Master
stroke on black money to make India Swachch Bharat
The mid night scrapping of
Rs 500 and Rs 1000 currency notes , as announced by Prime Minister Shri
Narendra Modi in his address to the nation on November 8, is being seen
as a master stroke against black money and corruption that has been
eating into the Indian economy like a termite for several decades. The
sudden announcement of a decision which may be well thought over several months
with only a handful of the top echelons in the government having a whiff
of it, would cause some disruptions in the interim, but then as the Prime
Minister called upon the people , it is the price each citizen is called upon
to pay for defeating the monster of corruption and black money which,
combined with counterfeit currency and terror funding, can strike at the root
of a nation.
“There comes a time in
the history of a country’s development when a need is felt for a strong and
decisive step,” Shri Modi said. But for the Donald Trump victory,
India’s war on black money would have created instant ripples the world over.
In any case, the ripples of the Modi move to hit at the hoarders of ill-gotten
money where it would hurt them the most, would be felt for the Indian economy
far too long.
While Swachch Bharat is
being implemented for cleaning up streets ,roads and building toilets
, PM’s sweep shot on corruption is the biggest ever exercise
launched anywhere in the world to broom and clean up the economy which was
growing at the fastest clip among the global peers , yet yielding low results
for the common people. Imagine the scale at which the brooming exercise
can clean up the system. By some estimates as much as Rs 14 lakh crore currency
notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 denomination are in circulation and would be
withdrawn by December 31, 2016 or at the most March 31,
2017.
Some bankers feel that there
could be as much as one-third of this amount which may not be deposited with
the banks, since taking the ownership of the loads of money stashed in gunny
bags may land some people in trouble . Now that would mean the country gets a
windfall of Rs 4.33 lakh crore which would accrue to the nation in terms of
reduced liability of the Reserve Bank of India which will replace the
surrendered currency that much less.
Going forward, this huge
cleaning up would lead to a much better fiscal position of the Central
Government with several positives for the macro picture , the biggest being on
the inflation front. As is common knowledge that inflation is fuelled by a
large margins by the black money which finds its way into conspicuous spending
on theme parties and building of assets like real estate. In fact, the
real estate market has been thriving only on the cash part of the deals which
of course would stop, giving a jerk to the sector in the transit till it
readjusts itself to the new reality. So, it is being rightly interpreted by the
analysts that the crack down on black money would be a big deflationary move,
ultimately helping the common people, who may have to go through some temporary
pains .
Besides, the decision to
scrap high value notes would drastically reduce premium on corruption in the
public services since the risk –reward would be highly tilted towards the peril
of being caught off-guard. As enumerated in the PM’s address to the nation, the
NDA Government has taken several other measures to check the black money
in the last two years. These include: a law for disclosure of
foreign black money; agreements with many countries to add
provisions for sharing banking information; strict law to curb
benami transactions; and a scheme for declaration of black money
after paying a stiff penalty. As much as Rs 1.25 lakh crore has already
been brought out through these efforts and if we add another Rs 4.33 lakh
crore which may not return to the banking system and become junk, over Rs 5.50
lakh crore , a humungous figure, would have been neutralized. The benefits
would certainly accrue in the medium to long term.
The only challenge for the
government in the interim is to ensure that a minimum inconvenience is
caused to the common people and the banking system is geared up to instill a
sense of confidence among the people that the common households’ money is very
much safe.
“Honest citizens want this
fight against corruption, black money, benami property, terrorism and
counterfeiting to continue. Which honest citizen would not be pained by reports
of crores worth of currency notes stashed under the beds of government
officers? Or by reports of cash found in gunny bags? “, a decisive Prime
Minister said.
He is so right when he says
that in spite of being ranked as the fastest growing economy in the
world, India figures so high on the global corruption index. With so many steps
having been already initiated, India still ranks 76 on this dubious distinction.
Even though initial
reactions in the stock markets were adverse, as was expected, the sentiment was
also related to the Trump victory which had spooked the global markets which
would slowly digest the new global paradigm of challenging the status quo.
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