India to surpass China in population in seven years: United Nations

There will be more Indians than Chinese by 2022 when both Asian giants will have 1.4 billion people each and India's population will grow at a faster pace, according to the UN.

A report from the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs on Wednesday said that in seven years, "India's population is projected to continue growing for several decades to 1.5 billion in 2030 and 1.7 billion in 2050, while the population of China is expected to remain fairly constant until the 2030s, after which it is expected to slightly decrease".

A similar UN report two years ago had projected that the population of each of the two countries would reach 1.45 billion in 2028 when India's would start to grow at a faster pace than China's.

The report issued periodically to update population project and the latest is called "World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision".

It projects world's population current population of 7.349 billion to grow by over a billion to 8.5 billion over the next 15 years and reach 9.725 billion by 2050.

India's bigger population initially gives it the economic advantage of a demographic dividend or benefit from the increased productivity of the youth, but it will also put a greater stress on the resources of India's area of 3.288 million sq kilometres compared to China's 9.597 million sq kilometres.

India will also have to rev up its economy to create jobs for millions more and, therefore, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's has set a target of creating 100 million jobs by 2022 and emphasising the manufacturing.

Although India's population will continue to grow, paradoxically the median age of Indians will increase because of the slowing fertility rate, eroding the demographic dividend. The median age now at 26.6 is expected to rise to 31.2 in 2030, to 37.3 in 2050 and 47 in 2100, the report said.

The fertility rate or the number of children born to a woman is currently 2.48 and is expected to go down to 2.34 by 2020, to 2.14 by 2030 and to 1.89 by 2050, according to the report.

Population experts consider a fertility rate of 2.2 children per woman as the replacement rate, that keeps the population constant over the long range.

Rise in Number of Institutional Child Delivery

Rise in Number of Institutional Child Delivery



The institutional deliveries in the country have increased from 38.7% as per the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-III) in 2005-06 to 46.9% as per District Level Household Survey (DLHS-III) in 2007-08. As per the Coverage Evaluation Survey (CES 2009) conducted by the UNICEF, the institutional delivery is 72.9%.

Institutional delivery rates in rural and urban areas were 28.9% and 67.5% respectively as per NFHS-III in 2005-06 which rose to 37.8% and 70.4% as per DLHS–III in 2007-08. Under CES 2009, the rural and urban institutional delivery was 68% and 85.6% respectively.The ASHA plays an important role in improving access to institutional deliveries by motivating the pregnant mother and her family for continued contact with the health system and ensuring at-least  four antenatal check-ups at health facility, spreading awareness on the Janani Shishu Suraksha Karyakram (JSSK),  which entitles all pregnant women delivering in public health institutions to absolutely free and no expense delivery, including caesarean section and  also serving as a support during delivery and post partum care as required. ASHA is incentivized for performing these activities under Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY).

The role of the Auxiliary Nurse Midwives (ANMs) is to conduct regular antenatal visits at the outreach session namely, Village Health and Nutrition Days (VHND) or at the sub-centres, and also to serve as a Skilled Birth Attendant(SBA) in those sub-centres  which are conducting deliveries.

The role of Self Help Groups (SHG) is to get involved in the Village Health, Sanitation and Nutrition Committees, which are expected to support the functions of the ASHA and the ANM, including improving access for women to institutional deliveries.

Under the National Health Mission (NHM), steps taken to increase the institutional delivery rates across the country include the following:-

·        Promotion of institutional deliveries through Janani Suraksha Yojna.
·        Janani Shishu Suraksha Karyakram (JSSK) entitles all pregnant women delivering in public health institutions to absolutely free and no expense delivery including Caesarean section. This initiative also provides for free transport from home to institution, between facilities in case of a referral and drop back home. Similar entitlements have been put in place for all sick newborns and sick infants accessing public health institutions for treatment.
·        Capacity building of health care providers in basic and comprehensive obstetric care.
·        Operationalization of sub-centres, Primary Health Centres, Community Health Centres and District Hospitals for providing 24x7 basic and comprehensive obstetric care services.
·        Name Based Tracking of Pregnant Women to ensure antenatal, intranatal and postnatal care.
·        Mother and Child Protection Card in collaboration with the Ministry of Women and Child Development to monitor service delivery for mothers and children.
·        Engagement of more than 8.9 lakhs Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs) to generate demand and facilitate accessing of health care services by the community.
·        Village Health and Nutrition Days in rural areas as an outreach activity which also serves as a platform to promote institutional delivery.

In search of freedom

With 2.5 million people a year falling victim to it, human trafficking forms a lucrative illicit economy that must be attacked from every angle.

The United Nations (UN) has designated July 30 as World Day against Trafficking in Persons. It is a good day to remind ourselves of the plight of an estimated 2.5 million people and 1.2 million children who are victims of trafficking every year all over the world.

Kailash Satyarthi

It is also a good day to confront the burgeoning issue of modern-day slavery. We live in times when teenage girls are sold in slave markets for as little as a pack of cigarettes. These are times when young boys are forced to become soldiers and are handed guns and swords instead of toys and books. The examples of trafficking and modern-day slavery are increasing steadily, and require concerted and cohesive action so that future generations are protected.

Despite technology, which has put information and knowledge at our fingertips, civilisation has woken up to the scourge of slavery only in the last few decades. Human trafficking results in and fuels all forms of slavery such as sexual exploitation, forced labour, other forms of labour exploitation, forced marriages, and the abuse of children in armed conflicts. Curbing human trafficking becomes imperative in tackling slavery.

The world over, human trafficking is labelled as the third most lucrative illicit trade, after drugs and arms. But it is, in fact, the single largest illicit trade in the world. Slavery, prevalent in almost all countries of the world, amounts to U.S.$32 billion according to official sources and a definitive U.S.$150 billion according to non-governmental sources.

Take the example of a girl trafficked illegally in a red-light area. A solicitor pays approximately Rs. 500 on an average.If the girl performs sexual acts for 10 people a day and there are 100 such girls in the area, then that area alone generates Rs. 5 lakh in black money in a single day. This, when expanded to the thousands of such areas in almost a hundred countries, amounts to huge amounts of black money. This money is used, in turn, to support all other illicit trades, thus setting off a booming economy based on trafficking.

It is this nexus of black money exchange that needs to be dismantled. The lucrative illicit economy that has been built up around trafficking in persons must be attacked from every angle.

Despite its frightening repercussions, there are major legal lacunae in the definition, tracking and punishment of trafficking. A global concerted effort has come up only in the last few decades, after the passing of the United Nations Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons, Especially Women and Children (Palermo Protocol) in 2000.

In the Indian context, on the other hand, traffic in human beings has been prohibited as a fundamental right granted in the Constitution. Untouchability and trafficking are two crimes that are prescribed as punishable in the Constitution itself.

Despite this, a comprehensive law was laid down only in 2013, which made trafficking a criminal offence. India ratified the Palermo Protocol after a case was filed by my organisation, Bachpan Bachao Andolan (BBA). The Justice Verma committee report has dedicated two entire chapters to the issue on the basis of suggestions and recommendations from BBA.

The delayed action by government agencies against trafficking has resulted in its widespread incidence across the country, which spans from trafficking into forced labour in hazardous work and factories to the seemingly innocuous trafficking into domestic labour. As per official estimates, 15 children go missing every hour in India and 8 are never found. The real number of trafficked children is never known. The international nexus of trafficking has manifestations right inside our homes. Under the garb of supplying cheap domestic help, placement agencies traffic people, making this a large organised crime, especially in metropolitan cities. The problem hence needs not just organisational solutions but societal involvement too.

In this backdrop, other disturbing forms of trafficking are also emerging. Children in armed conflicts, illegal adoptions, the sale of organs, and trafficking for marriage are some of the other ugly heads of trafficking that have emerged in the past few years.

I have always maintained that India is a land of a hundred problems and the mother of a billion solutions. Filling policy gaps to counter trafficking, especially in the area of rehabilitation, is the foremost need. Next in line is an efficient legal response to all reported cases of trafficking. The enforcement of law and the subsequent enforcement of justice must be immediate and become a deterrent.

Trafficking is an organised crime that needs concerted inter-state and inter-agency efforts. Arresting a guilty placement agent, or shutting down a factory that employs trafficked persons is not enough. The entire money trail needs to be tracked and everyone involved tried as per law.

The victims of trafficking, especially children, need safe social and economic rehabilitation. Higher budgetary allocations are needed for their immediate help and counselling, besides making arrangements for their vocational training, housing and repatriation. The reintroduction to education is also a must. Also, changes in the education system to include rights-based information, if given to each child, can lay the foundations of an aware and secure generation. Schools and parents must make children aware of the dangers of trafficking and prepare them to recognise and tackle it.

All these efforts will only see results through dedicated public participation. Our social conscience has to treat trafficking for what it is, a crime and an evil. We can, all of us, help combat trafficking. Stay vigilant and inform the authorities whenever you see a case of exploitation, do not frequent restaurants or shops that employ child labour, report homes that employ children, be sensitive towards victims of sexual abuse, and participate actively in dialogue against trafficking and slavery. Businesses and corporate houses must self-monitor and map their supply chain to ensure there is no trafficking or forced labour.

I believe that together we can eliminate human trafficking across the world. Freedom is a non-negotiable right and each one of us, irrespective of our economic and social status, deserves to have it. The shackles of slavery can never be stronger than the quest for freedom.

An impact that will endure

With his child-like curiosity, simplicity and optimism, no other public figure endeared himself to all sections of India quite like Abdul Kalam did.

Abdul Kalam’s passing has seen a national outpour of grief. This emotional unity in a diverse India is rare in peacetime. No other public figure endeared himself to all sections of society and influenced the minds of millions as Kalam did in the past three decades. The sense of loss Indians feel at Kalam’s death is palpable and transcends the traditional divisions of caste, region, religion, language or political affiliation.

Kalam achieved outstanding success from humble beginnings. The story of his remarkable life is known to every Indian schoolchild. Given our societal attitudes and lack of access to quality education, it is extremely difficult for Indian children not born to privilege to fulfil their potential and make a mark in life. Millions in India saw in Kalam the hope of fulfilling aspirations and achieving eminence in their chosen field. He kept urging young Indians to break out of the shackles of poverty and tradition, to dream big, and to work hard to fulfil their aspirations. And he always linked individual aspirations with national greatness. It is this consistent articulation of individual growth with public good that has left an enduring impact on most Indians, particularly students and youth.

Kalam had many endearing qualities. His utter simplicity and shunning of pomp and privilege touched the hearts of millions in a society used to arrogance of power. It is customary in India for those in office to display their trappings of power, distance themselves from the people, abuse public office for private gain, live ostentatiously, have airs of superiority and foster a VIP culture. Kalam was refreshingly different, and in recent decades was exceptional in his humility, simple life, common touch and speaking straight from the heart.

Indians have developed a great distaste for traditional politics and partisan bickering. Kalam was a symbol of non-partisanship. He was remarkably devoid of malice and pettiness. Those who knew him well won't be able to recall a single comment of bitterness or prejudice in his private or public utterances. He transcended caste, religion, region and language, and represented the best in our society.

Tireless energy

Throughout his long and distinguished life, Kalam retained a child-like curiosity and enthusiasm. His infinite capacity to absorb new ideas and learn, and readiness to spread sensible ideas and successful models made him a great communicator and teacher. Young or old, men or women, all audiences could easily relate to his simple, straight message. By his own estimate, he directly interacted with over 20 million people, mostly students and youth, over the past two decades. The fact that he collapsed and died as he was interacting with students in Shillong at the age of 83 demonstrates his tireless energy and his identification with all languages and regions of India. This poor Muslim boy from coastal Tamil Nadu became a true symbol of the diverse, multilingual, multi-religious India of many layers and many diverse strands.

Perhaps Kalam’s most impressive quality was his robust, undying optimism. He had great faith in the power of technology, and passionately believed India could achieve greatness if we harnessed our opportunities and pursued a path of common sense. His broader priorities and prescriptions for economic growth and national greatness are practical and attainable. He relentlessly focused on agriculture, food processing and urban amenities in rural areas; infrastructure, in particular, reliable and quality electricity accessible to all; quality education and healthcare for all to give real opportunity to every family; information and communication technologies; and critical technologies and strategic industries related to defence, space and nuclear sectors.

He was not a prophet of doom. He was an eternal optimist and problem-solver, who always saw possibilities and opportunities for the nation. His vision of India emerging as a developed economy within a generation and occupying her rightful place among global giants captivated the nation and electrified the imagination of youth. His vision of national greatness was rooted in improving the living conditions of all Indians. Again, he always sought to establish the link between prosperity and a better life for all Indians and national greatness. It is these personal qualities and his simple, direct message relevant to our age that made him the icon of the younger generation and the much-beloved elder statesman that he was. That is why he became the authentic symbol of a resurgent, aspirational India. And that is why he wielded influence way beyond the offices he held. In recent decades, he stands tallest in terms of the real influence and impact he had on the minds of tens of millions of people.

It would be no exaggeration to say that in his own quiet, simple way, Kalam in recent decades emerged as a great nation-builder. He defined new nationalism for an emerging India. Our sense of nationhood was fashioned by Mahatma Gandhi and our freedom fighters during the national movement. It was largely based on opposition to colonial exploitation, the rejection of racial prejudice of an alien ruler, rediscovery of our past glories and civilisational strengths to shore up our self-esteem, and the deification of Mother India to build unity and patriotic fervour.

Gandhiji, more than any other Indian, built a nation out of disparate, diverse groups, castes, religions, languages and regions. His feat was unique and unrivalled in the annals of world history because there has never been a nation as complex and diverse, and living in as many different layers — spanning from the 17th century to the 21st century — as India. In the past three decades, Kalam helped redefine this sense of nationalism to suit current needs. In this day and age, nationalism has to be based on unity transcending diversity, the fulfilment of aspirations, giving opportunities for growth and prosperity to every child irrespective of birth, the liberty of all citizens irrespective of caste, gender or religion, and respect for universal human values and rights.

Lasting legacy

Kalam’s most enduring and important legacy will be the fostering of this sense of new nationalism and the robust optimism in India’s quest to fulfil such a vision. Undoubtedly there is a vast gulf between Kalam’s and India’s collective vision and dreams, and the rickety, quarrelsome, inefficient, often corrupt political culture and governance institutions. We need to do a lot, and quickly, to bridge this chasm and make this dream of national greatness and opportunities for all a reality within two decades. Our moribund, partisan, corrupt political process driven by mindless lust for power without purpose needs to be transformed. Politics must once again become a noble endeavour with a purpose, as Mahatma Gandhi envisaged.

Our bureaucracy must be imbued with a sense of purpose, and must become an instrument for delivering services and achieving goals for the public good. We need to give back power with accountability to communities, organisations and institutions at every level so that the best impulses prevail, talents are harnessed, and leadership in every sphere is nurtured. As a people, we must rediscover the capacity to pay a short-term price to promote the prosperity of the next generation and enhance long-term public good. And we need to remind ourselves that the nation is above self, and above accidents of the womb and the many sectarian divisions that continue to plague us.

Gandhiji gave us a sense of nationhood. Kalam endeavoured to inject optimism and show us a practical roadmap. We can, and will, fulfil our national destiny and give opportunity to every child and wipe every tear from every eye, as Mahatma Gandhi had hoped and Kalam dreamt.

All form, little substance

The real test of a foreign policy is coherence of design, consistency in execution and efficacy in outcomes. A comparison of the outcomes secured by this government with those achieved since the late 1990s shows that the current foreign policy looks ordinary.

In two recent speeches, the Foreign Secretary, Dr. S. Jaishankar, has enunciated the strategic underpinnings of India’s foreign policy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The speeches are characteristically incisive, thoughtful and provide useful insights into New Delhi’s evolving approach to international relations. Nevertheless, since these speeches were public interventions, a few thoughts may be worth bouncing off their polished surface.

Srinath Raghavan

The burden of the speeches was to flag apparently far-reaching shifts in India’s approach to foreign affairs. Even while the Foreign Secretary conceded some continuity with the past, he insisted that we are witnessing “different times”. A simple “smell test” of the diplomacy of the last year would point to this “reasonably clear conclusion”. Foreign policy under Mr. Modi is marked by “greater confidence, more initiative, certainly stronger determination” as well as a series of innovative approaches.

Engaging with the neighbourhood

The Foreign Secretary rightly held that Mr. Modi’s decision to invite South Asian leaders for his swearing-in, in May 2014, heralded a “big shift” in India’s policy towards its neighbours. By engaging intensively with the neighbourhood, Mr. Modi has indeed managed to project India’s leadership without ruffling sensitivities in the region. In particular, his engagements with Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan have given a fillip to plans for subregional connectivity and integration.

That said, our relationships with the Western neighbours leave much to be desired. It is not surprising that the Foreign Secretary slurred over Pakistan in his speeches. Here, the government has struggled to reap dividends of the “big shift” — largely because it shifted away from its original position. By calling off talks last year and by taking the initiative to resume them now, the government has showcased its inability to craft a sustainable approach to Pakistan. The position with Afghanistan is worse still. Repeating platitudes about “Afghan-led reconciliation process” and “internationally accepted red-lines” is unlikely to get us very far. In reality, there is an ongoing Pakistan-facilitated process to arrive at a settlement with the Taliban. More importantly, this process has the approval of the United States, China and Russia. The limitations of our policy towards Afghanistan over the past year are amply clear — not least in the manner in which traditional partners like Russia have edged closer to the Pakistani position.

Looking beyond the subcontinent, the Foreign Secretary underlined the government’s pattern of engagement with various other regions. The Prime Minister’s “integrated” tours to countries in East Asia, the Indian Ocean and Central Asia are evidently indicative of a different approach — one that also seeks to exploit the openings that may be offered by local balances of power. The prime ministerial itineraries certainly lend credence to this claim. And the outreach to some neglected countries is to be welcomed.

But is there a novel strategic approach at work? Take the case of the Indian Ocean region. The Foreign Secretary stated that there is a new, integrated approach in place — with emphasis on “exchange of information and coastal surveillance, building of infrastructure and strengthening of capabilities”.

Assessing policy

In fact, each of these initiatives began under the previous government. For instance, the maritime domain awareness systems inaugurated during Mr. Modi’s visit to Seychelles, in March 2015, were the outcome of an older initiative encompassing several Indian Ocean countries. As for beefing up our maritime capabilities, it may be worth pointing out that this year’s Budget actually cut the Indian Navy’s share of defence allocation to 13.5 per cent from 16 per cent in the last year. Perhaps the real problem of integration lies within the Government of India.

Beyond such quibbles, there is the larger question of how to assess our foreign policy. A “smell test” can hardly suffice. The real test of a foreign policy is coherence of design, consistency in execution, and efficacy in outcomes. The last in particular is the litmus test.

Compare the outcomes secured by this government with those of the National Democratic Alliance government under Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the first United Progressive Alliance government under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Over a similar period in office, Mr. Vajpayee tested nuclear weapons, travelled to Lahore, repelled Pakistani aggression in Kargil, and opened new avenues in our relationship with the U.S. and China. In the same time frame, Dr. Singh concluded the agreement on parameters to settle the boundary with China, announced the nuclear deal with the U.S., and made headway with Pakistan in backchannel talks. By this standard, the present government’s foreign policy looks ordinary. To be sure, the government has a long way to go and there is no reason to judge it by the performance so far. Still, the government might wish to refrain from talking up its own policies.

Bonhomie and the results

Talking up, however, seems to be an integral part of its conception of foreign policy. Indeed, this was a running theme through the various innovations pointed out by the Foreign Secretary. “Personal chemistry” has apparently emerged as a “powerful tool in our diplomatic kit”. There is a measure of truth to this. The Prime Minister does seem to have a personal affinity for leaders such as the Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, and the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. In other cases, as with the American and Chinese leaders, there was more of orchestrated bonhomie. In any event, the role of personalities in diplomacy can hardly be denied.

Yet, as the British diplomat Harold Nicolson observed, diplomacy is ultimately “disagreeable business”. The mere fact of leaders getting along well can hardly ensure convergence in policies and actions. The Foreign Secretary’s claim that Mr. Modi’s visit to China, in May 2015, resulted in the “world’s most powerful selfie” — when Mr. Modi posed with China’s Premier Li Keqiang — may be true; but it can scarcely disguise the fact that the Chinese refused to accede to Indian wishes on such key issues as clarification of the Line of Actual Control or increased market access. The number of followers on Twitter or Facebook is no measure of real power or influence. There is a danger here of getting trapped in a social-media echo chamber of tweets and posts, “likes” and “favourites”.

Creating narratives

This is equally true of the government’s emphasis on creating narratives about India and coining neologisms. The Foreign Secretary was perceptive in highlighting the role of strategic narratives. The importance of moulding opinions held by a variety of constituencies and actors is undeniable in contemporary international politics. Narratives differ from ordinary stories in that they deal with the way in which issues are framed and responses suggested.

A successful narrative will enable the consumer to distinguish between important and trivial issues, good and bad news. It will suggest ways of piecing together seemingly disparate developments while disentangling others. The fundamental requirements of any strategic narrative are appropriateness and credibility. The government seems a bit oblivious to both. The notion that highlighting India’s role in the First World War buttresses its demand for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council falls short on the first criterion. Making large claims for a “Neighbourhood First” policy while eliding the missteps on Pakistan or Afghanistan fails the second criterion. Moreover, communication is currently too focussed on personality and style as opposed to ideas and outcomes.

The Foreign Secretary has coined his own neologism in these speeches: India as a “leading power”. Hitherto, he argued, India had remained content to be a “balancing power”. It is perhaps time to take the lead on global issues and demonstrate our willingness to shoulder global responsibilities. This seems unexceptionable, though his suggestion that in the past India had been “neutral or risk averse” is a gross misreading of our diplomatic history.

So far, the real constraint on such ambitions has been weak state capacity. This affects both our ability to grasp the big strategic picture and our ability to get the nuts and bolts right. On the former, we only need to look closely into the Ministry of External Affairs’ flawed assessment of the prospects of a nuclear agreement between Iran and the United States. Equally striking is the absence of any coherent response by the government to the major changes sweeping the global economic landscape: the mega-regional trade deals driven by the U.S. and the ‘One-Belt One-Road’ envisioned by China. On the latter, think only of our inability to deliver on any number of regional promises of cooperation and connectivity. Instead of focussing on flaky “soft power” initiatives such as Yoga or Buddhism, the government should aim to get its institutional muscle into shape. Otherwise, our partners may come to see us not as a “leading” power but as a misleading power.

Dr. Kalam: An idea, a vision and a dream

I write this obituary from the C-130 Air force plane with Dr. Kalam’s mortal remains a few feet behind me to be taken to Rameshwaram. He is draped in the national flag, the tricolor he served and deserves. He was the hero of my generation – I remember how I used to be glued to his Presidential address just as I was finishing school. He was an ocean of experience, ideas and motivation and to capture his personality and contributions in a few hundred words is a near impossible task. But as Dr. Kalam always said, “don’t stop trying” so here goes my attempt.

Srijan Pal Singh

“Funny guy! Are you smashing?” This is what I would hear from Dr. Kalam at every single dinner or lunch we had together. “Smashing” was the typical “Kalam call-sign” for asking whether the food was good. “Funny guy” was of course a more complicated expression, which could mean a whole variety of things. Depending on the tone in which it was said, it could mean good, not good, embarrassing or simply a casual reference. If you were working with Dr. Kalam, being able to decipher his usage of the word “funny” was almost a mandatory art to know which could be learnt only through experience. It took me a good one year to figure it out! Funny!

Dr. Kalam was a teacher, mentor, guide, co-author, friend, boss from whom I received care like a mother and concern like a father. I had the great fortune of working with him closely, travelling with him so frequently for over six years, till the point he left us all. He was infectiously optimistic, to him there was never an end. He never really watched TV, but still was a cricket fan – asking me scores on matches when we travelled between functions. His favorite cricketers were Dhoni and Sachin. I remember if I told him India was not doing well in a particular match, he would reply, “Watch! Our captain will come and do something unique.”

Uniqueness was so common to him. He had a voracious appetite for knowledge. The library and reading room occupying half of his 10 Rajaji Road House would be spilling books into bedroom and sometimes right upto the garden. He never departed on a journey without carrying a couple of books in his hand baggage. On the very last day of life, I remember lifting his hand baggage – it was heavy. I said, “Sir! Your bag is getting heavier!” He replied, “That is because I am reading more!”

To me the line which separated Dr. Kalam from the rest was not just his knowledge. It was his sensitivity and humility. He always introduced everybody as friend — whether it be his secretaries, his driver, his gardener, his cook or the people who maintained his house or even a stranger he just met. To him the world was truly flat, and there was no place for hierarchies and ranks in his life. I have had lunch and dinner with him at least 2000 times – often being the second to come to the table. Not once did he start eating on his own, not once did he miss asking whether I was liking the food.

He had the gift of empathy – and his memory of other people’s difficulties was impeccable. That was his art of winning over people. If he saw anyone with even with a small cold on a day he would offer you medicine or hot soup. The next day his first words would be – “Are you repaired?” No matter what you replied, his reaction would be, “Funny fellow you are!”

Dr. Kalam’s greatest faith was the nation and its youth. Even in the final two hours of his life, we discussed on terrorism as a threat to sustainability and the issue of Parliament becoming dysfunctional – two recent pieces of news which had pained him the most. He trusted the youth, particularly his students, to come up with a solution for these issues. He was an eternal believer in the power of the ignited mind of the youth – which he termed as most powerful, on the earth, above the earth and under the earth.

What next? We are bereft of Dr. Kalam as a physical form but we are still blessed with Dr. Kalam as an idea, a vision and a dream. His thoughts and missions about empowering rural areas, about clean energy, about value based education, about creativity, innovation and integrity are still flying high.

When I was his student in 2008 at IIMA, he told me in an after-class conversation, “If you are blessed with intelligence, and empowered with education – it is your responsibility to change the world”. That statement changed my life. He often said, “my dream is to see a billion smiles on billion faces”. Let us give our eternally optimistic, grand old friend, inspiration, mentor and beloved People’s President of the nation a reason to smile, wherever he is now. Salute you Kalam sir!

Srijan Pal Singh was an advisor to Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam.

reduction in role of RBI

At first glance, the revised draft of the Indian Financial Code released last week, 853 days after the Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission (FSLRC) published the first draft, seems to be a balancing act.
It has recommended substantial dilution of the powers of the proposed Financial Sector Appellate Tribunal (FSAT). This will replace the existing Securities Appellate Tribunal and entertain appeals against all financial sector regulators, including the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), but won’t have the powers to set aside any regulations which the first draft had envisaged. This is good news for the Indian central bank, but the not-so-good news is the composition of the monetary policy committee or MPC that it has proposed.
The latest draft gives the Union government the right to appoint four out of seven MPC members. It also takes away the veto power of the RBI governor even as he will have a casting vote in the event of a tie in the MPC (which can happen if one member is absent at the meeting).
A January 2014 report on revising and strengthening the monetary policy framework by RBI deputy governor Urjit Patel had recommended a five-member MPC with the governor as the chairman, the deputy governor in charge of monetary policy as vice-chairman, and the executive director in charge of monetary policy as a member. Even the two other external members, according to the Urjit Patel report, should be picked up by the chairman and vice-chairman on the basis of their expertise and experience in monetary economics, macroeconomics, central banking, financial markets and public finance. Overly tilted in favour of RBI, this report also suggested that the governor and, in his absence the deputy governor, will have a casting vote in case of a tie, but it was not in favour of the governor enjoying the veto power.
The idea of the veto power of the governor was mooted by the original report of the FSLRC which had spoken about a seven-member MPC, chaired by the RBI governor. While one member will be from the RBI, five independent experts in the field of monetary economics and finance will be appointed by the Union government, it had suggested. Of the five, the appointment of two members will be in consultation with the governor. It had also said that a representative of the central government, without having any voting rights, would participate in the MPC meetings to express the views of the finance ministry. The revised draft has changed the representation of RBI: government ratio in the MPC from 2:5 to 3:4 but dropped the proposed veto power of the governor.
This has sparked off a debate on the government maiming RBI and enjoying a greater say in the making of India’s monetary policy. The fear is politicization of the process as the members chosen by the government are expected to toe the government line, which often has short-term views on growth and inflation.
Let’s take a look at how the central banks in the developed markets work on monetary policy. In the US, the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC decides on the Fed funds rate. Indeed, its seven board members are appointed by the president but their appointments are ratified by the Senate. And, there are instances of the Senate rejecting the president’s nominee. For instance, in August 2010, the US Senate scrapped the nomination of MIT professor and an expert on taxes and social security, Peter Diamond, to the Federal Reserve Board. There are five more FOMC members who are regional reserve bank heads, taking the total number to 12, each having one vote. The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee has nine members, including the governor, three deputy governors and the chief economist of the central bank. UK’s chancellor appoints the rest, who are independent. A member of the Treasury is allowed to attend the meetings and join the debate but doesn’t have a vote. The European Central Bank has a larger committee to decide on interest rates, consisting of six executive council members with permanent voting rights and 19 representatives from member states.
The fight between the finance ministry and RBI on the central bank’s so-called autonomy is not new. Rajan’s predecessors D. Subbarao and Y.V. Reddy had pitched battles during their tenures. While Reddy’s run-ins with the finance ministry were more on specific issues, Subbarao fought over broader policy issues. Many believe that RBI lost the battle for autonomy to the ministry of finance when Parliament passed the regulatory dispute resolution bill, paving the path for the creation of the Financial Stability and Development Council. Ahead of that, an 18 June 2010 ordinance empowered the finance ministry to resolve all disputes between the regulators, prompting then governor Subbarao to write to the finance minister, saying “the appearance of autonomy is as important as the actual autonomy itself”, and “the very existence of a joint committee (the council) will sow seeds of doubt in public mind about the independence of regulators”. The governor urged Pranab Mukherjee, then finance minister, to “allow the ordinance to lapse” but Mukherjee did not oblige him.
Even if the government enjoys the power of appointing four of the seven members of the MPC and the RBI governor does not enjoy the veto power, there’s nothing to worry about as long as the credentials of the members are impeccable and they are not serving government officials. Since the minutes of the MPC meeting will be made public, the government will be exposed if it plans to push its agenda through its nominees. Also, not the governor alone but the entire MPC will be held accountable if the inflation target is missed. This means everybody will have a stake and credibility to defend. The new set-up will not dent RBI’s autonomy, but even before it is put in place, the finance ministry should stop expressing its opinion on interest rates.