India inches up one spot to 130 in UN human development index

Inequality, particularly in education, has contributed to India’s poor ranking in the human development index, the report said

India climbed one spot to 130 in the latest United Nations Human Development Index (HDI), indicating slow progress in improving people’s living standards in Asia’s third-largest economy.
The country was ranked 130 among 188 nations in the Human Development Report 2015 released on Wednesday by the UN Development Programme (UNDP). India’s ranking of 135 in the previous year’s report was revised to 131, the report said.
Inequality, particularly in education, has contributed to India’s poor ranking in the human development index, the report said.
“India loses 28.6% HDI due to inequality, largely due to inequality in education (42.1%),” it said. “Among BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), South Africa has the highest loss due to inequality at 35.7% and lowest is for Russia at 10.5%.”

Click here for enlarge

Education experts say inequalities in education have not been not addressed by policies such as the 2009 Right to Education, although it is enshrined in law.
“This Act does not address the inequality in education at all, it focuses on the inputs and infrastructure, not the quality of education,” said Parth J. Shah, head of New Delhi-based Centre for Civil Society think-tank. “There is no reference to learning outcomes and this is what we hope the new education policy will address.”
Only 42.1% of India’s population aged 25 years and older had at least some secondary education, the UNDP report said, adding that government spending on education was 3.8% of gross domestic product between 2005 and 2014.
In the 34 years between 1980 and 2014, India’s HDI value increased from 0.362 to 0.609, an increase of 68.1% or an average annual increase of about 1.54%,” said a press statement from UNDP.
HDI is a summary measure for assessing long-term progress in three basic dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, access to knowledge and a decent standard of living.
This year’s report focused on the nature of work and how new technologies and innovations influenced it. “Through work, people can build a secure basis for their lives, enabling them to make long-term decisions and establish priorities and choices. They can also sustain stable households, particularly if they use their income prudently on food and nutrition for their family, on education and health for their children, or for savings,” the report said.
Haoliang Xu, assistant administrator and director of the UNDP’s Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific, who was cited in the UNDP statement, drew out the link between education and work, noting that: “In order to ensure that the work-force is capable of adapting to rapidly changing demands, governments need to make strategic investments into education and health care.”
India has been stressing the need to skill Indians to ensure the 12 million youth who enter the labour force every year are job-ready. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has created a separate ministry to deliver on his “Skill India” mission.
The HDI report said that global participation of women in the labour force—who are generally less educated than men—have fallen slightly in recent years, mainly because of the reductions in India (from 35% in 1990 to 27% in 2013) and China (from 73% in 1990 to 64% in 2013). India’s female literacy rate among youth aged 15-24 years was 74.4% as against the male literacy rate of 88.4%, according to the report.
It said the expected years of schooling in India has been stagnant at 11.7 since 2011. Also, average years of schooling at 5.4 has not changed since 2010.
India’s 2014 HDI value of 0.609 is below the average of 0.630 for countries in the medium human development group but above the average of 0.607 for countries in South Asia, the report said.
In South Asia, countries which are close to India in the HDI rankings are Bangladesh and Pakistan, who have rankings of 142 and 147, respectively.
The average loss due to inequality for medium HDI countries is 25.8% and for South Asia it is 28.7%.
Among India’s HDI parameters that have improved between 1980 and 2014 were life expectancy at birth, which increased to 68 years in 2014 from 67.6 in the previous year and 53.9 in 1980.
Per capita gross national income was $5,497 in 2014—up from $5,180 in 2013 and $1,255 in 1980.

Cyclones

Cyclones are caused by atmospheric disturbances around a low-pressure area distinguished by swift and often destructive air circulation. Cyclones are usually accompanied by violent storms and bad weather. The air circulates inward in an anticlockwise direction in the Northern hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern hemisphere. Cyclones are classified as: (i) extra tropical cyclones (also called temperate cyclones); and (ii) tropical cyclones. The word Cyclone is derived from the Greek word Cyclos meaning the coils of a snake. It was coined by Henry Peddington because the tropical storms in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea appear like coiled serpents of the sea.

Classifications

Cyclones are classified as extra tropical cyclones (also called temperate cyclones); and tropical cyclones.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO, 1976) uses the term 'Tropical Cyclone’ to cover weather systems in which winds exceed ‘Gale Force’ (minimum of 34 knots or 63 kph). Tropical cyclones are the progeny of ocean and atmosphere, powered by the heat from the sea; and driven by easterly trades and temperate westerlies, high planetary winds and their own fierce energy.
In India, cyclones are classified by:

• Strength of associated winds,
• Storm surges
• Exceptional rainfall occurrences.

Extra tropical cyclones occur in temperate zones and high latitude regions, though they are known to originate in the Polar Regions.
Cyclones that develop in the regions between the Tropics of Capricorn and Cancer are called tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems developing over tropical or subtropical waters, where they get organized into surface wind circulation.
Worldwide terminology
Cyclones are given many names in different regions of the world – They are known as typhoons in the China Sea and Pacific Ocean; hurricanes in the West Indian islands in the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean; tornados in the Guinea lands of West Africa and southern USA.; willy-willies in north-western Australia and tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean.

Indian Meteorological Department

The criteria below have been formulated by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which classifies the low pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea on the basis of capacity to damage, which is adopted by the WMO.

Type of Disturbances	Wind Speed in Km/h	Wind Speed in Knots
Low Pressure	Less than 31	Less than 17
Depression	31-49	17-27
Deep Depression	49-61	27-33
Cyclonic Storm	61-88	33-47
Severe Cyclonic Storm	88-117	47-63
Super Cyclone	More than 221	More than 120

1 knot - 1.85 km per hour
Cyclones are classified into five different levels on the basis of wind speed. They are further divided into the following categories according to their capacity to cause damage:-

Cyclone Category	Wind Speed in Km/h	Damage Capacity
1	120-150	Minimal
2	150-180	Moderate
3	180-210	Extensive
4	210-250	Extreme
5	250 and above	Catastrophic

Storm surges (tidal waves) are defined as the rise in sea level above the normally predicted astronomical tide. Major factors include:

• A fall in the atmospheric pressure over the sea surface
• Effect of the wind
• Influence of the sea bed
• A funnelling effect
• The angle and speed at which the storm approaches the coast
• The tides

The very high specific humidity condenses into exceptionally large raindrops and giant cumulus clouds, resulting in high precipitation rates. When a cyclone makes landfall, rain rapidly saturates the catchment areas and the rapid runoff may extensively flood the usual water sources or create new ones.

How Cyclones are formed

The development cycle of tropical cyclones may be divided into three stages:
Formation and Initial Development Stage
The formation and initial development of a cyclonic storm depends upon various conditions. These are:

• A warm sea (a temperature in excess of 26 degrees Celsius to a depth of 60 m) with abundant and turbulent transfer of water vapour to the overlying atmosphere by evaporation.
• Atmospheric instability encouraging formation of massive vertical cumulus clouds due to convection with condensation of rising air above ocean surface.

Mature Tropical Cyclones
When a tropical storm intensifies, the air rises in vigorous thunderstorms and tends to spread out horizontally at the tropopause level. Once air spreads out, a positive perturbation pressure at high levels is produced, which accelerates the downward motion of air due to convection. With the inducement of subsidence, air warms up by compression and a warm ‘Eye’ is generated. Generally, the ‘Eye’ of the storms has three basic shapes: (i) circular; (ii) concentric; and (iii) elliptical. The main physical feature of a mature tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean is a concentric pattern of highly turbulent giant cumulus thundercloud bands.
Modification and Decay
A tropical cyclone begins to weaken in terms of its central low pressure, internal warmth and extremely high speeds, as soon as its source of warm moist air begins to ebb, or is abruptly cut off. This happens after its landfall or when it passes over cold waters. The weakening of a cyclone does not mean that the danger to life and property is over.

Indian Context

The Indian subcontinent is one of the worst affected regions in the world. The subcontinent with a long coastline of 8041 kilometres is exposed to nearly 10 per cent of the world’s tropical cyclones. Of these, the majority of them have their initial genesis over the Bay of Bengal and strike the East coast of India. On an average, five to six tropical cyclones form every year, of which two or three could be severe. More cyclones occur in the Bay of Bengal than the Arabian Sea and the ratio is approximately 4:1. Cyclones occur frequently on both the coasts (the West coast - Arabian Sea; and the East coast - Bay of Bengal). An analysis of the frequency of cyclones on the East and West coasts of India between 1891 and 1990 shows that nearly 262 cyclones occurred (92 of these severe) in a 50 km wide strip above the East coast. Less severe cyclonic activity has been noticed on the West coast, where 33 cyclones occurred the same period, out of which 19 of were severe.
Tropical cyclones occur in the months of May-June and October-November. Cyclones of severe intensity and frequency in the North Indian Ocean are bi-modal in character, with their primary peak in November and secondary peak in May. The disaster potential is particularly high during landfall in the North Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea) due to the accompanying destructive wind, storm surges and torrential rainfall. Of these, storm surges cause the most damage as sea water inundates low lying areas of coastal regions and causes heavy floods, erodes beaches and embankments, destroys vegetation and reduces soil fertility.
Cyclones vary in diameter from 50 to 320 km but their effects dominate thousands of square kilometers of ocean surface and the lower atmosphere. The perimeter may measure 1,000 km but the powerhouse is located within the 100-km radius. Nearer the Eye, winds may hit at a speed of 320 km. Thus, tropical cyclones, characterized by destructive winds, torrential rainfall and storm surges disrupt normal life with the  accompanying phenomena of floods due to the exceptional level of rainfall and storm surge inundation into inland areas. Cyclones are characterized by their devastating potential to damage structures, viz. houses; lifeline infrastructure-power and communication towers; hospitals; food storage facilities; roads, bridges and culverts; cropss etc. The most fatalities come from storm surges and the torrential rain flooding the lowland areas of coastal territories

National policy on Voluntary Sector 2007

National policy on Voluntary Sector 2007

Scope of the Policy

In the Policy, voluntary organizations (VOs) mean to include organizations engaged in public service, based on ethical, cultural, social, economic, political, religious, spiritual, philanthropic or scientific & technological considerations. VOs include formal as well as informal groups, such as:

• Community-based organizations (CBOs)
• Non-governmental development organizations (NGDOs)
• Charitable organizations
• Support organizations
• Networks or federations of such organisations
• As well as professional membership associations.

To be covered under the Policy, VOs should broadly have the following characteristics:

• They are private, i.e., separate from Government
• They do not return profits generated to their owners or directors
• They are self-governing, i.e., not controlled by Government
• They are registered organizations or informal groups, with defined aims and objectives.

Objectives of the Policy

The specific objectives of the policy are listed below:

• To create an enabling environment for VOs that stimulates their enterprise and effectiveness, and safeguards their autonomy;
• To enable VOs to legitimately mobilize necessary financial resources from India and abroad;
• To identify systems by which the Government may work together with VOs, on the basis of the principles of mutual trust and respect, and with shared responsibility; and,
• To encourage VOs to adopt transparent and accountable systems of governance and management.

Establishing an Enabling Environment for the Voluntary Sector

• The independence of VOs allows them to explore alternative paradigms of development to challenge social, economic and political forces that may work against public interest and to find new ways to combat poverty, deprivation and other social problems. It is therefore crucial that all laws, policies, rules and regulations relating to VOs categorically safeguard their autonomy, while simultaneously ensuring their accountability .
• Voluntary organizations may be registered as societies, as charitable trusts, or as non-profit companies under Central or State laws. Some States have adopted the Societies Registration Act (1860), with amendments, while others have independent laws. Similarly, laws relating to charitable trusts vary across States. Over time, many of these laws and their corresponding rules have become complex and restrictive, thus leading to delays, harassment and corruption. As the nodal agency for interface between the Government and the Voluntary Sector, the Planning Commission will encourage State Governments to review prevailing laws & rules and simplify, liberalise and rationalise them as far as possible. In order to facilitate registration of non-profit companies, the Government will examine measures to simplify procedures under section 25 of the Companies Act (1956), including those for license, registration, and remuneration to member-employees.
• The Government will also examine the feasibility of enacting a simple and liberal central law that will serve as an alternative all- India statute for registering VOs, particularly those that wish to operate in different parts of the country and even abroad. Such a law would co-exist with prevailing central and state laws, allowing a VO the option of registering under one or more laws, depending on the nature and sphere of its activities.
• There has been much public debate on the voluntary sector, particularly its governance, accountability, and transparency. It is widely believed that the voluntary sector must address these issues through suitable self-regulation. The Government will encourage the evolution of, and subsequently accord recognition to, an independent, national level, self-regulatory agency for the voluntary sector.
• At the same time, there is need to bolster public confidence in the voluntary sector by opening it up to greater public scrutiny. The Government will encourage Central and State level agencies to introduce norms for filing basic documents in respect of VOs, which have been receiving funding by Government agencies and placing them in the public domain (with easy access through the internet) in order to inculcate a spirit of public oversight.
• Public donation is an important source of funds for the voluntary sector and one that can and must increase substantially. Tax incentives play a positive role in this process. Stocks and s hares have become a significant form of wealth in the country today. In order to encourage transfer of shares and stock options to VOs, the Government will consider suitable tax rebates for this form of donation. The Government will also simplify and streamline the system for granting income tax exemption status to charitable projects under the Income Tax Act. At the same time, the Government will consider tightening administrative and penal procedures to ensure that these incentives are not misused by paper charities for private financial gain.
• International funding of voluntary organizations plays a small, but significant part in supporting such organizations and their work in the country. An organization seeking foreign funding must be registered under the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Act. This law prescribes stringent screening norms that often restrict the ability of VOs to avail foreign funds. When approved, there are problems like funds must be held in a single bank account, thus presenting enormous difficulties to VOs working at different locations. The Government will review the FCRA and simplify its provisions that apply to VOs, from time to time, in consultation with the joint consultative group to be set up by the concerned Ministry.
• The Central Government has framed guidelines for bilateral agencies to give direct assistance to voluntary organizations for projects of social and economic importance. It controls access to such funds and their utilisation, both through the FCRA and through regulation by the Department of Economic Affairs. This system needs to be simplified in consultation with the joint consultative group to be set up by the concerned Ministry.
• The Government will encourage all relevant Central and State Government agencies to introduce pre-service and in-service training modules on constructive relations with the voluntary sector. Such agencies should introduce time bound procedures for dealing with the VOs. These would cover registration, income tax clearances, financial assistance, etc. There would be formal systems for registering complaints and for redressing grievances of VOs.

For More Information: National policy on Voluntary Sector 2007

Policy Updates

Advisory to associations registered / granted prior permission under FCRA, 2010 to incur expenditure above Rs 20,000 by cheques / drafts
The Home Ministry has asked NGOs to incur all expenditure above Rs 20000 by cheque or drafts. "As per the Income Tax Act, any expenditure incurred by certain category of NGOs in respect of which payment is made for a sum exceeding Rs 20000 otherwise than by an account payee cheque drawn on a bank or by an account payee bank draft, shall not be allowed as a deduction under the Income Tax Act," the Circular says.
It adds that the issue of fixing an upper limit for incurring expenditure by associations registered/granted permission under Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA), 2010 by cash from designated bank accounts has been "under consideration" of the government for some time. "The Government, after considering the issue, advises all FCRA associations that items of expenditure/payments amounting to Rs 20000 should be done by cheque or demand drafts," the Ministry says.
It has been further specified that the records and accounts of associations indulging in cash payments of Rs 20000 or more from the designated bank accounts "are likely to require more intensive scrutiny by government" and the circular has been issued with approval of the competent authority.

Launch of TAPI

Launch of TAPI is first step towards fulfilling the vision of an economically integrated region: Vice President

Addresses Groundbreaking Ceremony of the TAPI Gas Pipeline Project

The Vice President of India, Shri M. Hamid Ansari has said that the launch of Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) Gas Pipeline Project marks the first step towards fulfilling the vision of an economically integrated region stretching from the Bay of Bengal to the Caspian Sea. He was addressing at the Groundbreaking Ceremony of the TAPI Gas Pipeline Project in Mary, Turkmenistan today in the presence of the President of Turkmenistan, Mr.  Gurbanguly Berdimohamedov, the President of Afghanistan, Mr. Ashraf Ghani, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr. Nawaz Sharif and other dignitaries.  

The Vice President said that TAPI is not just a gas pipeline project, but a reflection of the common desire of the four member countries to reconnect and a way to re-claim the shared geography and revitalise an age-old legacy of our mutually enriching interactions. The launch of TAPI also marks the first step towards fulfilling the vision of an economically integrated region, he added.

The Vice President said that we must be aware of the challenges that lie ahead and we must work together to keep away the negative forces inimical to the success of the project. We must recognise that the forces of violence and disruption can no longer be allowed to threaten the quest for economic development and security of our people, he added. The Vice President also said that we need to work together to ensure the technical and commercial viability of the project in its broadest sense and said that the international marketplace for energy works on complex principles. However, given the widespread poverty that exists in our countries, it is essential to ensure that we can make energy available at the least possible cost to the largest sections of our people, he added

A Himalayan solution

 

Historic Paris climate pact puts world on green path

 

CoP21 agreement adopted unanimously at the plenary session amid cheers; Common but differentiated responsibilities give developing nations a cushion; Developed nations to raise $100 billion a year as the floor to help other countries

The stage is set for all countries to move to a low carbon pathway with the Paris Agreement on climate change adopting a goal of “well below 2 degrees C” for temperature rise, and instituting a regime of financing of developing economies to help make the transition. Nations are to pursue efforts to aim at the more difficult objective of pegging temperature rise under 1.5 degrees C.

Underpinning the Agreement, which is scheduled to go into effect from 2020, is the system of voluntary pledges, or nationally determined contributions made by individual countries to peak their greenhouse gas emissions that are warming the atmosphere and changing the climate. The reference in the text for the need to achieve an equalisation between emission of Green House Gases (GHGs) and their removal by ‘sinks’ by the second half of the present century has been welcomed widely since it turns attention to renewable energy, and away from fossil fuels.

The text of the Agreement unveiled on Saturday at the 21st meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention Climate Change after two weeks of talks and an intensive three days of convergence negotiations was formally adopted amid cheers at the Plenary.

The UNFCCC principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities ensuring equity is incorporated into the Paris Agreement to provide developing countries a cushion.

India's Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar expressed happiness that the text addressed the concerns raised by India in all areas — mitigation of carbon emissions, adaptation to climate change, financing, technology development and transfer, capacity building and transparency. He said there were some concerns, which he would raise at the Plenary.

Mr. Javadekar told the media that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had always advocated a sustainable lifestyle and climate justice. Both find a place in the Agreement text. The solar alliance which the Prime Minister had launched was another success, bringing together 120 nations and winning plaudits from France. French President Francois Hollande had on Saturday called Mr. Modi about the Agreement, and he expressed hope that it would be a historic pact fulfilling the aspirations of seven billion people. The Paris Agreement requires developed countries to raise finances with $100 billion per year as the floor by 2020, to help developing nations in both mitigation and adaptation activities, while other nations are encouraged to provide funding voluntarily. However, any basis for liability of countries which have historically accumulated greenhouse gases in the atmosphere causing disastrous climate events such as droughts, floods and extinctions, has been excluded.

The first global evaluation of the implementation of the Paris Agreement is to take place in 2023, and thereafter every five years to help all countries. Pledges by countries with an end date of 2025 or 2030 will need to be updated by 2020, and enhanced action every five years thereafter. It will also be possible for countries to cooperate voluntarily, form groups of nations for climate goals, and use both public and private finances, market and non-market mechanisms to meet the objective. A facilitative dialogue of countries is to be held in 2018 to review the collective efforts, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is to be asked for a special report in the same year, on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels.

Major features of the text outlined by French Foreign Minister and CoP21 president Laurent Fabius are:

>> It takes into account the differentiation and responsibility of developing countries, and their respective capacities in light of national circumstances

>> Confirms the key objective of containing mean global temperature rise well below 2 degrees Celsius and to endeavour to limit it to 1.5 degrees

Draft Paris Agreement

>> There will be five-yearly national contributions on actions taken to address climate change

>> There is provision for adaptation to climate change. Cooperation on loss and damage suffered by countries on a long term basis to provide necessary means to all countries for durable development.

>> Provision of 100 billion per year as a floor by 2020 to help developing nations.

>> A new figure to be defined for the period between now and 2020

>> Collective stocktaking every five years of national actions and consideration of steps if efforts are insufficient for the objective set

Road to curb temperature rises

The goal of the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, COP21, is to achieve a legally binding, international agreement to keep average global temperatures no more than 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures*
Global mean temperatures above pre-industrial levels

• 1850-1900
  Average temperature 13.7°C
• 1.0°C
  Temperature rise expected to surpass 1°C in 2015
• 2.7°C
  Forecast warming† by 2100 even if all COP21 pledges are implemented
• 4-5°C
  Forecast rise by 2060 if current emissions levels continue
• 2.0°C
  2010: 193 nations sign Cancun Agreements committing governments to “hold increase in global average temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels”
• 3-5°C
  Warming on existing emissions-reduction policies. Low-lying island states at risk from rising sea levels

*Accurate assessment of temperatures in 1750s – when industrial revolution began – is difficult. To overcome problem, climatologists use average temperatures recorded between 1850 and 1900. †United Nations Synthesis report on aggregate effect of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)

Sources: UK Met. Office Hadley Centre, Climate Action Tracker, WMO - © GRAPHIC NEWS

 http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/cop-21-historic-paris-climate-pact-adopted/article7981450.ece?homepage=true

The nonsense that is gut instinct

 

Just the other day, I was on a random walk around what I maintain is one of the best websites on the Internet right now, The Farnam Street Blog. While there, I stumbled upon an interesting question that had once obsessed me a long time ago: What important truth do very few people agree with you on? It is a question that Peter Thiel asks in his bestselling book, Zero to One: Notes on Start Ups, or How to Build the Future.

The question is an awfully tough one to take head on. Thiel makes it clear that the most common answers, such as “Our educational system is broken and needs to be fixed” or “There is no god”, are bad answers. The former because many people already agree with them. The latter because it is now a familiar debate.

“A good answer,” writes Thiel, “takes the following form: Most people believe in X, but the truth is the opposite of X.”

Having given it some thought, I threw the question at a group of close friends. A quiet, intelligent and soft-spoken friend based out of Bengaluru came up with a compelling answer that I agreed with.

This friend said: “Most people think we will be ruled by data in the future. Wearable tech, sensors at one level, and big data analytics at another level will help us optimize our life. Dictated by that, we will be more efficient, more productive and live a meaningful life. But the truth is emotions will matter more. We will increasingly be guided by our instincts because eventually those numbers will begin to overwhelm us. It is inevitable then that we begin to mistrust the numbers and question the algorithms that crunch the numbers to tell us what we should do. Instead, we will trust our instincts more. So, what will increasingly become more important are not the new devices, but old techniques like meditation and yoga that will help us sharpen our instincts. At present, few people practice these. In the future, the majority will.”

His answer struck a chord with me. I come from a school of thought that believes an individual’s instinct—or gut feel, as we call it—is nothing more than the sum total of our experiences. That is why, how each person sees the world is different from the other person. Everybody’s individual experiences are different.

To that extent, everyone’s version of the truth is different. It is, therefore, incumbent on us not to rubbish another view because it is the outcome of a different experience.

So, a truth I know, but cannot prove, is this: When faced with a mountain of data that we can make no sense of, the only way out is to listen closely to what our gut or instinct has to say.

Now, this whole thing about trusting gut instinct gained currency in 2005 when the celebrated science writer Malcolm Gladwell wrote a compelling account of why it matters in his chart-busting book Blink. He argued forcefully with very many examples of people in situations that demanded they make split-second decisions. Inevitably, he points out, our gut trumps our brain.

If more evidence was needed, Gladwell points out, there are more nerve endings in the gut than in the brain. So, while it may go against stated wisdom that we take time out to think a problem through, if we give those thoughts more than two seconds, we allow our experiences to be subsumed by data.

But my truth came under scrutiny earlier this week when it was challenged at a two-day workshop on design thinking in Mumbai. The idea of this workshop exercise was to figure out how we could possibly approach any issue on hand with innovative solutions.

Having defined a problem, the instructors separated all of us into teams, and equipped us with a set of tools to think the problem through. Crucially, they also prodded us to capture every thought on the assigned problem that occurred in our minds.

Without getting into the specifics, I must confess I was stunned. When left to my gut, much like everybody else in the room, we could think up two to three ideas each. Many of these ideas overlapped as well. After weeding the infeasible ones, the 20-odd people in the room could think up 35-40 solutions.

However, when exposed to a well-thought process and equipped with tools and a little more time on hand, we came up with more than 300 ideas to crack each problem open.

My truth about the power of gut instincts lay in ruins.

Armed with these insights, I turned to Harsh Mariwala, the chairman of Marico Industries Ltd, and asked him how much gut instinct mattered in his scheme of things. Marico has a reputation for being one of the most innovative Indian companies and much of the credit for it goes to Mariwala.

“Instinct or gut feel by itself doesn’t work for me,” he said. “I listen to my gut when everything else that is rational has first fallen into place. Then I know it is the right thing to do. But if my gut isn’t backed by the evidence on hand, I ignore it, however loud it may be.”

If any more evidence was needed to demolish my assumptions on why instinct matters, I stumbled upon a blog post by Scott Berkun. He made a few pertinent observations.

● Our instincts can say contradictory things. For instance, there is a part of ourselves that knows drugs are bad. The other part lures us towards them anyway.

● Instincts are not static. They are biased by recent events.

● Some of our instincts are better trained than others. For instance, if trained in the arts, you can perhaps spot an interesting painting right away. But that may not hold true for an automobile. To that extent, you cannot trust your untrained instinct.

● Instincts can be manipulated. People in advertising, marketing and sales businesses know this all too well. That is why when data stares us on the face, they know what messages to send out that appeal to our instinct.