2 March 2017

The shrinking Plan

The shrinking Plan

Technology has made the idea of decentralised planning tangible

I have quoted from this book in the past, but there is no harm in doing so again. This quote is from Alexander Campbell’s The Heart of India, published abroad in 1958. The book is “banned” in India. The word “ban” is often used loosely. This book has never been published or printed in India. The ban (Customs notification No. 49, dated March 11, 1959) is on imports into the country. It is an extremely patronising book, though that should hardly be a reason for a ban. There is a section about a meeting with Vaidya Sharma of the ministry of planning. “He (Vaidya Sharma) put away the housing development papers and talked again about the Five-Year Plan. ‘We have now entered the period of the second Plan. The first Plan built up our food resources; the second Plan will lay the foundations for the rapid creation of heavy industry. Delhi, as the capital of India, will play a big part, and we are getting ready to shoulder the burden. We are going to build a big central stationery depot, with a special railway-siding of its own. There will be no fewer than 12 halls, each covering 2,000 square feet. They will be storage halls’, and, said Sharma triumphantly, ‘we calculate that the depot will be capable of an annual turnover of 1,400 tons of official forms, forms required for carrying out the commitments of the second Five-Year Plan!’”


Richard Mahapatra is the Managing Editor and publisher of Down to Earth. In the current issue (February 16-28 2017), he writes, “Many old-timers, gathered around a Murphy Richards transistor in a library, would react to the approval of the five-year plan, as a grave voice of the newsreader would inform about allocations. In colleges, the economics professors would read out the new priorities to students and often, shyly, hint at lucrative academic opportunities and new subjects for applying for scholarships. Not going into the details of whether planned development did any good or harm to India, the five-year plans were always good experiences.”
I will not get into the merits/demerits of planned development, not only in terms of historical context, but also its continued relevance/irrelevance. (In view of the Campbell quote, perhaps I should have said reverence/irreverence.) As students, we were reverently taught, and studied, plan models. I don’t know if this reflects my jaundiced view, but the charm of plan models probably died out with the Fourth Plan (1969-74), at best, the Fifth (1974-78). Once rolling plans (1978-80) got going, plan models gathered moss. Incidentally, the number of equations in any plan model was almost entirely driven by the computing power one could rustle up.

In our student days, we rarely read plan documents and we certainly didn’t read annual reports of the Planning Commission. Let me now quote from the 1977-78 Annual Report of the Planning Commission, during the rolling plan era: “The Commission has suggested two new developments in the evolution of the country’s planning methodology, viz. (a) the adoption of the rolling plan system and (b) the preparation of comprehensive area development plans at the block level. Year-to-year targets will be set for sectoral outlays and output for major sectors within the Five Year Plan; performance against these targets will be reviewed annually… There is no basis for the apprehensions expressed that the introduction of a Rolling Plan system would mean the abandonment of long-term objectives, reducing the commitment of resources for development, and freeing the implementing agencies from any accountability for non-achievement of targets. The modifications proposed will not mean either the abandonment of perspective planning or the replacement of the discipline of a five-year framework by ad hoc annual decision-making. A new 15-year perspective plan will be prepared for charting the longer-term course of development of the economy as a whole. The Perspective Plan would provide the framework for investment decisions in long-gestation projects for which a five-year horizon is inadequate, and for planning for land use, water resources, oil and mineral development and manpower.”
I have refrained from quoting from the decentralised planning sections. In hindsight, both ideas seem prescient and both have a rationale, though Vaidya Sharma wouldn’t have approved. Decentralised planning lacks the raw appeal that centralised mathematical models possess. Even now, students are fascinated by the Oskar Lange kind of idea of a central planning board completely replicating the market through a tatonnement (trial and error) process. Note that decentralised planning received lip service since the First Plan (1951-56) — District Development Councils were formed, the Planning Commission formulated guidelines for district planning in 1969. A Manual for Integrated District Planning was prepared by the Planning Commission in 2009. The last quote is from that manual: “From the late sixties to the mid-eighties, the trend was towards greater centralisation of administration. Due to the absence of concerted political and administrative support, panchayats had by the late sixties been superseded in most states. The formulation of Centrally Sponsored Schemes (CSS), implemented mainly through line departments led to the virtual collapse of the district planning process. Though there were several efforts to stem the tide, (Dantwala Committee, G.V.K. Rao Committee), these were largely unsuccessful.”
The supercomputers of the 1970s were primitive. Forget those, in its heydey of modelling, the Planning Commission didn’t have access even to mainframes. But that remained the aspiration and decentralised planning seemed to replace it in every district with what are now called tablets.

 

UKPCS MAINS result is out 11 out of 16 in first batch,best of luck for interview.


UKPCS MAINS result is out
11 out of 16 in first batch,best of luck for interview.
Samveg ias congratulates theirs student for their hardwork ,discipline ,dediction due to which they got selected in ukpsc mains exam.
we were almost sure for their result by checking their answer during answer writing practice.unfortunately some good student has also not been selected.we feel sorry for them,but they have good chance in next pcs exam
ANSHVEY.
ATIYA
ARADHANA
MANISHA
DRISHTHI
RAHUL
VINOD
MANAS
PAWAN
SHALIEN
PANKAJ

RBI’s monetary policy committee must improve its communication


The monetary policy committee should better appreciate the fallout from its inconsistent action-guidance mix across reviews
India’s infant monetary policy committee (MPC) has already made history: In just three bi-monthly reviews beginning October, it has acted upon three different inflation assessments. At this pace, perhaps one shouldn’t be surprised if the panel decides to shift to a tightening bias at the next meeting in April!
The MPC’s decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.25% on 8 February was unanimous. However, the minutes of the meeting reveal all the members didn’t bless the unexpected shift in stance to neutral from accommodative, though it was the majority view. To be sure, four of the six members mentioned the need to shift the stance; only one of the three external members agreed with them.
India’s MPC’s framework has a leg up compared with other such panels. This is because the meeting minutes contain comments by each of the six members. However, the MPC is still a work in progress as it attempts to find the right balance between the policy action, justification for that action and guidance, while being clear, consistent and credible within and across reviews. The latest minutes offer some useful insights but also raise some uncomfortable questions. Communication remains a key problem area behind the disconnect between market expectations and the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) shifting thought process.
The MPC has offered three different inflation assessments in as many reviews: dovish (October, when it eased and continued with the accommodative stance); uncertain/concerned (December, repo rate on hold but accommodative stance maintained; and unambiguously hawkish (February, on hold but shifted stance to neutral from accommodative).
The October rate cut was a close call as markets were struggling to decipher the new policy response function—there was a new governor, a new MPC, and, as some had flagged, a softer interpretation of the inflation target. The on-hold rate decisions in December and February were both unexpected by a wide margin. Not a single living entity anywhere in the world expected a shift in the policy stance in February.
Why have markets and the MPC been on persistently different wavelengths? It is certainly possible that those of us sitting in the trenches are clueless and have been misreading the MPC over its last three meetings. But there is more, and the committee itself is responsible for the miscommunication.
Governor Urjit Patel owes an explanation for the conspicuously missing focus on the 4% inflation target in his comments in the October minutes. This finds clear mention in the minutes for December and February. Perhaps the exclusion was because of the glaring inconsistency of the decision to cut rates despite the RBI raising the inflation forecast for FY18.
It was that repo-rate cut and the dovish tone of the statement that accompanied it that prompted financial markets to expect more easing after reassessing the monetary response function of the new institutional regime. It now turns out that that was a case of either an egregious miscommunication, or the MPC subsequently decided to become a born-again hawk. It is unclear if the latter has anything to do with questions about the RBI’s credibility with respect to demonetization.
The latest MPC minutes are also perplexing in some ways though the renewed commitment to the 4% target is welcome. First, the two members who did not favour changing the stance strangely chose not to (or were not allowed—we don’t know) share their reason(s). It is odd that the MPC concluded there was no useful information in explaining these differences.
Second, the lone external member (Ravindra Dholakia) who favoured the shift in stance is perhaps the most dovish MPC member. He was exceptionally upbeat about inflation, including the core component, according to the October minutes: “I do not see major risk to inflation if the output gap closes fast.”
Third, there is a misguided celebratory tone about the Centre’s budget and fiscal dynamics. While the budget showed a welcome restraint and had more positives than negatives, it is perhaps only in India that the government can miss the fiscal deficit target twice in three years but still be complimented for fiscal discipline!
Fourth, a related point, there is little concern about the deteriorating consolidated (Centre + states) fiscal picture. This is likely to remain under pressure because of worsening state finances. What matters for monetary policy is the consolidated fiscal position, not just the Centre’s fiscal dynamics. Only one member (Dholakia) mentioned the issue of state finances but the outlook was conspicuously absent.
Fifth, deputy governor Viral Acharya’s (first MPC meeting) insightful comments clarified the rate decision was a tough one for him and heavily influenced by external factors. This was because of the difficulty in resolving the trade-off between output gap and the persistent nature of core inflation. However, the services-led persistence in core inflation despite the manufacturing-driven low capacity utilization isn’t new, and it certainly didn’t prevent the MPC from cutting rates in October. Additionally, external concerns (eg. the fallout from Trump’s policies) existed in December as well when the accommodative stance was reiterated.
Finally, there is a missing focus on the adverse implications for monetary policy from the elusive investment recovery contributing to lowering the potential output while fiscal policy boosts consumption. This will affect how quickly the output gap closes, which in turn will affect the ability to achieve the ambitious inflation target of 4%.
The MPC must improve its communication by better appreciating the fallout from its inconsistent action-guidance mix across reviews. As a humble beginning, the central bank should explain why it has stopped uploading, beginning October, the recording and transcripts of the post-policy call with researchers. It has still not offered any explanation for this retrograde step. The RBI should walk its talk on transparency and accountability.

Battling superbugs with Big Data India, sitting at the cusp of a digital revolution, is well placed to address the antibiotic resistance problem

Antibiotics that once cured ailments across the spectrum are now turning into a potential source of prolonged illness, disability and death. The world is transitioning to a post-antibiotic era where common infections and minor injuries will begin to kill, thanks to increasing antibiotic resistance (ABR). In 2015, such resistance was identified as the cause for about 23,000 deaths annually in the US and about 25,000 such deaths in Europe. While accurate data on the incidence of antibiotic resistance in India is unavailable, the highest number of deaths caused by resistant pathogens passed on to newly born babies from mothers or the environment—approximately 58,000—was in our region.
Though ABR in certain cases occurs through the natural evolution of resistance in bacterial pathogens, the rising consumption of antibiotics is a major contributor. Topping this, the New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase (NDM) enzyme, which makes bacteria resistant to beta-lactam antibiotics, is now present globally. This indicates free movement of ABR across boundaries, with serious consequences. This is nowhere as stark as in India. Our large population is often blamed for the widespread dissemination of a higher number of resistant pathogens, commonly called superbugs. However, it is the interplay of domestic factors such as a weak public health system, cheap antibiotics available in the market, and their unregulated use, that has created ideal conditions for superbugs.
Prescription of antibiotics for a variety of diarrhoeal and respiratory infections despite their limited curative potential has exacerbated the situation. Poor regulation of pharmacies and licensing out several pharmacies to a single pharmacist introduces a large number of unqualified personnel into the supply chain. New virtual marketplaces have made the entire drug distribution process an opportunity for unchecked financial gains by irresponsible actors. The lack of awareness among patients regarding the appropriate use of antibiotics has led to self-medication and non-adherence to the prescribed course of antibiotics, further intensifying the problem.
The dramatic increase in prevalence of superbugs and the dearth of new antibiotics in the market is a warning signal for India. The absence of a good statistical model to show the relationship between antibiotic consumption and associated resistance makes it difficult to frame usage guidelines for these antibiotics. This in large measure explains the absence of any great success even post the Chennai declaration of 2012. To meet the obligations of this declaration, the National Programme on Containment of Antimicrobial Resistance was launched under the 12th Five-year Plan. A core objective was the generation of quality data from 30 laboratories on antimicrobial resistance of pathogens posing a grave public health risk. Though meant to be completed within 2017, only 10 labs have so far been brought within the data-gathering exercise.
Tackling the superbug problem requires massive data collection and analysis. Well-designed studies and indicator surveys providing general insight into the situation are critical to begin with. While studies can provide a clearer picture of the prescribed doses of antibiotics and their pattern of use (including the why, when, where, and for what relating to antibiotic consumption), indicator surveys can attempt to identify the health outcomes emerging from the use of such antibiotics for different ailments. Frequently repeated surveys, with their range expanded to track geographic and demographic representative data, are a policy imperative if India wants to build comprehensive indicators of ABR.
But tracking the data is not in itself of great use unless the health departments of the Central and state governments work in coordination with nodal bodies in the technology space to develop an information-sharing grid. The grid should also have smart data-mining solutions built into it. The virtuous loop of integration of data from various public and privately operated hospitals, pharmacies, and drug procurement services across the country, data analytics to track the correlation between antibiotic consumption and induced drug resistance, and robust information sharing with the public and health authorities is the right approach moving forward. Molecular biologists should be consulted for their insights on the genetic and molecular mechanisms responsible for such resistance.
ABR can be handled successfully once efforts are directed to establish efficient data-mining techniques and a team of specialists is trained to translate this research into useful clinical practice. The database created can certainly help in unravelling the hidden relations between antibiotic use and its associated resistance. Access to this online database can help physicians track ABR patterns; predict health outcomes; and prescribe drugs suitable for patient needs. It will not only help in improving clinical outcomes but also facilitate the deployment of computational and statistical models to accurately predict epidemics. This can aid local health bodies in issuing warnings and controlling the outbreak of infection. The scope of research can be expanded further with new hospitals, clinics and pharmacies joining the network. Big Data and analytics promise a significant step towards personalized medicine. India, sitting at the cusp of a digital revolution, is well placed to integrate such solutions with public health management and address the ABR problem.

Can the government solve all our problems?

Can the government solve all our problems?

When it comes to problems that are caused by individual action in a private space, the role of the government as a solution provider is very minimal 
Violence against women is rising. Very few individuals pay income tax. Alcoholism seems to affect more and more people. Problems around us are on the increase. The big question is, who is primarily responsible for solving these problems?
Thanks to India’s socialist beginnings, the belief that the government is responsible for taking care of all aspects of its citizens’ lives is strongly embedded in almost every Indian’s mind. So when it comes to solving the problems in our society, from keeping garbage off our roads to mitigating the problem of child trafficking, we assume that the government alone is responsible for solving these problems.
All the problems in our society are not alike. When it comes to a problem like terrorism, there is no doubt the government is best equipped to solve the problem. When it comes to mitigating the problem of sexual molestation of children, can the government be accused of inaction?
The problems that we encounter can be plotted along two continuums. One continuum is about problems that occur in one’s personal space to problems that occur in public places.
The other continuum is about problems that happen because of individual action to those problems that happen because of group action. Based on this construct, the problems around us can be classified as those occurring because of individual action in private spaces (example: marital infidelity), individual action in public places (example: open defecation), group action in a personal space (example: honour killing), and group action in public places (example: spread of communicable diseases)
The state has a significant role to play in solving problems that occur in public places, and involve a group of people. But when it comes to problems like sexual violence, not filing tax returns, obesity, etc., that are caused by individual action in a private space, the role of the government as a solution provider is very minimal.
But due to our inherent tendency to lean on the government for everything, we expect the state to solve these problems too.
Alcoholism is a problem that occurs predominantly because of an individual’s action. Certain aspects of the problem—purchasing the product, and, to some extent, the consumption of the product—might happen in public places. But without realizing that alcoholism is predominantly an individual’s problem, governments are trying to solve the problem.
Governments do what they can. They prohibit or control the sale and consumption of liquor in public places. Across the world, what this has done is to push the purchase and consumption of alcohol into private spaces where the enforcement of law is difficult.
Managing several other personal problems has become complicated because the action in question is harmless and at times is considered good in the short term. For example, one cannot find fault with someone eating a chocolate. The action gets the “problem” tag only when the person overeats chocolate every day and combines this action with inaction—not doing enough physical exercise.
Do we expect the government to pass a legislation that prescribes the amount of chocolates one can eat every day or do we expect the government to enforce fines on people who do not exercise every day?
The truth is that the government cannot do much to solve problems caused by the individual in his personal space. The only person who can do anything about solving these type of problems is the individual himself.
How does one develop solutions to these problems?
First, we need to understand the contours of the problem well. Since the problem occurs in one’s personal space, it is not easy to study such behaviour. Studies show that in the cases of sexual exploitation of children, in more than 90% of the cases, the perpetrator is a close relative of the child. In the absence of an effective mechanism to go deep into the recesses of the problem and understand why a close relative could engage in such ignoble acts, we do what comes to us easily—ignore the problem.
Only when we understand why he does what he does can we develop interventions to effectively protect our children. To develop effective solutions, we should also be able to understand the deep emotional wounds the crime creates in the victim.
Developments in the fields of cognitive neuroscience and behavioural economics are now helping us to have a better understanding of the problems that occur due to individual action in personal spaces.
Many of the problems occur because of deficiencies and biases in the human brain. For example, the human brain has great difficulty in foreseeing the consequences of one’s action in the future, more so if the present action is seen as insignificant to the gravity of the problem. Before a person throws a plastic bag into a gutter, he cannot visualize how this act could contribute to global warming.
Another surprising facet about human behaviour is that anonymity of any kind reduces the sense of personal accountability and civic responsibility for one’s actions. In the assurance of an anonymous context, the Lucifer in all of us does surface.
Understanding these and other vagaries of the human brain reminds us that managing an individual’s action in a personal space is not an easy task.
Don’t expect much help from government on this front.

Successful Test Firing of AAD Endo-Atmospheric Interceptor Missile

Successful Test Firing of AAD Endo-Atmospheric Interceptor Missile
DRDO conducted the successful launch of the interceptor missile Advanced Area Defence (AAD) at 1015 hrs today from Abdul Kalam Island, Odisha. The endo-atmospheric missile, capable of intercepting incoming targets at an altitude of 15 to 25 kms successfully destroyed the incoming missile. All the mission objectives were successfully met.
The weapon system radars tracked the target and provided the initial guidance to the interceptor which could precisely home on to the target and destroyed it in endo-atmospheric layer. The complete event including the engagement and destruction was tracked by a number of electro-optical tracking systems using infrared imagery. Radars and telemetry stations tracked the target and the interceptor till the destruction of the target. The launch has proved the Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) prowess of the country.

Artists Shri Subodh Gupta and Smt. Bharti Kher to stay in Rashtrapati Bhavan as Artists In-Residence


Artists Shri Subodh Gupta and Smt. Bharti Kher will commence their stay in Rashtrapati Bhavan as Artists In-Residence tomorrow (March 2, 2017). They will be in residence till March 10, 2017.

Shri Subodh Gupta was born in 1964 in Khagaul, Bihar and studied at the College of Art, Patna (1983-1988). He is known for working with everyday objects, such as steel kitchen utensils. While stainless steel is his signature medium, he has also masterfully executed works in bronze, marble, brass and wood. His works have been exhibited in prestigious museums, art fairs and biennales throughout the world. Solo exhibitions of his work have been held in some of the most internationally renowned museums and galleries, including National Gallery of Modern Art (New Delhi), Museum für Moderne Kunst (Frankfurt), Victoria and Albert Museum (London), Hauser & Wirth (London, Zurich, New York and Somerset), Arario (Seoul and Beijing), Pinchuk Art Centre (Kiev) and Galeria Continua (San Gimignano, Italy). He was awarded the Chevalier dans l’Ordre des Arts et des Letters, among the French government’s highest honors, for his contribution to contemporary art.

Smt. Bharti Kher born in 1969 in London is a leading Indian contemporary artist. She studied painting and design at Middlesex Polytechnic in London and then at Newcastle Polytechnic in Northern England. She is an artist committed to exploring cultural misinterpretations and social codes through her art practice. She uses the bindi as a central motif in her work to link tradition and modernity, East and West. Her famed installation, The Skin Speaks A Language Not Its Own (2006), features a life-size elephant made with fiberglass and covered with numerous white bindis, kneeling on the floor in an ambiguous state between dying and living. In her sculptures and collages, Smt. Kher has created hybrid beings that unite contradictions of gender, species, race, and social role. Sculptures such as Arione (2004) and Arione’s Sister (2006) are part-human, part-animal; sperm-shaped bindis writhe over their bodies, completing the vision of a futuristic femininity. She has been exhibiting internationally for more than two decades. Her most recent shows include the ones at the Vancouver Art Museum (Vancouver), Freud Museum (London), Rockbund Art Museum (Shanghai), 20th Biennale of Sydney (Sydney), Guggenheim Abu Dhabi (Abu Dhabi), Centre Pompidou (Paris). She is the chairperson and founding member of Khoj International Artists Association. She was also an artistic advisory for the Kochi-Muziris Biennale 2016 and is an executive committee member for Jawahar Kala Kendra Museum, Jaipur. She was awarded the Chevalier dans l’Ordre des Arts et des Lettres in 2015.

The ‘In-Residence’ programme in Rashtrapati Bhavan was launched by the President of India on December 11, 2013 with the aim of providing writers and artists an opportunity to stay in Rashtrapati Bhavan and be a part of the life of Rashtrapati Bhavan. The Programme seeks to provide an environment which will inspire creative thinking and rejuvenate artistic impulses. It is intended to honour and recognize eminent and established artists and writers as well as encourage young upcoming talent from different parts of the country.

Prominent Artists In-Residence who have stayed in the Rashtrapati Bhavan under this programme so far include Shri Jogen Chowdhary, MP (Rajya Sabha), Shri Paresh Maity, Smt. Jayasri Burman and Mr. Shahabuddin Ahmed of Bangladesh.

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UKPCS2012 FINAL RESULT SAMVEG IAS DEHRADUN

    Heartfelt congratulations to all my dear student .this was outstanding performance .this was possible due to ...