29 March 2017

Revamping India’s 3E’s

Revamping India’s 3E’s
A radical reboot of India’s employment, education, and employability ecosystem is making good progress
Solving India’s problems of poverty are complicated by the 10 lac kids joining the labour force every month for the next 10 years – our demographic dividend. But the only sustainable solution to both is recognizing that jobs and skills change lives in ways that no subsidy ever can. I’d like to make the case that India is rising because we finally have a long-term policy vision that recognizes three things; a) India doesn’t have a jobs problem but a good jobs problems and higher wages don’t come from regulatory diktats but formalization, urbanization, industrialization and human capital, b) India needs to move from deals to rules because it is economically corrosive for an entrepreneur who follows a rule to feel she has missed a deal, and c) the government is organized vertically but jobs and skills are policy horizontals that require teamwork across ministries.
India’s unemployment rate – 4.9% - is not a fudge. Everybody who wants to a job has one but they don’t get the wages they need or want. Most jobs in India don’t pay enough to live and most self-employment is self-exploitation. The project of empowering India’s youth and poor involves declaring war on informal jobs and enterprises while simultaneously creating a Cambrian explosion of formal jobs that pay higher wages. This explosion needs enterprise formalization (our 60 informal enterprises don’t have the productivity to pay the wage premium), smart urbanization (we only have 50 cities with more than a million people relative to China’s 350 and most of ours have an average rush hour commute speed of 7 km/h), rapid industrialization (50% of our labour force works in agriculture but only generates 11% of GDP) and upgrading human capital (fixing schools, skills and higher education). All this needs replacing the lower ambition of Keynes quip “In the long run we are all dead” with the steady purposefulness of Sardar Patel’s quip that “the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago but the second best time is now”. I’d like to make the case that rapid changes to our entrepreneurship and human capital regime are laying the foundations of a New India that is employed, educated, and empowered.
Is the role of the government setting things on fire (industrial policy and huge government spending) or creating the conditions for spontaneous combustion (efficient factor markets of land, labour, capital and low regulatory cholesterol)? Having spent my early career in the license raj, I can attest that the first strategy fails to deliver massive formal job creation because regulatory cholesterol creates companies that don’t have clients but hostages. This is not an argument against the state – if the lack of a state led to job creation than SWAT valley in Pakistan and Waziristan in Afghanistan – would be hotbeds of entrepreneurial activity. An effective state does fewer things but does them better (primary education, public health, law and order, enforcing rules and competition, roads, etc.) while catalyzing entrepreneurship, investment and growth.
India is becoming a fertile habitat for job creation - the abolishment of FIPB, labour reforms, vibrant IPO markets, growing venture capital pool, fiscal discipline, lower inflation, rapid road construction, coming GST rollout, bankruptcy bill, lower corporate tax rates, consolidation of permissions, algorithms to guide inspector behavior, uninterrupted power supply, airport and port improvement, and massive road construction means that first generation entrepreneurs can credibly challenge incumbents because entrepreneurship is no longer about substituting, managing or interfacing with the state. The job is far from done and pending agenda includes a universal enterprise number (replacing the 25+ number issued to employers by various government departments), a PPC portal (moving to Paperless, Presenceless and Cashless compliance could save more than 2 lac trees and greatly reduce corruption), and lower mandatory payroll confiscation (formal employment is crippled by the 45% difference between haath waali and chitthi waali salary deducted for poor-value-for-money schemes). Competitive federalism is an important new lever for job creation; China’s job creation genius was decentralization. The accelerated devolution of funds, functions, and functionaries from Delhi to state capitals over the last few years robs Chief Ministers of their “Delhi” alibi because land and labour markets are local.
The challenge for India’s human capital has never been ideas but execution – you could change the date on the Kothari committee report of 1968 and do well in education reforms and Apprenticeship reforms were the 20th point in the 20 point program of 1975. Shifting from poetry to prose in skill development is starting to pay-off; more has been done on skill development with the creation of New Ministry in the last few years than the many decades before that. The Apprenticeship Act amendments mean that apprenticeship growth rates are more than 150% annually after decades of stagnation. Our target should be crossing Germany’s 2.7% of its labour force in apprenticeships that would raise our current 5 lac apprentices to 1.5 crore. Even though the Sector Skill Council performance is uneven, the high performing ones are creating a superb employer and demand driven skill ecosystem. The conversion of employment exchanges to career centers has begun but needs acceleration. Work has begun on linking skills to school and college; the Right to Education Act is morphing to the Right to Learning Act by shifting focus to learning outcomes and the ban on online higher education that sabotages marrying skills to degrees is being reviewed.
India is on the move because the government now recognizes that our problem is not a bad job vs. no job but a good job vs bad job. Policy making is making the leap that science made from classical physics (discrete systems) to quantum physics (everything is interrelated) with improved policy teamwork across Ministries in Delhi and between those Ministries and state capitals. Formal job creation has no silver bullets but Fiscal Discipline, Demonetization, GST, Uninterrupted power, Consolidation of 44 labour laws into 5 labour codes, Skill Development, and much else are a powerful brew. India missed her Tryst with Destiny – there are 300 million people today who will not read the newspaper they deliver, sit in the car they clean, or send their kids to the school they help build - but she has made a new appointment and this is one she will keep because policy has finally begun praying to the gods of skills and good job creation.

Time to nuke the storm in the teacup

Time to nuke the storm in the teacup

It is time for India to undertake a comprehensive review of its nuclear doctrine and kill the unnecessary speculation
During the recently concluded 2017 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference, Vipin Narang of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology set the cat among the pigeons by suggesting that India’s nuclear strategy, if not the doctrine, might be undergoing some significant changes. At the centre of attention are two of the most debated aspects of the doctrine: (1) no first use, and (2) massive retaliation. Narang derived the strength of his argument from Shivshankar Menon’s 2016 book Choices: Inside The Making Of India’s Foreign Policy.
In the book, Menon extols the utility of the no-first-use (NFU) doctrine but also goes on to say: “Circumstances are conceivable in which India might find it useful to strike first, for instance, against an NWS (nuclear weapon state) that had declared it would certainly use its weapons, and if India were certain that adversary’s launch was imminent.” Narang marshalled the remarks of B.S. Nagal, former commander-in-chief of the Strategic Forces Command, and Manohar Parrikar, former defence minister, questioning no first use to boost his claim.
While Menon agrees with the promise of “massive retaliation” stated in India’s nuclear doctrine, he seems to shift its meaning from inflexible and non-credible countervalue targeting of urban centres to a counterforce targeting of Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile. In exact words, Menon says: “India would hardly risk giving Pakistan the chance to carry out a massive nuclear strike after the Indian response to Pakistan using tactical nuclear weapons. In other words, Pakistani tactical nuclear weapon use would effectively free India to undertake a comprehensive first strike against Pakistan.”
Both of Menon’s arguments when combined suggest that once India is convinced that Pakistan is going to unleash its tactical nuclear weapons, New Delhi will launch a disarming first strike to eliminate Pakistan’s stockpile of high-yield nuclear weapons. Narang contends that India’s development of Mirvs (multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles) and missile defences further indicates that this may indeed be India’s evolving strategy. After all, Mirvs will enhance first-strike efficiency and missile defences will help neutralize Pakistan’s remaining weapons after a majority of them have been eliminated in the first strike.
If this is the case, then Pakistan will be incentivized to go first. And why will it start with tactical nukes? It will indeed be tempted to start with strategic nuclear weapons. Therefore, in theory, a nuclear war could ensue tomorrow. But let us step back for a moment. Perhaps too much is being read into the chapter which Menon has clearly written to defend India’s NFU pledge—consistent with the overall tenor of the book which portrays India as a restrained power with mature leadership. It is difficult to imagine that Menon has deliberately ended up building a case for India triggering a nuclear war with guaranteed mutually assured destruction just because a company-sized troop is in danger of being attacked with short range nuclear weapons on the soil of Pakistan.
Moreover, if Menon was going so much against conventional wisdom, he needed to elaborate further. For instance, a comprehensive counterforce strike just when Pakistan’s use of tactical nukes is imminent would hardly be more credible than countervalue targeting after the tactical nukes have been used. If the latter’s lack of credibility stems from political unwillingness, the former’s comes from a lack of capability—immaculate intelligence and accurate missiles are required to implement a comprehensive counterforce doctrine. The task is even more difficult to contemplate with the proliferation of mobile land-based weapons systems and Pakistan’s moves towards sea-based platforms.
Menon’s chapter also gives contradictory signals and is casually written. For instance, at one point he also opens the door for a mixed counterforce and countervalue targeting: “There is nothing in the present doctrine that prevents India from…choosing a mix of military and civilian targets for its nuclear weapons”. Surely, countervalue (even if mixed with counterforce) targeting does not make sense with first strike in response to mere sabre-rattling using tactical nukes in Pakistan.
Further, at another point Menon says that Indian doctrine talks of “punitive retaliation”. He is plain wrong here. The phrase “punitive retaliation” was used in the draft doctrine prepared by the National Security Advisory Board in 1999. The official doctrine which was released in 2003 by the cabinet committee on security changed it to “massive retaliation”. In other words, India consciously chose to make the doctrine more inflexible.
The phrase “massive retaliation” has a particular meaning—it was first expounded in a January 1954 speech by then US secretary of state John Foster Dulles in clear countervalue terms. Interestingly, Dulles later retracted to a great extent in the April 1954 issue of Foreign Affairs. In contrast, Menon at best is cryptic and at worst contradictory and confused. Neither helps the Indian cause, especially when your adversary is a military-industrial complex looking for excuses to build more nuclear weapons and amass more powers to the detriment of its own country and people.
Perhaps it is time for India to undertake a comprehensive review of its nuclear doctrine and release an updated version to kill the unnecessary speculation. It will be good for India to climb down from its “massive retaliation” perch but it should stick steadfastly to its NFU pledge.
Should India undertake a review of its nuclear doctrine? 

How far have women gained from India’s growth story?

How far have women gained from India’s growth story?

While health outcomes have improved, the economic status of women hasn’t shown much improvement
The past decade saw India growing at its fastest pace ever. How did women fare during this phase? Data from the latest round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) conducted in 2015-16 provides some answers. The data shows a steady, if slow, improvement in women’s health, indicating that gains in family incomes and public health initiatives directed at women may have had some impact. The data also shows some improvements in women’s status but the record here is far more mixed.
The share of women with below-normal body mass index (BMI) has fallen significantly while the share of women with anaemia has fallen slightly over the past decade, the data shows, even though stark differences across states still remain. The share of women with below-normal BMI declined 13 percentage points between 2005-06 and 2015-16 to 23% (corresponding figure for men is 20%). Over the same period, the share of women with anaemia fell 2 percentage points to 53% (the corresponding figure for men is 23%).
The NFHS also captures data on women’s participation in household decisions and violence they face at home. While such data is self-reported and hence must be interpreted with caution, they are among the most credible information available on women’s status in the country. The data shows that across the country fewer women now face violence from their partners even as female participation in household decisions is now increasing.
But the overall gains mask some disturbing trends. In states such as Delhi and Haryana, the proportion of women who faced spousal violence actually increased even as their share in household decision-making fell, indicating that economic growth alone may not guarantee empowerment of women. Most (though not all) north-eastern states, which also tend to have relatively high levels of female literacy, fare better on these parameters compared to other parts of the country.
The most disappointing aspect uncovered by the survey relates to women’s economic status. The last employment survey conducted by National Sample Survey Office in 2011-12 had recorded a dramatic fall in women’s participation in the labour market. The latest results from the NFHS show that the situation may not have improved much in the intervening years. The NFHS enumerators ask women who reported having worked in the response period if they have been paid in kind or cash for their work. The proportion of working women who were paid for their work in cash fell 4 percentage points over the past decade to 24.6% . The decline has been felt across most Indian states.
The low proportion of women who receive wages or salaries in cash (as opposed to those doing unpaid work or receiving wages in kind) indicates how little space women occupy in the fast-growing Indian economy. Women’s status in our society can see a quantum leap only when they become bigger stake-holders in the formal economy, and their economic status and purchasing power increase significantly. Till that happens, economic development will largely remain a male-centric phenomenon in the country.

Narendra Modi’s Israel visit: The view from Arab palaces

Narendra Modi’s Israel visit: The view from Arab palaces

That no Arab state has voiced displeasure to the announcement of Narendra Modi’s Israel visit is nothing short of astonishing
When Narendra Modi visits Israel this year, it will be remarkable for two reasons: first, that it will be the first visit to the Israeli state by an Indian head of government; and second, that it will in all likelihood raise no eyebrows—never mind hackles—in the Arab world.
The exact dates for the trip have not yet been announced, but it has been known for some weeks now that it will happen this summer. And yet, no Arab state has voiced any displeasure, not publicly, and not even through diplomatic back-channels.
This is nothing short of astonishing to anyone who, like your humble servant, grew up in the India of the 1970s and 1980s, when it was routine for New Delhi to join the Arab chorus of condemnation for Israel at Tel Aviv’s every turn.
Whether it was because of India’s need for Arab oil, or because there were so many Arab members of the benighted Non-Aligned Movement, or because the Jewish state was tied to the US while New Delhi was chummy with the USSR, or simply because so many in this country genuinely sympathized with the Palestinian cause, a succession of Indian governments avoided diplomatic relations with Israel.
In the 1970s and 1980s, it was routine for India to join the Arab chorus of condemnation for Israel at Tel Aviv’s every turn
If you had told me then that an Indian Prime Minister would one day be making an official visit there, I would have laughed you out of the room.
But that prospect is no longer surprising: the two countries began building close ties in the 1990s, and are now locked in a tight embrace of economic, defence and security interests.
What is astonishing, though, is the absence of even a murmur of protest from India’s friends in the Arab world. West Asian diplomats quizzed by my colleagues at Hindustan Times have shrugged off the idea of Modi’s visit as a matter of realpolitik. One expressed the mild hope that the Prime Minister might also visit the West Bank, to show some solidarity with the Palestinians, but acknowledged that this is unlikely.
One reason for the Arab pococurantism over deepening Indo-Israeli relations is a resigned acceptance that the two countries have much in common, including their enemies, in the shape of Islamist terrorism.
Another is a profound sense of Palestine fatigue in Arab capitals, whether on account of the interminable and intractable nature of the problem, or because other Arab peoples—Syrians, for one—are making a more pressing case for sympathy.
One reason for the Arab pococurantism over deepening Indo-Israeli relations is a resigned acceptance that the two countries have much in common, including their enemies, in the shape of Islamist terrorism
Yet another reason for the lack of concern among Arab governments for India’s friendship with Israel is that many of them would themselves like an accommodation with the Jewish state.
Countries like Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have for some time now reportedly been making quiet, behind-the-scenes contact with the government of Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, and the frequency has grown since January 2016, when the US and other major powers signed a nuclear treaty with Iran.
Arab leaders have determined that Shia-ruled Iran represents an existential threat to their Sunni-dominated regimes, and recognize that, in this, they have a common cause with Israel. Netanyahu’s trenchant tirades against the theocracy in Tehran have an enthusiastic audience in Arab palaces.
This is especially true in Riyadh and Manama, where the threat of Iran is felt most keenly. The Saudis are terrified that Iran will stir up trouble in its eastern province, where there is a large Shia population—and where a great deal of the country’s oil lies below the ground.
Spooked by Tehran’s encouragement of the Houthi militia that controls much of Yemen, the Saudis have led a Sunni-Arab coalition in a protracted military misadventure in the heel of the Arabian Peninsula (the Houthis are nominally Shia).
Arab leaders have determined that Shia-ruled Iran represents an existential threat to their Sunni-dominated regimes, and recognize that, in this, they have a common cause with Israel
Bahrain’s Sunni rulers, meanwhile, feel Iran’s breath on their shoulder as they continue to suppress their Shia-majority population.
The Sunni states had long banked on the US to forestall the threat from Tehran, but the nuclear deal—Iran agreed to scrap its nuclear ambitions in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions—has left them scrambling for succour elsewhere.
Russia, the most obvious alternative, is seen as being on Iran’s side, with Moscow offering Tehran billions of dollars’ worth of military hardware.
China has said it would like the Israeli-Palestinian issue resolved, but has shown no interest in playing umpire between the Shias and the Sunnis.
That leaves Israel, which is not only hostile to Iran, but has its own arsenal of nuclear weapons with which to menace the mullahs in Tehran.
But Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and most other Arab states have no formal relations with Israel: most of them don’t even acknowledge Israel’s right to exist.
For six decades, their propaganda machines have portrayed the Jewish state as an abomination, and have normalized anti-Semitism among their citizenry.
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and most other Arab states have no formal relations with Israel: most of them don’t even acknowledge Israel’s right to exist
The rulers of these states cannot now afford to be seen breaking bread with Israel, and so can only play a form of diplomatic footsie—or rely on sympathetic intermediaries to ferry little notes between them.
So, if Modi does hear from Arab rulers before his visit to Israel, it may very well be in the form of requests to convey cautious felicitations. And it’s just conceivable that Bibi Netanyahu will want Modi to carry a message for Saudi King Salman, who is expected to visit New Delhi later in the year.

27 March 2017

The Great Ganga Cleanup: A Timeline

The Great Ganga Cleanup: A Timeline

Considered to be one of the endangered rivers of the world, river and flood experts have raised concerns over the contamination of River Ganga. As the Government gears up to make River Ganga pollution free, here is a look at the Namami Gange journey
FeaturesWorld Water Day Special
     
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The Great Ganga Cleanup A Timeline
It is India’s lifeline, cutting across 5 states and providing water to 40% of India’s population across 11 states, but the Ganga is in distress. For centuries it has been revered and worshipped but today it is among the most polluted rivers in the world, full of waste from industries, religious offerings to cremation activities. In 2014, the government launched the ₹20,000 crore Namami Gange project to clean and beautify the Ganga.
Within the first month of the project, 704 industries were examined by the National Ganga River Basin Authority and out of those, forty eight industries were asked to shut down.
In 2014, various river surfaces faced a rise in pollution levels due to lack of waste disposal techniques. It was then, that the Namami Gange project began the cleanliness work in 5 locations- Varanasi, Kanpur, Allahabad, Mathura and Patna.

The Great Ganga Cleanup: A Timeline

It is India’s lifeline, cutting across 5 states and providing water to 40% of India’s population across 11 states, but the Ganga is in distress. For centuries it has been revered and worshipped but today it is among the most polluted rivers in the world, full of waste from industries, religious offerings to cremation activities. In 2014, the government launched the ₹20,000 crore Namami Gange project to clean and beautify the Ganga.
Within the first month of the project, 704 industries were examined by the National Ganga River Basin Authority and out of those, forty eight industries were asked to shut down.
In 2014, various river surfaces faced a rise in pollution levels due to lack of waste disposal techniques. It was then, that the Namami Gange project began the cleanliness work in 5 locations- Varanasi, Kanpur, Allahabad, Mathura and Patna.

The Great Ganga Cleanup: A Timeline

  1. May 2015 | Centre allocates  ₹20,000-Crore for the next five years. It also introduces a three-tier mechanism to improve implementation of this flagship initiative. 
    Read: http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/centre-okays-rs-20-000-crore-budget-for-namami-ganga-scheme-762770  
  2. November 2015 | River Ganga to be one of the cleanest rivers by October 2018 assures Union Water Resources Minister Uma Bharti. 
    Read: http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/ganga-to-be-one-of-the-cleanest-river-by-october-2018-uma-bharti-1244165    
  3. January 2016 | The Central Government launches the Ganga Task Force Battalion deployed at Garhmukteshwar to ensure that citizens do not pollute the river.
  4. July 2016 | In presence of Union Ministers Nitin Gadkari and Narendra Singh Tomar, Water Resources Minister, Uma Bharti launches the ‘Namami Gange’ initiative with 300 projects in more than 103 locations in five basin states of river Ganga. 
    Read:  Namami Gange Projects Worth Rs. 250 Crore Launched In Uttrakhand
  5. September 2016 | Parameswaran Iyer, Secretary of Drinking Water and Sanitation Ministry assures that all the villages across Ganga will turn Open Defecaton Free by the end of 2016. According to ministry officials, 1300 villages have already gained the ODF status post the clean Ganga initiative. 
    Read: Villages Along The Ganga To Be Open Defecation Free By December
  6. October 2016 | More than 5000 idols were immersed across Ganga during Durga Puja in Bihar thereby raising the pollutions levels lakes, rivers and ponds. Despite several appeals from Bihar State Pollution Control Board’, people contaminated water with harmful elements such as mercury, zinc oxide, chromium and lead 
    Read: Immersion Of Idols Increasing Ganga’s Pollution Level In Bihar
    banega-swachh-india-ganga-pollution-in-bihar
  7. October 2016 | National Green Tribunal (NGT) says central and state officials clueless on the amount of waste generated in the Ganga and do not know how many drains are polluting the river. 
    Read: Authorities Clueless On How Many Drains Carry Sewage Into Ganga: NGT
  8. October 2016 | Uttar Pradesh Pollution Control Board blames residential and commercial building for a poor waste management system. Multi-storied complexes built along the floodplains of Ganga and Yamuna have failed to introduce a mechanism for municipal solid wastes thereby contaminating the rivers. 
    Read: ‘Encroachments On Floodplains Release Sewage Into Ganga, Yamuna’
  9. December 2016 |  NGT orders Uttar Pradesh authorities to compile industries operating between Haridwar and Unnao. The report must consist of details on quantum and quality of waste being generated into the rivers. 
    Read: National Green Tribunal Directs UP Authorities To Give Details Of Industry Clusters Near Ganga
  10. December 2016 | In first of its kind decision, the government seeks to introduce a new bill under Ganga Act to punish those found polluting the river. 
    Read: Government Planning To Penalise Those Found Guilty Of Polluting Ganga
    Ganga clean up
  11. January 2017 | The Supreme Court orders the central government to prepare a fresh report on the status of the ongoing Ganga cleaning programs in the five states through which the river passes. 
    Read: Update Report On The Status Of Ganga Clean-up: SC To Centre
  12. January 2017 | The Union Water Resources Ministry announces deploys 20,000 youth known as ‘Swachhta Doots’ in Uttarakhand, Uttar   Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal to spread the cleanliness message.  The Rs. 10 crore project aims to train the youth to motivate people to refrain from polluting the Ganga. 
    Read: 20,000 Youths To Be Trained And Deployed As ‘Swachhta Doots’
  13. Swachhta BootsJanuary 2017 |  Corporate India joins the ‘Namami Gange’ project as part of their CSR activities. 
    Read: Government Seeks Corporate Assistance To Clean Ganga
  14. January 2017 |  Corporate India joins the ‘Namami Gange’ project as part of their CSR activities.
    Read: Government Seeks Corporate Assistance To Clean Ganga
  15. February 2017 | NGT questions the government agencies on execution of the Rs. 20,000 crore ‘Namami Gange’ project. The tribunal says that public money is being misused in the name of cleaning the Ganga. 
    Read: Public Money Wasted, Not A Drop Of Ganga Cleaned: National Green Tribunal
  16. February 2017 | NGT questions the government agencies on execution of the Rs. 20,000 crore ‘Namami Gange’ project. The tribunal says that public money is being misused in the name of cleaning the Ganga. 
    Read: Public Money Wasted, Not A Drop Of Ganga Cleaned: National Green Tribunal
  17. February 2017 | Copper and chromium level rises in several tributaries of Ganga due to illegal processing of electronic waste. National Green Tribunal orders an investigation over dumping and burning of e-waste. 
    Read: Is Electronic Waste Being Dumped Along The Ganga? NGT Orders Probeelectronic waste
  18. March 2017 | Under the ‘Namami Gange’ project, the government allots an additional Rs. 1050 crores to build sewage treatment systems. Two Sewage Treatment Plants (STPs) to be constructed in Patna to ensure timely waste disposal. 
    Read: Projects Worth Rs. 1,050 Crore Announced To Clean Ganga
  19. March 2017 | National Mission for Clean Ganga launches a mass movement ‘Ganga Swachhata Pakhwada to create awareness and a sense of ownership among the people living along the banks of River Ganga about cleanliness and sanitation.
  20. March 2017 | Government declares 3234 villages Open Defecation Free under the Namami Gange.
  21. 2017 | In a landmark judgement, Uttarakhand High Court grants a legal human status to River Ganga and Yamuna. 
    Read: http://swachhindia.ndtv.com/ganga-yamuna-living-human-entities-hc-5650/

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