When giants meet

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has just concluded a visit to China, his first since taking the reins at the Centre in 2014. This high-profile visit by Modi attracted global attention as the two Asian giants have begun to form a stronger relationship, based on equality and mutual benefit.

There is little doubt that China and India together can determine the future of Asia. As Jawaharlal Nehru once said, if China and India hold together, the future of Asia is assured. Indeed, the countries share many similarities: large populations, ancient civilisations, developing economies, a history of being wronged by Western powers, immense potential to become global powers. In the past, however, India-China relations have been plagued by mistrust, which stemmed from an unfortunate border war and lingering border disputes. But since Chinese President Xi Jinping took over in 2012, and Modi came to the helm in 2014, things have started to change.

The most important reason behind this sea change in ties is both countries’ realisation that they need to work together to fulfil the “Chinese dream” as well as the “Indian dream”. Both are developing economies with large populations. Their first priority is to reach development to their peoples. And China understands this very well.

That is partly why Xi decided to receive Modi in Xian instead of Beijing, breaking diplomatic protocol and showing special respect for the Indian prime minister. As a result, India and China signed a large number of economic agreements, worth a total of $22 billion. Besides, more agreements on education, scientific research, infrastructure, and cultural exchange have been inked. So, overall, there is no doubt that Modi’s visit to China is a big success.

Of course, there are some remaining issues in India-China ties which would require great wisdom and patience from both sides. As a strong leader, Modi also candidly expressed his opinion on the border issue. Many are doubtful of India and China building real mutual trust, given the stubborn border dispute. But there are good reasons to believe that India is willing to resolve the border issue as soon as possible. This is because, for India, development should be top priority for the coming decades, a goal that China shares. This common national interest is the strongest force bringing the two giants together peacefully. Modi is a pragmatic leader who understands the importance of economic development for India and there is a good chance that the border issue will be resolved sooner than expected.

Then there is the issue of strategic competition between the two giants. India, like China, is an emerging global power. For this reason, a certain degree of competition between India and China is inevitable. Andsometimes both countries cannot fully understand each other’s strategic goals. For example, India is understandably worried about China’s close bond — considered an ironclad relationship — with Pakistan. The Chinese, likewise, worry about India’s increasingly warm relationship with  Japan, China’s primary strategic  rival in Asia. Right now, many Indians are  a bit suspicious of China’s concept of a  “new maritime silk road”, which has caused some deep-rooted insecurities in India. This need not be the case, as China does not seek hegemony in the Indian Ocean.

The so-called “string of pearls” is just a  term for an unreal and imaginary threat posed by China to India.

Many in China worry about India’s interference in the South China Sea issue. Despite the fact that there is some kind of security and economic cooperation between India and Vietnam, no evidence suggests that the former really wants to intervene in the South China Sea dispute. India’s strategy in that region is more likely a response to China’s increasing inroads into the Indian Ocean and continued support for Pakistan. If China is willing to make some concessions in those areas, India is also likely to make some concessions in the South China Sea.

What should India and China do next to further strengthen their relationship then? I have three modest suggestions for both countries. First, both should make a bigger effort to truly understand each other. The sad reality is that, in spite of being the largest populations in the world, very few Chinese and Indians actually visit each other’s country. In this regard, Modi’s announcement that India would grant Chinese nationals an e-visa would help greatly. Both countries are full of tourism resources, and more and more people would love to travel once administrative hurdles are lifted.

Second, as the border issue remains the biggest obstacle in India-China relations, both countries should make an effort to resolve it as soon as possible. The truth is that both need to make some concessions in order to move their relationship forward. Over the past 20 years, China has successfully settled border disputes with many of its Asian neighbours. There is no reason why China cannot reach a satisfactory agreement with India, so long as Xi and Modi can resist domestic pressures. Both are strong leaders, and things look good in this regard.

Third, India and China should cooperate more at the regional and global levels. Both should avoid direct strategic competition in Asia. This means China should respect India’s primacy in the Indian Ocean and and the latter should respect China’s primacy in  the South China Sea. At the global level,  both are members of the BRICS club, and
we should expect more cooperation  there. Indeed, the BRICS bank will be headed by an Indian, showing India’s global leadership capabilities.

All in all, so long as India and China  continue to build mutual trust through deeper economic cooperation and strategic coordination, the future of the relationship between the two Asian giants is promising. Both can learn a lot from each other.

China should learn from India’s rule of law and democratic spirit. India can learn  from China’s economic dynamism. Indeed, if India and China hold together, the future of Asia is assured.