Brightening the future with the sun and wind

Renewables can play a greater role in a sustainable energy future, but proper accounting and specialised effort to understand their grid implications and scalability are necessary

The Renewable Energy (RE) Global Investor’s Meet inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on February 15 invited participation in funding India’s RE growth ambitions, which include almost 1,00,000 MW of growth in solar power in just seven years (about 40 per cent of today’s total installed capacity) and some 50,000 MW of wind power. This is bold and ambitious to say the least. The event was a success, finding investment commitments for some 2, 60,000 MW of RE!

But a serious question facing Indians is whether at a time when most people are struggling to keep the lights on at home, because of the shortage of power, do citizens really care about carbon emissions and climate change, which have become the primary rationale for pushing green energy? Also if Indians are as notoriously price-sensitive as pundits claim, how much of a premium will they be willing to pay for RE?

Let’s not beat around the bush — RE, attractive as it might sound and improving in price performance every year, does require support. Support isn’t inappropriate, especially given the benefits of RE, but there are also externalities of another kind including implications for the rest of the grid. This needs deeper analysis.

In the West, utilities are already worrying about the Utility Death Spiral, where RE and storage and smart grids mean some consumers reduce, if not cut off, their utility purchases. This raises costs for the rest of the grid, which must still keep the system in balance and stable, and also serve the least profitable consumers. This prompts others to exit the system, and so on. While India isn’t quite there yet, we must first understand that an end consumer opting for RE and finding it worthwhile is based on his/her comparing retail tariff with generation costs, which aren’t comparable. First, distribution has its own costs, even after accounting for savings in distribution losses. Second, retail tariffs for so-called paying customers (especially commercial and industrial) are artificially high, since they cross-subsidise other users.

Contextualising RE

Renewables in India are different from renewables deployed in the U.S. and Europe, and understanding the differences is the key to viable policies. The triad of “usual” challenges of renewables remains in India, such as: intermittency/variability; location-specific potential (concentrated in areas sometimes away from consumers or the grid); and higher costs. However, there are specific differences and needs that demand deeper analysis for the long-term viability of renewable energy.

In India, our peak demand is mostly in the evening, and the sun surely isn’t very bright at 7 p.m. Storage technologies are niche and expensive today, so solar power helps with energy (kilowatt-hour) needs, but not with our capacity needs. Wind is not much better, given its seasonality.

“Renewables in India are different from renewables deployed in the U.S. and Europe, and understanding the differences is the key to viable policies”

One of the typical calculations that power systems operators do is estimate how much RE the grid can handle. Typical figures from elsewhere are in the range of 20-30 per cent, with more requiring significant investments in transmission or peaker plants. India is different because its grid is very weak and unstable, and instead of having a reasonable reserve margin (which is typically 15-20 per cent in the West), there is a shortfall in the grid, officially in the range of 5 per cent or so, but actually much higher. The grid is kept afloat through massive “load-shedding” (feeder-level cut outs of supply).

There are other technical reasons why the Indian grid is weak, including lack of ancillary services (systems designed to keep the grid stable, instead of just pricing kilowatt-hours), and even a lack of time-of-day pricing for bulk procurement of power. There are few peaker plants (which would operate only some 5-10 per cent of hours in a year), since there isn’t sufficient incentive for these. Without incentives for plants that can ramp up quickly but may not get used much, how will the grid handle 20 per cent renewables?

Even worse, the types of plants capable of fast ramping are limited in near-term growth in India — hydropower (due to land and social/environmental challenges) and natural gas (due to supply constraints). Hydropower has an additional constraint when considering peaking or storage — its additional duty for water management (irrigation) limits when water can be stored versus released. Also, natural gas has overwhelmingly been built for baseload needs (with combined cycle plants), which cannot meet peaking requirements.

Making RE sustainable

Renewables can and should play a greater role in our sustainable energy future, but we need proper accounting and specialised effort to understand their grid implications and scalability. As part of a recent book on Making Renewable Power Sustainable in India, launched by Piyush Goyal, Minister for Power, Renewables, and Coal, we at Brookings India identified a number of policy imperatives for making RE sustainable. While the technical details need working out, especially in terms of regulations, support and incentive mechanisms, grid management, etc., we also identified a need to ramp up skills and innovation. All solar cells are imported today — this shouldn’t remain so. The first step towards making RE sustainable is a nuanced examination of the issues and trade-offs, and dialogue among all the stakeholders, especially state utilities, which ultimately deliver electricity to consumers.

Renewables have a bright future, and must play a leading role in India’s power security and growth. They aren’t a silver bullet, but a vital tool in the broader spectrum of India’s energy future. Most importantly, renewables should not be viewed in isolation, as a drop-in supply-side solution, but rather as part of a transition if not transformation of the grid, which includes variable and dynamic pricing, distributed generation, storage technologies and smart grids. If RE is referred to as the energy source of the future, that future is well-nigh.

Seven more genes tied to brain disability affecting men

Defective genes on the X chromosome cause the disability, which is passed on in a recessive manner

Scientists have identified seven more genes that can cause X-linked intellectual disability, which predominantly affects men.

Defective genes on the X chromosome cause the disability. As men have only one X chromosome, the disability is passed on in a recessive manner. Women are affected only if both their X chromosomes carry the defective genes. Women with one healthy and one mutated X chromosome are usually free of the disability, but have a 50 per cent chance of passing the mutated chromosome on to their offspring.

Because of the highly variable symptoms of the disability, the search for its genetic cause was tedious until a few years ago. An international research team headed by Vera Kalscheuer from the Max Planck Institute for Molecular Genetics, Berlin, analysed 405 families with cases of the disability.

Discovery

“In addition to the known disease-related genes, we have discovered seven novel genes as the cause of X-linked intellectual disability and analysed what signalling pathways in the cells each protein is involved in,” Ms. Kalscheuer said.

Researchers said the symptoms and severity of the disorder depended on the responsible gene and the nature of the mutation. For example, if the mutation was located in a region important for brain development and protein function, the severity will be high.

With the help of systematic re-sequencing of all the X-linked genes, the genetic defect could be identified in around 60 per cent of the families with the disability.

For some years now, scientists have been aided in their research of genetic diseases by high-throughput sequencing, a technology which allows sequencing of many DNA segments simultaneously and helps identify genetic defects more easily. Using this method, the scientists investigated all DNA regions of the X chromosome containing protein-relevant information.

A flawed approach to food security

With India continuing to be plagued by malnutrition, it is foolhardy to use the changed food production situation in the domestic economy as a reason for dismantling the FCI

Within months of assuming office, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government set up a High Level Committee (HLC) in August 2014 to restructure, reorient and reform the Food Corporation of India (FCI). The eight-member HLC was chaired by senior BJP leader, Shanta Kumar, and included prominent economist Ashok Gulati. On January 22, 2015, the HLC submitted its report to the government and made its recommendations public.

In the short run, the committee recommends that the National Food Security Act (NFSA) 2013 be curtailed. In particular, the NFSA entails providing subsidised food to about 67 per cent of the population, and the committee recommends that the coverage be brought down to 40 per cent. In the medium run, the committee recommends that the current public distribution system (PDS) be replaced by a cash transfer system. This will mean that the state will no longer have to be responsible for distributing food to vulnerable sections of the population. Hence, the state will no longer need to procure food from farmers, and store it. Since the current system of procurement, storage and transportation is primarily managed by the FCI, the medium term vision of the HLC implies that the FCI can, in due course, be folded up.

The overall thrust of the HLC’s recommendations, if implemented, would whittle down the operation of the FCI in the short run and completely dismantle it in the medium run. The HLC has advanced two broad set of arguments as justifications for its recommendations. Critical scrutiny shows that both are fallacious.

Changed situation

The first set of arguments of the HLC relates to changes in the situation in the country as regards food production and consumption since the crisis period of the mid-1960s. Today, India produces more food grains than it consumes, even exporting substantial amounts to the world market. It has a large public stockholding of food grains and is comfortably placed as regards foreign exchange reserves. All this is in stark contrast to the situation in the mid-1960s. Moreover, consumption patterns of households have displayed a shift away from cereals. This changed situation, in the opinion of the HLC, calls for a change in the role of the FCI.

“Excessive stocks of food grains on the one hand, and prevalence of widespread hunger and malnutrition on the other, call for an expansion of the PDS operations”

The HLC, however, has ignored the fact that India continues to be plagued by large scale hunger and malnutrition. Data from the National Sample Survey (NSS) shows that in 2009-10 the vast majority of the population was consuming less than the 2010 Indian Council of Medical Research calorie norms. If we look at trends over time, the same data also shows that average calorie and protein intake have declined over the past few decades. Evidence on more direct measures of under-nutrition – like the proportion of underweight and stunted children – are equally grim.

Fulfilling its objectives

Given these well known facts and trends on hunger and malnutrition, it seems foolhardy to use the fact of a changed production situation in the domestic economy to argue for the dismantling the FCI. A more sensible route would be to use increased domestic production to directly address the problems of hunger and malnutrition. In this strategy, the FCI is bound to play a more rather than less important role.

The second set of arguments given by the HLC as justification relate to the claim that the FCI has not been fulfilling its three key objectives in recent years: providing price support to farmers, delivering food through the PDS, and reducing volatility of food prices (and addressing food security) through public stockholding. According to the HLC, failure to meet the objective of providing price support is shown by the fact that in 2012-13 only six per cent of agricultural households sold any food grains to procurement agencies. Failure on the PDS front is attested by massive leakages from the system. Food grains rotting in FCI warehouses highlight the failure of the system of public stockholding.

The fact that only six per cent of agricultural households sold paddy or rice to any procurement agency in 2012-13 is really striking. The Situation Assessment Survey of Agricultural Households conducted by the National Sample Survey Organisation during the 70th Round (2013) of the NSS – the data source that allowed the HLC to compute the figure of six per cent – shows why. The NSS data reveals that the vast majority of agricultural households were not aware of the existence of minimum support price (MSP), and an even larger proportion were not aware of procurement agencies (about 80 per cent for paddy and 70 per cent for wheat). Of the households that were aware of MSP but did not sell to procurement agencies, a large proportion did so for lack of procurement infrastructure at the local level. Moreover, if we go back 10 years and look at data from the previous (and first) Situation Assessment Survey of Farmers in 2003, we see a large variation across States in awareness of MSP, with Haryana, Kerala, Punjab and Tamil Nadu showing high awareness.

One can see that the reason for low use of procurement is lack of information. The other reason is lack of enabling infrastructure at the local level. States which have managed to put such infrastructure in place and disseminate information about procurement saw greater participation. Thus, the HLC’s conclusion that the procurement system is not working is misleading.

The second claim of the HLC is that the PDS is a failure because of massive leakage. But, what do we know about the extent of leakage, its spatial and temporal patterns?

The existing literature on PDS in India has highlighted three important patterns. First, there is a secular decline in leakage over the past decade. Second, there is a large variation in the extent of leakage across states with some States like Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu consistently reporting low leakage. Third, and more interestingly, many States like Bihar, Assam, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Uttarakhand, have improved considerably over time with respect to leakage from the PDS. The conclusion that would be consistent with the findings of this literature is not that the system needs to be dismantled but that the strategies adopted by successful states are replicated in the other States.

The third claim of the HLC is that the FCI has ended up with excess stocks of food grains. Since storage of food grains is costly, it represents a waste of resources that could have been used elsewhere and in more productive ways. We agree with this and would go further to argue that excessive stocks of food grains on the one hand, and prevalence of widespread hunger and malnutrition on the other immediately call for an expansion of the PDS operations.

To sum up, neither the changed situation with respect to domestic food production nor the functioning of the FCI with respect to meeting its key objectives lends credence to the argument that the FCI, and with it the whole food management system, needs to be curtailed.

The menace of plastic waste

If there is one type of municipal solid waste that has become ubiquitous in India and most developing countries, and largely seen along the shores and waterways of many developed countries, it is plastic waste. Much of it is not recycled, and ends up in landfills or as litter on land, in waterways and the ocean. For the first time, researchers have estimated the amount of plastic that makes its way into the oceans. While the estimate of eight million tonnes of plastic being dumped into the oceans by 192 coastal countries in 2010 may appear staggeringly high, in reality the quantity would be many times more. Besides estimating the total quantity, a paper published recently in the journal Science has identified the top 20 countries that have dumped the most plastic waste into the oceans. At twelfth position, India is one of the worst performers. It has dumped up to 0.24 million tonnes of plastic into the ocean every year; the amount of mismanaged plastic waste per year is 0.6 million tonnes. In the case of China, the No. 1 polluter, the coastal population sends up to 3.53 million tonnes of plastic waste into the oceans each year. Besides the 11 Asian and South East Asian countries, the U.S. figures in the list.

A study published in December 2014 estimated the quantity of plastic floating in the ocean at nearly 270,000 tonnes. This is but a fraction of the total that finds its way into the oceans. Other studies suggest that the surface of the water is not its final resting place. Alarmingly, an unknown quantity of degraded plastic in the form of particles enters the food chain. Besides affecting marine life, plastic that gets into the food chain has serious health implications for humans. With the latest study estimating that the annual input into the oceans is set to double by 2025, there is an urgent need to tackle the problem. A two-pronged approach has to be adopted by the worst polluters to reduce per capita plastic waste generation and cut the amount of mismanaged waste by employing better waste management practices. Recycling is the best available way to tackle the waste, though it is not the ideal solution. India, which hardly recycles plastic waste, has its task cut out. It dumps a huge quantity into the ocean although it generates a relatively small amount of this waste per person — 3 per cent of 0.34 kg per person a day of all solid waste generated. The huge population offsets the advantage of low plastic consumption in the country. Cutting down on the use of plastic should also begin in earnest, and the first item that has to be targeted is the single-use plastic bag. The Union government recently refused to ban the manufacture of single-use plastic bags; the least it could do to reduce consumption is to make such bags expensive, employing the same rationale that has been applied for tobacco products that are taxed heavily to reduce consumption.

A social role for NITI Aayog

The NITI Aayog could throw light on long-term issues, with solutions that are not just economic or technological but also social and political — of strengthening democracy, building institutions and regaining policy space

NITI Aayog has had its first meeting with the economic experts. This was crucial since the government is trying to revive economic growth. The economy has experienced slow growth in spite of the revised national income data that has indicated faster growth. Industry, exports and so on, have shown tepid growth in recent years. The National Democratic Alliance’s electoral promise of an economic turnaround seems elusive in spite of its accelerating “reforms” by liberalising foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and land acquisition policies to signal its pro-corporate sector and big business inclinations.

Contradictory views

The budget is first a macroeconomic exercise and then a micro one catering to sectors of the economy. Two contradictory macroeconomic views are emerging from the government and its policy advisers. This is similar to the policy dilemma that the United Progressive Alliance faced earlier. The first view is to have a larger fiscal deficit so as to boost demand. The other view is to cut the fiscal deficit to keep the credit rating agencies (proxy for financial interests) happy so as to prevent a downgrade of the economy.

The Finance Minister favours the latter view and argues that a fiscal deficit imposes a burden on future generations who will have to repay the debt. This conservative view assumes that resources are constrained, so if the government spends more, the private sector has less to spend. But that cannot be true when the economy has spare capacity and can produce more. Increased government expenditures then boost the economy and lead to more investments via the accelerator. If increased spending is financed by increased direct taxation, that is even better. This is feasible in India since direct taxes are around 7 per cent of GDP which is low when compared to most other countries. But a government trying to signal its pro-business inclination would not wish to raise direct taxes like income, corporation and wealth taxes.

“For India, which remains very poor and very unequal, policies based on the interest of finance capital and a narrow section of society can only spell disaster.”

Actually, tax rates need not be raised but only the concessions given in taxes (these are called tax expenditures and amount to 4.5 per cent of GDP) need to be curtailed to get more resources. But this may also be seen as anti-business. The other possibility is to tap the black economy (more than 50 per cent of GDP, according to me.) This requires political will which is not yet visible. The business community, the largest generator of black incomes, would see this also as anti business — it has been opposing introduction of general anti avoidance rules (GAAR). Even if the economy grows faster due to the reduction of the size of the black economy and businessmen gain, they fear it since a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

The NITI Aayog meeting does not seem to have considered these deeper issues. Advice was sought from former bureaucrats, journalists, industry lobbyists and academics. Media reports suggest a lack of coherence in the discussion or in the advice given. Some of the invitees had been present in the Finance Ministry pre-budget meeting last month. So, what was the point of the meeting now when it did not lead to clarity on long-term issues? Further, the time for incorporation of policies in the budget is over since most of it would have been formulated by now. It may have been better to circulate for comments a discussion paper on the Indian economy’s slowdown and its global interlinkages.

Dilemma with global echoes

India’s current economic dilemma has global roots. The eurozone, Japan and Russia are in trouble, the Chinese economy has slowed down and the U.S. economy is the only big one that has improved. In such a scenario, increasing exports in a big way would be difficult. Declining commodity prices (like that of petroleum goods) signal a weakening global economy. Uncertainty is deepened by the arc of instability due to failing states, from Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria to East Africa. The war in Ukraine and the rise of IS are compounding the problem.

Greece threatens the economic stability of the eurozone. The new government there is defying the dictates from the world of finance and has promised to end the austerity regime hoisted on the people of Greece. The Greek Prime Minister is telling the European powers that the economic rules of integration of the weaker economies of Europe into the eurozone need change. He is arguing that a substantial portion of the debt resulting from the earlier wrong policies needs to be written off. The other troubled economies of Europe — Portugal, Spain and Italy — are under increasing political pressure to follow Greece’s example.

U.S. President Barack Obama has proposed increasing taxation of the rich while giving more to the middle classes to reverse the growing inequity there. This move not only has a political strategy underlying it but also economic reasons that favour it. Given the Republican domination in the legislature and their conservative inclinations, it is unlikely that this proposal would be accepted any time soon. But, other countries would be forced to think about the idea, especially in the context of the developments in Greece.

In 2011, Mr. Warren Buffett gave a call to tax the rich more not only for the sake of equity but also to tackle the global economic crisis. This call was picked up in Europe with 16 of the wealthiest French urging their government to tax them more. Fifty wealthy Germans backed this petition. In Italy, the chief of Ferrari also lent support.

Inequity has grown in most countries since the mid-1970s following the domination of global financial capital over policies — spearheaded by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). These policies have not only marginalised other sectors of the economy but also promoted bubble economies that are prone to periodic collapse as it happened beginning 2007 and from which the world economy has yet to fully recover.

These policies promoted shadow banking and all manner of opaque financial instruments that created economic instability. A casino economy emerged with speculation leading to a fictitious boost in paper wealth, promoting a false sense of well-being among individuals and increased consumption by them. As inequality increased dramatically, and there was the marginalisation of the vast majority, there followed the “Occupy Wall Street movement”, termed as the “99% v the 1%” and which also popularised the term, “Main street versus Wall street”.

For people policies

Events in Greece and Mr. Obama’s suggestion suggest that the time has come to end the domination of finance capital over the rest of society. Policy space has to be recaptured from the world of finance by the democratic forces so that policies favouring the people can be initiated.

The dilemma currently facing Indian policymakers reflects these global trends. India’s rightward drift started with the Emergency in 1975 when Sanjay Gandhi marginalised the left of Centre thinking in the Indira Gandhi government. The trend continued during the Janata regime and thereafter under the Indira Gandhi government which had to approach the IMF for adjustment in 1980. Rajiv Gandhi, under considerable influence of the liberalisers, pushed this tendency faster. With the New Economic Policies in 1991 and the emergence of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, there was a paradigm change, with the policies of finance capital becoming entrenched.

For India, which remains very poor and very unequal, policies based on the interest of finance capital and a narrow section of society can only spell disaster. These policies push markets and technology-based solutions which marginalise the individual. The underlying idea is that if making democracy work is difficult, substitute it with technology. Those lacking faith in democracy and social institutions are (in the name of the poor) pushing an autocratic agenda based on greater use of technology. The hard work of creating and nurturing institutions that can deliver to the people and strengthen democracy is sought to be circumvented. So, one of the key proposals today is to push Goods and Services Tax (GST) even if it does not suit the needs of the vast unorganised sectors of our economy and benefits the MNCs and big business. The hard work of making taxation simple and effective and shifting to direct taxes is hardly on the agenda. Creating a large number of jobs is secondary to cash transfers, bullet trains for the elite and smart cities for the upwardly mobile.

The flyovers of Delhi were built to ensure smooth traffic flow but now have speed bumps to slow down vehicles and which leads to jams. The technological solution failed because the institutional design of management of urban traffic is flawed and that is because policymakers did not go deeper into the problem in their urge to provide quick fix technological solutions. The NITI Aayog could throw light on such long-term issues (with solutions that are not just economic or technological but also social and political) of strengthening democracy, building institutions, regaining policy space and so on.

Stay at Arm’s Length from Persons Coughing or Sneezing, Avoid Gathering and Wash your Hands Frequently To Check H1N1 spread

Influenza – A (H1N1) (earlier know as swine flu) is a new influenza virus causing illness in people. First detected in Mexico in April, 2009, it has spread to many countries in the World.

            Swine flu is basically a misnomer. This was originally referred to as “swine flu” because laboratory testing showed that many of the genes in this new virus were very similar to those found in pigs in North America. Further on, it has been found that this new virus has gene segments from the swine, avian and human flu virus genes. The scientists calls this a ‘quadruple reassortant” virus and hence this new (novel) virus is christened “influenza-A (H1N1) virus.”

Swine Flu / Pig Flu

            Is an infection caused by any one of several types of swine influenza viruses that is endemic in pigs. As of 2009, the known strains include influenza C and the subtypes of influenza A known as H1N1, H1N2, H2N1, H3N1, H3N2, andH2N3.Swine influenza virus is common throughout pig populations worldwide. Transmission of the virus from pigs to humans is not common and does not always lead to human flu, often resulting only in the production of antibodies in the blood. If transmission does cause human flu, it is called zoonotic swine flu. People with regular exposure to pigs are at increased risk of swine flu infection.

History

            Swine influenza was first thought to be a disease related to human flu during the 1918 flu pandemic, when pigs became ill at the same time as humans. For the following 60 years, swine influenza strains were almost exclusively H1N1. Then, between 1997 and 2002, new strains of three different subtypes and five different genotypes emerged. The H1N1 form of swine flu is one of the descendants of the strain that caused the 1918 flu pandemic. After persisting in pigs, the descendants of the 1918 virus have also circulated in humans through the 20th century, contributing to the normal seasonal epidemics of influenza. However, direct transmission from pigs to humans is rare.

Transmission

            Influenza is quite common in pigs; the main route of transmission is through direct contact between infected and uninfected animals. These close contacts are particularly common during animal transport, Intensive farming. Transmission may also occur through wild animals, such as wild boar.

            People who work with poultry and swine, especially those with intense exposures, are at increased risk of zoonotic infection with influenza virus endemic in these animals, and constitute a population of human hosts in which zoonosis and reassortment can co-occur. Other professions at particular risk of infection are veterinarians and meat processing workers, although the risk of infection for both of these groups is lower than that of farm worker.

Signs and symptoms

            In pigs, influenza infection produces fever, lethargy, sneezing, coughing, difficulty breathing and decreased appetite Although mortality is usually low (around 1–4%), the virus can produce weight loss and poor growth, causing economic loss to farmers.

            Direct transmission of a swine flu virus from pigs to humans is occasionally possible (zoonotic swine flu). In humans the symptoms of "swine flu" H1N1 virus are similar to those of influenza and of influenza-like illness in general. Symptoms include fever, cough, sore throat, body aches, headache, chills and fatigue. Because these symptoms are not specific to swine flu, a differential diagnosis of probable swine flu requires not only symptoms, but also a high likelihood of swine flu due to the person's recent history. A diagnosis of confirmed swine flu requires laboratory testing of a respiratory sample (a simple nose and throat swab).

            The most common cause of death is respiratory failure. Other causes of death are pneumonia (leading to sepsis), high fever (leading to neurological problems), dehydration (from excessive vomiting and diarrhea), electrolyte imbalance and kidney failure. Fatalities are more likely in young children and the elderly.

Diagnosis

            The CDC recommends real time PCR as the method of choice for diagnosing H1N1. The oral or nasal fluid collection and RNA virus preserving filter paper card is commercially available. This method allows a specific diagnosis of novel influenza (H1N1) as opposed to seasonal influenza

Spread of infection

            Prevention of swine influenza has three components: prevention in swine, prevention of transmission to humans, and prevention of its spread among humans.

            Methods of preventing the spread of influenza among swine include facility management, herd management, and vaccination. Facility management includes using disinfectants and ambient temperature to control viruses in the environment. They are unlikely to survive outside living cells for more than two weeks, except in cold (but above freezing) conditions, and are readily inactivated by disinfectants. The virus survives in healthy carrier pigs for up to three months, and can be recovered from them between outbreaks.

In humans

• Prevention of pig-to-human transmission

            The transmission from swine to humans is believed to occur mainly in swine farms, where farmers are in close contact with live pigs. Although strains of swine influenza are usually not able to infect humans, this may occasionally happen, so farmers and veterinarians are encouraged to use face masks when dealing with infected animals. The use of vaccines on swine to prevent their infection is a major method of limiting swine-to-human transmission.

• Prevention of human-to-human transmission

            Influenza spreads between humans when infected people cough or sneeze, then other people breathe in the virus or touch something with the virus on it and then touch their own face, eyes, nose or mouth. Swine flu cannot be spread by pork products,since the virus is not transmitted through food. The swine flu in humans is most contagious during the first five days of the illness, although some people, most commonly children, can remain contagious for up to ten days.

• Prevention

            How to keep away from getting the flu? First and most important is follow simple steps as cough etiquettes (covering mouth & nose with handkerchief or tissue paper while coughing), stay at least an arm’s length from persons coughing or sneezing, avoid gathering and wash your hands frequently. Try to stay in good general health. Get plenty of sleep, be physically active, manage your stress, drink plenty of fluids and eat nutritious food. Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze; throw the tissue in the trash after you use it. Wash hands often with soap and water, especially after cough or sneeze; avoid touching eyes, nose or mouth and try to avoid close contact with people having respiratory illness.

If one gets sick with influenza, one must stay at home, away from work or school and limit contact with others to keep from infecting them.

Treatment

            If one is having any respiratory distress, one should report to a nearby hospital. If a person becomes sick with swine flu, antiviral drugs can make the illness milder and make the patient feel better faster. They may also prevent serious flu complications. For treatment, antiviral drugs work best if started soon after getting sick (within two days of symptoms). Beside antiviral, supportive care at home or in a hospital focuses on controlling fevers, relieving pain and maintaining fluid balance, as well as identifying and treating any secondary infections or other medical problems. Use of oseltamivir (Tamiflu) or zanamivir (Relenza) for the treatment and/or prevention of infection with swine influenza viruses is recommended. However, the majority of people infected with the virus make a full recovery without requiring medical attention or antiviral drugs.

Present Outbreak in India

            It is noted that that during the period 1 Jan 2015-10 February 2015, the total number of H1N1 cases is 5157 and number of deaths is 407. Largely the cases are from Delhi, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Telangana whereas largely the deaths due to H1N1 are in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Telangana. Now even cases have been reported from West Bengal. The status of H1N1 influenza being monitored daily by the union M/O Health & Family Welfare. 

            Various health institutions treating H1N1 cases are being advised for vaccination against H1N1 influenza for the concerned health workers in the hospitals in contact with H1N1 patients. This will be in addition to the proper personal protective measures being followed at the hospitals. Guidelines are being drafted for vaccination of healthcare workers and these will be shared with the states for dissemination to all health institutions.

            The Government of India has already placed an order for enhancing stock of diagnostic kits to be supplied to the lab network under Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP) being used for testing H1N1 influenza. To enhance the level of preparedness, additional 60,000 Oseltamivir medicines and 10,000 N-95 masks are being procured. In addition, NCDC has floated a tender for additional 10,000 diagnostic kits. In case of need, labs under ICMR have been identified across the country to provide additional testing facilities. In order to prevent panic and inconvenience to people, and to encourage only those cases requiring H1N1 testing are actually taken up for testing, it was decided that the communication strategy should create awareness among the general public regarding this aspect. 

Homeopathy for Swine Flu

           

            At the instance of the Department of AYUSH, the Central Council for Research in Homoeopathy (CCRH) had convened a meeting of a Group of Experts in Homoeopathy, who has recommended that the homoeopathic medicine Arsenicum album could be taken as prophylactic medicine against flu like illnesses. It has recommended Arsenicum album 30, one dose (4pills of size 30 by adults and 2 pills by children) daily, on empty stomach, for 3 days. The dose should be repeated after one month by following the same schedule in case flu like conditions prevails in the area.

India Made Vaccine

      The testing of the Pandemic influenza H1N1 vaccines was undertaken by the Central Drug Laboratory, Kasuali (National Control Laboratory) and declared to be of Standard quality.  The H1N1 vaccine (Brand Name: VaxiFlu S) is manufactured by M/s Zydus Cadila Health Care Limited; live attenuated H1N1 vaccine (Brand Name: Nasovac) manufactured by M/s Serum Institute of India Limited, Pune; inactivated H1N1 vaccine is also manufactured by M/s Serum Institute of India. However, Vaccination is not a recommended intervention for Swine flu infected patients.

IAS & Decentralisation

 By ArunabhaBagchi: 

When I left India in the late Sixties, the IAS was the most coveted career option for the brightest middle class students in Calcutta. None of us knew how to get “boxwallah” jobs.  We all knew that if IFS or IAS did not work out, we might be lucky to be selected for the IPS or some other less glamorous senior central service. It was common knowledge that the UPSC examination was nerve-wrecking, followed by an even more frightening interview. It was, therefore, a big relief when the Engineering School at UCLA offered me a research position to do Ph.D. there. Once in Los Angeles, I thought that there must be an even more prestigious “steel frame” ~ an administrative Service in the United States running the mightiest and richest country on the globe. When I enquired about this from my American friends, they all admitted their ignorance, with a few adding that there might be something similar in the State Department. I forgot all this, as I had neither knowledge, nor interest, in public administration.

It all came back to me as I read in the newspapers that our PM planned to celebrate 31 October, the birth anniversary of SardarVallabbhai Patel, as National Unity Day throughout India. It is, of course, universally acknowledged that it was Sardar Patel who coerced princely states to merge with India, and even sent our armed forces to take over the Nizam’s fiefdom of Telangana. I then remembered that Sardar Patel was also instrumental in continuing the Indian Civil Service (ICS) in the new garb of the Indian Administrative Service after our Independence. The much-detested ICS was the overt face of colonial exploitation and of torture against our freedom-fighters. This proposal of Sardar Patel, therefore, was strongly challenged by many members of the Constituent Assembly. State Chief Ministers rightly construed this as a surreptitious means of controlling them from Delhi, instead of London, and argued that it was a gross violation of the basic tenets of federalism. Sardar Patel, however, prevailed in the end and the Indian Administrative Service was born. The decisive argument in his favour was the crucial role he envisioned for IAS officers in enhancing our national unity.

Although IAS officers are centrally selected, they are dispatched to the states to form the highest administrative cadre there. To achieve the goal of national unity, the cadres are deliberately mixed with one half selected from residents of the state and the other half from those outside the state. With 33 per cent IAS officers promoted from the State Civil Service members, “outsiders” actually dominate between the direct IAS recruits in each state. In reality, an overwhelming majority of new recruits prefer to be posted in their home states. Forcing them to be posted against their will to achieve national unity by just dangling the carrot of their office is weird indeed. How could the governance of a state be improved by bringing recalcitrant recruits from another state?

Another argument advanced in favour of this unusual practice was that it would reduce nepotism and local political pressure on the administration. If we extend this kind of reasoning one level higher, we should have continued to recruit a large part of our senior civil servants in Delhi from England. In fact, if an administrator does not have emotional connection or instinctive knowledge of a state, he would most likely go with the prevalent political wind there. It is also common knowledge that there is hardly any interest for the fresh recruits to join the cadre of states in the North-east or Jammu and Kashmir. These are the only challenging states in terms of national unity. If these young “idealistic” recruits shy away from this mission, it does not speak very highly in favour of maintaining a colonial system to further the cause of national unity.

Civil service in a country is broadly classified as a “career based” system, or a “position based” system. In the “career based” system, prospective candidates are picked up right from the university, or shortly thereafter, by means of a nationwide competitive examination and groomed for the career path leading to top civil service functions. India, France, Italy and Spain, among others, share this system. In the “position based” system, initial appointments of bright candidates are done through departments. At the level of senior civil service appointments recruitment is done by advertisement where potential candidates from all departments, and sometimes from outside the civil service, are allowed to apply. The United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium are some examples of countries in this category.

Both systems have their benefits and drawbacks. In the “career based” system, senior civil servants develop the   esprit de corps and have a total view of the whole administration. The disadvantage is the development of cliques and lack of specialisation in an increasingly knowledge-based environment. In the “position based” system, senior civil servants are drawn from a wider pool of candidates who might have grown in their jobs. The disadvantage is their lack of holistic picture of the administration because of limited mobility earlier. The administrative reform attempted by all OECD (Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development) countries during the last decade consisted largely in modifying their existing system by incorporating positive aspects of the other system.

In India we may be able to do much better. Barring the outlying regions, national unity has become an irrelevant issue in India today. On the other hand, our PM championed the cause of decentralisation in his election campaign. To achieve this, all IAS officers recruited for a state must know the state thoroughly and instinctively. This may be achieved easily by adding in the main examination conducted by the UPSC two state-specific papers, one on the principal language of the state and the other on general knowledge related to all aspects of the state. Based on the ranking, and leaving aside those opting for IFS, every state would recruit IAS officers it needs only from the list of candidates that chose state-specific papers of that particular state.

Many IAS officers want to move to ministries in Delhi later in their career because of abundant power and patronage there. Here is a quote from S.R. Maheshwari’s book  Public Administration in India ~ The Higher Civil Service ~ “It is only a small number of 300 officers who keep hovering around Delhi out of the total membership of 5000 and who act as gate-keepers preventing their other colleagues from getting central postings.” This resulted in Delhi becoming the worst businessman-politician-bureaucrat nexus in India generating the lion’s share of black money in our country. It also deprives our crucial central administration from the services of the most competent IAS officers available in the country. Switching over to the “position based” system for senior appointments in Delhi at the deputy secretary level or higher would solve both these problems at the same time. All suitable IAS officers would be eligible to apply for such positions, with the best candidate selected by a high-powered selection committee just as is done for hiring senior executives in big corporations.

Reforming the IAS is not easy. Attempts to make fundamental changes have turned out to be futile so far. Only Narendra Modi, with his commitment to decentralisation, is in a position to effect real changes in this archaic system.