The growing importance of trade for India
Trade enriches countries because it extends the scope for efficient division of labour
It
is now time to dump a tired old assumption about India—that it has an
economy closed to trade both within its territory as well as with the
rest of the world. The reality is refreshingly different.
The new Economic Survey written by the team of finance ministry
economists headed by Arvind Subramanian has used a unique data set of
invoices from the goods and services tax network to estimate the level
of trade between states (tangentially, we welcome the innovative use of
Big Data in the Economic Survey. Railway passenger data has also been
used to estimate internal migration patterns. The Indian government
needs to embrace such use of Big Data).
The
estimates in the Economic Survey show that interstate trade flows,
which include the movement of goods between firms and within firms, are
around 54% of gross domestic product (GDP). The usual assumption in
economic geography, that large countries with substantial domestic
markets have robust internal trade, can explain why interstate trade is
so active in India, and is perhaps an antidote to the usual belief that
the outdated barriers to trade across states reduce the movement of
goods and services across borders.
What is unclear is how much of this internal trade is natural and how much a result of a perverse indirect tax system.
It
is much the same story with international trade. The old shibboleths
need to be discarded. India once suffered under a system of autarky.
Much has changed since then. The ratio of trade to GDP has shot up after
the economic reforms of 1991 but especially in the first decade of the
current century.
Few
seem to notice that India has since 2011 traded more with the rest of
the world than China does. The trade intensity of both these economies
has come down sharply since world trade started contracting a few years
ago, but India continues to maintain its lead over China on this front.
What
are the implications of these two facts? Trade enriches countries
because it extends the scope for efficient division of labour. It thus
raises productivity. And trade barriers are an invitation to poverty. So
the new evidence that India actually has a robust trading culture
should be welcomed.
The
task of the Narendra Modi government is to push ahead with more
openness on both fronts. The Prime Minister said in November that he
wants India to become the most open economy in the world. The data in
the Economic Survey shows that we are no laggards—but the challenge now
is to keep dismantling barriers to internal and external trade.
The
global task is an important one given the rise of protectionist
sentiment in many developed countries. Free trade has helped hundreds of
millions of Indians and Chinese emerge from the shackles of poverty.
There is immense strategic value for India to combine with countries
such as China and Japan to keep the flag of free trade flying in the age
of Donald Trump. India should not see international trade as a zero-sum
game.
The case
for even more internal trade is also a solid one. The makers of our
Constitution were perhaps still worried about the risks of separatism in
the aftermath of Partition when they put in clauses such as Article 302
that gave Parliament the power to impose restrictions on trade between
states, even though there could not be discriminatory policies that were
specifically targeted at any one state.
Companies
have been forced to build suboptimal supply chains because of a
fragmented internal market. The agricultural produce market committee
laws restrict the ability of farmers to sell across state borders. Such
restrictions are past their due date, and the new goods and services tax
will hopefully iron out some of these problems.
India
is now a middle-income country that has seen the benefits of trade over
the past 25 years. Internal economic integration as well as fewer
barriers to international trade should be key policy concerns in the
years ahead.
India needs to reclaim its place as one of the great trading cultures of
the world. A lot has already been done since 1991. The task now needs
to be completed.
What should the government do to open up the Indian economy to benefit more from trade?
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