Trysts with e-governance

Life has become simpler for dogs and drivers, but could be even more so

Soon after we moved to Mumbai a few years ago, we were informed that our dog needed a licence from the municipal authorities. Not wanting the favourite member of the family deemed an illegal alien, we set out to obtain one. We entered the building with trepidation, born out of years of frustrating and mind-numbing encounters in government offices, expecting to spend much of the day moving from one counter and one queue to another. Not to mention, the dust, grime and stacks of musty files.

We needn't have worried. The customer-facing part of this particular office had clearly been re-done with e-governancein mind. A number of counters all with desktops, a large waiting area and, best of all, hardly any queues greeted us. I reached the counter and requested a dog licence. Instantaneously, a form appeared on the screen - name, father's name, dog's name, etc, etc. When the dog's breed was mentioned - dachshund - a dropdown menu appeared. Standard or miniature? Smooth, wiry or long-haired? I was impressed! Then came the first hurdle. Dog's age? Eight. Months? No, years. Hesitation and a worried look on the other side of the counter. She then asked me to wait and called a huddle with her colleagues. My heart sank.

It didn't take them very long, though. She came back and told me that the system did not allow her to issue a new licence for an eight-year-old dog. She could only renew an existing licence; a new one was issuable only to a dog less than one year old. The empire strikes back! I said that we'd just moved from New Delhi, so I couldn't have got him a Mumbai licence before this in any case. But, apparently, there was no provision for adult dogs re-locating to Mumbai.

I asked how much the licence fee was. She said it was Rs 100 a year. Rs 100?! I offered a solution. Let me pay the back dues - Rs 800 in all and issue me licences for his whole lifespan. She called another huddle and, re-assured by her colleagues, agreed to this proposal. In and out in about 20 minutes. Not bad at all! But then came the second twist. Go upstairs and get a signature, I was told. My old fears came rushing back.

I walked up the stairs and with every step, the old stereotype of government offices came more and more into view. I found the room, entered and was directed to a desk that was, predictably, unoccupied. No one else in the room volunteered any information, so I just waited - amidst the dust, grime and musty files. Fortunately, the person returned in a few minutes. He looked at me as though I was something he'd scraped off his shoe, but took the licence and signed it without a word. No perceptible value was added by this process, but it took just another 10 minutes and showed me a look that I've been trying to imitate since.

Back in New Delhi, I had to renew my driving licence, which had been issued in Mumbai. The last time I did this, it took six weeks. The Mumbai licence had to be sent back for a no-objection certificate, on receipt of which the New Delhi authority would issue me a fresh licence. Two trips to the office, each of which lasted a few hours, jumping through a number of hoops, the nightmare government office environment - I had the full experience. This time around, though, I was obviously on a different planet.

There was a new office within walking distance from my home. The public areas of the facility were spacious, clean and airy, full of promise for efficient transacting. The room that I was directed to was occupied and the person in charge was handling multiple transactions with great efficiency.

Then came the great surprise! He looked at my licence and, in response to my query about how long it would take, said that just the same as any local licence renewal. I asked about the whole six-week procedure and he said that that was no longer in place. There was a national register of licences now and all I had to do was to get a printout of my Mumbai registration. I got that in about five minutes from another counter and then just had to fill out the regular forms for a local renewal. In and out in 15 minutes, plus another visit, based on an appointment made over the phone - they called me - to get photographed and the licence issued. It reached me by mail a week later. Total time spent in the authority office on both visits: 30 minutes. I was ecstatic!

Even then, while going through the process, I felt it could be speeded up further. I had to stand in about four different queues to complete the process. About half the people ahead of me in all of them turned out to be in the wrong queue. Information about each counter's functions are provided, but sketchily and apparently beyond many people's comprehension. The need to visit multiple counters itself is part of a legacy process that detracts from efficiency.

Based on these and a few other transactions, I am hugely appreciative of how much better routine interface with government has become. But there is always room for improvement.

First, do away with needless steps in the process. E-governance systems make many steps and, consequently, people redundant, but we seem to feel the need to keep them occupied in some way. Hence, the traipse up the steps and the scathing look. It took me only 10 minutes, but the queue for his signature could have been a lot longer.

Second, create full-service counters. Enable all counters to carry out all the steps in the process. Specialised counters are a legacy of a manual process and can easily be done away with, saving time and easing confusion.

Third, provide more comprehensible information and better facilitation services. The much-maligned touts who have been barred now, among other things, were also effective information providers. Their disappearance has left a vacuum, both for customers and new employees! It needs to be filled by the system.

And, of course, accommodate the possibility of adult dogs re-locating!

India's FY15 GDP estimated to soar 7.4% under new methodology

The government on Monday estimated India’s economic growth this financial year at 7.4%, against 6.9% in 2013-14, as the country changed its definition of gross domestic product (GDP), as well as the base year for calculating it.

The estimated growth for 2014-15 is the same as China’s growth for 2014. Earlier, both the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank had said India’s growth would exceed China’s by 2016-17.

According to data released earlier, GDP growth stood at 5.7% in the first quarter of 2014-15 and 5.3% in the second. However, according to the new data, the first quarter recorded 6.5% growth, the second 8.2% and the third 7.5% (agriculture output contracted during the third quarter). Had the government not increased its spending, growth in the third quarter would have been lower, but that would pressure fiscal deficit.  Besides, gross fixed capital formation, a proxy for investment, and private final consumption expenditure, which reflects demand in the economy, witnessed a slow down in growth  as interest rates remained high.

Following the change, the second quarter of 2014-15 recorded higher growth compared to the first, contrary to results thrown up by the previous methodology.

Going by a like-for-like comparison, the projected growth for 2014-15 stands at a four-year high; growth in 2010-11 was 10.3%. The data will boost the confidence of the National Democratic Alliance government, despite the fact that much of the higher numbers were due to a statistical change --- the definition of GDP was changed to include indirect taxes (net of subsidies), called GDP at market prices. Also, the base year was changed from 2004-05 to 2011-12.

"Based on this performance it does look that the Budget will target growth of 7.5-8% in its calculations for FY16 as the policy measures adopted and stable economic conditions will facilitate such growth next year," CARE Ratings chief economist Madan Sabnavis said.

He cautioned that while these numbers reinforce the view of the earlier series of improvement, the numbers get magnified significantly. "Therefore, overall perception on economy should not be changing," he said.

GDP growth as % year-on-year
2005-06 (base 2004-05)	2006-07 (base 2004-05)	2007-08 (base 2004-05)	2008-09 (base 2004-05)	2009-10 (base 2004-05)	2010-11 (base 2004-05)	2011-12 (base 2004-05)	2012-13 (base 2011-12)	2013-14 (base 2011-12)	2014-15 (base 2011-12)
9.3	9.3	9.8	3.7	8.5	10.3	6.6	5.1	6.9	7.4
Note: Growth is given on the basis of new definition of GDP; 2014-15 growth is based on advance estimates

Against advance estimates, results of the three quarters are primarily based on actual data, even as the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data for December are yet to be released. Advance estimates are based on actual data for two quarters, part actual and part projection for the third quarter and a projection for the fourth.

These estimates help calculations for the annual Budget, scheduled to be presented on February 28.

According to the new estimates, the size of India’s economy during 2014-15 is slightly reduced to Rs 1.26 lakh crore from Rs 1.29 lakh crore projected in the Budget. As such, it will be more difficult for the government to meet its fiscal deficit target. Even if it restricts its fiscal deficit to the budgeted Rs 5.31 lakh crore, this would be 4.2% of GDP, against 4.1% estimated in the Budget. The very fact that the government expenditure on public administration and others is projected to rise higher at 9% in 2014-15 against 7.9% in 2013-14 would also widen the deficit.

"Nominal GDP for 2014-15 has been pegged lower than assumed in the Budget, which would make the task of restricting the fiscal deficit at 4.1% of GDP more stringent," ICRA senior economist Aditi Nayar said

Even as annual economic growth rate is projected to pick up in 2014-15, agriculture growth is slated to fall to 1.1% from 2.7% in 2013-14.

Size of India's economy (in Rs crore)
Base Year	2011-12	2012-13	2013-14	2014-15
2004-05	90,09,722	101,13,281	113,55,073	128,76,653*
2011-12	88,32,012	99,88,540	113,45,056	126,53,762
*Budget Estimates

This financial year, industry is estimated to grow 5.93%, against 4.5% the previous financial year. While the manufacturing segment is forecast to expand 6.8% (5.3% in 2013-14), electricity and related sectors are estimated to expand 9.6%, against 4.8% in 2013-14. Growth in mining and quarrying, however, is expected to fall to 2.3% 5.4% in FY14, while growth in the construction sector is estimated at 4.5%, against 2.5% during the previous year.

In 2014-15, the services sector is estimated to grow a stellar 10.62%, against 9.05% in the previous year. Within services, financial, real estate and professional services are set to expand 13.7%, compared with 7.9% in 2013-14.

Trade, hotels and other segments are estimated to expand 8.4%, against 11.1% in 2013-14.

The country's per capita income is projected to increase to Rs 88,533 in 2014-15 against 80,388 in 2013-14 and Rs 71,593 in the previous year. Average income of an Indian rose 10.1% in 2014-15 against 12.3% in 2013-14 and 11.3% in 2012-13.

In the third quarter, agriculture production contracted 0.4% against two% in the second quarter and 3.5% in the first quarter. In fact, it is largely 20% rise in government expenditure on public administration, defence and other services which pushed up GDP growth to some respectable level in Q3. It was starkly higher than 6.9% in the second quarter and 1.9% in the first quarter.

Another area of concern remained gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), which have been showing deceleration in growth.

GFCF rose just 1.64% in Q3 from 2.79% in Q2 and 7.65% in Q1 of the current financial year. PFCE grew 3.53% in the third quarter against 8.69% in the second and 4.34% in the first three months.

Chambers-- Confederation of Indian Industry and the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry-- sought to draw the government's attention to this area and pressed for measures in the Budget to revive investments and demand in the economy.

Centre's fiscal deficit as percentage of GDP
Base year	2011-12	2012-13	2013-14	2014-15
2004-05	5.6	4.8	4.5	4.1*
2011-12	5.8	4.9	4.5	4.2
*Budget Estimates
Source: Ministry of statistics and programme implementation

India’s liability law will not be amended: Union Government

Union Government has notified that India’s Civil Liability Nuclear Damage (CLND) Act, 2010 or CLND rules will not be amended.

In this regard, a detailed paper titled ‘Frequently Asked Questions and Answers on Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act 2010 and related issues‘ was released by Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).

This paper says that the foreign suppliers of the reactors cannot be sued for damages by the victims of a nuclear accident.

However, the suppliers can be held liable by the operator, who has the right of recourse that could be operationalized through the contract between the operator and the supplier.

Governments decision comes after the understanding was reached with the US, during President Barack Obama’s recent visit.

About Civil Liability Nuclear Damage (CLND) Act, 2010

• CLND Act, 2010 was passed by the Parliament in August 2010.
• This Act limits the liability of the operator in case of nuclear accident and secures the operator the right to recourse under certain circumstances and provides a mechanism to compensate victims of nuclear damage.
• In November 2011 under the parent Act, Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Rules were notified. These Rules stipulate certain mandatory clauses for contracts that secure the operator the right to recourse.
• It also prescribe the procedure to provide compensation to victims in case of nuclear incidents.

Ratan Tata among business leaders for zero GHG emissions by 2050

Global business leaders from some of the world’s largest companies under the group ‘B Team’ called on governments and businesses to commit to bold action at this year’s UN climate negotiations in Paris.

The leaders include India’s Ratan Tata, Ariana Huffington, Sir Richard Branson, Unilever CEO Paul Polman, also the B Team leader, all of whom have set their sights on a global goal of net-zero greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions by 2050.

The letter issued on February 5, comes before discussions begin in Geneva this Sunday on fine-tuning the Lima draft text. The B Team said, “As you enter into a critical week of discussions in Geneva, we ask that you communicate this goal to the government representatives who will be negotiating on behalf of the citizens of the world, and that you make every effort to ensure this goal becomes the foundation upon which countries build the text of the final agreement.”

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment said that achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2100 will provide only a 66 per cent chance of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius. The B Team said a 1-in-3 chance of failure is unacceptable, given the potential for catastrophic climate impacts. Acting decisively and immediately, with a clear target of net-zero GHG emissions by 2050, is the only way we can lower this risk and avoid ballooning costs, the B Team pointed out.

The business leaders called on governments to commit to a global goal of net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050, and to embed this in the agreement to be signed in Paris. It urged businesses to match this ambition by committing to long-term targets and driving low-carbon solutions to scale – thereby enabling the world to achieve the net-zero 2050 target.

It also asked for both businesses and governments to adopt meaningful and effective carbon pricing and for governments to end all fossil fuel subsidies, and to shift this capital to help scale affordable renewable energy solutions to enable wider economic transformation.

Businesses and governments should ensure the benefits of responses to climate change flows to vulnerable and impoverished communities that suffer disproportionately from climate change and are least equipped to cope with its impacts, the statement added.

The signatories are Sir Richard Branson, Arianna Huffington, Dr. Mo Ibrahim, Guilherme Leal, Strive Masiyiwa, Blake Mycoskie, François-Henri Pinault, Paul Polman, Ratan Tata, Zhang Yue, Professor Muhammad Yunus and Jochen Zeitz along with Mary Robinson and Dr. Gro Harlem Brundtland as Honorary Leaders of The B Team.

These global leaders have also written an appeal to Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC.

Mr. Polman in the statement said, “A target of net-zero emissions by 2050 is not only desirable but necessary. This is the time to redouble our efforts and further accelerate progress to decarbonize our economy. This is not going to be easy, but the earlier we act, the greater the economic opportunities will be.”

Mary Robinson, UN Special Envoy on Climate Change and President of the Mary Robinson Foundation for Climate Justice, explained that a transition to net-zero will succeed only if it is done fairly. The necessary technology for sustainable development must be an available and affordable option for all countries

New virus, more outbreaks

A look at state-wise data shows that states with larger numbers of fatalities are also those with less successful public health infrastructure as a whole

In July 21, 2009, 14-year-old Rida Sheikh returned from St Anne’s School, Pune, with a runny nose and a headache. A quick trip to the neighbourhood physician later, she was back at school the next day. Five days later, she was on antibiotics. Three days after that, she was in the ICU on ventilator support. On July 30, her throat swabs were sent to National Institute of Virology. On August 4, swine flu had claimed its first recorded Indian victim.

Close to six years later, the Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus has killed 4,407 Indians according to officially recorded numbers. The extent of its spread is, however, far wider.

One of the reasons the virus has captured public imagination is that it is incredibly infectious. In research led by the World Health Organisation and Imperial College and published in 2013, Maria D. Van Kerkhove and her colleagues estimated that one-fifth of the population in 19 countries including India were infected with the virus in 2009-10, the first known season of the virus after the first case was discovered in Mexico in April 2009. The first official case in India was a 23-year-old man who flew into Hyderabad from the United States on May 19, 2009, and was screened at the airport.

The WHO declared H1N1 swine flu a pandemic in June 2009 when laboratories had identified cases in 74 countries, and only declared the pandemic to have ended in August 2010.

The fatality rates from swine flu however, are low; Ms. Kerkhove and her colleagues’ study estimated it at 0.02 per cent of all cases, meaning that only two out of every 100,000 people infected with swine flu died in 2009-10. These fatality ratios are lower than that of seasonal influenza, though public health experts warn against comparing a newer and less well-surveyed virus with seasonal flu.

Younger targets

Swine flu also disproportionately affected young children and younger people, leading to a larger loss in human years than seasonal influenza.

Officially, the world is in a “post-pandemic period” when it comes to swine flu. “Based on knowledge about past pandemics, the H1N1 (2009) virus is expected to continue to circulate as a seasonal virus for some years to come. While the level of concern is now greatly diminished, vigilance on the part of national health authorities remains important. Such vigilance is especially critical in the immediate post-pandemic period, when the behaviour of the H1N1 (2009) virus as a seasonal virus cannot be reliably predicted,” the WHO said in August 2010, declaring the end of the pandemic.

The threat from swine flu to India now needs to be viewed differently, health experts say, with the virus now settling into what is closer to a seasonal influenza pattern. India had 3,037 cases of swine flu and 275 deaths this year as of Saturday, Dr. Jagdish Prasad, Director General of Health Services, told The Hindu. Rajasthan was proving to be of greatest concern with 497 cases and 73 deaths as of Saturday, Dr. Prasad said, adding that a team had been sent to the state. “It does seem like the virus is settling into a seasonal pattern. As temperatures rise, the number of cases has begun to decline,” he said.

Better monitoring

With more deaths in just over a month than there were in all of 2014, it isn’t yet clear if the virus is spreading faster or if there is better surveillance, or if both are happening, Dr. Manish Kakkar, Senior Public Health Specialist, Communicable Diseases, at the Public Health Foundation of India, said. “Since this is a relatively new virus, we are likely to see outbreaks for several years before it settles down into a seasonal pattern,” he said. “But it is also true that before the pandemic, India never had influenza surveillance in place. There was very little laboratory work, very little data gathering and we weren’t investing much,” he said.

With better monitoring, the number of fatalities should decline as well. A look at state-wise data shows that states with larger numbers of fatalities are also those with less successful public health infrastructure as a whole. “Look at Delhi. It has 706 cases but only five deaths. If detected early, there should be no mortality,” Dr. Prasad said.

The government has begun testing a vaccine, but when it is ready for roll-out, it will be administered only to health workers and high risk individuals, Dr. Prasad said. Influenza vaccines are typically kept for high-risk groups only, and changes in the composition of the vaccine need to be made on a yearly basis, Dr. Kakkar said. “Moreover, there have been several studies showing that the effectiveness of the seasonal flu vaccine in many western countries is extremely low,” he cautioned.

LCA-NP2 makes debut flight

The second prototype of the Navy version of the Light Combat Aircraft took off from the Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd runway at 12.27 p.m. and flew for about 35 minutes.

LCA-NP2, the second prototype of the Navy version of the Light Combat Aircraft, flew for the first time on Saturday.

It took off from the Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd runway at 12.27 p.m. and flew for about 35 minutes, said HAL, the production partner in the indigenous fighter programme. Officials of HAL, the Aeronautical Development Agency, safety certifying agency CEMILAC and other DRDO officials watched the flight.

HAL Chairman T. Suvarna Raju said a main contribution in it was the new and complex landing gear designed for NP-2 by engineers of the Aircraft Research and Design Centre.

Navy test pilot Captain Shivnath Dahiya of the National Flight Test Centre flew the NP-2. The chase aircraft cover was provided by a limited series production aircraft (LSP2) piloted by Gp. Capt. Suneet Krishna (retd).

Will 'Make in India' reform trade, too?

The Budget must feature key elements of the pending trade and business facilitation reforms to reduce the massive trade transaction costs plaguing the Indian economy

India is yet to become a major global player even after launching extremely bold and successful economic reforms in 1991 after a massive balance of payments crisis. The main reason is a complete neglect of trade, industrial and business facilitation reforms in the last decade.

First generation reforms (1991-2004) were not followed up, and hard policy decisions on trade, investment, trade facilitation, and regulatory reform were postponed. Strong global growth, coupled with the lagged impact of earlier first generation reforms that unleashed some of the latent entrepreneurial spirit in the Indian economy, led to strong growth between 2004 and 2008. Growth due to global tailwinds was mistakenly perceived as inherent Indian competitiveness, and the urgency and hunger for reforms got dimmed within the bureaucratic and policy establishment.


During this period of policy paralysis, the international trade landscape underwent major changes. International trade today is defined by integrated production networks that combine intermediate goods and services from several countries to produce the final goods and services. Global fragmentation of production is essentially a division of labour based on specialised tasks that need to be combined through an efficient supply chain. Thus, the focus now is to connect to regional and global supply chains. To succeed in that, the massive trade transaction costs have to be drastically reduced through trade facilitation and logistical facilitation reforms. Alongside, the business environment has to make doing business a breeze. This will enable MSMEs to participate actively in linking to global supply chains. This in turn will encourage a larger flow of efficiency-seeking FDI with the aim of making India a hub in the supply chain process. This will create jobs and make inclusive growth real. This should be at the heart of the prime minister's recent 'Make in India' initiative. The following section highlights some of the key elements to be covered under it.

First, the success of 'Make in India' needs to be predicated upon the need to diversify services beyond IT-and IT-ES. Indian trade policy in services became IT-centric with over-emphasis in its trade negotiation priorities on Mode 4 (or liberalisation of the movement of people), a critical demand of the Indian IT lobby. It did not focus on the barriers preventing the take-off of other services such as behind-the-border regulatory restrictions on accounting, legal, engineering, architecture, or health-related professional services in partner countries. Global trade in off-shored services is becoming increasingly about trade in tasks, i.e. carrying out specialised functions within the broader accounting or legal service professions. With the emergence of big data as a driving force of innovation and business development, data analytics and management will emerge as a huge area of opportunity in professional services exports for India. Trade barriers related to regulatory constraints on undertaking certain types of legal or accounting tasks offshore, and barriers related to emerging issues in data privacy and data restrictions, are now the areas of maximum concern for the future growth of off-shore professional and technical services model (such as BPO or KPO). This requires urgent domestic regulatory reforms of the services sector in India and negotiation of such trade barriers within trade agreements.

Secondly, the objective of 'Make in India' to transform India to become a major global player is linked to strategic regionalism. India's regionalism efforts till now were largely uncoordinated andFTAs were put into motion with modest success. India also invested a lot of negotiating energy in FTAs with industrialised economies like Japan and the EU. These agreements follow the old 20th century model of trade negotiating strategy - focus on tariffs and try to keep sectors that are most sensitive out of the tariff reduction schedule. Deeper engagement on technical standards and related barriers, trade facilitation, or on the regulatory aspects of services market access - the issues that define effective market access in this production chain-related integrated global economy - are not a part of such agreements.

Since India's existing agreements or those currently being negotiated (for example, EU-India) remain shallow in terms of their level of ambition, market access gains will be marginal, especially with industrialised-country partners like Japan and EU, given that tariffs there are already low, and agriculture and a liberalised visa regime are not included in these FTAs. The PM's visit to Japan has laid the groundwork for a much deeper bilateral economic partnership that goes beyond the mandate of the existing FTA between the two countries.

Given the current global scenario, it would make sense for India to look to a deeper regionalism that incorporates the 21st century trade negotiating mandate. This would mean reworking its trade engagement with SE Asia and replacing existing shallow agreements with ones that have a wider mandate, as well as simultaneously considering joining, or at least being ready to conform to the TPP's evolving gold standard in trade policy, so that India is not left out of the largest global supply chain. The RCEP, where India is an ambitious agenda setter on new trade barriers rather than a defensive player trying to cherry-pick domestic winners and losers, provides another avenue. The entire focus now should be towards a link to regional supply chains of Asean countries. This will require policies to attract FDI that would help create these regional linkages. Essentially, trade negotiations would have to be complemented by greater focus on domestic reform - i.e., business facilitation to create a more competitive and diverse manufacturing base in India, creating more opportunities to find a niche in the regional production network.

The critical element of this regionalism is connectivity. An ambitious long-term vision to ensure economic connectivity between India and the rest of Southern Asia is critical to India's trade policy objectives in pursuing regional agreements with Asean economies. Connectivity would not only encompass road, rail, air, and sea linkages but also linkages between Indian and Southern Asian energy networks (pipelines and electricity grids). It would also include institutional mechanisms to facilitate movement of people (thus enabling services trade), customs and other regulatory harmonisation, and liberalisation of education, health, banking and financial services.

One must acknowledge the importance attached to by our PM to trade and business facilitation reforms which featured in the first Budget of the new government, and soon thereafter highlighted by the PM himself in adopting 'Make in India' as a top policy reform initiative. This is totally consistent with India's dynamic comparative advantage and with the evolving global trade and investment landscape. The task ahead is not easy. But it is well within our reach. We just need the political will to keep the momentum of trade and business facilitation reforms going and continue to treat this as a top priority reform initiative. Hopefully, the forthcoming Budget will feature key elements of the outstanding trade and business facilitation reforms to substantially reduce the massive trade transaction costs plaguing the Indian economy.