First Revised Estimates of National Income,
Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation, 2014-15
Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation, 2014-15
This Press Release is embargoed
against publication, telecast or circulation on internet till 5.30 pm today
i.e. 29th January, 2016.
The Central
Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
has released the First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption
Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation for the financial year 2014-15 (with
Base Year 2011-12) as per the revised policy. Second Revised Estimates of the
years 2011-12 to 2013-14 (with Base Year 2011-12) have also been released as
per the calendar of revision of base year.
2.
The First Revised Estimates for the year 2014-15 have been compiled using
industry-wise/institution-wise detailed information instead of the
benchmark-indicator method used at the time of release of Provisional Estimates
on 29th May, 2015. The estimates of GDP and other aggregates for the
years 2011-12 to 2013-14 have also undergone revision due to use of latest
available data on agricultural production; industrial production especially
those based on the provisional results of Annual Survey of Industries (ASI):
2013-14, final results of ASI: 2012-13 and revised results of ASI: 2011-12;
government expenditure (replacing Revised Estimates with Actuals for the year
2013-14) and also more comprehensive data available from various source
agencies and State Directorates of Economics and Statistics.
3.
The salient features of the estimates at aggregate level are indicated below:
Gross
Domestic Product
4.
Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for the year 2014-15 is estimated as Rs.
124.88 lakh crore while that for the year 2013-14 is estimated as Rs. 112.73
lakh crore, exhibiting a growth of 10.8 per cent during 2014-15 as against 13.3
per cent during 2013-14.
5.
Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2014-15 and 2013-14 stands
at Rs.105.52 lakh crore and Rs. 98.39 lakh crore, respectively, showing growth
of 7.2 per cent during 2014-15, and 6.6 per cent during 2013-14.
Industry-wise Analysis
6. The
changes in the Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices in different sectors of
the economy at current and constant (2011-12) prices are presented in
Statements 4.1 and 4.2 respectively. At the aggregate level, nominal GVA at
basic prices increased by 10.5 per cent during 2014-15, as against 12.7 per
cent during 2013-14. In terms of real GVA, i.e., GVA at constant (2011-12)
basic prices, there has been a growth of 7.1 per cent in 2014-15, as against
growth of 6.3 per cent in 2013-14.
7. The
shares of different sectors of economy in the overall GVA during 2011-12 to
2014-15 and corresponding annual growth rates are mentioned below:
|
Sector
|
Percentage
share in GVA at current prices
|
Percentage
change in GVA at constant (2011-12) prices over the previous year
|
|||||
|
2011-12
|
2012-13
|
2013-14
|
2014-15
|
2012-13
|
2013-14
|
2014-15
|
|
|
Primary
|
21.75
|
21.35
|
21.18
|
20.04
|
1.2
|
4.0
|
1.3
|
|
Secondary
|
29.28
|
28.63
|
27.96
|
27.36
|
4.0
|
5.3
|
5.4
|
|
Tertiary
|
48.97
|
50.02
|
50.86
|
52.60
|
8.1
|
7.8
|
10.3
|
|
All
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
5.4
|
6.3
|
7.1
|
|
|
Aggregate GVA (Rs. in lakh
crore)
|
||||||
|
|
at current prices
|
at constant prices
|
|||||
|
Total
|
81.07
|
92.10
|
103.81
|
114.72
|
85.47
|
90.84
|
97.27
|
8. The
growth in real GVA at during 2014-15 has been higher than that in 2013-14
mainly due to higher growth in ‘mining and quarrying’ (10.8%), ‘electricity,
gas, water supply & other utility services’ (8.0%), ‘trade, repair, hotels
& restaurants’ (10.7 %), ‘financial services’ (7.9%), ‘public
administration and defence’ (9.8%), and ‘other services’ (11.4%), as may be
seen from Statement 4.2. At constant prices, in the primary sector (comprising
agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining & quarrying), ‘agriculture,
forestry & fishing’ has shown a decline of 0.2 per cent while ‘mining and
quarrying’ increased by 10.8 per cent during 2014-15 as against the growth of
4.2 and 3.0 per cent, respectively during the year 2013-14. The growth of
secondary sector (comprising manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply
& other utility services, and construction) is 5.4 per cent and that of
tertiary (services) sector is 10.3 per cent during 2014-15, as against a growth
of 5.3 per cent and 7.8 per cent, respectively, in the previous year.
Net
National Income
9.
Nominal Net National Income (NNI) at current prices for the year 2014-15 stands
at Rs. 110.08 lakh crore as against Rs. 99.34 lakh crore in 2013-14, showing an
increase of 10.8 per cent during 2014-15 as against an increase of 13.2 per
cent in the previous year.
Gross
National Disposable Income
10.
Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) at current prices is estimated as Rs.
127.46 lakh crore for the year 2014-15, while the estimate for the year 2013-14
stands at Rs. 115.29 lakh crore, showing a growth of 10.6 per cent as against
13.2 per cent in the year 2013-14.
Saving
11. Gross Saving
during 2014-15 is estimated as Rs. 41.17 lakh crore as against Rs. 37.25 lakh
crore during 2013-14. Rate of Gross Saving to GNDI for the year 2014-15 is
estimated as 32.3 per cent, the same as in 2013-14.
12. The highest
contributor to the Gross Saving is the household sector, with a share of 57.8
per cent in the year 2014-15. However, the share has declined from 63.4 per
cent in 2013-14 to 57.8 in 2014-15. This decline can be attributed to the
decline in household savings in physical assets, which has declined from Rs.
14.61 lakh crore in 2013-14 to Rs. 13.79 lakh crore in 2014-15. On the other
hand, the share of Non-Financial Corporations has increased from 32.7 per cent
in 2013-14 to 37.2 per cent in 2014-15. The share of Financial Corporations
increased marginally from 7.9 per cent in 2013-14 to 8.2 per cent in 2014-15,
while the dis-saving of General Government has decreased from 4.0 per cent in
2013-14 to 3.2 per cent in 2014-15.
Capital
Formation
13. Gross Capital
Formation (GCF) at current and constant prices is estimated by two approaches –
(i) through flow of funds, derived as Gross Saving plus net capital inflow from
abroad; and (ii) by the commodity flow approach, derived by the type of assets.
The estimates of GCF through the flow of funds approach are treated as the
firmer estimates, and the difference between the two approaches is taken as
“errors and omissions”. However, GCF by industry of use and by institutional
sectors does not include “valuables”, and therefore, these estimates are
lower than the estimates available from commodity flow approach.
14. Gross Capital
Formation (GCF) at current prices is estimated as Rs.42.76 lakh crore for the
year 2014-15 as compared to Rs. 39.12 lakh crore during 2013-14. The rate of
GCF to GDP declined from 34.7 per cent during 2013-14 to 34.2 per cent in the
year 2014-15. The rate of GCF excluding valuables to GDP stands at 33.3 per
cent and 32.7 per cent for the years 2013-14 and 2014-15 respectively. The rate
of capital formation in the years 2011-12 to 2014-15 has been higher than the
rate of saving because of net capital inflow from Rest of the World (ROW).
15. In terms of
the share to the total GCF (at current prices), the highest contributor is
Non-Financial Corporations, with the share rising steadily from 45.7 per cent
in 2011-12 to 52.0 per cent in 2014-15 (Statement 9). Share of household sector
in GCF is also significant, but has declined from 43.4 per cent in 2011-12 to
33.9 per cent in 2014-15. The share of General Government in GCF has increased
from 9.6 per cent in 2011-12 to 12.9 per cent in 2014-15.
16. Within the
Gross Capital Formation at current prices, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation
(GFCF) amounted to Rs. 38.44 lakh crore in 2014-15 as against Rs. 35.64 lakh
crore in 2013-14. The rate of GFCF to GDP at current prices was 30.8 per
cent in 2014-15 as compared to 31.6 per cent in 2013-14. The change in stocks
of inventories, at current prices, increased from Rs. 1.80 lakh crore in
2013-14 to Rs. 2.21 lakh crore in 2014-15, while the valuables increased from
Rs. 1.63 lakh crore in 2013-14 to Rs. 1.93 lakh crore in 2014-15.
17. The rate of
Gross Capital Formation to GDP at constant (2011-12) prices has decreased
marginally from 36.2 per cent in 2013-14 to 35.9 per cent in 2014-15.
Consumption
Expenditure
18. Private Final Consumption
Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 71.93 lakh crore for
the year 2014-15 as against Rs. 65.08 lakh crore in 2013-14. In relation to
GDP, the rates of PFCE at current prices during 2013-14 and 2014-15 are
estimated at 57.7 per cent and 57.6 per cent respectively.
19. At constant
(2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated as Rs. 55.20 lakh crore and Rs. 58.64
lakh crore, respectively for the years 2013-14 and 2014-15 respectively. The
corresponding rates of PFCE to GDP for the years 2013-14 and 2014-15 are 56.1
per cent and 55.6 per cent respectively.
20. Government
Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated as Rs.
13.65 lakh crore for the year 2014-15 as against Rs.11.53 lakh crore during
2013-14. At constant (2011-12) prices, the estimates of GFCE for the years
2013-14 and 2014-15 stand at Rs.9.77 lakh crore and Rs.11.03 lakh crore
respectively.
Estimates
at per capita level
21. Per Capita Income,
i.e., Per Capita Net National Income at current prices, is estimated as
Rs.79,412 and Rs. 86,879 respectively for the years 2013-14 and 2014-15.
Correspondingly, Per Capita PFCE at current prices, for the years 2013-14
and 2014-15 is estimated at Rs. 52,022 and Rs.56,772 respectively.
22. More details
of these estimates are available in Statements 1-9 appended with this Press
Note.
Summary
of Revision in the GDP Estimates
23. The use of latest available data
from various agencies and company-wise revalidation of the industry-wise and
institution-wise (public/private) classification of companies in the MCA21
database have resulted in some changes in both the levels of GVA and growth
estimates for all the years. The reasons for revision in the estimates of the
years 2011-12 to 2013-14, released on 30.01.2015 and the Second Revised
Estimates are mentioned in the Annexure.
Revision in
the estimates of 2014-15:
24.
The following statement gives the major reasons for variation between the
Provisional Estimates (released in May 2015) and the First Revised Estimates of
GVA for 2014-15.
Sector
|
GVA growth in 2014-15
|
Major reasons for variation
|
|
|
Prov. Estimate, May 2015
|
First Revised Estimate,
Jan 2016
|
||
|
Primary[i]
|
0.6
|
1.3
|
Revision
in estimates of production of some crops, livestock products, fish and
forestry products; and use of annual financial reports of public & private
sector companies, in place of IIP in the case of ‘mining & quarrying’.
|
|
Secondary[ii]
|
6.5
|
5.4
|
Actual
analysis of financial reports of a larger sample of public & private sector
companies instead of key financial indicators derived from advance filings of
a small sample of Companies used earlier.
|
|
Tertiary[iii]
|
10.2
|
10.3
|
Use
of Revised Estimates of sales tax and other items in central & state
government budget documents instead of Budget Estimates; and replacement of
key financial indicators derived from advance filings of a small sample of
Companies with actual analysis of financial reports of a larger sample of
public & private sector companies.
|
|
Total
|
7.2
|
7.1
|
|
Upcoming Releases
i.
Advance Estimates for the
year 2015-16, along with quarterly estimates for Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2015-16 on February
8, 2016; and
ii.
Provisional Estimates for
the year 2015-16, along with estimates for all the four quarters of the year on
May 31, 2016.
*****************
1. List of Statements
1. Statement 1.1: Key aggregates of national
accounts at current prices
2. Statement 1.2: Key aggregates of national
accounts at constant (2011-12) prices
3. Statement 2: Per Capita Income, Product and Final
Consumption
4. Statement 3.1: Output by economic activity and Capital
Formation by industry of use at current prices
5. Statement 3.2: Output by economic activity and Capital
Formation by industry of use at constant (2011-12) prices
6. Statement 4.1: Gross Value Added by economic activity at
current basic prices
7. Statement 4.2: Gross Value Added by economic activity at
constant (2011-12) basic prices
8. Statement 5: Finances for Gross Capital Formation
9. Statement 6.1: Gross Capital Formation by industry of use
at current prices
10. Statement 6.2: Gross Capital Formation by industry of use
at constant (2011-12) prices
11. Statement 7.1: Gross Fixed Capital Formation by asset
& institutional sector at current prices
12. Statement 7.2: Gross Fixed Capital Formation by asset
& institutional sector at constant (2011-12) prices
13. Statement 8.1: Private Final Consumption Expenditure at
Current Prices
14. Statement 8.2: Private Final Consumption Expenditure at
Constant (2011-12) Prices
15. Statement 9: Institutional Sectors – Key economic
indicators at current prices
Annexure: Reasons for revision in the estimates of
the years 2011-12 to 2013-14
NOTES ON
THE STATEMENTS
ACRONYMS USED IN THE PRESS RELEASE
CE: Compensation of Employees
CFC: Consumption of Fixed Capital
CIS: Changes in Stock
GCF: Gross Capital Formation
GDI: Gross Disposable Income
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
GFCE: Government Final Consumption Expenditure
GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation
GNDI: Gross National Disposable Income
GNI: Gross National Income
GVA: Gross Value Added
MI: Mixed Income
NDP: Net Domestic Product
NNDI:Net National Disposable Income
NNI: Net National Income
NNI: Net National Income
OS: Operating Surplus
PFCE: Private Final Consumption Expenditure
ROW: Rest of the World
FORMULAE
1. GVA
at basic prices = CE + OS/MI + CFC + Production taxes less Production subsidies
2. GDP
= ∑ GVA at basic prices + Product taxes - Product subsidies
3. NDP/NNI
= GDP/GNI - CFC
4. GNI
= GDP + Net primary income from ROW (Receipts less payments)
5. Primary
Incomes = CE + Property and Entrepreneurial Income
6. NNDI
=NNI + other current transfers from ROW, net (Receipts less payments)
7. GNDI
= NNDI + CFC = GNI + other current transfers from ROW, net (Receipts less
payments)
8. Gross
Capital Formation= Gross Savings+ Net Capital Inflow from ROW
9. GCF
= GFCF + CIS + Valuables + “Errors and Omissions”
10. Gross Disposable Income of
Govt. = GFCE + Gross Saving of General Government
11. Gross Disposable Income
(GDI) of Households = GNDI – GDI of Govt. – Gross Savings of All Corporations
REMARKS ON THE FORMULAE:
1. Production
taxes or subsidies are paid or received with relation to production and are
independent of the volume of actual production. Some examples are:
Production Taxes - Land
Revenues, Stamps and Registration fees and Tax on profession
Production Subsidies -
Subsidies to Railways, Subsidies to village and small industries
2.
Product taxes or subsidies are paid or received on per unit of product. Some
examples are:
Product Taxes: Excise Tax, Sales tax, Service Tax and
Import and Export duties
Product Subsidies: Food, Petroleum and fertilizer
subsidies
7.
Other Current Transfers refers to current transfers other than the primary
incomes
8. Estimate of GCF derived from this formula is
taken as the “firmer” estimate and the difference between this estimate and the
sum of GFCF, CIS and valuables is taken as “errors and omissions”, as referred
in 9 above.
Annexure
REASONS FOR REVISION IN THE ESTIMATES OF THE YEARS 2011-12 TO 2013-14
Revision in major aggregates
The level of revisions in the major aggregates at
current prices is given in the following table:
Changes at the
aggregate level
|
|
|
|
|
(Amount in Rs. lakh
crore)
|
||||||
|
S.No.
|
Item
(at current prices)
|
2011-12
|
2012-13
|
2013-14
|
||||||
|
Old
|
New
|
% change
|
Old
|
New
|
% change
|
Old
|
New
|
% change
|
||
|
1
|
GVA
at basic prices
|
81.96
|
81.07
|
-1.1
|
92.52
|
92.10
|
-0.5
|
104.77
|
103.81
|
-0.9
|
|
2
|
GDP
|
88.32
|
87.36
|
-1.1
|
99.89
|
99.51
|
-0.4
|
113.45
|
112.73
|
-0.6
|
|
3
|
GNI
|
87.55
|
86.59
|
-1.1
|
98.72
|
98.35
|
-0.4
|
112.05
|
111.33
|
-0.6
|
|
4
|
NNI
|
78.47
|
77.42
|
-1.3
|
88.42
|
87.75
|
-0.8
|
100.57
|
99.34
|
-1.2
|
|
5
|
GNDI
|
90.60
|
89.64
|
-1.1
|
102.22
|
101.85
|
-0.4
|
116.01
|
115.29
|
-0.6
|
The reasons for
revision in GVA/GDP are as under:
Base Year
2011-12
· Revision in the results of Annual Survey of Industries
(ASI), 2011-12
· Use of separate scaling factors for ‘Public Limited
Companies’ and ‘Private Limited Companies’ in the MCA21 database, instead of a
common scaling factor used earlier. (This method applies to the subsequent
years as well)
Year 2012-13
· Use of final results of ASI, 2012-13 in place of
provisional results
· Use of updated information on local bodies and
autonomous institutions
Year 2013-14
· Use of updated information on production & prices of
agricultural commodities
· Use of provisional results of ASI, 2013-14
· Replacement of ‘Revised Estimates’ of different items
of expenditure and receipts in the central & state government budgets by
‘Actuals’
· Use of updated information on local bodies &
autonomous institutions
· Use of updated MCA21 database received from the
Ministry of Company Affairs
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