The menace of plastic waste

If there is one type of municipal solid waste that has become ubiquitous in India and most developing countries, and largely seen along the shores and waterways of many developed countries, it is plastic waste. Much of it is not recycled, and ends up in landfills or as litter on land, in waterways and the ocean. For the first time, researchers have estimated the amount of plastic that makes its way into the oceans. While the estimate of eight million tonnes of plastic being dumped into the oceans by 192 coastal countries in 2010 may appear staggeringly high, in reality the quantity would be many times more. Besides estimating the total quantity, a paper published recently in the journal Science has identified the top 20 countries that have dumped the most plastic waste into the oceans. At twelfth position, India is one of the worst performers. It has dumped up to 0.24 million tonnes of plastic into the ocean every year; the amount of mismanaged plastic waste per year is 0.6 million tonnes. In the case of China, the No. 1 polluter, the coastal population sends up to 3.53 million tonnes of plastic waste into the oceans each year. Besides the 11 Asian and South East Asian countries, the U.S. figures in the list.

A study published in December 2014 estimated the quantity of plastic floating in the ocean at nearly 270,000 tonnes. This is but a fraction of the total that finds its way into the oceans. Other studies suggest that the surface of the water is not its final resting place. Alarmingly, an unknown quantity of degraded plastic in the form of particles enters the food chain. Besides affecting marine life, plastic that gets into the food chain has serious health implications for humans. With the latest study estimating that the annual input into the oceans is set to double by 2025, there is an urgent need to tackle the problem. A two-pronged approach has to be adopted by the worst polluters to reduce per capita plastic waste generation and cut the amount of mismanaged waste by employing better waste management practices. Recycling is the best available way to tackle the waste, though it is not the ideal solution. India, which hardly recycles plastic waste, has its task cut out. It dumps a huge quantity into the ocean although it generates a relatively small amount of this waste per person — 3 per cent of 0.34 kg per person a day of all solid waste generated. The huge population offsets the advantage of low plastic consumption in the country. Cutting down on the use of plastic should also begin in earnest, and the first item that has to be targeted is the single-use plastic bag. The Union government recently refused to ban the manufacture of single-use plastic bags; the least it could do to reduce consumption is to make such bags expensive, employing the same rationale that has been applied for tobacco products that are taxed heavily to reduce consumption.

A social role for NITI Aayog

The NITI Aayog could throw light on long-term issues, with solutions that are not just economic or technological but also social and political — of strengthening democracy, building institutions and regaining policy space

NITI Aayog has had its first meeting with the economic experts. This was crucial since the government is trying to revive economic growth. The economy has experienced slow growth in spite of the revised national income data that has indicated faster growth. Industry, exports and so on, have shown tepid growth in recent years. The National Democratic Alliance’s electoral promise of an economic turnaround seems elusive in spite of its accelerating “reforms” by liberalising foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and land acquisition policies to signal its pro-corporate sector and big business inclinations.

Contradictory views

The budget is first a macroeconomic exercise and then a micro one catering to sectors of the economy. Two contradictory macroeconomic views are emerging from the government and its policy advisers. This is similar to the policy dilemma that the United Progressive Alliance faced earlier. The first view is to have a larger fiscal deficit so as to boost demand. The other view is to cut the fiscal deficit to keep the credit rating agencies (proxy for financial interests) happy so as to prevent a downgrade of the economy.

The Finance Minister favours the latter view and argues that a fiscal deficit imposes a burden on future generations who will have to repay the debt. This conservative view assumes that resources are constrained, so if the government spends more, the private sector has less to spend. But that cannot be true when the economy has spare capacity and can produce more. Increased government expenditures then boost the economy and lead to more investments via the accelerator. If increased spending is financed by increased direct taxation, that is even better. This is feasible in India since direct taxes are around 7 per cent of GDP which is low when compared to most other countries. But a government trying to signal its pro-business inclination would not wish to raise direct taxes like income, corporation and wealth taxes.

“For India, which remains very poor and very unequal, policies based on the interest of finance capital and a narrow section of society can only spell disaster.”

Actually, tax rates need not be raised but only the concessions given in taxes (these are called tax expenditures and amount to 4.5 per cent of GDP) need to be curtailed to get more resources. But this may also be seen as anti-business. The other possibility is to tap the black economy (more than 50 per cent of GDP, according to me.) This requires political will which is not yet visible. The business community, the largest generator of black incomes, would see this also as anti business — it has been opposing introduction of general anti avoidance rules (GAAR). Even if the economy grows faster due to the reduction of the size of the black economy and businessmen gain, they fear it since a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

The NITI Aayog meeting does not seem to have considered these deeper issues. Advice was sought from former bureaucrats, journalists, industry lobbyists and academics. Media reports suggest a lack of coherence in the discussion or in the advice given. Some of the invitees had been present in the Finance Ministry pre-budget meeting last month. So, what was the point of the meeting now when it did not lead to clarity on long-term issues? Further, the time for incorporation of policies in the budget is over since most of it would have been formulated by now. It may have been better to circulate for comments a discussion paper on the Indian economy’s slowdown and its global interlinkages.

Dilemma with global echoes

India’s current economic dilemma has global roots. The eurozone, Japan and Russia are in trouble, the Chinese economy has slowed down and the U.S. economy is the only big one that has improved. In such a scenario, increasing exports in a big way would be difficult. Declining commodity prices (like that of petroleum goods) signal a weakening global economy. Uncertainty is deepened by the arc of instability due to failing states, from Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria to East Africa. The war in Ukraine and the rise of IS are compounding the problem.

Greece threatens the economic stability of the eurozone. The new government there is defying the dictates from the world of finance and has promised to end the austerity regime hoisted on the people of Greece. The Greek Prime Minister is telling the European powers that the economic rules of integration of the weaker economies of Europe into the eurozone need change. He is arguing that a substantial portion of the debt resulting from the earlier wrong policies needs to be written off. The other troubled economies of Europe — Portugal, Spain and Italy — are under increasing political pressure to follow Greece’s example.

U.S. President Barack Obama has proposed increasing taxation of the rich while giving more to the middle classes to reverse the growing inequity there. This move not only has a political strategy underlying it but also economic reasons that favour it. Given the Republican domination in the legislature and their conservative inclinations, it is unlikely that this proposal would be accepted any time soon. But, other countries would be forced to think about the idea, especially in the context of the developments in Greece.

In 2011, Mr. Warren Buffett gave a call to tax the rich more not only for the sake of equity but also to tackle the global economic crisis. This call was picked up in Europe with 16 of the wealthiest French urging their government to tax them more. Fifty wealthy Germans backed this petition. In Italy, the chief of Ferrari also lent support.

Inequity has grown in most countries since the mid-1970s following the domination of global financial capital over policies — spearheaded by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). These policies have not only marginalised other sectors of the economy but also promoted bubble economies that are prone to periodic collapse as it happened beginning 2007 and from which the world economy has yet to fully recover.

These policies promoted shadow banking and all manner of opaque financial instruments that created economic instability. A casino economy emerged with speculation leading to a fictitious boost in paper wealth, promoting a false sense of well-being among individuals and increased consumption by them. As inequality increased dramatically, and there was the marginalisation of the vast majority, there followed the “Occupy Wall Street movement”, termed as the “99% v the 1%” and which also popularised the term, “Main street versus Wall street”.

For people policies

Events in Greece and Mr. Obama’s suggestion suggest that the time has come to end the domination of finance capital over the rest of society. Policy space has to be recaptured from the world of finance by the democratic forces so that policies favouring the people can be initiated.

The dilemma currently facing Indian policymakers reflects these global trends. India’s rightward drift started with the Emergency in 1975 when Sanjay Gandhi marginalised the left of Centre thinking in the Indira Gandhi government. The trend continued during the Janata regime and thereafter under the Indira Gandhi government which had to approach the IMF for adjustment in 1980. Rajiv Gandhi, under considerable influence of the liberalisers, pushed this tendency faster. With the New Economic Policies in 1991 and the emergence of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, there was a paradigm change, with the policies of finance capital becoming entrenched.

For India, which remains very poor and very unequal, policies based on the interest of finance capital and a narrow section of society can only spell disaster. These policies push markets and technology-based solutions which marginalise the individual. The underlying idea is that if making democracy work is difficult, substitute it with technology. Those lacking faith in democracy and social institutions are (in the name of the poor) pushing an autocratic agenda based on greater use of technology. The hard work of creating and nurturing institutions that can deliver to the people and strengthen democracy is sought to be circumvented. So, one of the key proposals today is to push Goods and Services Tax (GST) even if it does not suit the needs of the vast unorganised sectors of our economy and benefits the MNCs and big business. The hard work of making taxation simple and effective and shifting to direct taxes is hardly on the agenda. Creating a large number of jobs is secondary to cash transfers, bullet trains for the elite and smart cities for the upwardly mobile.

The flyovers of Delhi were built to ensure smooth traffic flow but now have speed bumps to slow down vehicles and which leads to jams. The technological solution failed because the institutional design of management of urban traffic is flawed and that is because policymakers did not go deeper into the problem in their urge to provide quick fix technological solutions. The NITI Aayog could throw light on such long-term issues (with solutions that are not just economic or technological but also social and political) of strengthening democracy, building institutions, regaining policy space and so on.

Stay at Arm’s Length from Persons Coughing or Sneezing, Avoid Gathering and Wash your Hands Frequently To Check H1N1 spread

Influenza – A (H1N1) (earlier know as swine flu) is a new influenza virus causing illness in people. First detected in Mexico in April, 2009, it has spread to many countries in the World.

            Swine flu is basically a misnomer. This was originally referred to as “swine flu” because laboratory testing showed that many of the genes in this new virus were very similar to those found in pigs in North America. Further on, it has been found that this new virus has gene segments from the swine, avian and human flu virus genes. The scientists calls this a ‘quadruple reassortant” virus and hence this new (novel) virus is christened “influenza-A (H1N1) virus.”

Swine Flu / Pig Flu

            Is an infection caused by any one of several types of swine influenza viruses that is endemic in pigs. As of 2009, the known strains include influenza C and the subtypes of influenza A known as H1N1, H1N2, H2N1, H3N1, H3N2, andH2N3.Swine influenza virus is common throughout pig populations worldwide. Transmission of the virus from pigs to humans is not common and does not always lead to human flu, often resulting only in the production of antibodies in the blood. If transmission does cause human flu, it is called zoonotic swine flu. People with regular exposure to pigs are at increased risk of swine flu infection.

History

            Swine influenza was first thought to be a disease related to human flu during the 1918 flu pandemic, when pigs became ill at the same time as humans. For the following 60 years, swine influenza strains were almost exclusively H1N1. Then, between 1997 and 2002, new strains of three different subtypes and five different genotypes emerged. The H1N1 form of swine flu is one of the descendants of the strain that caused the 1918 flu pandemic. After persisting in pigs, the descendants of the 1918 virus have also circulated in humans through the 20th century, contributing to the normal seasonal epidemics of influenza. However, direct transmission from pigs to humans is rare.

Transmission

            Influenza is quite common in pigs; the main route of transmission is through direct contact between infected and uninfected animals. These close contacts are particularly common during animal transport, Intensive farming. Transmission may also occur through wild animals, such as wild boar.

            People who work with poultry and swine, especially those with intense exposures, are at increased risk of zoonotic infection with influenza virus endemic in these animals, and constitute a population of human hosts in which zoonosis and reassortment can co-occur. Other professions at particular risk of infection are veterinarians and meat processing workers, although the risk of infection for both of these groups is lower than that of farm worker.

Signs and symptoms

            In pigs, influenza infection produces fever, lethargy, sneezing, coughing, difficulty breathing and decreased appetite Although mortality is usually low (around 1–4%), the virus can produce weight loss and poor growth, causing economic loss to farmers.

            Direct transmission of a swine flu virus from pigs to humans is occasionally possible (zoonotic swine flu). In humans the symptoms of "swine flu" H1N1 virus are similar to those of influenza and of influenza-like illness in general. Symptoms include fever, cough, sore throat, body aches, headache, chills and fatigue. Because these symptoms are not specific to swine flu, a differential diagnosis of probable swine flu requires not only symptoms, but also a high likelihood of swine flu due to the person's recent history. A diagnosis of confirmed swine flu requires laboratory testing of a respiratory sample (a simple nose and throat swab).

            The most common cause of death is respiratory failure. Other causes of death are pneumonia (leading to sepsis), high fever (leading to neurological problems), dehydration (from excessive vomiting and diarrhea), electrolyte imbalance and kidney failure. Fatalities are more likely in young children and the elderly.

Diagnosis

            The CDC recommends real time PCR as the method of choice for diagnosing H1N1. The oral or nasal fluid collection and RNA virus preserving filter paper card is commercially available. This method allows a specific diagnosis of novel influenza (H1N1) as opposed to seasonal influenza

Spread of infection

            Prevention of swine influenza has three components: prevention in swine, prevention of transmission to humans, and prevention of its spread among humans.

            Methods of preventing the spread of influenza among swine include facility management, herd management, and vaccination. Facility management includes using disinfectants and ambient temperature to control viruses in the environment. They are unlikely to survive outside living cells for more than two weeks, except in cold (but above freezing) conditions, and are readily inactivated by disinfectants. The virus survives in healthy carrier pigs for up to three months, and can be recovered from them between outbreaks.

In humans

• Prevention of pig-to-human transmission

            The transmission from swine to humans is believed to occur mainly in swine farms, where farmers are in close contact with live pigs. Although strains of swine influenza are usually not able to infect humans, this may occasionally happen, so farmers and veterinarians are encouraged to use face masks when dealing with infected animals. The use of vaccines on swine to prevent their infection is a major method of limiting swine-to-human transmission.

• Prevention of human-to-human transmission

            Influenza spreads between humans when infected people cough or sneeze, then other people breathe in the virus or touch something with the virus on it and then touch their own face, eyes, nose or mouth. Swine flu cannot be spread by pork products,since the virus is not transmitted through food. The swine flu in humans is most contagious during the first five days of the illness, although some people, most commonly children, can remain contagious for up to ten days.

• Prevention

            How to keep away from getting the flu? First and most important is follow simple steps as cough etiquettes (covering mouth & nose with handkerchief or tissue paper while coughing), stay at least an arm’s length from persons coughing or sneezing, avoid gathering and wash your hands frequently. Try to stay in good general health. Get plenty of sleep, be physically active, manage your stress, drink plenty of fluids and eat nutritious food. Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze; throw the tissue in the trash after you use it. Wash hands often with soap and water, especially after cough or sneeze; avoid touching eyes, nose or mouth and try to avoid close contact with people having respiratory illness.

If one gets sick with influenza, one must stay at home, away from work or school and limit contact with others to keep from infecting them.

Treatment

            If one is having any respiratory distress, one should report to a nearby hospital. If a person becomes sick with swine flu, antiviral drugs can make the illness milder and make the patient feel better faster. They may also prevent serious flu complications. For treatment, antiviral drugs work best if started soon after getting sick (within two days of symptoms). Beside antiviral, supportive care at home or in a hospital focuses on controlling fevers, relieving pain and maintaining fluid balance, as well as identifying and treating any secondary infections or other medical problems. Use of oseltamivir (Tamiflu) or zanamivir (Relenza) for the treatment and/or prevention of infection with swine influenza viruses is recommended. However, the majority of people infected with the virus make a full recovery without requiring medical attention or antiviral drugs.

Present Outbreak in India

            It is noted that that during the period 1 Jan 2015-10 February 2015, the total number of H1N1 cases is 5157 and number of deaths is 407. Largely the cases are from Delhi, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Telangana whereas largely the deaths due to H1N1 are in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Telangana. Now even cases have been reported from West Bengal. The status of H1N1 influenza being monitored daily by the union M/O Health & Family Welfare. 

            Various health institutions treating H1N1 cases are being advised for vaccination against H1N1 influenza for the concerned health workers in the hospitals in contact with H1N1 patients. This will be in addition to the proper personal protective measures being followed at the hospitals. Guidelines are being drafted for vaccination of healthcare workers and these will be shared with the states for dissemination to all health institutions.

            The Government of India has already placed an order for enhancing stock of diagnostic kits to be supplied to the lab network under Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP) being used for testing H1N1 influenza. To enhance the level of preparedness, additional 60,000 Oseltamivir medicines and 10,000 N-95 masks are being procured. In addition, NCDC has floated a tender for additional 10,000 diagnostic kits. In case of need, labs under ICMR have been identified across the country to provide additional testing facilities. In order to prevent panic and inconvenience to people, and to encourage only those cases requiring H1N1 testing are actually taken up for testing, it was decided that the communication strategy should create awareness among the general public regarding this aspect. 

Homeopathy for Swine Flu

           

            At the instance of the Department of AYUSH, the Central Council for Research in Homoeopathy (CCRH) had convened a meeting of a Group of Experts in Homoeopathy, who has recommended that the homoeopathic medicine Arsenicum album could be taken as prophylactic medicine against flu like illnesses. It has recommended Arsenicum album 30, one dose (4pills of size 30 by adults and 2 pills by children) daily, on empty stomach, for 3 days. The dose should be repeated after one month by following the same schedule in case flu like conditions prevails in the area.

India Made Vaccine

      The testing of the Pandemic influenza H1N1 vaccines was undertaken by the Central Drug Laboratory, Kasuali (National Control Laboratory) and declared to be of Standard quality.  The H1N1 vaccine (Brand Name: VaxiFlu S) is manufactured by M/s Zydus Cadila Health Care Limited; live attenuated H1N1 vaccine (Brand Name: Nasovac) manufactured by M/s Serum Institute of India Limited, Pune; inactivated H1N1 vaccine is also manufactured by M/s Serum Institute of India. However, Vaccination is not a recommended intervention for Swine flu infected patients.

IAS & Decentralisation

 By ArunabhaBagchi: 

When I left India in the late Sixties, the IAS was the most coveted career option for the brightest middle class students in Calcutta. None of us knew how to get “boxwallah” jobs.  We all knew that if IFS or IAS did not work out, we might be lucky to be selected for the IPS or some other less glamorous senior central service. It was common knowledge that the UPSC examination was nerve-wrecking, followed by an even more frightening interview. It was, therefore, a big relief when the Engineering School at UCLA offered me a research position to do Ph.D. there. Once in Los Angeles, I thought that there must be an even more prestigious “steel frame” ~ an administrative Service in the United States running the mightiest and richest country on the globe. When I enquired about this from my American friends, they all admitted their ignorance, with a few adding that there might be something similar in the State Department. I forgot all this, as I had neither knowledge, nor interest, in public administration.

It all came back to me as I read in the newspapers that our PM planned to celebrate 31 October, the birth anniversary of SardarVallabbhai Patel, as National Unity Day throughout India. It is, of course, universally acknowledged that it was Sardar Patel who coerced princely states to merge with India, and even sent our armed forces to take over the Nizam’s fiefdom of Telangana. I then remembered that Sardar Patel was also instrumental in continuing the Indian Civil Service (ICS) in the new garb of the Indian Administrative Service after our Independence. The much-detested ICS was the overt face of colonial exploitation and of torture against our freedom-fighters. This proposal of Sardar Patel, therefore, was strongly challenged by many members of the Constituent Assembly. State Chief Ministers rightly construed this as a surreptitious means of controlling them from Delhi, instead of London, and argued that it was a gross violation of the basic tenets of federalism. Sardar Patel, however, prevailed in the end and the Indian Administrative Service was born. The decisive argument in his favour was the crucial role he envisioned for IAS officers in enhancing our national unity.

Although IAS officers are centrally selected, they are dispatched to the states to form the highest administrative cadre there. To achieve the goal of national unity, the cadres are deliberately mixed with one half selected from residents of the state and the other half from those outside the state. With 33 per cent IAS officers promoted from the State Civil Service members, “outsiders” actually dominate between the direct IAS recruits in each state. In reality, an overwhelming majority of new recruits prefer to be posted in their home states. Forcing them to be posted against their will to achieve national unity by just dangling the carrot of their office is weird indeed. How could the governance of a state be improved by bringing recalcitrant recruits from another state?

Another argument advanced in favour of this unusual practice was that it would reduce nepotism and local political pressure on the administration. If we extend this kind of reasoning one level higher, we should have continued to recruit a large part of our senior civil servants in Delhi from England. In fact, if an administrator does not have emotional connection or instinctive knowledge of a state, he would most likely go with the prevalent political wind there. It is also common knowledge that there is hardly any interest for the fresh recruits to join the cadre of states in the North-east or Jammu and Kashmir. These are the only challenging states in terms of national unity. If these young “idealistic” recruits shy away from this mission, it does not speak very highly in favour of maintaining a colonial system to further the cause of national unity.

Civil service in a country is broadly classified as a “career based” system, or a “position based” system. In the “career based” system, prospective candidates are picked up right from the university, or shortly thereafter, by means of a nationwide competitive examination and groomed for the career path leading to top civil service functions. India, France, Italy and Spain, among others, share this system. In the “position based” system, initial appointments of bright candidates are done through departments. At the level of senior civil service appointments recruitment is done by advertisement where potential candidates from all departments, and sometimes from outside the civil service, are allowed to apply. The United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium are some examples of countries in this category.

Both systems have their benefits and drawbacks. In the “career based” system, senior civil servants develop the   esprit de corps and have a total view of the whole administration. The disadvantage is the development of cliques and lack of specialisation in an increasingly knowledge-based environment. In the “position based” system, senior civil servants are drawn from a wider pool of candidates who might have grown in their jobs. The disadvantage is their lack of holistic picture of the administration because of limited mobility earlier. The administrative reform attempted by all OECD (Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development) countries during the last decade consisted largely in modifying their existing system by incorporating positive aspects of the other system.

In India we may be able to do much better. Barring the outlying regions, national unity has become an irrelevant issue in India today. On the other hand, our PM championed the cause of decentralisation in his election campaign. To achieve this, all IAS officers recruited for a state must know the state thoroughly and instinctively. This may be achieved easily by adding in the main examination conducted by the UPSC two state-specific papers, one on the principal language of the state and the other on general knowledge related to all aspects of the state. Based on the ranking, and leaving aside those opting for IFS, every state would recruit IAS officers it needs only from the list of candidates that chose state-specific papers of that particular state.

Many IAS officers want to move to ministries in Delhi later in their career because of abundant power and patronage there. Here is a quote from S.R. Maheshwari’s book  Public Administration in India ~ The Higher Civil Service ~ “It is only a small number of 300 officers who keep hovering around Delhi out of the total membership of 5000 and who act as gate-keepers preventing their other colleagues from getting central postings.” This resulted in Delhi becoming the worst businessman-politician-bureaucrat nexus in India generating the lion’s share of black money in our country. It also deprives our crucial central administration from the services of the most competent IAS officers available in the country. Switching over to the “position based” system for senior appointments in Delhi at the deputy secretary level or higher would solve both these problems at the same time. All suitable IAS officers would be eligible to apply for such positions, with the best candidate selected by a high-powered selection committee just as is done for hiring senior executives in big corporations.

Reforming the IAS is not easy. Attempts to make fundamental changes have turned out to be futile so far. Only Narendra Modi, with his commitment to decentralisation, is in a position to effect real changes in this archaic system.

Speed, scale, skill... solar?

Ionce asked a rural bank officer how he managed to convince farmers to take large loans to install solar panels. He replied, "I remind them that they use two units of electricity a day (60 a month, 730 a year). This country has given you so much. Won't you install solar power, reduce your consumption from the grid and give back to the country?" This Kennedy-style pitch to market solar in India was heart-warming, even inspiring. But to reach 100 gigawatts (GW; which the government plans) by 2022, more than inspiration will be needed. In line with the prime minister's mantra, the solar sector has to match ambition with speed, scale and skill.

India has a little over 3 GW of installed solar power capacity. In order to reach 100 GW, installed capacity has to double every 18 months or at a compounded annual growth rate of 62 per cent, a tall ask by any standard.

The speed of execution depends on several factors. Delays in announcing policies create uncertainties. If developers do not know the tariffs for even the next financial year, how can they secure long-term, low-interest debt finance? Alongside, a roadmap for enforcing renewable purchase obligations (as Rajasthan has done) is urgently needed. A third issue is land availability. Less than 1 per cent of the barren and uncultivated land in the country would be sufficient for 80 GW of grid-connected projects. But land acquisition is not easy. Land accounts for 3.5 per cent of project costs but could increase with rapid deployment and price speculation. State governments could create land banks (Gujarat, Karnataka), lease government land for 25 years or less (Rajasthan), offer exemptions on stamp duties on sale of private land (Madhya Pradesh), or ensure a small share per unit of electricity to the landowner. Whatever the solution, it has to be implemented quickly.

There is no use investing in solar projects if the infrastructure to evacuate power to the grid does not keep pace. The Ministry of Power must provide detailed roadmaps for building new substations. The Green Corridors being implemented in Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu could be further expanded. Electricity regulatory authorities must also consider exemptions from wheeling charges. With net metering policies, grid-connected rooftop projects should be accorded priority in dispatching power.

With speed comes scale but there is more than one route. Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) researchers have proposed three alternatives: "utility heavy" (80 GW of utility scale projects), "rooftop heavy" (45 GW of rooftop projects), and "rural decentralised heavy" (20 GW of solar irrigation pumps). It might be tempting to dream of mega solar parks but they also bring with them the challenges of land acquisition and dispatch. If 15 per cent of irrigation pumps were converted to solar they would amount to 20 GW capacity. Similarly, one-fifth of the 31 million households with roof cover sufficient for 3 kW systems could add 20 GW. Scale can also have strong developmental co-benefits.

All three scenarios would need investments of about $140-$160 billion. These estimates include the costs of energy balancing, with storage equivalent to half of utility scale capacity. The costs increase by over 50 per cent when solar is balanced with gas-based backup. In order to absorb investments at this scale, new institutions and innovative finance would be needed. A Green Bank, initially capitalised via the National Clean Energy Fund, could offer low-interest loans with long-term tenure. It could help to channel infrastructure debt funds and investments from insurance and pension funds, as well as large overseas investors. Risk insurance (to ensure bankable projects), exchange swaps (to mitigate foreign exchange risk) and green bonds could reduce cost of capital and leverage more private financing. Housing finance companies could provide loans to property developers for rooftop systems.

The scale of ambitions will also impact manufacturing and imports. At current prices and with no expansion of domestic manufacturing capacity, India would need solar imports worth Rs 2,14,000 crore ($35.7 billion) for 100 GW. If every year domestic production grew 1 GW and international panel prices fell 6 per cent, imports could fall to Rs 96,000 crore ($16 billion). Reducing import dependence means much greater domestic competitiveness, as well as targeted investments in energy storage R&D.

For speed and scale, skills will be in demand. CEEW and the Natural Resources Defense Council found that between 2011 and 2014, the solar sector created at least 24,000 full-time equivalent jobs across the value chain from business development to design and construction, commissioning, operations and maintenance. If 100 GW were installed, as many as 1 million short-term and about 3,00,000 long-term FTE jobs could be created. These would be over and above any created in manufacturing. Nationwide training programmes, under the National Skills Development Agency, would have to be delivered through a network of trained entrepreneurs (for both grid-connected and decentralised energy projects).

Today, the largest investor conference for renewable energy in India, Re-Invest, will conclude. Up to 266 GW of renewable energy has been committed but financing commitments are less than 30 per cent of these numbers. The roadmap for a significant role of solar in India has many milestones. Speed, scale and skill are needed; there is little time to waste.

How Rafale is killing the air force's future

The priceless Indo-Russian project to co-develop the eponymous Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) is dying of neglect. With the Indian Air Force (IAF) brass focused single-mindedly on procuring 126 Rafale fighters, the air marshals fear that an FGFA on the horizon would undermine their argument that the Rafale is essential. With the costly Rafale procurement imploding in slow motion, the FGFA is becoming collateral damage.

In October 2012, then IAF boss, Air Chief Marshal N A K Browne, announced the IAF would buy only 144 FGFAs instead of the 214 that were originally planned. Having cut down the numbers, the IAF is now undermining the FGFA project itself.

After the apex Indo-Russian Inter-Governmental Commission for Military Technical Cooperation (IRIGC-MTC) met on January 22 to discuss military cooperation, IAF officers whispered to a gullible media that the FGFA was dead. It was reported that Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar had told his Russian counterpart that joint research and development (R&D) was a waste of time. This was factually incorrect. What is true is that the IAF - for reasons that can only be guessed at - is scuttling a project to develop a fighter that would rank alongside the world's best.

Why is the FGFA important, more so than the Rafale? It is a fifth-generation fighter, which makes it operationally more capable than contemporary fourth-generation fighters like the Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon. Gen-5 fighters are designed to be stealthy, which means enemy radar cannot detect them until it is too late. They "supercruise", i.e. fly at supersonic speeds without lighting engine afterburners (the Rafale can do this too); and Gen-5 aircraft have futuristic avionics and missiles. In a war with China, stealthy Gen-5 aircraft would be ideal for missions deep into Tibet, evading China's radar network, to destroy the Qinghai-Tibet railway and roads leading to the Indian border - to prevent China from quickly switching troops around on its superior border infrastructure.

So vital was the FGFA considered to India's aerospace capabilities that, in October 2007, New Delhi and Moscow signed an Inter-Governmental Agreement (IGA) to co-develop the fighter, which placed the project above defence ministry procurement rules. The IGA states that Hindustan AeronauticsLtd (HAL) would partner Rosoboronexport, Russia's defence exports agency, in co-developing the fighter. Furthermore, Indian engineers say the expertise gained from the FGFA would be valuable in building the planned indigenous Gen-5 fighter, designated the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).

Following the IGA, New Delhi and Moscow signed a General Contract in December 2008, stipulating general principles of cooperation such as the share of work and cost, and the sale of the FGFA to third countries. In December 2010, a Preliminary Design Contract was signed in which both sides contributed $295 million towards finalising the fighter's basic configuration, systems and equipment. With that completed in June 2013, the central R&D Contract is now being negotiated. This will govern the bulk of the work - the actual design and development of the FGFA.

Even as the IAF stonewalls the R&D contract negotiations, the need for India to come on board grows ever more pressing. Russia has already designed, built and flown the first prototypes of a Gen-5 fighter they call the PAK-FA (Perspektivny Aviatsionny Kompleks Frontovoy Aviatsii, or "Prospective Airborne Complex of Frontline Aviation"). The PAK-FA, built to Russian Air Force specifications, has already completed 650 test-flights. India's work share will lie in adapting this fighter to the IAF's requirements - which include advanced capabilities like all-round radar that can detect threats in a 360-degree envelope, and voice recognition software that allows the pilot to call out commands. In all, the IAF has specified some 40-45 improvements that they want over the PAK-FA. Indian designers, who will have to integrate these improved capabilities with the existing PAK-FA, are losing out by not participating in the on-going design and test flying in Russia.

The IAF's objections to the FGFA are (a) The Russians are reluctant to share critical design information; (b) The fighter's current AL-41F1 engines are inadequate, being mere upgrades of the Sukhoi-30MKI's AL-31 engines; and (c) It is so expensive that "a large percentage of IAF's capital budget will be locked up." It is ironical that an air force that is eager to spend an estimated $20 billion on the entirely foreign, Gen-4 Rafale is baulking at spending a fraction of that on co-developing and indigenously manufacturing a Gen-5 fighter, which can be maintained and upgraded cheaply for decades to come.

An entire mythology has come up around the cost with even senior air marshals incorrectly stating that India will spend $11 billion on the FGFA. Even this inflated figure would be modest compared to the $40 billion that America spent in the 1980s and 1990s to develop the Gen-5 F-22 Raptor. Yet, in fact, this $11 billion figure was a defence ministry estimation in 2010, which included numerous items that have nothing to do with R&D. Firstly, the amount included both Russian and Indian expenditure; second, it included several options that India may not require, e.g. $1.5 billion for developing a twin-seat FGFA (which the IAF now says it does not want), and $1.5 billion for a new engine. Third, this included the cost of infrastructure that India must establish to manufacture the aircraft in large numbers for the IAF.

Since India urgently needs to start participating in the flight-test programme, of which the PAK-FA has already completed some 20 per cent, Sukhoi would have to build another prototype for India. That cost too is included in the estimation, along with the ground support equipment and training needed for a full-fledged Indian flight-test programme. With all of this factored in, officials closely involved in the negotiations say that India's share in the project could be about $3.5 to 4 billion.

Both sides have already talked around the R&D contract in such detail that it can be concluded in one sitting, provided Indian negotiators are given the green light from a clear-minded political leadership. The FGFA perfectly fits the "Make in India" idea; the strategy of being ready for a two-front conflict; and the IAF force structure of the future. From the standpoint of negotiation strategy, the timing is perfect. The rouble has plummeted more than 60 per cent against the dollar and the rupee in the last five months after the Ukraine crisis. The Russians will agree to the lower dollar rate that New Delhi has been proposing. The time to strike is now.

India, Lanka ink civil nuclear pact, agree to expand defence ties

Sri Lanka's President Maithripala Sirisena, left, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands as they pose for photos before their meeting in New Delhi, India, Monday, Feb. 16, 2015. Sri Lanka's new leader is underlining India's importance as a regional ally by making it his first official foreign destination as president, following years of uneasy relations with New Delhi and international pressure to speed up post-civil war reconciliation efforts at home. AP photo

Taking the ties to a new level, India and Sri Lanka today inked a civil nuclear pact besides deciding to expand defence and security cooperation.

This was announced after the talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena during which both the leaders expressed commitment to find a solution to the emotive fishermen issue by adopting a constructive and humanitarian approach.

"The bilateral agreement on civil nuclear cooperation is yet another demonstration of our mutual trust. This is the first such agreement Sri Lanka has signed. It opens new avenues for cooperation, including in areas like agriculture and healthcare," Modi said in a joint press interaction with Sirisena.

Sirisena, who arrived here yesterday, has chosen India for his first foreign trip after assuming charge of the country. He had dethroned Mahinda Rajapaksa from his 10-year rule after a bitter Presidential poll.

The nuclear pact would facilitate cooperation in the transfer and exchange of knowledge and expertise, sharing of resources, capacity building and training of personnel in peaceful uses of nuclear energy, including use of radioisotopes, nuclear safety, radiation safety and nuclear security.

It would also facilitate cooperation in radioactive waste management and nuclear and radiological disaster mitigation and environmental protection.

The two countries also signed three other pacts, including cooperation in the field of agriculture. Another MoU was signed to enable Sri Lanka to participate in the Nalanda University Project.

The Prime Minister said he and the Sri Lankan leader also agreed to expand the defence and security cooperation.

"We welcomed the progress in our maritime security cooperation, including in the trilateral format with the Maldives," he said.

Modi said he believed that destinies of both the countries are "inter-linked" and that "our security and prosperity are indivisible".

Modi said they had "excellent discussions" on bilateral relations and international issues and added that India was honoured that Sirisena had chosen the country for his first overseas destination after assuming charge.

On the fishermen issue, Modi said he and the President attached the "highest importance" to it.

"It affects livelihoods on both sides. We agreed that there must be a constructive and humanitarian approach to the issue.

"We will encourage the fishermen's associations on both sides to meet again soon. They should find a solution that can be taken forward by both governments," he said.
The Sri Lankan President expressed happiness over the outcome of the talks and said the friendship between the two countries was not only important to each other but was significant for the region as well.

"I really appreciate Prime Minister Modi's efforts (to improve ties). Relations between the two countries will be strengthened further," he said.

Modi also thanked Sirisena for inviting him to visit Sri Lanka and said he was "eagerly looking forward to visiting the country in March".

"We are at a moment of an unprecedented opportunity to take our bilateral relations to a new level. His visit today has set us firmly in that direction," the Prime Minister said while congratulating Sirisena for his historic victory in the recent elections in the island nation.

On the fishermen issue, Modi said fishermen's associations on both sides will be encouraged to meet again soon while noting that that they should find a solution that can be taken forward by both governments.

Modi said India was Sri Lanka's closest neighbour and friend and the goodwill and support of the people of India will always be with it.

"We also share a broad range of interests - economic development for our countries; peace and prosperity in South Asia; maritime security in the region," he said.
On the economic engagement, Modi said both the countries are committed to "unlock" the vast potential of the economic cooperation.

"We are pleased to be Sri Lanka's largest trading partner. I know that India enjoys a huge trade surplus. I expressed my support for a more balanced growth in trade in both directions," he said.


The Prime Minister said he had conveyed to Sirisena India's readiness to promote greater flow of Indian investments and tourists into Sri Lanka.
"We also intend to further improve air and sea connectivity between India and Sri Lanka," he said.

Modi said they discussed expansion of cooperation in energy sector, both conventional and renewable, and that Commerce Secretaries of both the countries will meet soon to review trade ties.

Talking about the Indian assisted projects for internally- displaced persons in Sri Lanka, Modi said they have made excellent progress.

"This includes the Housing Project, under which more than 27,000 houses have already been constructed. The President and I expressed satisfaction with the progress.
"I assured President Sirisena of India's commitment to its development partnership with Sri Lanka. This will continue to cover a broad range of areas, including infrastructure," he said.

Referring to a pact on cultural cooperation, Modi said that like cricket, culture provides a strong bond between the two countries.

"Sri Lankan nationals visit the National Museum in New Delhi in large numbers to pay homage to the Kapilavastu relics. We have decided to reduce the fees for them," he said.