Avoid five things courtsy :mrunal must read about what to avoid

Avoid five things

courtsy :mrunal

must read about what to avoid

must read about what to avoid.i used to tell same thing in class.future and current aspirants should think about this

 

1. Superman “Topper”: “I skipped Freedom-struggle and science for prelim, yet I cleared prelim!”. “For Mains, I did not study anything for GS. I only practiced mains-answer writing! And yet I cleared”. “For Polity, I did not touch any book, I only saw Rajya Sabha TV“…. While it’s possible, because cut-off is 107 / 200, and may be because he has given 2-3 attempts, so even without reading he could recall many theoretical points for GS-mains. But the first attempt-walla youngsters in the impressionable age group, tend to take everything literally without understanding the nuances of this exam.  In statistics, we focus on the aggregates rather than outliers. Therefore, what constitutes the ‘standard strategy’ [derived from the statistical interpretation of the number of questions vs. sources of questions in previous 5 years exams] should be followed at minimum. One should not burn his zhonpdaa (hut) by looking at Topper’s Palace. One swallow doesn’t make a summer. One Cinderella doesn’t mean all will get ruby slippers.
2. Whatsapp & FaceBook “UPDATES”: because of the Dopamine neurotransmitter, a human brain feels compulsion to seek new information. This is important for survival of a caveman, because he must always search new sources for food, foraging and water. But the same chemical, makes you restless to seek new updates on whatsapp / FB- how many people liked my post and profile picture? who said what against my prediction of cut-off and result date etc. A Microsoft study said, Human brain’s span of attention has become less than a gold fish. For example, you’re reading a history book and highlighting lines with orange color. Suddenly, you get impulsive thought “will it’ll be better to use any different color highlighter!?” Then, you spend half hour just browsing e-commerce sites for reviews of Luxor vs Faber Castle markers! At this stage, no point in trying to find ‘better tools and techniques of preparation’. Whatever you’ve, use it and prepare.
3. Telegram “SCAVANGERS”: Constantly 500 different channels uploading 5000 types of current affairs material. You’ve sufficient material already. If, even at this stage (when 2 months left), if you’re still doing ‘haay-haay mere pass material nahi hai‘, [as if UPSC is as semester exam!], Then perhaps you’re not cut out for this year’s attempt.
4. “SCAREMONGERS”: As I had pointed in last mains’ last video– there some ‘chanchal-tatva‘ (restless elements) who release list of 500 “Most IMP.” topics, containing terms, which even our forefathers have not heard in their lifetime. And that too, just two weeks before the exam! If at last minute you start digging net for such new things, you’ll even forget the things you’ve prepared already. Mock tests: should be given to maintain regularity in the pace of preparation. But, there is no direct correlation, that a person getting less marks in mocks, will definitely fail in prelims. So don’t get scared and don’t scare others. You’ll also gain more from solving the recent CDS and CAPF papers [conducted by UPSC itself] than from mock test from random institute.
5. “ROTU-RAM” (Crybabies): “It’s better to secure job first through clerical exam, only then give UPSC”,  “I’ve not prepared this time, so I’ll skip this attempt and give statePSC first.” ,”this year, as such vacancies are less, so competition will be higher, better we give attempt next year!“….all these are example of crybaby talk, you keep company of such defeatist people, they’ll drag you to their own level. For the whole year, they spend more time in “day-dreaming” [about what they’ll do after becoming IAS/IPS] rather than doing actual study. And at last-phase before Prelims, they start all the negative and pessimistic talk. So must avoid their company. If you skip one year, you’ll get rusted. Then it becomes even more difficult to get back into that ‘fitness-zone’, and UPSC is “no country for old men.”

 

analysis of success of candidate attempt wise

From the 65th annual report of UPSC, we find following data about the success rate of aspirants in civil services exam:

15%	Of the toppers have cleared in their first attempt.
26%	In second attempt
26%	In third attempt. So cumulatively 67% OR 2/3rd of the toppers have cleared within first three attempts.
18%	In fourth attempt. So, cumulatively 85% of the toppers have cleared within first four attempts.
15%	In fifth or above attempt.

Bad Bank “PARA”, RBI’s Windfall Profit Post-Demonetization, 4R4D

Bad Bank “PARA”, RBI’s Windfall Profit Post-Demonetization, 4R4D

• CEA Arvind Surbamanian believes that since the earlier ‘alphabetical soup’ of schemes (AQR, SDR, S4A, I&B Code etc.) has failed to solve NPA problem, and since 40% of the NPA is concentrated only in 60 firms, so better we create a centralized agency known as Public Sector Asset Rehabilitation Agency (PARA), which will work as a “Bad bank” and absorb the losses from the PSBs.
• But where to get the money to absorb these losses? Subramanian suggests that the demonetization of Rs. 500, and Rs.1000 rupee notes will create windfall profit for RBI, from which, this bad bank endeavor can be financed. How far is his assumption valid? We’ll see in this video.
• Economic Survey also warn against the moral hazard i.e. once NPA problem is settled, the Bankers may become complacent and again resume reckless lending. Therefore, systematic reforms are required to improve the governance and administration of PSBs, for this, Subramanian and others have suggested many reforms, such as 4R4D framework, Banking investment company (BIC), Bank Board Bureau, Indradhanush Roadmap etc. all of that is compiled in this last part of the NPA lecture series.

 

Twin Balancesheet Problem (TBS)- Three Stages

Twin Balancesheet Problem (TBS)- Three Stages 

economic survey perspective

• As of 31 December 2015, the total non-performing asset of scheduled commercial banks in India have stood at 9.6 lakh crores. Majority of this NPA is concentrated among the public sector banks (PSBs).
• Economic survey notes that the level of NPA in Indian economy, is among the highest in the BRICS nations!
• This NPA problem has created stress in the balance sheets of both the corporate and public sector banks, hence a new term was coined “twin balance sheet problem”.
• CEA Arvind Subramanian has outlined three stages in which this cancer has spread in the Indian economy 1) before the sub-prime crisis, there was a surge in borrowing 2) after the global financial crisis, there was a fall in demand 3) ultimately, corporates had debt servicing problems to a point where their revenue was insufficient even to pay for the interest.
• What is IC1 company?
• Although, India’s case is unique because despite such high level of India, our economy has not collapsed, or come to a standstill, unlike those advanced economies after the sub-prime crisis, or those East Asian tigers after the crisis of 1997.
• Survey projects two scenarios of the NPA/TBS problem: 1) phoenix 2) containment.
• Because of this problem, banks have become reluctant in their lending operation especially the micro and small enterprises.
• The decline in the profitability, has also led to fall in the share prices of public sector banks, some of them even selling below their face value.

 

UKPCS 2016 MAINS TEST SERIES SCHEDULE. STARTING FROM 14th may (English & Hindi medium Separately )

UKPCS 2016 MAINS TEST SERIES SCHEDULE.

STARTING FROM 14th may (English & Hindi medium Separately )

EVERYONE HAS TO DO WRITING PRACTICE BY THEMSELVES OR BY JOINING THE TEST SERIES.

• Increases the quality of content of answer
• Time management ie. to complete the paper within 3 hour with good hand writting and quality content.
• Representation , formatting  the answer within world limit.
• Regularity in preparation.
• coverage of full syllabus

Fees for test series: Rs.6000/

STARTING FROM 14th may (English & Hindi medium Separately )

EVERYONE HAS TO DO WRITING PRACTICE BY THEMSELVES OR BY JOINING THE TEST SERIES.

• Increases the quality of content of answer
• Time management ie. to complete the paper within 3 hour with good hand writting and quality content.
• Representation , formatting  the answer within world limit.
• Regularity in preparation.
• coverage of full syllabus

Fees for test series: Rs.6000/

indo china

Includes aligning its OBOR project with India’s ‘Act East Policy’ and prioritising early solution to border row.

Amid increasing strain in Sino-India ties, China has proposed a four-point initiative to overcome differences and deepen relations which includes aligning its ‘One Belt One Road’ project with India’s ‘Act East Policy’ and restarting negotiations on a free trade pact.

The proposal put forward by Chinese envoy Luo Zhaohui also includes starting negotiations on a ‘China-India Treaty of Good Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation’ and prioritising finding an early solution to the border dispute between the two countries.

“Firstly, start negotiation on a China-India Treaty of Good Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation. Secondly, restart negotiation of China-India Free Trade Agreement.

Thirdly, strive for an early harvest on the border issue. Fourthly, actively explore the feasibility of aligning China’s ‘One Belt One Road Initiative’ (OBOR) and India’s ‘Act East Policy’,” he said.

The Chinese envoy made the remarks while speaking at defence think-tank United Service Institution on Friday but the text of his closed-door address was released by the Chinese Embassy on Monday.

Indo-Pak tensions

Referring to Indo-Pak ties, Mr. Luo has said China is willing to mediate to resolve differences between the two countries if both sides accept it.

He said good ties between the two countries were conducive to regional stability and in China’s interests.

The development of China, India, Pakistan and the stability of the whole region call for a stable and friendly environment, he said.

“Otherwise, how could we open up and develop? That’s why we say, we are willing to mediate when India and Pakistan have problems. But the precondition is that both India and Pakistan accept it. We do this only out of goodwill. We do hope that there is no problem at all,” Mr. Luo said.

During 26/11 attacks

“When the Mumbai terrorist Attack on November 26, 2008, took place, I was Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan, and I did a lot of mediation at that time,” he said.

On the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, Mr. Luo said China had no intention to get involved in the sovereignty and territorial disputes between India and Pakistan.

“China supports the solution of the disputes through bilateral negotiations between the two countries. The CPEC is for promoting economic cooperation and connectivity. It has no connections to or impact on sovereignty issues,” he said.

“China sincere in intent”

“Even we can think about renaming the CPEC. China and India have had successful experience of de-linking sovereignty disputes with bilateral relations before. In history, we have had close cooperation along the ancient Silk Road. Why shouldn’t we support this kind of cooperation today? In a word, China is sincere in its intention to cooperate with India on the OBOR, as it is good for both of us,” he said.

The Chinese envoy said the OBOR and regional connectivity could provide China and India with fresh opportunities, calling the project a major public product China has offered to the world.

“It is a strategic initiative aimed at promoting globalisation and economic integration,” he said.

‘China first, not Pak first’

Referring to the views in India that China always puts Pakistan first when handling its relations with South Asian countries, he has said the government always follows ‘China first’ policy and that “problems” are dealt with based on merit.

“I want to tell you this is not true. Simply put, we always put China first and we deal with problems based on their own merits. Take Kashmir issue for example, we supported the relevant UN resolutions before 1990s. Then we supported a settlement through bilateral negotiation in line with the Simla Agreement. This is an example of China taking care of India’s concern,” he said.

On India’s bid for the membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), he said: “We do not oppose any country’s membership, believing that a standard for admission should be agreed upon first.”

The envoy’s four-point suggestion to overcome differences comes at a time when the relationship between the two Asian powers has been going through a rough patch due to differences on a range of issues, including China blocking India’s move to get Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) chief Masood Azhar banned by the U.N. and its opposition to India’s bid for NSG membership.

Trade relations

On trade ties between the two countries, Mr. Luo said he was happy to see that China has contributed its share to India’s development.

“Today, China is the second largest economy in the world, with a GDP of 11 trillion US dollars. China’s development also benefited from India’s participation.

“We sincerely hope that India can become more developed, as it not only benefits Indian people but also creates more opportunities for China’s development. Some people in the West misread China and tend to think that the ‘Dragon’ and the ‘Elephant’ are inevitable rivals, and that China would not like to see India developing. This conception is wrong. We hope to see India develop well and we are more than happy to help India develop to achieve common development,” Mr. Luo said.

We are victims of terror

On combating terrorism, he said China has been a victim of terrorism.

“China strongly opposes terrorism; second, China is ready to work with India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and the international community in fighting terrorism, and believes that terrorism knows no borders; third, countries need to have compatible policies, consensus and actions in fighting terrorism,” he said.

Making sense of Modinomics

Taking stock of the economics ideology of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and how it has impacted India in the (almost) three years that NDA has been in power

In a little less than three weeks from now, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will complete three years in office. It is a good time if any, to take stock of its economics ideology; since Prime Minister Narendra Modi defines everything about this NDA government, it is only appropriate to dub it Modinomics (taking from Abenomics defining Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s policy thrust).

A quick perusal of some of the big-ticket decisions undertaken by this government suggest that its economics playbook has logic, but not one defined by its right-wing predilections alone. Exactly why it is almost impossible to predict NDA’s actions; and probably why it ends up in the cross hairs of its critics on both sides of the ideological divide who are confounded by its lack of consistency.

While the right accuses it of abandoning the core principles of nudging India towards a truly market-based economy, the left wing critics argue that the NDA hasn’t done enough for the less privileged in the country (and there are about 400 million people living below the official poverty line).

The truth lies somewhere in between.

Modinomics seems to be inspired by results. Given that end, the means merely justify it. So if anything, it seems to be driven by pragmatism and an innate ability to embrace risks associated with out-of-the-box policy decisions (like demonetisation). As a result, its actions are an incredible summation of ideas loyal to the right, left and centre.

In terms of macro numbers, even the prime minister’s worst critics will concede that the worst is behind—though nobody knows when exactly the best will come. Particularly significant has been the battle against retail inflation, lowering it from double digit levels to about less than 5%—and in this the Reserve Bank of India with its singular focus needs as much if not a greater share of the credit.

The biggest worry, however, in the medium term continues to be reviving investments in the economy and generating enough jobs to absorb the 11-12 million joining the workforce every year—both of which will be overriding issues in the upcoming re-election in 2019.

What galls right of centre purists is that despite its predilections, the actions of this government speak otherwise. For instance, one of the promises it got elected to office was on ‘minimum government, maximum governance’; but the last three years has seen this government only expand its role.

Yet at the same time, it has been true to fiscal dharma. Besides sticking to its annual target, it appointed a high- level panel under N.K. Singh, a former revenue secretary and MP, to chart a new blueprint.

It is its pursuit of the anti-corruption agenda which has foxed most people. While most could grasp the logic of the NDA laying the framework of a rule-based regime through a tighter scrutiny of tax returns (especially its latest decision to link Aadhaar with PAN or personal account number for taxpayers), they were totally thrown by the decision to abruptly demonetize high value currency notes on 8 November.

Overnight, Modinomics came to be reviled, especially when the administration learnt that the corrupt were more innovative and the existing system more flawed than they had imagined. Its economic logic, however, got consigned to history as it turned out be a political masterstroke—with most voters seeing it as a bold example of a regime’s bid to walk the talk in the fight against corruption.

Similar confusion abounds in the battle for economic empowerment. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) defined it as a massive populist exercise, which cost the exchequer dear. Modinomics condemned this unequivocally and ridiculed the marque rural employment guarantee scheme; yet it did not cut back allocations and instead increased it to a record high (obviously recognizing the value of it as a short-term safety net to mitigate rural distress caused by poor monsoons).

At the same time though, it has pursued the idea of ‘one nation, one market’ for farmers to sell their products—integrating them into the market economy like never before—instead of getting locked into regional markets controlled by vested interests. The idea of a revamped crop insurance scheme is yet again the use of a market-based instrument to underwrite risk.

Its anti-poverty thrust (like the subsidized cooking gas, electricity for all and health policies for the poor) seems to be driven by the desire to economically empower, instead of purely raining the needy with freebies, and then nudge them to integrate into the formal economy.

It is clear then that Modinomics is bereft of orthodoxy. Eventually it will be judged by deliverables. And in this there is only one metric: jobs. Unfortunately, any official data on this government’s record will be available only after 2019. It will then boil down to managing perceptions. And that is pure politics.