं से पैदा होने वाले बच्चों की संख्या अधिक उम्र की महिलाओं की तुलना में खासी कम है। इससे पता चलता है कि बीते दो दशकों में खासा बदलाव आया है

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