Isro scripts history with GSLV Mark III rocket, GSAT-19 satellite launch

Isro’s latest satellite launch—the GSAT-19 onboard the GSLV MK III rocket—is its heaviest payload yet, demonstrating its capability to hurl next-gen satellites into orbit and carry astronauts to outer space

The Indian Space Research Organization (Isro) launched its heaviest rocket— the GSLV MK III—to put the GSAT-19 communications satellite into orbit, in a demonstration of its capability to hurl next-generation satellites into orbit and carry astronauts into outer space.

At 5.28pm, the 43m, 640-tonne geosynchronous satellite launch vehicle (GSLV) Mark III (D1), lifted off from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre in Sriharikota in Andhra Pradesh. The rocket’s mission was to place the 3,136kg GSAT-19 communications satellite into a geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO) at 36,000km above earth.

The successful first developmental flight opens up commercial opportunities for Isro to launch heavy satellites for foreign customers besides reducing its own dependence on foreign space organizations such as Arianespace SA.

It demonstrates Isro’s ability to launch satellites weighing as much as 3.5-4 tonnes, up from 2.2-2.3 tons in the past.

“The GSLV-MKIII D1/GSAT-19 mission takes India closer to the next generation launch vehicle and satellite capability. The nation is proud,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrote in a Twitter message.

The launch is the latest in a string of successes for Isro, which in February launched a record-breaking 104 nano satellites into orbit, all onboard a single rocket. On 5 May, Isro launched the 2,230kg GSAT-9 to boost connectivity among South Asian countries.

In November 2013, India launched a space probe that has been orbiting Mars since September. Last year, in nine missions, it placed 32 satellites in orbit.

The Mars feat burnished India’s reputation as a reliable low-cost option for space exploration, with its $73 million price tag drastically undercutting US space agency NASA’s $671-million Maven Mars mission.

The GSLV-Mark III rocket is India’s heaviest rocket, weighing as much as five fully loaded Boeing jumbo jets or 200 fully grown elephants.

Indian space scientists worked “relentlessly for decades and for this project since 2002 to successfully put the satellite into orbit”, Isro chairman A.S. Kiran Kumar said. “This is a historic day for Isro.”

The flight is expected to boost India’s aspirations of carrying out manned space missions. Isro is not considering this at present. “It is one step at a time,” Kumar said in a recent interview with Mint.

The successful mission means Isro now has a third stream of operational launch vehicles after the polar satellite launch vehicle and the GSLV-Mark II.

Approved in 2002, the three-stage vehicle with two solid motor strap-ons can also carry payloads weighing up to 10,000kg into the lower earth orbit at around 800km above earth.

Although Isro did not disclose the cost of the project, Kumar said in the interview that it would result in about 25% savings on the cost of satellite launches.

“We still depend on foreign procurement for heavy satellites. For example, the GSAT-17 is launching end of June from Ariane. In the very near future, this will not be required.” he said.

After its separation from the GSLV MK III in GTO, GSAT-19 will reach its geostationary orbital home using an electronic propulsion system.

The satellite will use multiple spot beams covering all of India. Isro claims this will increase internet speeds and connectivity, depending on the ground infrastructure.

The first suborbital test flight of GSLV Mark III was successfully conducted on 18 December 2014.

Hottest’ planet in universe discoveredKELT-9

Hottest’ planet in universe discovered
Scientists have discovered the hottest known planet located 650 light years from Earth, which is warmer than most stars in the universe and sports a giant, glowing gas tail like a comet.

The Jupiter-like planet orbits a massive star KELT-9 every day and a half, researchers said.

With a day-side temperature peaking at 4,326 degree Celsius, the newly discovered exoplanet, designated KELT-9b, is hotter than most stars and only 926 degree Celsius cooler than our Sun.

Glowing gas tail

The ultraviolet radiation from the star it orbits is so brutal that the planet may be evaporating away under the intense glare, producing a glowing gas tail.

The gas giant 2.8 times more massive than Jupiter but only half as dense, because the extreme radiation from its host star has caused its atmosphere to puff up like a balloon.

Tidally locked

Since it is tidally locked to its star — as the moon is to Earth — the day side of the planet is perpetually bombarded by stellar radiation, and, as a result, the planet is so hot that molecules such as water, carbon dioxide and methane can not form there.

“It’s a planet by any of the typical definitions based on mass, but its atmosphere is almost certainly unlike any other planet we’ve ever seen just because of the temperature of its day side,” said Scott Gaudi, professor at the Ohio State University in the U.S. and lead author of the study published in the journal Nature.

Scientists have discovered the hottest known planet located 650 light years from Earth, which is warmer than most stars in the universe and sports a giant, glowing gas tail like a comet.

The Jupiter-like planet orbits a massive star KELT-9 every day and a half, researchers said.

With a day-side temperature peaking at 4,326 degree Celsius, the newly discovered exoplanet, designated KELT-9b, is hotter than most stars and only 926 degree Celsius cooler than our Sun.

Glowing gas tail

The ultraviolet radiation from the star it orbits is so brutal that the planet may be evaporating away under the intense glare, producing a glowing gas tail.

The gas giant 2.8 times more massive than Jupiter but only half as dense, because the extreme radiation from its host star has caused its atmosphere to puff up like a balloon.

Tidally locked

Since it is tidally locked to its star — as the moon is to Earth — the day side of the planet is perpetually bombarded by stellar radiation, and, as a result, the planet is so hot that molecules such as water, carbon dioxide and methane can not form there.

“It’s a planet by any of the typical definitions based on mass, but its atmosphere is almost certainly unlike any other planet we’ve ever seen just because of the temperature of its day side,” said Scott Gaudi, professor at the Ohio State University in the U.S. and lead author of the study published in the journal Nature.

malnutrition in child

With one of the highest rates of child malnutrition in the world, India has won notoriety as one of the nutritional basket cases of the world over the past few years. Although India has witnessed significant progress in its battle against child malnutrition over the past decade, the progress has been quite uneven, and child malnutrition rates still remain high in many parts of the country, data from the latest round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) shows.

The survey of over 6 lakh households conducted in 2015-16 shows that over the past decade, the proportion of underweight children fell nearly 7 percentage points to 36%, while the proportion of stunted children (those with low height-for-age, a measure of chronic undernourishment) declined nearly 10 percentage points to 38%. Despite the progress, these rates are still higher than those of many poorer countries in sub-Saharan Africa. And in some of the worst affected districts such as Purulia in West Bengal and Nandurbar in Maharashtra, every second child is undernourished.

Such high level of child malnutrition imposes a huge economic cost. Malnutrition accounted for losses worth at least 8% of global gross domestic product (GDP) in the 20th century because of “direct productivity losses, losses via poorer cognition, and losses via reduced schooling”, according to medical journal The Lancet, which published a special issue on the topic in 2013. The losses are higher for high-burden countries such as India.

As in the case of adult undernutrition rates, districts with the highest levels of undernutrition seem to be clustered largely in the central parts of the country. The bottom quartile of districts ranked according to child malnutrition rates includes not just districts from the most deprived tribal belts of central and eastern India but also some of the more urbanized districts of the country such as Udaipur in Rajasthan, Aurangabad in Maharashtra, Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh, Patna in Bihar, and Ranchi in Jharkhand. However, overall urban child malnutrition rates are lower than that of rural India.

Districts with relatively low levels of child undernutrition are clustered largely in the extreme north, the extreme south, and in the north-eastern parts of the country, as the district maps show. Some of the best-performing districts in the country with the lowest proportions of underweight children such as Mokokchung in Nagaland and Aizawl in Mizoram lie in North-east India.

Apart from poverty, there seems to be three key differences between districts with high and low levels of child malnutrition: the status of women, the kind of diets fed to children, and access to toilets.

One of the primary reasons for children being undernourished in the country is that often their mothers are undernourished. One in five women are underweight in India. Women who are themselves undernourished or have a pregnancy at an early age, are at a greater risk of delivering low birth-weight babies, who are nutritionally disadvantaged right at birth. Also, women without education or without much voice in their families often fail to ensure adequate diets for their children even when there is adequate food in the household. Districts with a high proportion of women who are illiterate and who have married early tend to have high ratios of undernourished children, the latest data shows. Districts where the proportion of children receiving an age-appropriate diet is low also tend to have high ratios of undernourished children.

The link between sanitation and undernutrition is even stronger. Districts with low levels of access to toilets have much higher rates of child undernourishment compared to districts with relatively high levels of access to toilets. In a densely populated country such as ours, the lack of sanitation contributes to the spread of infectious diseases. Children fall prey more easily to such diseases, and tend to lose their ability to absorb nutrients, leading to undernutrition.

Among states, Tripura and Himachal Pradesh seem to have made impressive strides in improving the rates of both stunting and underweight among children since 2005-06, when the previous NFHS round took place. Tripura has moved up three rungs between 2005-06 and 2015-16 to occupy the third position—behind Kerala and Goa—among states with the lowest levels of stunting. Himachal Pradesh has moved up five rungs over the same period to occupy the fifth position among states ranked according to levels of stunting. States such as Chhattisgarh and Punjab have seen significant improvements in rates of stunting over the past decade but their progress in reducing the proportion of underweight children has been less impressive. Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have both seen very slow progress in underweight and stunting rates over the past decade, and have slipped several notches in the rankings of states.

Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh have made some progress in the battle against child malnutrition but they continue to be among the worst states in terms of rates of underweight and stunting. They also continue to account for most of India’s undernourished children, as they did a decade ago

India’s double burden of malnutrition

Among large cities, Kolkata and Hyderabad have the greatest proportion of obese people in India

Malnutrition in India has always been synonymous with under-nutrition. Not anymore. Data from the latest round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) shows that obesity among adults is nearly as big a problem in the country as under-nutrition. Even as under-nutrition continues to remain extraordinarily high in the poorer parts of the country, obesity has reached endemic levels in some of the richer parts of the country, the survey of over 6 lakh households conducted in 2015-16 shows.

When the previous round of NFHS was conducted in 2005-06, the proportion of underweight men and women in the country was found to be nearly three times the proportion of overweight men and women, respectively. The latest survey shows that the proportion of overweight women in India at 20.7% is only 2 percentage points lower than the proportion of underweight women. The trend among men is similar, with nearly one in five men overweight today.

While the proportion of underweight adults has fallen over the past decade, the proportion of overweight adults has shot up sharply. Individuals who have a body mass index, or BMI, of 25 or more are considered overweight while those with a BMI less than 18.5 are considered underweight. Women seem to be affected more by both forms of malnutrition compared to men. More women than men are obese, and more women than men are underweight, the data shows.

According to some scholars, the twin problem of high malnutrition and growing obesity may have a common cause: a high proportion of low birth weight babies in India. According to one hypothesis (the so-called thrifty genotype hypothesis), under-nutrition in the pre-natal stage programmes the foetal tissues to utilize food efficiently, making it difficult for low birth weight babies to deal with an abundance of food in later life. The double malnutrition trap can be particularly dangerous for Asian economies such as India, where urban populations are rising, and where people increasingly face a sedentary lifestyle.

A look at district-level data, however, shows a clear divide between districts which have high concentration of underweight men and women and those which have high concentration of obese or overweight men and women. At one end of the spectrum are districts such as Purulia in West Bengal and Malkangiri in Odisha, where nearly one in two women are underweight. These districts are among the poorest in the country, and have been hotbeds of leftwing extremism for many years. At the other end of the spectrum are cities such as Kolkata and Hyderabad, where four out of every 10 women are overweight. Delhi and Mumbai also figure in the top quartile of districts with high levels of obesity but the proportion of obese people in these cities are lower compared to Kolkata and Hyderabad.

Kolkata is somewhat of an outlier in West Bengal, which has a relatively low proportion of overweight women. Hyderabad though reflects a state-level trend. Along with other southern states such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh has among the highest levels of obesity in the country.

A look at the district map suggests that most of the high-obesity districts are clustered largely around the two ends of the country: the extreme north and the extreme south. The undernourished districts are largely located in central India. There seems to be a strong correlation between affluence, obesity and lifestyle diseases. Districts with a higher proportion of rich households (those with TV, computer, phone, and motorised two-wheeler/four-wheeler as per census 2011 data) tend to have a higher proportion of obese people and lower proportion of underweight people.

The link between malnutrition and sanitation is even stronger. Districts with low levels of toilet access have high levels of undernutrition and low levels of obesity. The converse is true for districts with high levels of access to toilets.

The stark nutritional divide across the country in many ways mirrors the divide in growth and development across the country.

The puzzle of India’s sovereign ratings

The argument that high debt-to-GDP ratio is the reason for not upgrading India, is fundamentally flawed

India has been languishing at the bottom of the investment grade ladder in the ratings universe. In fact, to put it on record, India has had a net rating upgrade only once in the last 25 years. One of the common arguments made by rating agencies for not upgrading India’s rating is its high debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio. At 69.5% of GDP, the agencies argue that this is on the higher side and effectively acts as an enabling factor for crowding out private investment. This argument that high debt to GDP ratio is the reason for not upgrading India is, however, fundamentally flawed, for two reasons.

Click here for enlarge

First, there are a number of countries which are rated above India but have a significantly higher gross general government debt. In fact, most of these countries have debt positions which have been worsening over time but this has not affected their ratings much. India, on the other hand, has been consistently on the path of reducing its debt to GDP ratio to its present level from a peak of 84% in 2003.

One may think that it may be because of other macro fundamentals of these developed countries. If we look at major economic indicators of India in comparison to developed countries, India fares reasonably well in most of these. India is the fastest growing economy in the world, with a low unemployment rate and improving inflation and current account trajectories.

Next we look at how India is performing with respect to the group of countries that are rated one or two notches higher—almost all of them are developing countries. Here again we see India is performing much better in terms of macro performance, albeit with higher gross general government debt, but much lower external debt.

Thus, it seems the only indicator or figure that matters to rating agencies for the sovereign ratings of developing countries is the domestic debt to GDP ratio. The performance on other indicators does not get its due importance.

The other reason why we think the rating agencies’ rhetoric is fundamentally flawed is that it is the composition of the government debt to GDP per se that matters for any discussion on debt solvency. For India, public debt is mostly internal. As a conscious strategy, issuance of external debt (denominated in foreign currency) is kept very low in India. Overseas investors account for only 4% of the total government bonds and the majority of the investment comes from scheduled commercial banks, insurance companies, Reserve Bank of India and provident funds (accounting for around 85%).

It is ironic that Japan, which has a composition of government debt profile almost similar to that of India (bank and insurance companies account for 50% of the government debt), is rated at A+ with a debt/GDP ratio of 239%.

Interestingly, if we plot the debt/GDP and rating action (proxied by a numeric scale) for countries like Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain during the worst years of the financial crisis (2008-2011), we find there is little causation between the rating actions and movements in domestic debt/GDP. In fact, the regression coefficient (dependent variable is the rating action and independent variable is debt/GDP) is weak and not statistically significant. This result shows that even in periods when the European debt crisis was at its worst phase, there was little evidence to support rating actions acting as a leading indicator of deterioration in economic fundamentals.

There is another aspect to this debt to GDP ratio. Based on stock prices on the Mumbai stock exchange, as on 30 April 2017, the market capitalization of public sector undertakings (which includes Centre and state-level public enterprises, public sector banks as well as other companies where Centre and/or states and/or government companies and financial institutions have the single largest shareholding) stood at Rs13.7 trillion. These assets are equivalent to around 12% of the overall gross government debt. This also provides an additional comfort in debt management, and we wonder whether they are taken into account while examining India’s debt solvency.

Our primary concern is, however, different. Despite robust macro fundamentals, India may not witness a rating upgrade soon. This is because with the fiscal responsibility and budget management (FRBM) committee emphasizing attaining a 60% debt to GDP ratio with a ceiling of 40% for the Centre and 20% for the states, by 2023, the rating agencies will get a reason to maintain the status quo, despite the other visible advances which India has made.

The interesting point is that even in the FRBM committee report, there have been conflicting opinions about the 60% target of debt to GDP ratio. The methodology for arrival of the 60% number has been questioned. Furthermore, the fiscal deficit number of 2.5% to be achieved in the medium term also seems to have been arbitrarily arrived at and is based on unrealistic assumptions. In fact, the dissent note by chief economic adviser (CEA) Arvind Subramanian clearly states that India is not in any dire situation that it should adopt such a drastic reduction in debt and fiscal numbers. Moreover, the country was able to do significantly well when the debt to GDP ratio was as high as 84% in 2003 without failing to meet any of its debt servicing obligation. We also second the opinion of the CEA about focusing on primary deficit, rather than targeting multiple indicators (namely debt to GDP ratio, fiscal deficit and revenue deficit) to maintain the sustainability of our fiscal position (FRBM Review Committee Report Volume I, Annex-V).

The world has a $400 trillion problem

Governments in most countries will need to work on increasing retirement savings in order to avoid the looming pension crisis

Union finance minister Arun Jaitley, in his 2015 budget speech, acknowledged that most people in India do not have any kind of insurance and, as the population ages, it will also be pensionless. He announced steps for creating a social security system. This included insurance and pension schemes, mostly for the underprivileged segments of society. But India is not the only country that is facing social security problems.

The advancement of healthcare facilities in most parts of the world has resulted in a significant increase in life expectancy. But increasing life expectancy does not necessarily mean that quality of life is also guaranteed to improve in the future. Since people will spend more time in retirement, the level of consumption in those years will depend on savings accumulated during the working age and the kind of security provided by the state. As things stand today, with rapidly ageing populations and the state of government finances in most countries, the future looks challenging.

According to a recent report by the World Economic Forum, the retirement savings gap in eight countries—Australia, Canada, China, India, Japan, the Netherlands, UK and US—will reach about $400 trillion by 2050. The savings gap in 2015 was about $70 trillion. It is important to note that the annual savings gap is estimated to grow by 10% in India, compared with 7% in China and 5% in the US. As a result, the savings gap in India is estimated to escalate to $85 trillion by 2050. Globally, things have also got complicated because of lower returns on investment over the last decade.

The problem can worsen significantly if people live longer than is expected at present. The International Monetary Fund, in its “Global Financial Stability Report” (April 2012), for instance, noted: “…if everyone lives three years longer than now expected…the present discounted value of the additional living expenses of everyone during those additional years of life amounts to between 25 and 50 percent of 2010 GDP (gross domestic product). On a global scale, that increase amounts to tens of trillions of US dollars, boosting the already recognized costs of aging substantially.” The retirement savings gap will not only affect the quality of life of retirees, but can also pose macroeconomic challenges. As the proportion of retirees rises in the population, a shortfall in retirement income will affect consumption and growth. It will also affect fiscal sustainability as governments will have to spend more on retirees even in countries that do not have a state-funded retirement system.

In order to improve financial security, the report suggests that policymakers should focus on three key areas—providing a safety- net pension for all, improving access to retirement plans, and encouraging initiatives to increase the rate of contribution. The study further notes: “It should be the responsibility of the government to provide a pension income for all citizens that acts as a ‘safety net’ and prevents those who miss out on other forms of pension provision from dropping below the poverty line.” This is a worthy goal, but fiscal constraints may prevent many governments—especially in developing countries—from doing so.

The pension challenge in India will be fairly acute. According to the UN Population Division, the share of population aged 60 or above will rise to 19% by 2050, compared with 8% in 2010. The government recognizes the problem and has implemented several reforms in the sector. For instance, it established a pension regulator in 2003 and moved new government employees (except in the armed forces) to a defined contribution-based National Pension System (NPS) from 2004. The NPS was opened to all citizens on a voluntary basis in 2009 and the government offers tax benefits to contributors.

However, all this may not be enough. The biggest problem for India is that about 90% of the workforce is in the unorganized sector and lacks proper access to retirement-saving instruments. Even those who are investing may not be aware how much money they will need after retirement and what it takes to attain that goal—though this is not an India-specific problem. People generally lack the ability to make complex calculations and give more importance to their near-term needs than a longer-term requirement like retirement saving. Therefore, it is important that both the government and the makers of retirement products place adequate emphasis on spreading awareness. Further, it will also be important that products are simple and easily available. Technology can play a big role in making products available to savers. In India, generating more employment in the formal sector will help address the problem to some extent.

As the governments in most countries lack fiscal space, they will need to work on increasing retirement savings in order to avoid the looming pension crisis. Mobilizing savings for retirement could be a big opportunity as it would provide long-term savings which could be used to fund economic growth.

Can the global economy prepare for the looming pension problem? 

Nepal signs mega hydro project deal with Chinese firm

As per the agreement, the storage project would be built under engineering, procurement, construction and finance (EPCF) model. Under this model, CGGC will help arrange funds required to develop the project

Nepal has signed a major deal with a Chinese company to develop a 1,200 MW hydroelectric project, the biggest hydro project in the landlocked country that could resolve its perennial power crisis. Nepal’s Ministry of Energy Sunday signed an MoU with China Gezhouba Group Corporation (CGGC) for the development of teh much-touted 1,200 MW Budhigandaki Hydroelectric Project.

The agreement was signed at the prime minister’s residence, in the presence of outgoing prime minister of Nepal Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ and Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Yu Hong, The Kathmandu Post reported. As per the agreement, the storage project would be built under engineering, procurement, construction and finance (EPCF) model. Under this model, CGGC will help arrange funds required to develop the project.

The funds will be mobilised in the form of soft loan or commercial loan from Chinese financial institutions on terms and conditions acceptable to the Nepal government. CGGC will also undertake the overall responsibility of executing the project.

The Chinese developer, according to the MoU, will also conduct additional studies and investigations on the project if required. The MoU has given one year’s period to the Chinese developer to conduct assessment of the hydropower project and arrange necessary funds for its development.

This understanding, according to Energy Ministry officials, will not bind the government legally or financially to hand over the project to the Chinese company for construction, as the final agreement is yet to be signed. The government has allocated a budget of Rs 5.33 billion for the project’s development in the current fiscal year.

The EPCF model of project development, under which the contracting firm makes all the arrangements including mobilisation of financial resources to build the project, is considered to be one of the most effective and efficient models for development of huge infrastructure projects.

CGGC is currently building 30MW Chameliya Hydropower Project in the far west and 60MW Upper Trishuli 3A Hydropower Project in the central region.

The Budhigandaki Project has been touted as a key project to resolve the perennial power crisis in the country. The government has been raising infrastructure tax of Rs 5 from sales of every litre of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel to collect funds to build the project.