Efficiency in Weather Forecasts

Earth System Science Organization-(ESSO-IMD) has formulated plan of Himalayan Meteorology Program to augment observing systems by deploying Doppler Weather Radars, rain radars, Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs), Automatic Rain Gauges (ARGs) etc. This plan has been shared with NDMA. The above observations will lead to improved understanding of the Himalayan weather in general and severe weather in particular. The assimilation of the above observational data will facilitate improvement in now-casting and forecasting.

The weather forecasts are given at three levels, national level from Delhi, North-West Region from Delhi and Local level, in this case from Dehradun. The National Weather Bulletin, based on the global model forecasts produced at 22Km grid scale, is issued four times a day, morning, mid-day, evening and night. It gives weather forecast for next three days, and outlook for subsequent four days. Apart from this, for severe weather, forecast is also provided under heading `Weather Warning for next Three Days.` Regional Weather Forecast Centre provide forecast (based on WRF model, 9 km, ensemble prediction system and unified model) for the NW region for next 48 hours as well as outlook for next 48 hours as an input for forecasting by state level meteorological centers in the region. The local level forecasts are provided twice a day based on above mentioned model forecasts as well as evolving synoptic situation (pressure, winds, rainfall from network of AWSs and ARGs, satellite and radar data). Twice weekly district level Agro-Meteorological Advisory Service (AAS) bulletins for next 120h are issued for use by the farming community.

The national level forecasts are provided to NDMA control room, NDRF as well as print and electronic media and is available on IMD website. The local forecasts are provided to all state and district level functionaries. A short-term forecast of low level winds (300-2100m) is also being provided for helicopter operations.

Based on scientific assessment of the need for further augmentation of observing system network expansion has been formulated. The upgradation of the observing system, high performance computing, communication, forecast/warning systems, product dissemination systems etc. are part of a continuous process by which state-of-the-art science and technology tools can be made accessible to the scientists engaged in weather research and forecasting towards enhancing the service quality.

Tsunami Warning System in Indian Ocean

The Indian Tsunami Early Warning Centre (ITEWC) was established and made fully functional since 2007 and is now rendering operational services as a Regional Tsunami Watch Provider (RTWP) for whole of the Indian Ocean Region by the Earth System Science Organization – Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Sciences (ESSO-INCOIS) located in Hyderabad. ITEWC comprises real-time seismic monitoring network broadband seismic stations apart from national and international seismic stations to detect under- sea tsunamigenic earthquakes from the two known subduction zones of the Andaman-Sumatra and the Markran coast in the Indian Ocean which can potentially affect the Indian coastal states and Island regions, a network of 6 real-time sea-level sensors with Bottom Pressure Recorders(BPR) in the open ocean, HF Radars for coastal currents and 25 coastal tide gauge stations to capture tsunami wave amplitude on 24 x 7 basis. The data is analysed on a continuous basis. All types of data collected from the ITEWC are fully archived and is fully accessible to the Decision Support System (DSS). A host of communication systems are being employed for timely dissemination of advisories.

The centre is capable of detecting tsunamigenic earthquakes occurring in the Indian Ocean region as well as in the Global Oceans within 10 minutes of their occurrence and disseminated the advisories to the concerned authorities within 20 minutes through various modes of communication like email, fax, SMS, GTS and website.

Performance of Manufacturing Sector

The performance of the manufacturing sector, in terms of its annual growth, has been fluctuating during the last 10 years. After experiencing double digit growth during 2005-06 to 2007-08 and in 2009-10, the growth of the manufacturing sector slowed down considerably during 2012-13 and 2013-14. The reasons for the decline in growth of manufacturing sector in recent years inter-alia are moderation in domestic demand, inflationary pressures, increase in input costs and slowdown in economies of other parts of the world etc.

Employment and unemployment estimates are disseminated in the specific rounds of Survey by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO). Planning Commission, inter alia using the available NSSO Survey results at that time etc. estimated in the Twelfth Plan document that employment in manufacturing which had increased from 44.05 million in 1999-2000 to 55.77 million in 2004-05, had thereafter declined by 5 million to 50.74 million in 2009-10. 

NSSO provides only sector wise ‘Work participation rates’ (WPR), not sector wise number of people employed. As per 61^st and 68^th rounds on ‘Employment and Unemployment’ by NSSO, the per thousand distributions of usually employed persons in the manufacturing sector is as given in the table below:

Per Thousand distribution of usually employed persons in manufacturing sector.

NSS Round (Survey Period)	Rural Male	Rural Female	Urban Male	Urban Female
61st (2004-05)	79	84	235	282
68th (2011-12)	81	85	224	231

Source: NSSO

In response to persisting high level of Current Account Deficit (CAD) at 4.7% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2012-13, the Government has taken a number of measures to control CAD and improve the Balance of Payments situation. These include measures for boosting exports, curtailing non-essential imports, measures for reducing gold imports, improving capital inflows and reducing volatility in the foreign exchange market. As noted in Reserve Bank of India’s Fiscal Stability Report June 2014, with modest recovery in key partner economies and policy measures that had been taken, the trade balance improved during 2013-14. Thus, the current account which had been under stress since 2011-12 was brought to a sustainable level during 2013-14 and CAD fell from 4.7 per cent during 2012-13 to 1.7 per cent during 2013-14.

First Airport Operations Control Centre Inaugurated at Chennai

Shri Ashok Lavasa, Secretary, Ministry of Civil Aviation has inaugurated the Airport Operations Control Centre (AOCC) at Chennai Airport. The AOCC has been set up by Airports Authority of India (AAI) bringing together other stakeholders including airlines, ground handlers and security agencies under one platform.  The Centre aims to get optimum utilisation of the airport resources to provide a hassle-free and seamless experience to the passengers.  This involves the implementation of a Common Airport Operations Database (AODB) which provides all the information related to airport operations to all the stakeholders at ten major airports under AAI. Chennai airport has pioneered the AOCC implementation at AAI airports

Performance of Special Purpose Vehicles for Implementation of 39 Projects

The overall performance and achievement of the Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) for implementation of 39 projects sanctioned during the Tenth and Eleventh Five Year Plan Periods are quite satisfactory.  Out of 39 projects sanctioned in the 10^th and 11^th Five Year Plan periods under Industrial Infrastructure Upgradation Scheme (IIUS), 21 projects have been completed and the remaining are at various stages of implementation.  Sanction has been withdrawn in respect of two projects as these projects could not start implementation activities in more than two years despite efforts made by this department.

Most of the projects have been delayed on account of land related issues and environment clearance. Some projects have also been delayed on account of shortfall in contributions from Industrial stakeholders and State Governments.

The latest independent evaluation of the Scheme was carried out in December 2011 by National Productivity Council (NPC). The findings of the Evaluation Study of NPC indicate that the Scheme has provided a robust platform for development of common facilities like R&D labs, Skill Upgradation Centre, Common Tool Rooms, Prototyping Centres, Effluent Treatment Plants and basic infrastructure (road, water, supply, power, etc.) which are essential for the clusters. Majority of these clusters belong to Small and Medium Enterprises who have taken up green initiatives and components to curb pollution. 

The project-wise complete list of projects sanctioned and fund generated of 37 projects is at Appendix-I.

The IIUS has been revised as ‘Modified Industrial Infrastructure Upgradation Scheme (MIIUS)’ for taking up new projects in the 12^th Five Year Plan Period and under this scheme only State Implementing Agency (SIA) such as State Industrial Development Corporation, is authorised to implement the project.  Due to modification in the scheme, projects in the 12^th Plan Period cannot be undertaken by SPV or Special Purpose Entity (SPE), however new projects have been undertaken through SIA.  

Economic Survey pegs GDP growth at 5.4-5.9%

The Economic Survey 2013-14, which was tabled on Wednesday in the Lok Sabha, has pegged GDP growth for the year 2014-15 in the range of 5.4-5.9 per cent.

"There are downside risks to the economy arising from a poor monsoon, the external environment and the poor investment climate. GDP growth slowed to below 5 per cent for two consecutive years, i.e. 2012-13 and 2013-14. The combination of domestic structural constraints, inflationary pressures, particularly food inflation and uncertainty in the global economy, has affected growth and posed challenges for macroeconomic stability," said the Survey.

Agriculture and allied sector grew at 4.7 per cent, while industry grew at 0.4 per cent in 2013-14.

"The key reasons for poor performance have been contraction in mining activities and deceleration in manufacturing output. Manufacturing and mining sector GDP declined by 0.7 per cent and 1.4 per cent respectively in 2013-14. The underlying cause of the poor performance of these two sectors has been considerable deceleration in investment, particularly by the private corporate sectorduring 2011-12 and 2012-13," it said.

Consumer price inflation declined from 10.21 per cent during FY 2013-14 to about 9.49 per cent in 2013-14. However, food inflation remained stubbornly high during FY 2013-14. Contribution of the commodity sub-groups, ‘fruits and vegetables’, as well as ‘egg, meat and fish’ to the food inflation has been very high.

India’s balance-of-payments position improved in 2013-14 with current account deficit (CAD) at 32.4 billion (1.7 per cent of GDP) as against $88.2 billion (4.7 per cent of GDP) in 2012-13.

"India's exports at $312.6 billion grew by a positive 4.1 per cent compared to the previous year’s negative growth of 1.8 percent. Import growth decelerated from 0.3 per cent in 2012-13 to a negative 8.3 per cent in 2013-14, owing to fall in non-oil imports by 12.8 per cent primarily due to restrictions on gold imports," said the document.

But public finances faced serious challenges, with a shortfall in tax revenues and disinvestment receipts and higher than budgeted subsidies, interest and pension payments, fiscal consolidation was mainly achieved through a reduction in grants for creation of capital assets and capital expenditure.

"An important factor in the increase in the Centre’s fiscal deficit after 2008-09 has been the sharp increase in subsidies from 1.42 per cent of GDP in 2007-08 to 2.56 per cent of GDP in 2012-13. For 2013-14 the subsidy bill is 2.26 per cent of GDP," it said.

The Survey identifies the need to address long run problems to improve the investment climate. It emphasises the need for creating a framework for low and stable inflation, setting public finances on a sustainable path by tax and expenditure reform, and creating the legal and institutionalframework for a well-functioning market economy.

"The Survey calls for putting public finances on the sustainable path through fiscal correction, a new Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act with teeth, better accounting practices, greater transparency and improved budgetary management. It argues that improvements on both tax and expenditure are needed to obtain high quality fiscal adjustment," said a press release.

This year's Economic Survey also discusses the need for revamping some of the social sector schemes such as MNREGA, NRHM, SSA, etc.

"It is felt that the outlays for the different schemes have not often translated fully into outcomes owing to the poor delivery mechanism. Leveraging modern technology for efficient delivery of programmes, removing the multiple layers of governance, simplifying procedures, and greater participatory role by the beneficiaries can help in creating a better delivery mechanism," it said.

'CAD likely to fall to 2.1% in FY15; to be fully financed'

India's current account deficit (CAD) is likely to fall to 2.1 per cent of the GDP in 2014-15 and will be fully financed in the current year, the government said today.
CAD, which is excess of foreign exchange over inflows, declined sharply from a record high of $88.2 billion (4.7 per cent of gross domestic product) in 2012-13 to $32.4 billion (1.7 per cent of GDP) in 2013-14.
"With close monitoring and policies calibrated to emerging contexts upfront, it is likely that the CAD may be limited to around $45 billion (2.1 per cent of GDP) in 2014-15, which is likely to be fully financed by stable sources of capital flows," said the Economic Survey for 2013-14 tabled by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in Lok Sabha today.
"After staying at perilously unsustainable levels of well over 4 per cent of GDP in 2011-12 and 2012-13, the improvement in BoP (Balance of Payments) position is a welcome relief, and there is need to sustain the position going forward."
Improvement in BoP in latter half of 2013-14 was indeed swift and owed to exceptional measures like restrictions on non-essential imports, limited period incentives for certain varieties of capital flows and impact of overall economic slowdown on imports, it said.
Hiking customs duty in gold and silver to a peak to 10 per cent, improving capital outflows through quasi-sovereign bonds and liberalisation of external commercial borrowings also helped control rising CAD.
The survey said a longer-term outlook has already been outlined in terms of the fiscal consolidation roadmap leading to a fiscal deficit of 3 per cent of GDP in 2016-17.
"Despite the global and domestic challenges, the economy achieved its targeted fiscal consolidation 2013-14. Nevertheless, this was achieved by cutting expenditure which is unsustainable for an economy."
India's fiscal deficit remained at 4.5 per cent of the GDP in 2013-14.
However, sustaining the robust outcome in the medium term is a challenge as some of the restrictions need to be gradually withdrawn.
It said there is need to adjust to not merely the asset purchase taper by the US Fed but also to the eventual exit from the accommodate monetary policy stance by advanced economies.
A high CAD puts pressure on the rupee, which in turn makes imports expensive and fuels inflation.