21 October 2014

Lessons from mutiny on the bounty

The recommendations of the World Bank/IMF are presented to us, the people of the South, as scientific, objective, necessary, fair, and in the best interests of the countries where they are to be implemented. This is why the rebellion episode by the bank staff to its restructuring is so significant

In the Financial Times of October 8, the columnist Shawn Donnan, reported that the World Bank was facing an internal “‘mutiny.” Yes, the word mutiny was used. The professional staff were apparently angry about several issues, a deep discontent, because of which the rebellion had been brewing over many days. The key issue was the restructuring exercise being undertaken by the President, Jim Yong Kim, to save, through both the elimination of benefits to staff on mission and also through possible lay-offs, the sum of $400 million. The restructuring exercise, staff felt, was deeply flawed both procedurally and substantively. The columnist reported some members saying that this “thing [restructuring] is affecting everything.” “We can’t do business. We don’t have the budget. It’s a mess, ...” Another staff member complained that “nickel and diming” on travel budgets was causing travelling staff to have to pay for their own breakfasts. “It’s really small beer,” she said. “Has anyone ever thought about the impact of these changes on staff morale?”
Resistance against restructuring

To assuage their feelings, before the semi-annual meeting of the Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) with Finance Ministers and Central Bankers of member countries, President Jim Yong Kim had to hurriedly convene a “town hall” meeting with the staff to discuss their concerns. The issues that was fuelling their anger were: (i) the cost-cutting exercise which meant that items of expenditure that they had been accustomed to, such as a paid for breakfast, were being withdrawn, (ii) the secrecy and opacity of the whole exercise i.e., appointment of consultants, payment of bonus to the senior management, hiring of new senior managers, etc, (iii) the award of a “scarce skills premium” of $94,000 as bonus, over and above his salary of $3,79,000, to the Chief Financial Officer who was carrying out the exercise, and (iv) to the appointment and payment of the huge sum of $12.5 million to external consultants such as McKinsey, Deloitte, and Booz Allen for advice on how to restructure a development Bank, as reported in the Economic Times of October 15, 2014.
For those of us from the Global South, who not only receive but also have to follow the advice of the Bretton Woods twins, on how to “restructure” our economies and change our policies, this episode has four very interesting lessons. The recommendations of the World Bank/IMF are presented to us, the people of the South, as scientific, objective, necessary, fair, and in the best interests of the countries where they are to be implemented. The World Bank is the repository of the most authoritative knowledge on development. It annually publishes the flagship World Development Report (WDR), the first of which in 1978 was titled “Prospects for Growth and Alleviation of Poverty.” Every year since 1978, it flags important themes for development with the 2013 WDR being on “Jobs” and restructuring required to align them with the new economy. The 2015 WDR is on “Mind and Culture” and the World Bank website reports the central argument as being “that policy design that takes into account psychological and cultural factors will achieve development goals faster.” This is scholarly knowledge and is used by many university classrooms as part of required reading. This is what positions the World Bank as a premier knowledge institution on development. Then why is the rebellion episode so significant? There are four aspects of that which merit discussion.
The first is the resistance against the restructuring medicine. This is the same medicine used by the World Bank against the rest of the world. The restructuring exercise, which has eliminated jobs within the public sector, whether this be in government or in the support services required by any public institution, such as of subordinate administrative staff, has produced an underclass of workers, who, although they are still needed, have been deprived of the welfare and security benefits that the permanent staff enjoys and were benefits that had been won by a long history of working class struggles. So, when security guards, drivers, mess workers, sweepers, the class IV workers, have now to live lives filled with anxiety about illness, unemployment, etc., because they work for labour contractors who do not provide any such benefits, the anger of the World Bank professional staff who, because of the restructuring, have to pay for their “breakfast” is a little difficult to understand. The restructuring exercise of economies in the global south has produced an underclass whose livelihood insecurity has increased exponentially. The mutiny at the World Bank appears somewhat paradoxical. Not only is the exercise personally dishonest, given the rebellion when the policy is applied at home, but it is also intellectually dishonest when read against the 2015 WDR. Is this the modern performance of the “mutiny on the bounty”?
Control by the few

The second aspect is the process adopted in the internal restructuring. The Reuters and FT reports tell us that the common complaint of the staff is that the many aspects of the restructuring exercise, initiated by the president, were non-transparent. There was an opacity to the process. For example, questions such as the following needed to be asked. What was the method followed to give the CFO a “scarce skills premium” of $94,000 over and above his salary? Was the work done outside the normal duty of the CFO? How did the president decide on who qualifies for a “scarce skills premium” and how many persons have qualified for this bonus? These were questions asked at the town hall meeting. If the “scarce skills premium” was based on sound management principles, why did the CFO agree to forego the bonus after the uproar? These are good questions and lead one to wonder if countries have the same option of protesting? Did Greece and Portugal and Ireland and Argentina have the protest option? The interesting lesson from this episode is that restructuring produces pain and distress to the many while it rewards the few especially those tasked with implementing it. These few have access to political and intellectual power. They control the methods adopted of public justification which produces a discourse that the restructuring is necessary and will benefit the whole. The few get rewarded while the many pay the price in the restructuring in many countries of the global south.
Neo-liberal triumph
The third aspect is the use of consultants. This is the most disappointing and alarming aspect of the episode. For an institution such as the World Bank, whose main rationale is that it is a knowledge institution about how to promote development, to now implicitly declare that it does not have the knowledge required to restructure itself is a severe admission of the weakness of its knowledge base and skill sets. How does it then prepare a road map to restructure economies when restructuring an institution is infinitely easier than restructuring the economy of a country? Restructuring an institution can draw on the interdisciplinary knowledge of the WDR 2015 such as best practice, graduated approaches, evidenced-based policies, results-based management, measuring and monitoring, etc. (all the keywords of the World Bank itself), to achieve the result of a better, leaner, more efficient, and fair institution. But the decision to hire outside consultants, paying a whopping fee of $12.5 million, shows that the World Bank does not either believe in its own capability, or worse doesn’t have this capability. What is alarming is the message that development thinking will, from now on, be done and propagated by the big global consultancies. Is the World Bank announcing that henceforth even its development knowledge will be outsourced? As reported in the Economic Times, one of the protesters said, “What do they know about development and the complexities of what we do?” Indeed, what do they know? But if we see the economic policy institutions of many countries, we will see a seamless movement of personnel between global consultancies and central banks. Our own development thinking has been outsourced to neo-liberal knowledge institutions, such as global consultancies, ratings agencies and investment banks. We can see this takeover of knowledge production in the area of economic policy, the triumph of the neo-liberal frame, even in India. Look at the key players of our economic policymaking. The World Bank has now given its stamp of approval to this trend. The recolonisation of the Indian mind and the policy discourse is near complete.
The fourth aspect of this troubling episode is the use of words to legitimise the action. In the last few months of the Indian public debate, we have come to see the power of words and the social power the purveyors of these words acquire. The word makes the world. Tagore argued for this philosophical position that language constructs reality, that we see the beauty of the world through our language, and that outside language there is no beauty. Controlling the word, the Bank decides to reward its CFO with a large bonus, while it is reducing the financial package of its other employees; it deploys the justification for this decision as a “scare skills premium.” The CFO gets the additional money because he has scarce skills. The investment Bank fraternity has to be rewarded with huge bonuses because they have scarce skills. Wall Street is built on this justification. This is capitalism’s masterstroke of controlling perception, controlling the public discourse by controlling words. We accept the differentials because we are made to believe it is a “scarce skills premium” to be paid for our own good. Sometimes a typographical error brings out the truth much better. By mistake I typed it as “scare skills premium.” It is.

Fuelling reform

It was a long-awaited reform measure but when the Narendra Modi government eventually deregulated diesel pricing on Saturday, the timing, in the backdrop of falling global oil prices, was just perfect. With oil companies wiping off the under-recoveries on diesel and going into surplus, the government could sweet-coat what is essentially a bitter pill with a cut in retail price of the transportation fuel. While consumers may rejoice over the benefit now, they need to be conscious of the fact that when the wheel of global oil prices turns into an up-cycle once again, the domestic retail price of diesel will go up. That is also when the government’s commitment to the reform measure will be tested. In a deregulated regime, oil companies will adjust diesel prices at periodic intervals to reflect the prevailing international price of oil, just as they do now in the case of petrol. This is as it should be. Subsidies, including on diesel, have been exerting tremendous pressure on government finances, leading to a widening fiscal deficit. The 2014-15 Budget had projected a subsidy burden of Rs.2,46,000 crore, of which petroleum subsidy accounted for Rs.63,500 crore. Thanks to falling oil prices in the last few months and deregulation of diesel now, the petroleum subsidy is expected to be substantially lower than the budgeted level, thus easing the burden on the fisc.
The Modi government has also done well in deciding to deposit the subsidy on cooking gas directly into the bank accounts of consumers. The government should do the same for kerosene subsidy as well given that leakages are the highest there, but only after ensuring that no deserving recipient is left out. The new Jan Dhan accounts could be used for this purpose. With petroleum subsidies now being addressed, the focus should shift to reducing fertilizer subsidy, which is about the same quantum as that on petroleum. Meanwhile, in the other major announcement on Saturday, the government finally addressed the contentious issue of domestic gas pricing which has been hanging in the balance since the start of this year. The formula has been tweaked to curtail the increase envisaged under the Rangarajan formula by over two-thirds thus containing the final base price to $5.61 per million metric British thermal unit. The government has done well in granting a premium to gas produced in ultra-deep water, deep-water and technologically challenging areas as production costs will be high but the fine print that provides details on premium calculation has to be read closely before a final assessment is made. The point, ultimately, is to balance the interests of consumers who desire the cheapest price, and of producers who would want their costs covered fully and topped by a decent margin.

Why Tirole

Jean Tirole’s Nobel prize has generated much excitement for those of us working alongside him at the Toulouse School of Economics (TSE). Tirole’s prize comes as recognition for over 30 years of work on a wide range of topics, from banking and finance to the regulation of network businesses. On a sombre note, it also comes at a time when we at the TSE are commemorating a decade since the passing of Tirole’s collaborator, Jean-Jacques Laffont, who, Tirole noted, “would have deserved to be with me” in receiving the prize.
The Nobel committee’s award specifically focuses on Tirole’s “analysis of market power and regulation”. There are two central questions. First, how will firms behave when there are only a few of them in the market? What prices will they set, what range of goods will they offer, and what will be the quality level of these goods? Second, if competition among firms is insufficient to constrain prices, what policies should regulators use for the benefit of consumers and society at large?
To answer these questions, Tirole has championed the approach offered by information economics, which centres on the role of information that individuals and firms hold privately. A classic example is the regulation of a firm’s pricing, say, a privately owned network that supplies electricity to homes and businesses. Such distribution networks are examples of “natural monopolies”: firms that face no competitors because replication of their infrastructure is infeasible or too costly. Other examples include railroads, ports and phone lines.
The question for a regulator of a natural monopoly is how to set the firm’s prices, given that it has better information about its technology. One possibility is to simply let the firm recover all of its costs. But this gives the firm’s managers little reason to reduce expenditures. Indeed, the management might engage in wasteful spending that benefits only themselves, knowing that the firm will be reimbursed. Alternatively, the regulator could fix a price that does not depend on the firm’s cost. The firm then keeps any reduction in expenditures for itself; that is, there are strong incentives to reduce spending. Unfortunately, this also means that very efficient firms make large profits to the detriment of consumers. The contribution of Tirole, together with Laffont, was to derive the optimal incentive scheme. They showed that the optimal scheme lies between the two extremes. Optimal regulation balances incentives for efficiency against reductions in firm profits.
Laffont and Tirole also studied dynamic models of regulation, noting that regulators do not set firm incentives once and for all but typically revise them overtime. They analysed the problem of a regulator that cannot commit to its future policies, showing how a firm will be led to reveal its true costs only gradually. Tirole has considered a host of other issues, specific to different markets. Together with Jean-Charles Rochet, he has been a leader in the study of platforms operating in “two-sided markets”. Here, a platform is a firm that provides services to users on each side. Credit cards provide services not only to cardholders but also to merchants who accept these cards. Newspapers not only attract readers, but also sell advertising space to companies that want to reach these readers. Tirole studied pricing and competition in these markets, influencing thinking on the regulation of credit-card interchange fees (the fees paid by a merchant’s bank to a customer’s bank). Another example is his study of “patent pools” (in collaboration with Josh Lerner), where companies come together to cross-license patents needed for a given technology. Such arrangements seem increasingly important in high-tech industries such as software development and biotechnology. However, because companies set prices for the pooled patents cooperatively, it is natural to worry that the practice could hurt consumers. Lerner and Tirole argued that it is difficult to assess whether this is the case, and that it depends on the market in question. But they were still able to provide robust policy advice. Tirole has also studied regulatory issues in banking and finance, of special interest in view of the recent financial crisis. He studied the implications of government bailouts in banking and considered how a government can restore a frozen asset market — the dilemma that was faced in the US market for mortgage-backed securities. As these examples attest, Tirole’s prize was not for a single contribution but for a wide-ranging body of work. He has been successful in identifying topics of importance for practitioners, such as regulatory policymakers. The running theme is careful modelling of the incentives faced by individual actors. He has devised models that are detailed enough to capture the relevant complexities, but simple enough to be accessible to a wide readership of economists.

Bankruptcy Reforms Committee


The Hon'ble Finance Minster in his Budget Speech of 2014-15 announced that an Entrepreneur friendly legal bankruptcy framework would be developed for SMEs to enable easy exit.

Pursuant to the above announcement, a Committee has been set up under the Chairmanship of Shri TK Vishwanathan, former Secretary General, Lok Sabha and former Union Law Secretary, to study the corporate bankruptcy legal framework in India and submit a report by February next year.

The Committee will examine the whole gamut of issues relating to bankruptcy including the following specific areas:

i. Why bankruptcy matters?

ii. Early detection and resolution of finacial distress

iii. Protection of interest of stakeholders

iv. Study the rescue mechanism and suggest ways of improving it

v. Examine the role of the institutions engaged in the process of rescue and liquidation

vi. Liquidation procedurefor smaller companies

vii. Any other aspect relevant to the subject

Comments and suggestions on the proposed areas may be sent to Director (FSLRC), Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Room no. 68-A, North Block, New Delhi-110001 or via email on masaldan.gaurav@nic.in within 30 days. 

20 October 2014

State Visits to Japan, United States and State Visits from Australia and China,samveg ias dehradun

The Prime Minister visited Japan and United 
States, while the Australian Prime Minister and 
the Chinese President visited India in September. 
Details of these visits are given below: 
Japan: Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited 
Japan from August 30 to September 3, 2014. 
Japan promised $35 billion investment in India 
over five years. MoUs and other agreements
were signed with regard to: (i) cooperation in 
defence, (ii) partnership between Varanasi and 
Kyoto, (iii) loan for a coal-fired power plant in 
Uttar Pradesh, (iv) new and renewable energy, 
(v) infrastructure development, (vi) healthcare, 
(vii) transport, and (viii) cooperation in 
humanities and social sciences research.36,37

United States, and the UNGA session: Prime 
Minister Narendra Modi visited the United States 
from September 26-30, 2014.38
 He attended the 
69th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, and made a statement 
before the General Assembly.39 He also 
conducted bilateral meetings with the Secretary 
General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-Moon, 
Prime Minister of Nepal, Sushil Koirala, Prime 
Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, 
President of Sri Lanka, Mahinda Rajapaksa, and 
Prime Minister of Israel, Benyamin Netanyahu
during the visit. He concluded the visit with a 
meeting with the President of the United States, 
Barack Obama.40Australia: Prime Minister of Australia, Tony 
Abbott, visited India from September 4-5, 2014. 
An agreement on nuclear energy was signed 
between the two countries which allows for 
supply of uranium from Australia, among other 
things. Three other MoUs were concluded 
during the visit on cooperation in sports, water 
resources management, and technical and 
vocational education/ training.4China: Chinese President, Xi Jinping, visited 
India from September 17-19, 2014. During this 
visit, China promised $20 billion investment in 
India in the next five years. The establishment of 
two Chinese industrial parks, one each in Gujarat 
and Maharashtra, was also announced. MoUs 
and agreements were signed regarding bilateral 
economic engagement in the next five years, 

Task Forces for the FSLRC set up


The Ministry of Finance has, upon the
recommendation of the Financial Sector
Regulatory Reforms Commission, set up four
Task Forces to assist the Ministry in preparing
the roadmap for the establishment of new
agencies. The four Task Forces are
 Task Force on Public Debt Management
Agency (Ch: Mr. Dhirendra Swarup)16
 Task Force on Financial Sector Appellate
Tribunal (Ch: Justice N.K. Sodhi)17
 Task Force on Financial Data Management
Centre (Ch: Dr. Subir Gokarn)18
 Task Force on Resolution Corporation (Ch:
Mr. M. Damodaran)19
The Task Force will complete its task within one
year. 

Half step forward Follow-up reforms needed after diesel decontrol, gas price hike

On Saturday, the of the met and took several important decisions, especially some dealing with petroleum products. A new formula for pricing natural gas in the domestic market was determined; the decontrol of was announced; and the scheme that directly transferred subsidies to bank accounts of users of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders was modified and relaunched. It is good news that the government has taken these progressive steps; all three of them are broadly in the right direction. However, they are not quite enough in each case, and the government must follow up with further action.

The decision on natural gas pricing was politically controversial and long delayed. The new formula is an improvement on the previous candidate, derived by a committee headed by C Rangarajan, who was the chairman of the economic advisory council of former prime minister, Manmohan Singh. Many problematic elements in the Rangarajan formula have been dropped, such as the Japan price, which is inflated because that country is only a consumer market and its price includes many hidden margins. The India price based on the landed cost of  imported gas has also been left out, which is sensible. Further, until arbitration with Reliance ends, the gas from the disputed blocks in the Krishna-Godavari basin will not be included in the price hike — which is fair. But a 34 per cent price rise will nevertheless increase costs. Some downstream user industries, such as fertilisers, have prices that are not yet freed. Unless those prices are also freed, this increase in gas prices will inflate the government’s subsidy bill. There is a similar problem when it comes to the power sector, where tariff differentials for sectors have already played havoc. The revision will prove expensive to the taxpayer unless the government follows up with freeing end-user prices in gas-intensive industries. It is important to note, however, that in some major ways the government is retaining control over pricing in a bid to attract investments into gas exploration. For example, a “premium” has been promised for making investments in higher-cost areas, such as for deep-sea exploration. It is not clear what norms will be followed to determine this premium, and how transparent the process will be. If it is purely a ministerial decision, that would be a step backward.

Diesel price decontrol is the planned end-point of the gradual increase in diesel prices since January 2013. It will be hailed, certainly, when crude oil prices are going down, as they are today. The political establishment, however, must show equal firmness about following market principles when crude oil prices go up. The important point here is that the government should completely distance itself from pricing decisions; those should be taken entirely by the oil companies. The decisions taken by oil marketing companies will now be carefully watched to see if this decontrol is genuine. Indeed now that both petrol and diesel prices are decontrolled, the oil companies should be allowed to move away from co-ordinating their prices. The true test of whether market-based pricing has been introduced is if individual oil companies use price movements to compete with each other.

Finally, there is the reworking of direct benefit transfers, or DBT, for LPG cylinders. But, again, it is meaningless unless the real hard work of fixing the back-end is undertaken — seeding bank accounts with Aadhaar numbers. Real political capital has not been expended here, though. Genuine reform would be to limit or eliminate an LPG subsidy for families that are above the poverty line.

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