21 June 2015

Six steps to a successful sanitation campaign

Inadequate sanitation costs India $54 billion a year. To that, add the challenge of juggling our nationalistic aspirations of superpowerdom with the ignominy of housing the largest share of human population that defecates in the open.
Amid many reports that the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan (SBA) is failing, we need a dose of optimism. While SBA might be failing, it certainly isn’t the first, nor will it be the last state-led sanitation programme to fail in India. Our large schemes to tackle this challenge have, more often than not, ended up as models of just what one should avoid doing if they are serious about bringing about total sanitation.
It is now widely acknowledged that conventional approaches are not working: those that set up a false dichotomy between construction and behaviour change; those that are content with pit latrines as opposed to functional toilets; those that use reductionist conceptions such as communities being open defecation free rather than focusing on personal and environmental sanitation and hygiene as a whole; and those that settle for incremental coverage instead of full coverage from the start.
However, it’s not that there are no success stories within India or in our immediate neighbourhood. For one, the experiences of locally-embedded NGOs that have taken their interventions to scale can be highly instructive. There have also been state-led successes in Maharashtra and Himachal Pradesh that can offer valuable lessons. So what could some key design elements in a sanitation programme be?
First, do not approach communities with a single message (build and use toilets), but with a comprehensive health and hygiene intervention. Gram Vikas, an Odisha-based NGO, approaches communities with a package of interventions: a toilet and bathing room, and a community-level overhead tank to provide piped water supply to all houses through three taps (one each in the toilet, bathing room and kitchen). The community engagement should start with the promotion of individual level, household level and environmental sanitation. This will automatically place an emphasis on the participation of every household in the community. Also, talk about menstrual hygiene. Doing this makes the programme one that talks to communities about their lifestyles, health, livelihoods and dignity, rather than just about toilets.
Second, instead of being subsidy-averse, be ready to experiment until you get the design right. Recent research in Bangladesh shows that a subsidy helps overcome barriers to sanitation that cannot be overcome by information campaigns alone. Specifically, they find that joint investment commitments from a community accompanied with subsidies targeted at the poorest families helps increase take-up. The same is the experience in Maharashtra under a state-led sanitation programme. The popular failings of subsidies in India have been due to a combination of mis-targeting, poor community buy-in and shoddy construction. However, an optimal level of financial assistance and delivery should continue to be part of the policy design and implementation strategy.
Third, play on local power relations. Messages targeted at young women encouraging them to demand that toilets be available in households they marry into seem to have worked in many places. On the other hand, it is important to ensure that messages targeting women and girls are not misinterpreted in patriarchal societies that usually make up the audience. Supporting the poorest households (who are also likely to lower caste groups) can also translate into social pressure on the rich (and upper caste) households to catch up in terms of adopting safe sanitation practices.
Fourth, allow communities to evolve their own norms around individual and collective rights and responsibilities. As the water and sanitation infrastructure is being built up, gram sabhas should deliberate about shared codes of conduct and keeping the campaign to promote toilet usage running. While one may not be in favour of local norms that border on coercion, it is best to allow time for shared norms to evolve.
Fifth, do not hurry into scaling up: Yes, big numbers are important in a vast country like India. However, all too often, organisations in a rush to scale up end up compromising on key design elements that made their pilots a success. This is a typical problem with sanitation programmes. When communities become aware of the ‘target-pressures’ on the field staff, it gives them undue bargaining capacity. In an attempt to hasten their work, staff also focus more on the ‘hardware’, ignoring the critical ‘software’.
Sixth, and perhaps most important, be conscientious about quality. The poor do not deserve poor solutions to be thrust upon them. When designing a communications campaign, do not insult the intelligence of the communities you are working with. When constructing toilets, pay utmost attention to technical specifications.
One may be tempted to say that these are impossible conditions for a large-scale state-led programme to pull off. In each of these six components outlined above, it is important to integrate a dose of experiential learning and evidence-informed decision-making. It is critical that implementers are responsive to the dynamic context. The successful sanitation practitioners bring with them years of experience of engagement with informal institutions, local governance structures and local institutions such as schools, clinics and anganwadi centres.
A clear message from years of failure is that technocratic and reductionist approaches will struggle on the ground. Transformative change requires a willingness to work with local politics, allowing for interventions to take root and mature, and an evidence-informed learning approach that eschews pre-conceived biases. A fully decentralised system of implementation is non-negotiable. Only then will we start making progress towards the goal of ‘Swachh Bharat’.

'GROSS VALUE ADDED - GVA' .

A productivity metric that measures the difference between output and intermediate consumption. Gross value added provides a dollar value for the amount of goods and services that have been produced, less the cost of all inputs and raw materials that are directly attributable to that production

 In a major overhaul of the way India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is calculated, the Central Statistics Office will start measuring the country’s economic growth by gross value-added (GVA) at basic prices, replacing the practice of measuring it by GDP at factor cost.
The new measurement under the new base year of 2011-12, replacing 2004-05, will be released on 30 January for three years to 2013-14.
This is the most comprehensive review of the GDP measurement, including the sources of data, ever undertaken, said Pronab Sen, chairman of the National Statistical Commission.
The new method was recommended by the United Nations System of National Accounts in 2008 and will make India’s GDP growth numbers comparable with that of developed nations.
GVA at basic prices will add the net of production taxes and subsidies to GDP at factor cost. While the change in base year is likely to lead to a higher GDP, the impact of the measurement change is unclear.
Stamp duties and property taxes are part of production taxes in India, while subsidies to labour, capital and investment such as apprentice subsidies and interest subsidies constitute production subsidies.
The Indian economy grew at 6.7%, 4.5% and 4.7% during 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 fiscal years, respectively. Sen said that along with GVA at basic prices for these three years, revised measurements for GDP at factor cost will also be provided in the appendix for historical comparison. Providing GVA growth rates at basic prices historically for earlier years may take longer, he said.
The statistics department will release the advance estimates of the economy for 2014-15 along with the fiscal third quarter data on 9 February.
The change in base year is being done in accordance with the recommendation of the National Statistical Commission, which had advised to revise the base year of all economic indices every five years. The new base year has been selected in line with the latest quinquennial round of employment-unemployment survey.
The new 2011-12 series will incorporate results of the recent national sample surveys such as enterprise survey (2010-11), employment-unemployment survey (2011-12), all India debt and investment survey, situation assessment survey of farmers and survey on land and livestock holdings (2013). It will also take into account the population census (2011), agriculture census (2010-11) and livestock census (2012).
The statistics department will also release Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January with a new base of 2012 next month. The GDP data revision will also incorporate the new CPI instead of the current practice of using CPI for various groups such as agricultural labourers and industrial workers. The new series of Index of Industrial Production and Wholesale Price Index are likely to be released by March 2016.
The change in base year of national accounts statistics will result in an increase in the size of the economy in 2013-14 to Rs.111.7 trillion as against the earlier estimate of Rs.105.4 trillion, said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist and senior director (public finance) at India Ratings.
“The 2013-14 fiscal deficit and current account deficit are likely to decline to 4.3% of GDP (4.6% earlier) and 1.6% of GDP (1.7% earlier), respectively,” he said.
India Ratings expects the economy to reach $3 trillion by 2019-20 with the change in base to 2011-12, it said in a statement. On the 2004-05 base, it would have happened a year later in 2020-21.
“Of the last three base year changes, while the size of economy changed significantly in two cases, it did not change much in one case. The growth impact of a base year change both in India and recently in UK has been minimal,” the rating agency said. “The reason for the increase in size of the economy is the usage of more up-to-date information for these estimations
GVA is linked as a measurement to gross domestic product (GDP), as both are measures of output. The relationship is defined as:
GVA + taxes on products - subsidies on products = GDP
As the total aggregates of taxes on products and subsidies on products are only available at whole economy level,[3] Gross value added is used for measuring gross regional domestic product and other measures of the output of entities smaller than a whole economy. Restated,
GVA = GDP + subsidies - (direct, sales) taxes
Over-simplistically, GVA is the grand total of all revenues, from final sales and (net) subsidies, which are incomes into businesses. Those incomes are then used to cover expenses (wages & salaries, dividends), savings (profits, depreciation), and (indirect) taxes.

RBI's inflation indicator

RBI's inflation indicator
The basket of goods whose prices are measured by CPI inflation is constant. Hence, the CPI reflects the prices of goods and services consumed by domestic households. It is the best indicator
The chief economic advisor, Dr Arvind Subramanian, has recently suggested that it may worthwhile revisiting the issue of which inflation indicator the RBI should use in conducting monetary policy. His basic argument rests on comparing the somewhat contrasting recent trajectories of inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), the wholesale price index (WPI) and the GDP deflator. While the CPI is currently still around five per cent, the WPI inflation and the GDP deflator numbers are close to zero. Consequently, if one measures the stance of monetary policy by the repo rate minus the inflation rate, CPI inflation suggests that monetary policy is very accommodative while the other two suggest that it is very tight. Which of these measures is most informative for policy?
The choice of indicator rests crucially on the requirement that the chosen indicator reflect current inflationary pressures in the economy as accurately and as quickly as possible, since monetary policy needs to respond in a timely fashion to unfolding developments. One of Subramanian's proposed candidates is the WPI. This measure is wholly unrepresentative of the economy since it doesn't include the service sector which comprises over 60 per cent of output and around 40 per cent of employment in India. Any measure that fails to include the service sector will fail to provide a reliable indicator of the true state of the economy.
Another of his candidates is GDP deflator inflation. This measure has at least two problems. First, the GDP deflator includes prices of the country's exports, which can often have very little to do with the prices being paid by consumers domestically as also the types of goods being consumed locally. Consequently, it is an incomplete indicator of domestic inflation, which makes it of relatively limited usefulness.
Second, the GDP deflator is subject to large uncertainty due to its dependence on GDP estimates from the national income accounts. As is well known, GDP numbers are subject to large and significant revisions over time. The first estimates of quarterly GDP that are put out by the CSO are necessarily based on quick estimates which subsequently get revised as more data for the previous quarter come in. These revisions often continue for over a year. India is no exception in this. In the USA, the revision of quarterly GDP growth numbers have averaged nearly 1.5 percentage points since 1965, a period when average US GDP growth has been 2.7 per cent. Clearly, inflation based on the GDP deflator is a rather poor reflector of the true contemporary state of the economy.
In view of these limitations of other measures of inflation, central banks the world over mostly tend to target either headline or core CPI inflation (core inflation excludes some items like food and fuel). The CPI is not prone to large revisions. Moreover, the basket of goods whose prices it measures is constant. Hence, the CPI reflects the prices of goods and services consumed by domestic households. It is presumably for these reasons that the RBI has chosen to target headline CPI inflation. It is the best option amongst the available alternatives.
One concern with the CPI is that it may not accurately reflect prices faced by producers since it measures prices paid by consumers. The difference between producer prices and consumer prices is typically the distribution cost of getting the good from producers to households. It is conceivable that CPI inflation might be higher than inflation in the producer price index (PPI) due to increases in distribution costs. Unfortunately, the PPI does not yet exist in India though the recently constituted Goldar committee is currently working on it. Once it becomes available, the RBI could consider enhancing the information set on which it takes decisions to include the PPI. But this has to be clearly announced to the public.
The last point about clear announcement brings me to a much more fundamental problem with Subramanian's suggestion of revisiting the CPI as the inflation indicator. A key component of inflation is the private sector's expectation regarding inflation. Thus, firms set prices and labour negotiates wages based on their expectations of future inflation. Clarity regarding the inflation indicator that the RBI is using as well as the target level of inflation are both key for private agents to anchor their inflation expectations. This is precisely what the recent agreement between the RBI and the government on a four per cent long-run target for CPI inflation was meant to achieve. For the CEA to the government to now suggest that this may be worth revisiting is unfortunate, since it risks undercutting the precise goal of the agreement that the government itself signed.
The sub-text underlying Subramanian's suggestion is of course the government's desire that the RBI lower interest rates more aggressively. Subramanian justifies this by implying that high interest rates are stretching firm balance sheets and thereby causing further problems for banks that have lent to these corporates. This is disingenuous at best, since it conveniently omits to mention that the deterioration in firm and bank balance sheets occurred over the past few years when real interest rates were hovering close to zero by all measures of inflation. The causes of this balance sheet fragility are clearly elsewhere.
It is perhaps best for the government to focus on dealing with the structural issues facing the economy instead of trying to undercut some of the better articulated operating procedures like CPI inflation targeting for some purely short-run expediency.These statements are more likely to just confuse markets

India’s first visually challenged diplomat

IFS gets “hidden treasure” in Beno Zephine; 10 things to know about India’s first visually challenged diplomat

Beno Zephine being felicitated in DoPT
DURING the last few days senior ministers in the corridors felicitated a 25-year-old girl from Tamil Nadu. She is Beno Zephine. Literally, Beno means daughter of God and Zephine means hidden treasure. Yes, Indian Foreign Service gets a “hidden treasure” when Beno Zephine became the first 100 per cent visually challenged person to be inducted into the country's elite foreign service. Here are 10 things you may like to know about Beno Zephine.

1. Daughter of Indian railway employee Luke Anthony Charles and Mary Padmaja, a homemaker, Beno secured the 343rd rank in the 2013-14 civil service examination.
2. But, she had to wait as the government had to change the rules to accommodate her in IFS. After all, the existing government rules did not allow anyone with 100% blindness to be an IFS.
3. Beno’s first choice in UPSC was the Indian Foreign Service. So, when she got a call on June 12, 2015, from an under secretary-ranked official in the ministry of external affairs informing her that she was selected, she was overjoyed.
4. She is a post-graduation in English literature from Loyola College, Chennai.
5. After she completed her MA in 2013, she was selected as a probationary officer with the State Bank of India (SBI).
6. "With my first salary, I bought a gold chain for my father and earrings for my mother”, she said in an interview with rediff.com recently.
7. Her mother read out many books for her. Also, she regularly listened to the 9 o'clock news of All India Radio from her childhood, something which helped her cracking the UPSC examinations.
8. After her joining in SBI and passing the civil service examination, he gave motivational speeches in schools and colleges across the state of Tamil Nadu. She loves tell the students: “Understand your strengths and weaknesses, only then will you be able to strengthen your strength and weaken your weakness.”
9. Beno’s enthusiasm and zeal to work had earned her the title of "Collector" among the residents of the colony in Chennai from where she hailed, according to a Government of India statement about her felicitation.
10. When personnel minister and MoS in the PMO Jitendra Singh felicitated her recently, additional secretary and EO Rajiv Kumar, additional secretary T Jacob and other senior officials of DoPT made it a point to join the felicitation programme and encouraged h

Name defaulting companies

Name defaulting companies
A front-page item in the June 14 edition of this newspaper ("Infrastructure companies' debt woes worsen") indicates that the debt burden of several Indian infrastructure companies has risen to unserviceable proportions. Contrary to expectations, public sector undertakings such as NTPC and Power Grid Corporation are financially healthier, with considerably lower debt-equity and higher interest-coverage ratios, than some private sector companies such as Jaiprakash Associates, Adani Power, GVK Power and Infrastructure, GMR Infrastructure and Lanco Infratech. Currently, the government's and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s attention is focused on the extent to which debt-laden Indian firms need financial assistance and the consequent risk capital requirements of the banking sector. Public sector banks (PSBs) have higher levels of stressed assets than private banks, as they are more susceptible to pressures from government to lend for long-gestation infrastructure projects.
On July 15, 2014, the RBI issued a notification titled "Flexible Structuring of Long Term Project Loans to Infrastructure and Core Industries", which has come to be known as the 5:25 year scheme. This order appears to be designed to allow banks to revise the terms of long-term loans every five years over a 25-year period without having them classified as restructured. CRISIL has warned that about Rs 50,000 crore worth of infrastructure loans disbursed under this 5:25 arrangement would need lending terms to be further softened.
Although infrastructure development is needed, side-stepping of credit risk considerations on long-term loans ends badly for banks. No governmental or regulatory magic can make credit risk disappear. Financial engineering can at best slice risk and package it such that lenders can manage it better.
With this as the backdrop, the RBI followed up on its February 16, 2014, "Framework for Revitalising Distressed Assets in the Economy - Guidelines on Joint Lenders' Forum (JLF) and Corrective Action Plan (CAP)" with a notification dated June 8 this year and titled "Strategic Debt Restructuring Scheme" (SDR). It is farcical that the RBI felt the need to state a universally accepted basic banking norm in this order that the "general principle of restructuring should be that the shareholders bear the first loss rather than the debt holders".
The RBI's June 2015 SDR notification allows banks to take over 51 per cent or more of promoter equity within 30 days of reviewing a company's accounts. Of course, banks are urged to offload such equity stakes quickly since they do not have the expertise to manage the companies they take over. It is likely that takeover of companies under the RBI's SDR would be challenged in courts. For this and several other reasons, the government's intention to get a new bankruptcy code enacted - as announced in this year's Budget speech - should be implemented urgently.
The right to recompense for lending institutions should include interest or principal waived in the past. That is, restructuring agreements should require that if and when a company or related companies regain financial viability, they make good on the debt repayments that were foregone earlier. If the legal position on such rights for lenders is unclear, this should be included in the proposed bankruptcy code.
At the end of March 2015, total non-performing assets (NPAs) of PSBs were 5.2 per cent of disbursed loans and their stressed-assets ratio stood at 13.2 per cent - that is, around Rs 7 lakh crore. The total proportion of stressed assets, including private sector banks, is around 10 per cent. According to corporate debt restructuring (CDR) cells of banks, about 300 companies are looking to reschedule debt totalling Rs 3 lakh crore. For instance, Bhushan Steel is seeking extensions in the maturities of debt amounting to Rs 35,000 crore and banks have rescheduled Rs 7,500 crore of debt owed by Anil Ambani group's Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering. Separately, Mukesh Ambani-promoted Reliance Gas Transportation Infrastructure has refinanced debt amounting to Rs 16,000 crore, with repayments stretched out to 2030.
In the past 12 months, stock prices of companies overladen with debt, for example, Unitech, Jaypee Infratech, Jaiprakash Power Ventures, DLF and GTL, have fallen significantly, reflecting doubts about the ability of these companies to service their debt. And Essar Steel's Joint Lenders Forum is finding it difficult to reach consensus to recover about Rs 12,000 crore owed to them.
Taking a step back, Indian sponsors starting with relatively low levels of equity capital often invest across four or more companies. Debt is contracted for the balance-sheet needs of these four companies - and, say, three out of the four companies go bust. It is possible that one out of this group of four companies ends up doing well. The owners then default on loans for the first three companies, resulting in higher NPA levels all around, since banks cannot acquire assets of the fourth company, which is profitable.
The RBI's "Master Circular on Wilful Defaulters" of January 7, 2015, and notification on "Collection and Dissemination of Information on Wilful Defaulters" of April 23 provide enough wriggle room for large borrowers to make complex legal arguments that default was not wilful. Banking regulators in developed countries do not use such measures since in their jurisdictions there are comprehensive bankruptcy laws. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the RBI has resorted to this wilful defaulter mechanism because of the interminable delays in Indian debt recovery tribunals and corresponding appellate tribunals. In practice, some smaller firms end up getting terrorised by this wilful defaulter label. On balance, this distinction between wilful and other defaults should be abolished.
PSBs have to share the blame, too, because they usually delay decisions on debt rescheduling requests, converting manageable liquidity issues into solvency problems. Banks should be made accountable to respond to debt restructuring requests in a time-bound manner. If banks allow rescheduling, it should clarify that debt servicing delay was based on risks the borrower could not have anticipated.
To sum up, taxpayers can legitimately demand, as the ultimate lenders of last resort, that the RBI instruct banks to list on their websites estimates of the face and present value of debt that has been restructured. Such disclosures for borrowings with at least Rs 1,000 crore as principal should have a salutary impact on borrower and lender behaviour. The RBI should provide readily accessible summary information on its website about all corporate debt defaulters and the amounts involved. If there are any legal infirmities or ambiguities to providing such information, this should again be rectified in the proposed bankruptcy code.

Politicians may come and go, bureaucrats remain

Politicians may come and go, bureaucrats remain. As the poet says:
“Though kings and tyrants come and go
A soldier's life is all I know
I'll live to fight another day
Over the hills and far away.”
AS Ajit K Seth ended his extended 4-year-term term as India’s cabinet secretary on Saturday, prime minister Narendra Modi posted three tweets to praise one of Seth's initiatives in cabinet secretariat called “Art in Steps” before wishing him for the “new phase in his life”. For the low-profile bureaucrat who studied chemistry in St Stephen’s college in early 1970s and served two prime ministers -- Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi -- as their cabinet secretary, it was mainly the art of good chemistry that worked in his favour. First, let’s read what Modi had to say for Seth on Saturday…
“After a distinguished career spanning 4 decades, Cabinet Secretary Shri Ajit Seth retired today. Best wishes for the new phase in his life”, was Modi’s first tweet. Then, the PM went on to praise Seth’s “creative effort”. “Ajit Seth ji shared with me about ‘Art in Steps’, a unique initiative at Cabinet Secretariat to promote art and spread message of cleanliness…Staircases were cleaned and along their walls paintings by officials and their spouses were placed. A creative effort!” PM said.
As Seth himself described, “Art in Steps” is an initiative to display paintings, photographs, and sculptures made by civil servants and their spouses. Those are being kept in the cabinet secretariat premises. “The walls of the corridors and staircases provide a good setting and the eye-catching exhibits are impossible to miss”, wrote Seth, as displayed in the corridors. In fact, the initiative which is also called “Stairing at Art”, began in the month of February 2015. The exhibits are replaced periodically and after being displayed for a couple of weeks, those are returned to the civil servants or their spouses.
When Modi came to power in May last year, many thought the axe would fall on bureaucrats who called the shots during the UPA regime. But to surprise many, Modi gave Seth a 6-month-long extension only to be renewed again for another six months. “It’s Seth, not (principal secretary to PM) Nripendra Misra, who knows the strength and weaknesses of each of the current union secretary. And prime minister Modi may ask for Seth’s frank assessment of each of the secretary before undertaking a bureaucratic reshuffle at the Centre,” BoI wrote in a post dated June 3, 2014 when Seth was given an extension. But as it turned out, Seth’s chemistry with Modi turned better every passing month. Seth made his presence felt in the corridors’ major activities despite the two Mishras (principal secretary to PM Nripendra Misra and additional principal secretary to PM PK Misra) advised the PM in all policy and appointment matters.
When Seth’s appointment as India’s cabinet secretary was announced in May 2011, BoI wrote: “When all powerful man in PMO Pulok Chatterji dictated terms in Raisina Hills during UPA-I, his batch-mate from the same UP cadre Ajit Kumar Seth was the resident commissioner in New Delhi’s Uttar Pradesh Bhawan. Seth had a higher rank in 1974 batch IAS merit list, but no one even bothered to bet on Seth that this man from UP might one day snap the country’s top bureaucratic job. For six long years, Seth -- known for his honesty and meticulous work -- remained a mere resident commissioner in UP Bhawan. Finally, he got the break when he was appointed as secretary, coordination and public grievances in cabinet secretariat in January, 2009. And the rest is history now…”.
But Seth proved everyone wrong. He managed both the regimes, of Manmohan and Modi, pretty well. When he was an OSD in the run-up to his elevation as cabinet secretary, Seth handled the Baba Ramdev crisis for the UPA government. It was June 2011. Seth was seen in Delhi airport’s Terminal-I along with the then cabinet secretary KM Chandrasekhar. The then UPA government took an unprecedented move to send four cabinet ministers, the then finance minister Pranab Mukherjee, telecom minister Kapil Sibal, parliamentary affairs minister Pawan Kumar Bansal and tourism minister Subodh Kant Sahay, to the Delhi airport to persuade the Yoga Guru Ramdev not to go for his proposed fast. But the move backfired. And Seth got his on-the-job experience just a few days before he took charge as the country’s top bureaucrat.
And as he exits now, the same Ramdev is a very influential person in the corridors. No wonder, Seth spent the last few days of his office in preparing for the coming International Yoga Day, the rehearsal of which is being conducted by none other than the Yoga Guru himself.

The Importance of Being #'Rurban

A categorical distinction is facing rough weather--that between urban and rural. If we take just agriculture, there is so much of the outside world that comes in not just as external markets but as external inputs. Further, many of our villages barely qualify as rural if we were to take occupation alone. So the earlier line that separated the farmer from the worker in towns is slowly getting erased. By now agriculturists are ready to accept that their future lies elsewhere, perhaps in cities and towns, perhaps also in household and informal industries. If they cannot make it to those places, at least their children should.
Dipankar Gupta (dipankargupta@hotmail. com) teaches at the Shiv Nadar University, Noida, Uttar Pradesh.
This is the text of my V K R V Rao lecture delivered in May 2014 in Bengaluru. A fellowship in Teen Murti Memorial Museum and Library got me started on this subject. I subsequently benefi ted from discussions with a number of scholars at the National University for Education Planning and Administration, New Delhi, and Shiv Nadar University.
Hard To Be Rural
India may not yet be quite urban, but neither is it rural. Perhaps, the clumsy term “rurban” might suffice for the time being; for time being it is, given the rapid transformation that is taking place in Village India.
When India became independent, almost 50% of the economy was rural; the latest figures tell us it is barely 14% now. The rate of growth in agriculture hovers around 2.5% to 3.5% per annum. This, as we can easily tell, is well below the gross domestic product (GDP) growth figures for the country as a whole. True, big farmers are now a rare sight in villages, but this blight does not affect big farms alone, but the agricultural sector in general. This should be seen alongside that the area leased in has fallen, according to the 59th round of the National Sample Survey (NSS 2006: Table 3.2). Sharecropping is more or less a thing of the past. Area under food crops came down between 1950–51 and 2009–10 from 80.7% to 73.5% (Red Book 2008: 35). Naturally, and it is almost predictable, between 1994 and 2001, real investment in agriculture declined by as much as 20% (Acharya et al 2004: 216). That this has been happening steadily over the years does not reduce the effect of its cumulative impact on agriculture. Quantity does yield to quality sooner rather than later.
Today, roughly 80% of landholdings in India are below five acres, and about 66% below three acres. Some of this must be credited to land reforms, for they have made the acquisition of large holdings legally suspect, but, in a great measure, one has to hand it to demography. What the abolition of zamindari (big landlords) set out to do was accomplished most comprehensively by population growth and subdivision of holdings. Where villages were once dominated by powerful landlords, today they are home to thousands of small, family farms. Family farms, by definition, have very little scope for hiring labour, except perhaps during the peak harvesting season. Large and medium farms are finding it hard to survive on land, which is why the ranks of small and marginal farmers keep growing (DACNET 2013; Chand et al 2011: 7; NSS 2006).
By now agriculturists are ready to accept that their future lies elsewhere, perhaps in cities and towns, perhaps also in household and informal industries. If they cannot make it to those places, at least their children should. Thus, while cultivators, in general, constitute about 44.0% of the rural population, this number rises to 63.6% if we take only those among them who are over 60 years of age (IAMR 2008: 233). Most small family farms are clearly being tended to by the older generation so that their young can go out into the big, wide world.
Agriculture is not outside market forces, nor do farmers want it that way. This is because almost all villagers are tied to the market for their needs and are not self-sufficient, as many peasant myths go. Not only is there now an increased dependence on cash crops, but also, as a consequence, a greater reliance on chemical inputs and pump sets. From 1981–82 to 2009–10, the percentage of cropped area to cereals and millets went down by more than 9%. The markets for jowar (sorghum) and bajra (millet) are nowhere near that for wheat or rice, and hence they are not favoured by farmers, who are looking for monetary returns.
When we come to non-food crops, a similar trend is seen. Between 1955–56 and 2011–12, oilseed production went up six times—cotton lint by about eight times, and sugar cane by more than six times. As with coarse cereals, jute, the poor person’s cash crop, only doubled in production in the same period. All this tells us where the money lies (RBI 2012a, 2012b). This increase in cash crop cultivation also meant a 25-time hike in the use of fertilisers and a threefold increase in multiple cropping. The number of pump sets went up from 2,00,000 to 25 million between 1960 and 2009, and so many of them are from China (Biggs and Justice 2011: 6). And why should they not?
It is for reasons such as these that another categorical distinction is facing rough weather—that between urban and rural. If we take just agriculture, there is so much of the outside world that comes in, not just as external markets, but as external inputs. This is the biggest difference from the past. Further, many of our villages would barely qualify as rural if we were to take occupation alone. All too often people continue to live and work in villages but are almost urban in terms of their work profile. So the earlier line that separated the farmer from the worker is slowly getting erased. This is why a labourer will seek work outside agriculture, for when he returns home after a day’s toil, say as a rickshaw puller, there will be money jingling in his pocket. Small change, one might say, but big money from the worker’s point of view. This is what prompts the poor villager to leave every morning for the bus stop or the village square in the hope that he will catch a contractor’s eye and his day will be made.
Rural Non-farm Income
As a result, there has been a tremendous increase in rural non-farm employment (RNFE) all over the country. What was once a secondary occupation for most villagers is often the primary one today. The NSS shows that the percentage of non-agricultural households increased from a pre-existing high of 31.9% in 1993–94 to 42.5% in 2009–10.
In 2009–10 the contribution of non-farm sector to the rural net domestic product was 65% (Reddy et al 2014: 10; Table 5; for an earlier estimate see Chaddha 2003: 55). Nor is this a story of the developed regions in India. The more backward the districts, the higher the proportion of men in household industries. In Uttar Pradesh (UP), for example, six times more men than women work in these manufactories and in Rajasthan the figure jumps to an unbelievable 10 times (Census of India 2001). When we examine the census data, we find that factories and workshops have quite a strong presence in rural areas. They dominate rural regions in states as disparate as Kerala, Punjab, Odisha, and Gujarat (Census of India 2001: Table H-1). A recent census of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) confirms the lively presence of enterprise in villages. When it is about registered units, rural India houses 45.2% of them, but in unregistered ones, there are as many as 60.2% in the countryside (MSME Annual Report 2012–13: statement 2.1; p 21).
This probably also explains why rural to rural migration is quite active. This is an area we do not pay sufficient attention to because the move to cities is much more dramatic in its outcome and numbers. After all, figures show that 29% of rural migrant households migrate from rural India and that 55% of them do so for economic reasons, with self-employment playing a major role in this (Press Information Bureau 2010). The rural rate of migration too is a respectable 26% (Press Information Bureau 2010), with nearly 91% of the movement coming in from other villages (NSS 2007–08 estimates it at 70%). We might as well underline that these migrants primarily fill the ranks of units that are categorised as “self-employed,” and in which, on an average, between two to five people work (MSME Annual Report 2012–13: statement 2.1, p 21). So, rural India is not just agricultural anymore and caters to the international as well as national urban market in terms of manufacturing. A large number of products—from bric-a-brac to clothing, to gems and jewellery, and now even to machine parts—which have a rural provenance are now available in urban households and markets.
Thus, while we have family farms that are proliferating in villages, we also have the rapid multiplication of self-employed enterprises. These outfits are the closest one can come to family farms in a non-agricultural setting. Therefore, there is an urban aspect in the village, much as there are rural aspects in cities, brought about primarily by migration from villages. We would be better off with the term “rural–urban nexus,” rather than “rural–urban continuum,” for one penetrates the other in such a fashion that a slide rule-like concept seems inadequate. Further, the very fact that there is a rural–urban nexus forces us to see the effect of the city on the village in ways other than that of acquisition (telephones, scooters, motor cars, coffee shops, and so on), and also in terms of the economy.
We cannot talk of rural India without calling out to the urban world. In the past, village field studies usually saw the town and country relationship as a one-dimensional phenomenon. For example, even in the works of Epstein (1973), it is the city that is influencing the village, but there is no word of the movement the other way. There are detailed descriptions in accounts of this sort that document how many motorcycles, TV sets, and coffee shops are in villages. But what they fail to point out is that villagers are not sleeping at the switch. They too are active agents who are keen to exchange their mud huts for urban shanties.
Nor can we really think of energising small farmers without radically addressing their felt needs and where they earn their real incomes from. This is because their economic and aspirational horizon is no longer confined to the village perimeter. As a result, there has been a diminution in the status of agriculture as an occupation. Family farms have, consequently, lost some of their esteem as a precious gift to be harvested in perpetuity. As needs have escalated, as scales of operations have increased, as inputs are getting costlier, the family farm is no longer what it was earlier cut out to be.
In the fitness of things, should we then not call the villager of today a “rurbanite”? Such a person has left much of tradition behind, though a fair amount is palpably present in a number of interactions. This makes the rurbanite a complex, multi-faceted, ambitious, and yet somewhat handicapped individual. There are a number of features that express this variegated term, but none better than the desire to get educated (Desai et al 2010: 80–81) and leave agriculture, and if possible, the village altogether. This is another reason why a greater number of literates tend to migrate from country to town (NSS 2008–09: H-ii). There has also been a steady rise in the migration of male workers from rural to urban India. In less than 10 years, from 1999–2000 to 2007–08, the number went up from 36.5% in 1999–2000 to 41.6% in 2007–08 (Kundu and Saraswati 2012: 221). In just one year, between 1999 and 2000, the proportion of people migrating for jobs jumped by as much as 15% (IAMR 2005: 303, Table 6.12).
All this goes to show that we need to check if the diacritics that once served so well in separating town from country are relevant any longer. It should not be surprising that over five billion railway tickets are sold every year in India. As anyone who knows this country will vouch, even this figure is an understatement, for most people travel ticketless on Indian Railways.
To understand the nature of rural dynamics, one must perforce look at the village as a part of a larger society. In traditional sociology, for instance, there was a great degree of attention to villages and village studies, but they suffered, in the main, from one serious flaw. For most of the scholars who worked on this subject it was their village that mattered most and India was a distant reality. There were, of course, many exceptions to the rule, but that was the rule. Even when some village experts looked at change, the overall orientation was one where the urban was impinging on certain aspects of rural life and changing it in cosmetic ways. There were tea shops, more motorcycles, more radios, and so on, but the village itself seemed more or less undisturbed. Fortunately, scholars today see little purchase in studying an isolated village—they would rather examine villages around themes that engage the country.
When examining this issue, it is impossible to ignore three major aspects that tumble out. The first is the emergence of small towns, and with it the enormous growth of the informal sector, particularly in terms of its contribution to the formal sector and to manufacturing. Second, we need to look at the growth of education, which is a necessary corollary to the first. Finally, an issue that cannot be overlooked is interesting changes that have taken place in inter-caste relations that upset most of our traditional views on the Hindu hierarchical system. Put all these together, stir it, and what you get is the rurbanite in more than one dimension.
Small Towns and the Informal Sector
That a large number of rural migrants find jobs in urban India as unskilled labour, working at things that many of their counterparts do in rural units, draws the village closer to the city in pure economic terms. As a corollary, it might be mentioned that small towns are growing at a very fast rate because real estate prices are lower there than in large metropolitan centres. The rural impact is very high in new million-plus and yet-to-be-million-plus towns. So when we talk about the nexus, we are really highlighting the interpenetration of rural and the urban, and not just a loose chain of relations (Bhagat 2011).
If we take enterprises that employ less than 10 workers, rural India follows close on the heels of urban India (IAMR 2009: 167). These are also units that service the export sector, both directly and indirectly. So our shabby manufacturing urban outposts with poor “rural” employees are actually integral parts of a global economy. It should also be noted that it is not as if only women work in such units, and in places like Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan, the census records more men than women in household industries (Census of India 2001).
Unlike what we see in old Bollywood films, rural migrants generally do not come alone. They have a network that brings them to urban jobs and it is this network that supports them in between jobs. A network of this kind is nearly always community or region specific, which is why there are multiple networks criss-crossing one another in an urban site. Villagers long to belong to such networks, but I have also seen villages that are bereft of these long-distance ties. It is hard to explain why some villages are well endowed with such connections and others lack them. The distribution appears very idiosyncratic for a lot depends on chance, and chance alone.
In the last 20 years, a large number of cities have joined the million-plus club. In the Greater Mumbai urban agglomeration (UA), the 2001 census recorded a population increase of 30.47%, but it is now down to 12.05%. Likewise, growth in the Delhi UA slowed from 52.4% to 26.69%, and the Kolkata UA from 19.6% to 6.87% during the same time. What is, however, stunning is that between 2001 and 2011, small towns continued forming and growing rapidly. This is a fact that not many fully appreciate. The Census of India shows that 18 new cities with over a million people have emerged, but that is just a tiny part of the story. Besides the emergence of these big urban centres, there are 72 new class I towns and about 2,770 census towns (Census of India 2011). The last might look like a village at first sight, but has already developed enduring urban traits and that is where many rurbanites live.
Not only are the cities that have barely touched the million mark, such as Ludhiana, Varanasi, Bhopal and Kochi, growing in number, they are also assuming serious urban characteristics. In these aspiring big cities, a proportionately higher number of white-collar jobs are coming up than in full-blown megalopolises. According to a Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI)–Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) survey, in contrast to the older established metros such as Delhi, Mumbai, or Chennai, new managerial positions are opening up in smaller tier-2 cities. In Hoshiarpur and Meerut, for example, the increase is 100% and 133.3% respectively (Nayyar and Jain 2012: 21) This is probably why more than 50% of rural graduates prefer small towns to metros (Kundu and Mohanan: 13). This also explains why Surat, Patna, Pune, Jaipur, and Indore have growth rates exceeding 40%, much higher than that of Kolkata, or even Mumbai.
Small towns also manufacture a number of products that may not attract the eyes of those who live in metros, but these are serious money-spinners. Ghari Detergents, for one, is an extremely popular brand that few people in Delhi or Mumbai might know about. It is produced and packaged in a factory not far from Kanpur and its turnover is higher than all the Godrej fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), including Cinthol, put together. Then there is Sanjay Ghodawat, who runs a Rs 1,000-crore empire in Manakpur, which is a nondescript town about 160 kilometres from Kolhapur, another small town. In this connection, how can we overlook Tirupur in Tamil Nadu, which is the hosiery capital of India and has experienced enormous growth over the last 20 years (TNUIFCL 2011: 10)? Likewise, Agra, Bhiwani, Panipat and a host of other small towns are bustling centres of manufacturing activity, but almost always on the back of informal labour.
Many of these small towns were villages till yesterday and have broken with their official status as “rural” only recently. This makes a large number of “rurbanites” autochthones and they are joined by a large number of migrants from villages. This is simply because most growth is taking place there, which can be gauged from the massive increase in slums. In Pune, once a small town that was even looked at as a kind of “resort,” the slum population increased six times between 1971 and 2011 (DNA 2011). Delhi, Nagpur, Kolkata and Chennai have a lower percentage of slum dwellers than either Meerut and Pune, which have now taken second and third place respectively after Mumbai (Times of India2011; Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation 2011). Ludhiana, for example, has a slum population that touches 50% (Bengal Chamber of Commerce and Industry 1993: 6.10). Many small towns with a population of about 1,00,000 have beauty parlours and gymnasiums, Pizza Hut outlets and ATM machines. They also have a number of English-medium schools and management and technical institutes. As a matter of fact, it is hard not to find them even in slightly larger villages. This explains why graduates from rural areas tend to prefer small towns to the metros.
Is it surprising then that nearly 20% of India’s billionaires live outside metros?
There are probably many reasons for this shift to small towns. The most widely acknowledged is that of lower real estate costs. Equally important is that the kind of enterprises that are coming up there require low level skills, which freshly recruited villagers and resident rurbanites can easily muster. This explains the continuation of informal labour in our industrial workforce today, an issue to which we shall soon return. Also the smaller the urban area, the greater the proportion of land given to industry and mercantile activities. Cities with over 1,00,000 people have about 1.8% of its developed land devoted to commercial use, whereas in smaller urban areas, the proportion is almost 3.2% (Venkateswaralu 1998: 23). When we come to industrial use, we find again that while 6.8% of all land is devoted to that purpose in all states, it is only 5.1% in metros but as high as 14% in towns with populations between 5,00,000 and 1,000,000 (Venkateswaralu 1998: 23).
Take away a handful of companies in information technology (IT), telecommunications, and financial services, and it is hard to overlook that informal labour comprises about 93% of our workforce. This is a gold mine for small investors, looking for quick returns, with very little skill at both ends—management and labour. Not only is cheap labour pouring out of every vein, there is also no pressure to maintain proper records—if this means paying off a labour inspector, that is small change.
It is then to be expected that the dependence of the formal sector on informal/unorganised workers will grow over time in India. In 1999–2000, it was 37.8%, but it went up to 46.6% in 2004–05, and is still climbing (NCEUS 2007). When labour is ready to be hired for a song, it is tempting for business houses to rely on the informal sector. Besides, as everybody else is doing just that, it would be ruinous to play fair. If truth be told, this scruffy underclass contributes as much as 43% of our export earnings (Planning Commission 2002; Tata Services 2007: 35). Finally, consider this: The vocationally trained labour force is a stagnant 5% in India, but a staggering 95% in South Korea.
Education-Seeking Rurbanite
However, an important and necessary qualification for being a “rurbanite” is education. Notwithstanding the general ruination of the village economy, what stands out is the emphasis rural people place on education. That this is so strikingly close to what urban people do gives us another reason to classify the bulk of those who live in Village India as “rurbanites.” Whereas only 2% of Indian children went to private schools in 1980, today as many as 21% of rural children go to such institutions (Desai et al 2010). Clearly, the poor in the countryside are spending way above what they can actually afford to make sure their children get a better future.
True, rural literacy today is only 67.8% compared to 84.1% in urban India. Yet if one looks at the rate of growth of literacy, a different picture emerges. Literacy shot up in rural India at the rate of 14.75% between 1991 and 2001. This is nearly double the figure for urban India. Given the agrarian crisis that has lasted for decades, villagers believe that one of the most reliable ways of getting out of their rural confines is to seek an alternative in cities.
Small towns are also establishing educational institutes and technical schools and colleges. Obviously, there is a great desire among those who live there to better their lives. Moradabad has many such institutions and among them there is the Teerthankar Mahaveer University, the Moradabad Institute of Technology, Wilsonia Degree College, and English-medium schools such as Delhi Public School and St Jude. Hanamkonda in Andhra Pradesh has many colleges too, as well as institutes that specialise in pharmacy, technology, and business. In Kazipet, there is a Mary Convent School as well as a National Institute of Technology. Kuppam, another small Andhra town, is a kind of educational hub with engineering and medical colleges.
The above are only examples; almost every small town has an English-medium school as well as a technology and management institute of some kind. This is significant as it demonstrates a strong desire for upward mobility among small-town residents. The question still remains—is there a demand for skilled labour yet? Second, how good is the quality of these educational institutions?
There are two trends that should be placed next to each other—the increase in the literacy level of migrants and, at the same time, the overwhelming numbers of unskilled labourers that come in large numbers to cities in search of jobs. Shaw found both these tendencies in the making of Navi Mumbai. What was most striking in her presentation is the sheer number of unskilled labourers who were flooding into the city, increasing the density and number of unauthorised settlements (Shaw 2004: 122).
Interestingly, all-India figures show that a larger percentage (nearly 50%) of rural graduates migrate to small and medium-sized towns, but the total migration of this category to all urban centres is lower, at 44% (Kundu and Mohanan 2009). That the rate of literacy is increasing faster in rural India than it is in urban India indicates how serious villagers are about getting educated and leaving villages for urban jobs.
Once the ambition arises to leave the village to seek a better life, its natural cohort is the drive towards education. This explains why so many children are today going to private schools. When the family is small, parents can think of sending their children to more expensive private schools. Consequently, their dependence on government schools declines. When a poor family sends its children to private schools, it is a big strain on its finances. But private education in India has yet to reveal its hand and demonstrate its efficacy in employment and industry. The promise is there and a lot of hopes ride on it. So far the results have not been very encouraging, as even the organised sector is employing more informal labour than what it did 10 years ago. Yet, one might make allowances for all that and say it is still early days and the good times are round the corner.
New Caste Relations
Inter-caste relations too were bound to be affected by the changes in the rural economy. As big landlords are largely creatures of the past, their sway over village people has diminished almost entirely. The village oligarchs of old who ruled and terrorised the poor folk are not to be seen. Instead, we find a mass of small cultivators of nearly every caste, including the Scheduled Castes (SCs). As most agricultural holdings are now really family farms, there is hardly any scope to act as village patrons, or as despots.
That being the case, the hierarchy that dominated caste interactions had to undergo a major modification. The most important being that no caste today can actually guarantee a vote bank, nor compel other castes to do its bidding. While this was possible in the past, it is not so today. One can get a clear indication of this from that the once subjugated castes are no longer afraid of loudly expressing their heritage and identities. Doing this would have been dangerous business a few decades ago, for it would have brought physical humiliation by rural oligarchs, and a denial of favours and jobs. That the earlier poorer castes are willing and able to express pride in their heritage shows how far we have come from traditional conceptions of hierarchy.
Not only did Brahmins get undermined in villages—that was easy—but also the traditional Kshatriya communities that dominated rural India. Now, every peasant and many artisan castes claim Kshatriya status and get away with it. Naturally, this has had the greatest effect at the political level, even as caste considerations continue to stay uppermost when people think of marriages and rites of passage. In this matter again, the rural Indian is thinking and acting much as an urban person would. This once again justifies the term “rurbanite,” and we now explain at some length why such a case should be considered.
Thinking beyond Caste
There are several reasons why a rurbanite is usually forced to think beyond just caste. The principal reason why such a person can act this way is because the weight of rural oligarchy is off. It is now possible for a villager to think politically like an urban person would and act on his or her own judgment. Just as in the case of the fragmentation of landholding, demography plays an important role, albeit from a different perspective.
Except for Maharashtra, where Marathas, of one kind or another, constitute about 33% of the population, nowhere else in the country does any one caste dominate any constituency. Many journalists, academics, and other assorted experts go by popular impressions and believe that Jats, or Gujjars, or whatever, dominate certain regions of India. They then link this preconceived notion to electoral outcomes, which is why they are, more often than not, proved wrong when the votes are counted.
West UP, for example, is hastily assumed to be a Jat stronghold, but this caste only comprises between 8% and 10% of the population. Likewise, while the Yadavs are said to dominate in the rest of UP, their numbers barely cross 12% to 15% in most parliamentary constituencies. In Bihar’s Madhepura region, which is supposed to be an impregnable Yadav bastion, only 23% to 25% of the people there are from this caste. Even so, the refrain that caste numbers determine elections keeps surfacing. This is probably because it is easy to comment, write, and appear knowledgeable if an exotic explanatory variable is used. Castes as vote banks may have held at a time when some castes ruled over others as the nature of landholdings were tilted seriously in their favour. All of these are things of the past and to talk of vote banks today belies a certain alienation from reality.
Under the existing demographic conditions, where no caste has a clear numerical advantage, most voters are forced to look at candidates outside their castes. The big reason for this is that nobody wants to waste a vote. In any constituency there are usually two viable candidates, and about five to six castes of equal population strength. Even die-hard casteists would find it difficult to vote for a fellow caste politician because that contender may not be a likely winner. Such people are often forced to opt for somebody who does not belong to their caste so that their vote does not go in vain. This is the logic of demographic numbers, and it has little to do with caste sentiments.
To complete this story, one must also add that political leaders are the ones who think along caste lines most of the time. This is especially true when distributing election tickets, appointing their election agents, and firming up their goon squads. These are the people who will do all the dirty work for their leaders—the walling, postering, and bullying. It is this tie between caste and political leaders that gets represented most often by journalists and sundry academics because they spend most of their time with the supposed newsmakers of the day. Naturally, they are quick to conclude that voting takes place on caste lines, for this is how leaders operate. If they pay attention to the empirical fact of caste numbers in electoral constituencies, they may not come up with such an easy correlation.
From a distance, especially from an urban perch, or from the courtyard of a political bigwig, all SCs and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) tend to look and think alike, as if an organic bond compels them in that direction. This myth needs to be exposed. During the Marathwada riots in 1979, when the Mahars were the object of Maratha wrath but not other SCs, many Mang and leather workers chalked their caste names on their huts to escape Maratha raids.
Mayawati is, by popular consent, a leader of the Jatavs, but there are huge tracts of UP such as Kanpur, Lucknow, Allahabad, Gonda, Rae Bareilly, Pratapgarh, and Sonbhadra where SCs, other than Jatavs, are numerically stronger. So it is not as if all SCs happily jostle together when they set out from their homes to the polling booth. Only this can explain why in 2002 the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) did not win a single seat in Sonbhadra district of UP, one of the districts where Jatavs are fewer in number. But then again, Mayawati won every seat there in 2007, only to lose half of them in 2012. Therefore, even at the level of SCs in UP, there is no clear caste correlation (Gupta 2007: 3388–96).
The other factor that creates an optical illusion, leading to the conclusion that the relation between caste and politics is unproblematic, is social capital. In West UP, the Jats, and in East UP, the Yadavs, had for long dominated in terms of being the most literate, best connected, and politically most active. This is why other castes lined up in front of their doors for favours, even for something as minor as writing a petition to a government department. This naturally magnified the presence of Jats and Yadavs, giving the impression that they were everywhere, but that was some time ago. Now most peasant castes (the so-called OBCs) are getting connected on their own to the outside world, in more ways than one. Consequently, other OBCs now have their own virtuosos, their own literati, and their own connections. They no longer need a Jat or Yadav to forward their demands and push for their claims. So, if one were to visit UP and Bihar today, it is not difficult to spot tensions between OBCs up and down what was once a clear hierarchy of power and privilege. They are no longer the leading elite of the peasant communities, which is why the caste calculus falters even more when we use it to understand elections (Gupta 2000: 148–76).
What holds for the OBCs applies to the SCs as well. Over a period of time, just as in the case of the peasant castes, individual SCs have generated their own social capital and produced their own clutch of literati, schoolteachers, police inspectors, businessmen, and so on. They do not need the Mahars or the Jatavs to help them through as they did earlier.
On account of this elite rivalry, or the competition between social capital at different levels, no caste can be said to represent a broad swath of jatis (social groups) in an area as big as a parliamentary constituency. This has further loosened the stranglehold of ritual hierarchy in villages, allowing even ordinary humble folk to aspire to “rurbanite” status. This is clearly a transitory stage, as even the term suggests. Even so, by looking at transformations in India through this optic, our resistance to accepting important social changes in our country is lowered. At the same time, certain myths, misconceptions, and blind intellectual positions, whose base has long since drifted away, come under the scanner.
The “rurbanite” will yet teach the urbanite a lesson or two in social change.

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