Cyclone Forecast: There has been a
remarkable improvement in the prediction of cyclone, and extreme events as
demonstrated in the recent events such as landslides in Uttarakhand
and floods in Jammu-Kashmir, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat due to intense
precipitations and cyclones Ashobaa & Komen (2015). Two very severe
cyclones, HudHud and Nilopher, were predicted well in advance and sufficient
time was available to respond. All aspects of cyclone genesis, intensity,
track, landfall as well as associated rainfall, gale wind and storm surge were
predicted accurately. The forecast for the HudHud was appreciated by the Prime
Minister. The cyclone track, landfall point and intensity forecast errors
have improved to 107 km, 60 km and 11 knots during 2010-14 against 140 km, 110
km and 13 knots during 2005-09 respectively for 24 hours lead period. Extreme heavy precipitations in the Kashmir
valley were predicted 3 days in advance and state administration was alerted.
This has been accomplished by virtue of augmentation of observation system
networks, enhancement of the computing capability and increase of data
availability and implementation of high-resolution global models. Probabilistic
forecasts of rainfall/snowfall and the strike probability of tropical cyclone
have been introduced in the operational forecast products of NCMRWF.
Monsoon Prediction: For the first time,
dynamic models were employed on real-time basis to predict quantitative
precipitation during the southwest monsoon season. The long range forecast
revised in August 2014 for the season (June-September) rainfall for the country
as a whole was 87% against forecasted rainfall of (88 ±4) % of LPA for the year
2014 and 86% against the forecasted rainfall in June 2015 of (88 ±4) % of LPA
for the year 2015 . The onset
of Monsoon over Kerala as well All India Monthly forecast for July and August
was predicted accurately.
Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa: Agromet
Advisory Services Programme of the Ministry has a direct impact on agricultural
production. Weather information based advisories before various stages of
farming provided to 11.34 million farmers in the country covering 633 Districts
of 23 States through Kisan Portal and PPP mode. Farmers’Awareness
Programmes conducted to popularize the service also benefit from the
advisories. In addition, in collaboration with Ministry of Panchayati Raj
(MoPR), around 25 Panchayats have also been identified to distribute agromet
advisories and rain gauges for rainfall monitoring on pilot basis.
Infrastructure Facilities: A High
Altitude Cloud Physics Lab (HACPL) at Mahabaleshwar to study micro physical
characteristics of aerosols and clouds and associated environmental conditions.
A large scale Campaign including aircraft and ground based measurements was
organized over the Ganga Basin and Maharashtra to study cloud-aerosol
interactions . Towards this, high performance computation facilities have
been substantially augmented by upgrading the existing 170 Teraflop to storage
archival capacity of 1000 Teraflop, which is ranked at 36th position in the
world’s top 500 and first in the country. 350 TF Bhaskara HPC was
dedicated to the nation by Minister for Earth Sciences on 2nd June,
2015. For the first time in India an indigenous climate model has been
developed for studying variability and predictability of monsoon on seasonal,
inter-annual and decadal time scale.
A first version of the IITM Earth System
Model was developed indigenously for studies on climate change and making
regional climate change scenarios. Additional research work to further improve
fidelity of the model is going on. A paradigm shift in numerical modelling
activity for operational weather forecast has been achieved. The atmospheric
Model of Global Forecasting System (GFS) with a special resolution of 18 km was
set up which is considerable improvement from 50 km to 18 km resolution. The
resolution of global unified model was increased to 17 km and the regional
model to 4 km, which have resulted in forecast improvements. An advanced
Ensemble Prediction System (~33 km/L70; 44 members) for quantitatively
assessing the uncertainty in the deterministic forecasts and generating
probabilistic forecasts was also implemented. The upgraded data assimilation
scheme using the flow-dependent statistics calculated from an ensemble of
short-range forecasts and ingestion of new Indian satellite data have shown
forecast improvements.
A Seafront Facility of 150 acres along
the Nellore Coast has been acquired for carrying out Ocean Technology testing
and demonstration activities which include establishment of an offshore
numerical tank, ballast water treatment facility etc.
Capacity Development: A set of
four international and four national workshops/training programs were organized
by International Training Centre for Operational Oceanography established at
INCOIS, Hyderabad for promotion of capacity building in the countries of the
Indian Ocean region.
Two Similar regional workshops were conducted in the field of atmospheric
science and services for BIMSTEC countries. IITM, Pune in collaboration with
ICTP, Trieste, Italy has organized a Targeted Training Activity on Monsoon Modelling
during February 2015 at Pune. The third batch of CAT Students has completed the
18-month training program and became eligible for appointment as Scientist-B/C
at different MoES Institutions.
Polar Research: - The 34th
Expedition to Maitri and Bharati, Antarctica and 8th expedition to the Himadri,
Svalbard were launched for glaciological and atmospheric investigations. The
President of India interacted with the Indian Scientists based in Himandri through
video-conferencing. First Ocean moored observatory IndArc for time
series measurement of ocean parameters in the Kongsforden, Svalbard, Norway, deployed
in July 2014 was successfully retrieved on 15th July 2015. This data
recorded continuously for one year is a major achievement in the area of
in-situ observation. New Arctic Observatory (IndArc II) with additional
biogeochemical sensors & acoustic sensors was deployed successfully on 19th
July, 2015 in Arctic. India successfully commenced operations at 3rd
Indian Permanent Station Bharati, in the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica
which would give a major thrust to study in the field of glaciology,
atmosphere, paleoclimate and Polar biology. India has been accorded
observed status in the Arctic Council in recognition of India’s scientific
contribution and endeavour in Polar research. Polar ROV “PROve” was
deployed on 10th of February 2015 at Priyadarshini Lake, Antarctica.
System functionality was successfully tested and it recorded the lake bed
videography which shows the abundance of algal mats clearly. Also PROve was
successfully tested at site near ice shelf in Antarctica. The Ice Shelf is
clearly seen from the Scanning SONAR and scientific data is collected using the
sensors.
Ocean Survey and Exploration: India’s
application for site allotment of about 10000 sq.km in the Indian Ocean with
exclusive rights for exploration was approved in the 20th Session of
the International Seabed Authority (ISBA) held during 14-25 July, 2014 at
Kingston, Jamaica. ISBA is a body established under the United Nations
Convention on Law of the Sea responsible for exploration and exploitation of
resources in the seabed lying in international water. Polymetallic Sulphides in
the Ocean Ridges containing Copper, Zinc, Silver, Gold, Platinum and rare earth
elements, constitute significant and important future mineral resources. The
Indian Site located near the Rodriguez Triple Junction of the Indian Ocean
Ridge in the South West Indian Ocean was identified based on earlier
investigations and research work.
Geoscience: Completion of the
Preparatory phase of scientific deep drilling in Koyna and identified sites for
pilot boreholes, 4.5 km deep. Finalization of Science Plan and team
selection for deep drilling in the Arabian Sea to study evolution of Himalayas
and origin of monsoon was done. Action was initiated for setting
up of National Centre for Seismology for addressing all the seismological
aspect in an integrated way. Operationalized
the Integrated Seismic and GNSS Network and Data Centre for online access to
data from 200 remote seismic and GNNS stations.
International Cooperation: Five
agreements have been signed with international agencies and agencies of
countries such as Japan, USA, Kuwait, Norway, and UNESCO for cooperation in
various fields of earth sciences. A LoI was signed between Ministry of
Earth Sciences and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, USA for cooperation in
research.
Initiation of New Programs:
Himalayan Meteorology program will be
launched to improve observations, both meteorological as well as snow and ice
related, in the region including on glaciers and snow-clad regions. The
capabilities for nowcasting for expeditions, pilgrimage, tourism, etc. also to
be developed.
Severe Weather Warning System: Severe weather
such as dust storms, extremely heavy rainfall, cloud burst, fog, cyclones, etc.
affect different parts of the country regularly. A high resolution (1.5 km)
convective scale regional model has set up for generating forecasts of
severe/extreme weather events and trial runs are being carried out. (iii)
Offshore numerical tank will be established with a hydrodynamic simulation
facility with virtual reality for testing of offshore structures/systems.
Marine Living Resources: Annual trawl-ban
being implemented as part of sustainable management of fishery resources
available in the Indian Coasts has been observed to have significant effect on
the recovery of macro benthic organisms particularly polychaetes and
crustaceans in the inner shelf region where demersal trawling is intense. The
observed values of biomass during the pre and post-ban period indicate an
increase of total biomass almost double as that of initial values in the depth
range between 30 to 50 m. The study exemplifies the importance of the trawl ban
imposed during the monsoon to maintain resilience of coastal ecosystems and its
socio-economic services. A new biodiversity hot spot “Terrace off Trivandrum”
has been identified along the depth contours of 1200 m at South West Coast of
India with an unusually high abundance of deep sea fishery resources as high as
1.2 tonne catch per unit effort.
Ocean Science Technology and
Services:
Two Indo-US joint expeditions were accomplished in the Bay of Bengal for
studying ocean mixing and Monsoon experiments. Forecast on potential fishing
zones and ocean state for India and Indian Ocean countries. Maps for long-term
shoreline changes for Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu were also accomplished.
Ocean Information and Advisory services are now extended for Tuna Fisheries
(daily) and Coral Bleach Alerts (once in 3 days). Online Oil Spill Advisories,
Ocean State Forecasts along shipping routes as well as for Maldives, Seychelles
and Sri Lanka are now provided on regular basis. Indigenously designed and
developed Polar Research Vehicle was deployed at Antarctica successfully for
scientific observations. Completed (i) preparation of Atlas for the Indian
Coast and development (ii) deployment of indigenous drifters to measure sea
surface temperature, pressure and currents having INSAT communication and (iii)
design of the Offshore Reef with beach nourishment for coastal protection at
Puducherry. (iv) teams of scientists retrieved a lost heavy weight torpedo
“Varunastra” of Indian Navy from the sea bed at a depth of 168 metres with the
support of ORV Sagar Nidhi. This is the first time in the country that the
torpedo is recovered from such depths. (v) Autonomous Coring System (ACS)
qualified at 1000m water depth in the KG Basin and drilling done upto ~24m
below the sea floor. (vi) Open sea cage culturing was successfully
demonstrated at Olaikuda and fishermen self-help group successfully cultured
and harvested 7.0 tonnes of cobia in the open sea cage. A societal training
programme on open sea cage culture was conducted on 4th November
2014 at Rameshwaram and 85 participants including fishermen, self-help group
and entrepreneurs participated.
A National Centre for Seismology (NCS)
has been established as an attached office of the Ministry by consolidating all
seismological related activities of IMD and MoES and reorganizing them under
NCS.
NCS has since been disseminating
earthquake information to various designated authorities associated with
disaster management, relief and rescue operations including media. At present
the network is upgraded and augmented and information is provided within 10 minutes
of occurrence of the earthquake. Work is on for establishing early warning
system for the same. Seismic microzonation of NCT Delhi on 1:10K scale has
been completed.
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